Andy Timm
@Andy_Timm
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Data scientist @ Grow Progress, testing Dem ads. Usually thinking about methods for survey weighting, efficient causal inference, or scalable Bayes.
New York, NY
Joined April 2011
I don't care if you're the President of the United States, if you threaten to unlawfully go after one of our neighbors, you're picking a fight with 20 million New Yorkers — starting with me.
Trump threatens to arrest Mamdani and then adds, "a lot of people are saying he's here illegally"
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I am honestly amazed by how horrible this bill is. it simultaneously: 1) explodes the federal deficit 2)cuts taxes for millionaires 3) decimates Medicaid and rural hospitals 4) destroys American energy production it’s literally the worst bill of all time
This bill will create a 500 Gigawatt shortage of electricity and increase prices.
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A lot of words to still imply that Zohran hasn't condemned anti-Semitism and not endorse Zohran @bradlander your time is now
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New high bar for book collection: do you have so many books it’s a structural concern for your home? May we all reach this level of book accumulation in our lifetimes, an inspiration.
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Tough news for those of us rooting for his eminence cardinal pizzaballa solely based on the name…
Who's the most liberal or conservative cardinal? It's a hard question to answer, but thanks to https://t.co/PvtbKUi3Ra, I was able to perform some ideal point estimation. The procedure was relatively simple. I took all positions tracked and coded them as 3 if the cardinal was in
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Anyone know of LLM benchmarks that get at the type of thing Sonnet lost from 3.5 > 3.7? Not sure of quite the word for the vibe I have in mind (and there are a bunch of dimensions of this), but ~ promptability? The type of thing that makes models less effortful to prompt well
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@nayibbukele @joshgerstein JUST IN: Sen. Van Hollen says he is going to El Salvador tomorrow to see if he can talk to Abrego Garcia.
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This is why we have democracy, courts, judges, the rule of law - because without it, the dictator gets to say "we made a mistake, but no, we won't fix it" and there's nothing anyone can do.
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Bone chilling. A court ordered Kilmar Abrego Garcia to stay in the United States. The Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that he was illegally removed. Trump is pretending he won the ruling 9-0. 1/ You may not think this case means anything to you. But let me tell you why it does.
Trump: The supreme court, it was 9-0? Miller: In our favor, against the district court ruling, saying no district court has the power to compel the foreign policy
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Trump take GPU
Update: Trump said today semiconductor tariffs are coming, so don’t expect gpu tariffs to be rolled back. Will cost ai companies billions, and chip buildout in the U.S. will get way more expensive too. TSMC’s $100b will buy a lot less SME, steel, and aluminum for AZ post tariff
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Seems like a bad vision for what the party could be right now? Bad policy is bad policy, we shouldn’t pretend otherwise
For today's Democratic Daily Download: meet @RepDeluzio from Western PA. He explains how Trump's trade policy has been a chaotic mess, but that tariffs—if done right and paired with strong pro-worker and industrial policies—can help supercharge manufacturing. We're offering
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Make sure to send this to your conservative gamer relatives :)
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just a reminder that a small group of republicans in Congress could put an end to this insanity at any moment and yet they all choose not to they’d rather tank your 401k and increase grocery prices than go against Trump
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Breaking: Dow Futures drops 1,230 points, or nearly 2.9%.
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Revealed preferences theory suggests that Wall Street executives value their ability to call their subordinates gay at approximately 8 trillion dollars
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Ok surely not lmao
This might be the first large-scale application of AI technology to geopolitics.. 4o, o3 high, Gemini 2.5 pro, Claude 3.7, Grok all give the same answer to the question on how to impose tariffs easily.
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Republicans did indeed surpass roughly a quarter Bloomberg, with roughly a $34 CPV, which is ~25.6% of Bloomberg’s legendary 2020 money immolation performance!
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Getting excited to calculate a CPV for Elon and the rest of the Republican ecosystem tomorrow :) Will Elon/R's surpass a quarter Bloomberg? Rough napkin math says maybe!
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