When the Soviets left the Afghan government lasted 3 years before falling. This government may not even last 3 months. The US designed the Afghan state to meet Washington's counterterrorism interests, not the interests of Afghans, and what we see today is the result
Over a six week period in 2002, the US tried to kill Taliban warlord Jalaluddin Haqqani. They failed, but managed to flatten an entire village, destroy 37 other homes, and kill 159 civilians in the process
What’s the relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan? The reality is more complicated than the view that the TB are simply Pakistan’s puppets (as Kabul claims) or that they are completely independent (as Pakistan claims) 🧵🧵 1/n
Yes and not just 3. I’ve visited many villages that are effectively erased. And some villages are intact but completely empty of people, because everyone fled the violence
As it happens, the US wiped 3 Afghan villages off the face of the earth in 2010. They were called Tarek Kolache, Khosrow Sofia and Lower Babur. These are the details of a 20-year war that don’t get remembered, let alone discussed. This barbarism was not hypothetical. It was fact.
You forgot a few results:
-no more airstrikes slamming into people's homes
-no more roadside bombs tearing limbs from bodies
-no more destroyed and evacuated villages
Sometimes the real world is complicated
In many respects,
#Afghanistan
represents the 1st real implementation of the "ending forever wars" doctrine.
The results so far?
- Crumbling of a democratic government;
-
#Taliban
rule;
-
#AlQaeda
ecstatic;
- Emergency mass evacuation;
- Unprecedented transatlantic divisions.
The amount of fake news and outright propaganda coming out of Afghanistan right now is extraordinary. 👇
Good rule of thumb at this point is to disregard anything that isn't reported firsthand by someone on the ground
By striking this dam the US could have killed tens of thousands of people and flooded hundreds of villages. The only reason this didn't happen is because the bomb failed to explode and because of the heroic efforts of Syrian engineers
NEW:
Syria's largest dam was on a no-strike list. Military engineers warned that hitting it with an airstrike could cause tens of thousands of civilian deaths.
But a top secret U.S. Special Operations unit struck it anyway.
The story of the Tabqa Dam:
There’s plenty Pak should be blamed for—the ISI has treated Afghans as cannon fodder for its own political aims for four decades. But so too has the US and the Soviet Union. And right now, it’s time for the Western powers and their proxies to take a hard look in the mirror. /end
The US, on the other hand, created the Afghan government, brought its warlords into the country, and funded and armed them. The Kabul ruling class is therefore ultimately beholden to its patrons and not to its constituents. Therein lies the difference between the two sides. 13/
Some background, if you're just tuning in: The Taliban and ISKP (ISIS) have been at war. Last year, the US even teamed up with the Taliban to fight ISKP
by
@wesleysmorgan
“You know what the most interesting thing is?” he says. “Nobody doubted me. I was just tweeting what the Taliban are already really thinking.”
via
@TheNationalNews
Then the US and proxies waged a one-sided war against rural afghans in the name of “counterterrorism.” They killed/imprisoned many innocent people. They hounded retired Taliban, forcing them to flee to Pakistan. By 2004, this led to the revival of the Taliban as an insurgency. 4
So, in sum, Pak did not create the Afghan insurgency, which was an indigenous response to failings of the post-2001 order. Pak tried to manipulate this insurgency in its interests, sometimes with success, sometimes not. 12/
And how did Mullah Zakir end up in Guantanamo? He wasn't captured in a fight or in some rathole. He surrendered on the promise of amnesty--another example of how TB leaders were surrendering right and left in 2001
However, seeing the US install an India-friendly northern alliance-dominated government in Kabul made the Pak mil second guess its Afghan policy. But—at this point—there was nothing they could do about it. 3/
Watch this heartbreaking footage of a Syrian family in the ambulance. They were pulled from the rubble following yesterday’s heavy Russian airstrikes on Maʿarrat al-Nuʿmān. I can’t even imagine, the things this father is going through right now.
After 9/11, the Pak military establishment was closely aligned with US aims. They arrested several high ranking Taliban leaders on Pakistani soil and handed them over to the US /2
The Taliban insurgency was therefore an entirely endogenous reaction to US/afghan govt repression. Once reconstituted, Pakistan sought to exert influence over the movement by sheltering its top leaders. 5/
Over the years, this leverage became a major source of consternation within the Taliban. I’ve never met a Taliban member who hasn’t hated and resented the ISI, while also being quite afraid of them. 7/
This past weekend, I re-read “No Good Men Among the Living: America, the Taliban, and the War through Afghan Eyes” by
@Anand_Gopal_
for the 2nd time.
What an amazing and insightful book. Here is one of the most eye-opening things I learned from it: 🧵
But that influence was rarely tactical. Nor did Pakistan arm or fund the movement. Instead, Pak tried to influence TB policy by pressuring top leaders. When leaders went against Pak wishes, Pak imprisoned them. Examples include Mullah Beradar and Mullah Obaidullah. 6/
It is reported that in the last 72 hours not a single person has died due to war in
#Afghanistan
~ which was unimaginable a few weeks ago when there was daily casualties. The Afghan people have suffered enough war and conflict. May peace prevail ✌️
The US wanted to wage a forever war and then pretend that this wouldn’t destroy the lives of tens of thousands of people. Read this essential investigation by
@AzmatZahra
Airstrikes allowed America to wage war with minimal risk to its troops. But for civilians on the ground, they brought terror and tragedy. Read Part 2 of the Civilian Casualty Files in
@NYTMag
.
So in other words, today the movement is being run out of Helmand as much as it is out of Quetta. This means that Pakistan has less leverage over the Taliban than it ever has. 11/
Saddar Ibrahim, deputy head of mil commission, is the real overall commander of the movement. He's probably the most powerful person in A'stan today. He was imprisoned by Pak. Same with the late Mullah Manan, former TB gov of Helmand. After release, both moved to Helmand. 9/
The Taliban is far less dependent on Pakistan than the afghan government is on their patrons. For better or worse, the Taliban is the most self reliant force in the country
Those placing the blame for what’s happening in
#Afghanistan
solely on
#Pakistan
are missing a few key facts:
1. The
#Taliban
are largely financially self-reliant (as I described here: ) 1/2
From Helmand, they have built a power base that is far less reliant on Pakistan (but now somewhat reliant on Iran). Over the years, the ISI has pressured various Taliban leaders to travel to Helmand to try to bring these figures back into the fold, but without success. 10/
In recent years, the Taliban has sought to carve out more independence. The opening of the Doha office was an important step. Also important was the emergence of Helmand as the de facto capital of the movement. 8/
New: Treasury cuts off Taliban from billions in Afghan government funds stored in US, following talks w/ WH & State Dep't, per sources
Critical choices loom for Yellen over sanctions that could block int'l humanitarian aid relied on by ~1/2 of Afghans
Manan killed in Afghanistan. Osmani killed in Afghanistan. Dadullah killed in Afghanistan. Obviously, the Taliban is a Pakistani proxy, but reality is also messier than simple narratives. When you only have a hammer, all you see are nails.
Osama bin Laden killed in Pakistan. Mullah Mansour killed in Pakistan. Numerous Taliban leaders, including multiple Haqqani commanders, killed in Pakistan. The Quetta, Peshawar & Miramshah shuras... But we're supposed to believe Mullah Omar never stepped foot inside Pakistan.
the root of the US military's reliance on air power is 1) extreme aversion to casualties, in what are fundamentally unpopular wars 2) the fact that advanced weapons systems are big business, even if they are tactically not optimal
All 30k people of Saraqib fled the regime assault. Every man, woman, and child. The city is now empty. But islamophobes and random internet trolls like this one think they are all terrorists who deserve to die.
This al-Qaeda-occupied hellscape in Idlib, where genocidal anti-Shia messages are plastered on billboards, was described by the New Yorker and its Trotskyite writer
@Anand_Gopal_
as "Syria's Last Bastion of Freedom"
The propaganda is mind-blowingly insane
Can’t let this get lost: the next US Secretary of State
@ABlinken
is a new dad. It will be inspiring for working parents everywhere to see America’s top diplomat in action as he also helps raise two toddlers. Thanks to Tony & the incomparable Evan Ryan for their family sacrifice.
Reading comprehension may not be your strong suit, but the point of the article is to critique the way the US uses the legal designation of “war crime” to legitimize war
A masterclass in US war crimes apologia from
@Anand_Gopal_
in the New Yorker: “unlike Russia, America does not bomb indiscriminately. The U.S. razed an entire city [Raqqa], killing thousands in the process, without committing a single obvious war crime.” ()
Today the people of Manbij are carrying out a general strike to protest the Syrian regime's potential entry into the town following the US withdrawal. Most of the city is shuttered. To put this strike in context, here is a thread on the history of resistance in this town. (1/n)
one big difference between the Soviets and the US was the latter's almost total reliance on air power, which they passed onto their proxies. Once the ANDSF lost the backing of US airpower, they lost all morale
About a month after this video was taken, Assad forces stormed the town. They went house to house, burning people alive, raping women. I showed up the next day to find charred bodies
Taftanaz, March 2012, a year into the Syrian uprising, a year during which protesters were shot, killed, towns besieged and thousands arrested & tortured. They dance & sing: "your days are numbered, oh donkey, you're falling, falling. Bashar"
Recent Afghanistan coverage is pretty problematic, imo. Many journalists and analysts focus on Taliban gains and the Afghanization of war while withdrawing troops are portrayed as the "good forces" who should have saved the country. Truth is many of them are war criminals.
1.Har talt med flere talibanere fra det østlige Afghanistan. De fortæller, at der er gnidninger mellem dem og dem fra syd, Kandahar og Helmand, fordi de sidstnævnte ikke vil have, at kvinder og store piger skal uddanne sig.
One of Afghanistan's largest and most anti-Taliban cities has fallen. The only hope now is that the Kabul leadership negotiate a peaceful surrender and avoid the bloodshed of urban warfare
I can’t understand how a force of over 300000, with annual budget of 3-4 billion$$$, equipped with humvees, MSFVs, helicopters, A-29 fighters, and advanced weapons is crumbling so quickly & so easily? An entire army corps surrendered to the Taliban in Kunduz today, WaPo reports.
But the US has outsourced almost all its violence to aircraft and proxies, thereby transferring all the risk to civilians. That’s because the US doesn’t want body bags coming back home. It wants to keep the reality of the forever war from American living rooms and TV sets
We have 3 flights. We managed to get 900 seats for at risk Afghans. The fundraising effort was tremendous. Now we can’t get them through Taliban & US checkpoints to kabul airport. I’ve pulled every contact
These planes are gonna land in kabul & leave mostly empty.
Soul crushing
The idea that you can run real polling in the middle of a brutal war (where people are terrified to speak their mind to strangers) is one of the favored myths of the pro-war Afghan (and American) elite.
.
@saadmohseni
: "The Taliban's approval rating has never gone about 11 or 12%. So for a lot of Afghans, the frustrating thing is that this peace deal is being imposed on us, and I think most Afghans agree that yes, we have to have peace, but it has to be a just peace."
Sherzai was closely allied with us special forces and responsible for the deaths of many innocent people. The Taliban’s revival in Kandahar is largely due to him and the special forces
We have almost 6,000 of America’s finest fighting at the Kabul airport.
They are putting their lives on the line in a dangerous place.
I talk to our commander there every day and I have made it clear: we will get them whatever they need to do the job.
The simpler truth is: Obama/bush could have ended this war had they wanted to, but they faced no political cost to continue in perpetuity. Dead afghans are irrelevant in DC. It’s a damning indictment of the centrist FP establishment that it took Trump to get to this point
#RebelRulers
came out ten years ago this month. Amazing to think how much resistance it faced and how vast the field of
#rebelgovernance
has become since. Grateful to those who supported me along the way and to those who continue to advance the field.
Our story follows the attempts of one airstrike survivor, Basim Razzo, to get justice. You can hear from Basim himself in this arresting podcast from The Daily, produced by
@nniebrown
and hosted by
@mikiebarb
JOB alert: I'm involved in a number of exciting research projects on Syria, and we are looking to hire a Syrian researcher. Ideally based in Turkey or Leb. Should have excellent interview and research skills. DM me if interested
Today, Qatar FM met Mullah Barader and asked him to de-escalate and agree to a ceasefire, to contribute to efforts aimed at speeding up the process aimed at reaching a comprehensive political resolution that guarantees a prosperous future for Afghanistan's government and people.
The Syrian regime is now on the outskirts of the city. Today's strike is an avowed rejection of Assad's return, but also evidence that whatever was awakened in 2011 has yet to be fully extinguished. /end
Taliban sources say that Mullah Shireen, a former close aide of Mullah Omar, has been appointed as Kabul governor. Shireen has served as chief of the Taliban military commission and guard of Mullah Omar.
@AnneSilver
@democracynow
In the 2nd half of the interview I said things about Syria that they apparently didn’t like, so I don’t think they will air it
The real test will be in non-health related fields. The fact that other ministries haven’t issued a similar statement is further indication that the Taliban have changed very little
"All female employees of the Ministry of Public Health both in provinces and the capital are informed to resume their jobs (in a) regular manner. The Islamic Emirate has no issue with their resumption of jobs," tweeted Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen quoting Zabihullah Mujahid.
Say for sake of argument that it was up to America to capture this dam (which is contestable). If so, there was a third option — use only ground forces. That would have put many more US personnel in danger, but would have been far more likely to spare civilians.
US military officials present this type of incident as a tragic dilemma between two terrible choices: 1) allow a horrific organization to control this dam or 2) bomb the dam. But that’s false dilemma