Bill Roggio
@billroggio
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Senior Fellow, @FDD Editor, @LongWarJournal Terrorism Analyst "Never let us be guilty of sacrificing any portion of truth on the altar of peace." - J.C.Ryle
South Jersey
Joined November 2008
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Last Seen Profiles
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1) In October 2021, I was the first witness in Cabrera v. Iran, in which the families of American service members sued Iran for deaths & injuries incurred in Afghanistan by Iran’s support for the Taliban, Al Qaeda & other terror groups. Iran lost the case.
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U.S. military/intelligence leaders are directly responsible for the biggest intelligence failure since Tet in 1968. How did the Taliban plan, organize, position, and execute this massive offensive nation wide offensive under the noses of USMIL, CIA, DIA, NDS, ANDSF, etc.?
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The U.S. military has a very real predicament. It must now evacuate the embassy in Kabul, via Hamid Karzai International Airport. What happens when Afghans grasp the gravity of the situation, the airport is swarmed? This is why it needed to keep Bagram open.
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- Who opened the prisons to let out the Islamic State fighters? It was the Taliban. The same Taliban that
@POTUS
trusts to ensure the security of American citizens.
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There is no denying that the evacuation of U.S. personnel and citizens from Kabul's airport is chaotic and dangerous. Our soldiers on the ground have been given an impossible task and are executing it to the best of their abilities. Their leaders in Washington have failed them.
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1) This is an unpopular view (an argument I made from the beginning) that gets you branded as pro-Putin, but it needs to be understood. The inability to discuss the warfighting without the basest level of emotionalism is blinding us to what is happening.
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Here is your Saigon Moment.
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Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan is absolutely correct when he says "All wars are miscalculated, and no one knows where they lead to." And this is why Pakistan should dismantle every terrorist group in the country. They can spark an unforeseen war.
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1) Implications of the fall of Kherson.
The city of Kherson, with 300,000 people, is the largest to go under Russian control since the war began. The fact that it fell so quickly, with minimal fighting, is troubling and may have dire implications for the UKR govt.
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At first glance this may seem funny. Then, if you stop to think and realize that these are the guys you lost to, it isn't quite so funny anymore.
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Russian forces have surrounded the port city of Mariupol, which is on the Sea of Azov. Outside of Mariupol, the Russians now control all coastal areas of the Sea of Azov. Russia is strangling Ukraine's access to the seas. Also, Russian forces are linked from Crimea to Donetsk.
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Pentagon officials say Russian forces are not advancing on Kiev as fast as expected. Yet Russian forces are just miles from the center of the city. How fast did the Pentagon expect them to fight their way to Kiev, which approximately 90 miles from the Belarus border, in 2 days?
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These videos are stunning. This will shake the Israeli nation to the core. I am not sure Hamas, Palestinian Jihad, and other groups realize the implications of what they've done here. There is no going back for the Israelis, the public may never accept a two state solution.
Thread of videos showing Palestinian cruelties to Israeli civilians on Oct 7, 2023.
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Now that's a crackdown! Maulana Fazlur Rehman Khalil, the founder of the banned Harkat-ul Mujahideen who signed Al Qaeda/Osama bin Laden's 1998 fatwa against “Crusaders and Zionists," join the the PTI, the ruling political party of Imran Khan.
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The U.S. military and intelligence establishment convinced themselves the Taliban would negotiate, and the Taliban's military strategy was merely for "leverage" at the negotiating table. They couldn't grasp the fact that the Taliban might actually try taking the country by force.
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The Biden administration's policy in Kabul boils down to this: Let's trust terrorists (the Taliban) that uses suicide bombers to protect U.S. and Western evacuees from other terrorists (Islamic State) who use suicide bombers.
What can possibly go wrong? It just went wrong.
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If the Taliban coming into rocket/artillery range, the chaos and panic will be incalculable. This is why the evac of the embassy had to happen a month ago.
@SecBlinken
will own this one.
@StateDept
's insistence on keeping embassy open was wrong all along.
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This is especially fitting. The Taliban and Pakistan flags fly side-by-side at Spin Boldak border crossing in Kandahar.
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1) We hear a lot about Russia's tactical/strategic problems, advances/offensives, but very little about the Ukrainian military and its problems. The coverage has been largely one sided. This
@nytimes
article on the UKR 59th Brigade gives some insights.
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So.... former Pakistani Taliban Ehsanullah Ehsan, who, ahem, "escaped" Pakistani custody, may actually not be in Turkey, but is in Islamabad. I'm shocked, shocked...
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"Pakistan will not allow its soil to be used against anyone, says DG ISPR" ... unless it is the Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, al Qaeda ...
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Osama bin Laden killed in Pakistan. Mullah Mansour killed in Pakistan. Numerous Taliban leaders, including multiple Haqqani commanders, killed in Pakistan. The Quetta, Peshawar & Miramshah shuras... But we're supposed to believe Mullah Omar never stepped foot inside Pakistan.
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Map of Afghanistan's provinces and capitals, about 46 hours apart. Early Am Aug 13, and now. This is what collapse looks like.
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Now it is time to hide the evidence: “Biden officials recently directed federal agencies to scrub their websites of official reports detailing the $82.9 billion in military equipment and training provided to the Afghan security forces since 2001.”
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Hundreds of Americans, or more, are now trapped in Afghanistan, left to the predations of the Taliban. Not a single American general - not a member of
@CENTCOM
or
@thejointstaff
- stood up and said "Sir, we can't leave our countrymen behind. I won't participate." Without honor.
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China, which incarcerates up to 1 million Uighers in concentration camps merely because they are Muslims, still can't figure out if Jaish-e-Mohammad emir Massod Azhar is a terrorist. Make no mistake, if Azhar was a Chinese citizen, he would have been disappeared by now.
China has blocked the UNSC designation of Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad emir Massod Azhar since 2016. "China said it needed more time to examine the sanctions request..." Perhaps give it a couple more years and China can figure it out.
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1) The Ukrainian military is training young men for three days, and putting them on the front lines. There is just no way you can teach a person how to be a soldier in 3 days, and expect him to survive what is to come.
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This is more than a decade too late. The Bush & Obama admins knew what Soleimani and Muhandis were up to, but were too fearful to strike. These two are responsible for the deaths of at least 600 U.S. soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqis soldiers, police, and civilians.
U.S. kills Iran's Qods Force commander and Iraqi's deputy PMF leader in strike in Baghdad -
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Will the U.S. be able to rely on Afghan security forces to maintain a perimeter when it folded under the weight of the Taliban offensive? What happens if U.S. troops have to do the job? If the evacuation isn't done quickly, this can get real ugly, real fast.
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@CENTCOM
You do not need to be a West Point and War College grad, or a grand strategist to know this was a recipe for disaster. 2nd lieutenants know this plan is a dumpster fire. Our general officer class as a whole is rotten to the core and must be held accountable.
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1) Pakistan PM Imran Khan claims India will attempt 'false flag operation" and risks nuclear war. Does he remember attack on Indian Parliament, 2001; Mumbai 2008 by Pak proxies? Were these "false flags"?
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1) On Russia's attacks on civilians inside cities. This will be controversial, but here it is. I will use Kharkiv as the baseline. Short answer is so far this isn't a concerted effort to inflict mass casualties. To be clear, civilians have been killed. Here is what I am seeing.
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The Taliban claims it overran Bagram Air Base and freed prisoners. Many high value detainees were located there, including members of Al Qaeda. This will reverberate for years to come.
#عاجل:
د بګرام په هوایي اډه کې تر ټولو مهم زندان هم فتحه شو.
تازه معلومات ښیي چې له یاد زندان څخه ټول بندیان ازاد او مصئون ځای ته ولیږدول شول.
#عاجل:
زندان مهم در میدان هوایی بگرام نیز فتح گردید.
قرار معلومات تازه تمام محبوسین از زندان ازاد و به مکان مصئون انتقال داده شدند.
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The Russians are in the opening phase of their offensive, it is shaping the battlefield & preparing for the larger thrusts. The fact that the Russians have pushed to Kiev, Kharikov (admittedly closer to the border) & Kherson 2 days into the offensive should not be dismissed.
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Blowing up bridges is something you do when you are desperate to halt the enemy’s advance. It usually means you don’t plan on crossing it any time soon.
The bridge next to Irpin was blown up to stop the Russian forces from advancing on Kyiv. 🇺🇦
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Kandahar City is now Taliban controlled. Lashkar Gah is not far behind, if it isn't Taliban controlled right now. The situation is grave. Afghan forces have collapsed in the north, south, and west. Taliban can now focus on the east and the road to Kabul. This is close to endgame.
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@CENTCOM
I mentioned this earlier, but it bears repeating. You do not put your primary evacuation airstrip at an airport inside a city with 4.5 million people and an untold number of refugees. The U.S. military agreed to do this, and it owns what is now happening in Kabul.
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A question: Why is the U.S. Department of Defense giving daily press briefing on the military situation in Ukraine? The U.S. is not at war with Russia. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry is capable of holding its own press briefings.
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I suggest looking at a Google Earth map of Kabul. The airport is in the city. It is a short ride from the city center to the airport. There are neighborhoods near it. If you've been there, you know what I mean. If there is a press of Afghans to get out, it will get dangerous.
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I was struggling to organize my thoughts on
@POTUS
's shameful, callous, insensitive, inaccurate, and ridiculous speech, or "twaddle," and then
@WSJopinion
rode in and saved the day.
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The remnants of the Afghan National Army and other security forces continue to organize around the Panjshir resistance.
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-
@realDonaldTrump
's comments on Pakistan were harsh, & needed. Mentioning India after slamming Pak must have sent shockwaves to Islamabad.
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1) General Milley
@thejointstaff
keeps saying Afghanistan fell in 11 days. This is profoundly wrong. As I've documented, the final Taliban offensive began on May 1, more than 150 districts fell between then and Aug. 5, before the first provincial capital (Zaranj) fell.
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You have to love the logic of Pak PM Imran Khan. He says religion has nothing to do with terrorism (tell that to terror groups that need fatwas to justify attacks, etc.), but then says verbal attacks on the Prophet Mohammad leads to radicalization.
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Is anyone at
@StateDept
,,
@CENTCOM
,
@DeptofDefense
,
@thejointstaff
, etc. asking how the ISKP (Islamic State) getting rockets and mortar/mortar tubes, which aren't easy to hide, past those Taliban checkpoints in Kabul? Maybe they should ask their "Afghan partners," the Taliban.
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1) There is a very simple solution to the Shifa Hospital situation. Hamas fighters embedded there can save everyone and surrender unconditionally. Hamas is the one using the hospital as a base of operations, in violation of the laws of war.
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Remember when the Biden administration estimated that only 100 Americans were trapped in Afghanistan, then about 100 American got out, and there are still hundreds of American in Afghanistan? Good times.
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Here are some of the phrases I've heard used to describe the situation outside the Kabul airport from professionals directly involved with helping: "absolute chaos," "horrific," "absolute insanity," "a shitshow of the highest order." The rest are too graphic for this space.
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@CENTCOM
The Kabul evacuation fiasco should not be viewed in isolation. The general officers were complicit in the failure of Afghanistan at every step. Not understanding the enemy. Building the wrong ANDSF. The surge. Population Centric Counterinsurgency. Endorsing phony "peace process."
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CENTCOM commander should have insisted Bagram remain open. This should have been non-negotiable and he should have resigned in protest if he was forced to operate in this environment. Sometimes you need to stand up and have courage. Our commanders have none.
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In this op-ed at The Sunday Guardian, I argue that it is time to label Pakistan a State Sponsor of Terrorism and build closer ties with India to deal with the threat.
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This may seem cruel, but Israel is at war, and it would be insane to supply your enemy with food, fuel, electricity, etc. Hamas and Co. opened Pandora’s Box. Food, fuel and electricity won’t be coming out of the box.
Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant:"I have given an order - Gaza will be under complete closure. There will be no electricity, food or fuel [delivered to Gaza]. We are fighting barbaric [terrorists] and will respond accordingly."
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This is academic at this point. Taliban control at least 30 provinces and capitals.
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3) "As of the past weekend, in 24 days of conflict, Russia has flown some 1,400 strike sorties and delivered almost 1,000 missiles (by contrast, the United States flew more sorties and delivered more weapons in the first day of the 2003 Iraq war)."
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2) If - a big if - the Russians can administer the city with a light hand, provide food and aid to its people, and limit reprisals, it will set an example for other Ukrainian cities under seige or threat that surrender is an option. If other cities follow, UKR govt is in trouble.
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Kabul's airport is not secure, the U.S. military is operating in an extremely dangerous environment. One suicide bomber, one plane & the U.S. military has a massive crisis. Aside from U.S. casualties, it would have to to clear desperate Afghans from the tarmac, likely with force.
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In seven days, the denied Ukraine all of its costal areas on the Sea of Azov, and about half of the Black Sea. That is solid progress for 7 days of war, by any standard.
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For all who have commented, emailed, called, & texted words of thanks for what we at
@LongWarJournal
have done over the years, thank you for your support. We did our job to the best of our ability. If only those responsible for this debacle had done theirs. Hold them to account.
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Except Al Qaeda is in Afghanistan, its alliance with the Taliban is unbroken and is as strong as ever, and the UN described Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban's deputy emir as an Al Qaeda leader.
We went to Afghanistan almost 20 years ago with clear goals: get those who attacked us on September 11, 2001—and make sure al Qaeda could not use Afghanistan as a base from which to attack us again.
We did that—a decade ago.
Our mission was never supposed to be nation building.
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In 8 days, the Taliban took control of 16 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces and 18 of its provincial capitals. With the collapse of Ghazni and Logar, the path to Kabul is open. By
@LongWarJournal
This map keeps changing fast. Am working on a time lapse version, it is ... depressing.
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-
@USArmy
: "We own the night."
- Taliban: "We own your night vision goggles. And Afghanistan."
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From
@BBC
: "Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky condemned the West for its continued refusal to enforce a no-fly zone over his country. 'All the people who die will die because of you,' he said."
If things are going so well for UKR, why is Zelensky asking for a no-fly zone?
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"Human rights will be the center of our foreign policy." -
@POTUS
. Except in Afghanistan, where he doesn't care about human rights, and handed over the country to the Taliban.
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1) The Pentagon's assessment of the Russian offensive, which mirrors that of the Ukrainian military, is that it has "stalled." Given just how badly the Pentagon got Afghanistan and the Taliban, tell me again why the press should take the Pentagon accounts uncritically?
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India: Don't hold your breath. It's been 12 Years since the Mumbai attack, and Pakistan still refuses to hand of Sajid Mir. If it hasn't happened by now, it won't. This is why Pakistan should be listed as a state sponsor of terrorism.
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@nytimes
9) War is chaotic. Like, the Russians, the Ukrainian military is having planning, communications, and command and control issues, manpower and equipment losses, logistical problems, and such. We just aren't hearing about this because the coverage of this war is lopsided.
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The
@PentagonPresSec
doesn't want to discuss resistance in Panjshir because it would force him to recognize the fact that there are Afghans still willing to fight. Then he'd have to answer questions as to why the U.S. is not supporting
@AmrullahSaleh2
That would be awkward.
NEW:
@PentagonPresSec
declines to talk about reports of residual ANA hiding out and regrouping, and any potential U.S. support for them, particularly in Panjshir.
More on those reports here:
Attn:
@billroggio
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3) Additionally, the road to Odesa, the only remaining major port on the Black Sea under Ukrainian control, is now open. Russian troops can now focus on Odesa and Mykolaiv, which is north of Kherson. Russia will be essentially be in control of Ukraine's Black Sea infrastructure.
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Marine Lieutenant Colonel Stuart Scheller: "I am willing to throw it all away to say to my senior leaders, ‘I demand accountability'". He is relieved of command.
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Pakistan's Foreign Ministry: "Pakistan does not allow use of its territory against any country." My response is the map
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1) This letter, calling for a "Limited No-Fly Zone" in Ukraine is shocking, given who has signed it. Former generals & ambassadors, current heads or members of think tanks or foundations. People who understand that this would mean war with Russia.
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6) "I know it's hard ... to swallow that the carnage and destruction could be much worse than it is," says the DIA analyst. "But that's what the facts show. This suggests to me, at least, that Putin is not intentionally attacking civilians ..."
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4) If the Russians can secure Odesa and Mykolaiv, which is north of Kherson, Russian forces can begin a northward push to link up with forces near Kiev, which would cut the country in half.
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A question for this unnamed senior US defense official: when did "we" - the US military - enter the war?
And yet again, why is the Pentagon giving DAILY briefings on a war that it is not actively fighting?
Senior US defense official: “My goodness, here we are, Day 26 — they’re still, we still hold them a good 15 km northwest of Kyiv. Which is where they were last week. We still hold them about 30 km to the east of Kyiv, which is where they were last week when we talked before.”
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2) "If we merely convince ourselves that Russia is bombing indiscriminately, or [that] it is failing to inflict more harm because its personnel are not up to the task or because it is technically inept, then we are not seeing the real conflict."
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12) The fundamental problem the Ukrainian military faced from the very beginning is that it doesn't have enough forces to defend everything at once. The Russians have a numerical advantage and are willing to trade soldiers and hardware to achieve its objectives.
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1) This map, from
@BBC
, shows just how precarious the situation around Kiev is. If that Russian advance moving west links up with forces around the capital, it will be endgame for Kiev and Chernihiv, and all forces encircled within.
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The Taliban has appointed Mohammad Nabi Omari the governor of Khost. Nabi, a Haqqani Network leader, is a former GTMO detainee with close ties to Al Qaeda. He was a “member of a joint al Qaeda/Taliban ACM cell in Khost and was involved in attacks against US and Coalition forces.”
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1) Al Qaeda is decimated in Afghanistan." -
@POTUS
.
No, it isn't. This is a lie that Presidents Obama, Trump, and Biden have propagated for 11 years.
@thomasjoscelyn
& I have debunked this lie - and make no mistake, it is a lie.
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The Taliban's victory ensures that there is no Northern Alliance 2.0. The north has been denied. All of the country is in the grip of the Taliban, except Panjshir, which has the impossible task of holding out while surrounded on all sides.
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1) For all of you reporters who shamelessly shilled for the U.S. Taliban withdrawal deal, think about this: During the process,
@US4AfghanPeace
said that Pakistan was a true partner for peace. Today, Pakistan overturned the murder conviction of Omar Saeed Sheikh.
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I am not sure what is more disturbing:
@SecDef
Austin was in the ICU you for 3 days and didn’t tell anyone, or that no one actually noticed that he was missing.
He clearly isn’t in Biden’s inner circle.
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Best question from the
@POTUS
press conference that went unanswered:
"Why do you continue to trust the Taliban, Mr. President? Why do you continue to trust the Taliban?"
Kudos to you, sir.
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"KIA" indeed. To be clear, General Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff "approved" the proposal by
@CENTCOM
Gen. McKenzie & then
@USFOR_A
Gen. Miller to shut down Bagram and rely on Kabul airport. Hold them accountable. Milley and McKenzie should resign or be fired.
Milley on why they didn't keep Bagram airfield open:
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1) The fighting e between Russian & Ukrainian forces at a building at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant shows that the Russians have a plan to seize power infrastructure as a tool of control. The fact is the Russians could have easily destroyed it in fighting, but didn't.
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5) An operation of that magnitude will take time and resources. It is approximately 300 miles from Odesa to Kiev.
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@CENTCOM
it is worth adding to the list: "Government in a box." Downplaying Taliban-Al Qaeda ties. MOAB wet dreams. Failure to properly assess ANDSF combat power. Failure to recognize the Taliban's final offensive. Lying to the American public about "turning the corner" yearly.
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1) Many people are kvetching over the Taliban's new government. Dominated by Pashtuns & jihadists, few minorities, no women, etc. Shocking! This is what happens when you swallow the pabulum of the Taliban apologists. They assured you the Taliban would form an inclusive govt.
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2) First, the UN estimates 136 civilians killed in the first 6 days of fighting. Given that Russia has launched offensives on 5 fronts, and fighting has been ongoing for 6 days, this is not evidence of mass killing, but the opposite. The numbers would be low if tripled.
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It has been a dark, dark week and several months. The resistance in Panjshir, led by
@AmrullahSaleh2
, is a long shot by far, but it is Afghanistan's last best hope. It found a chink in the Taliban's armor and took control of 3 districts in Baghlan and 1 in Parwan.
Anti-Taliban resistance makes modest gains outside Panjshir -
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Collapse: In 8 days, the Taliban took control of 16 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces and 18 of its provincial capitals. I am working on getting the new provincial map out, this is all happening so fast.
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1) I wonder if
@nytimes
regrets running this op-ed by Sirajuddin Haqqani, titled "What We, the Taliban, Want" now that it is known that Sirajuddin was involved with sheltering Ayman al Zawahiri in Kabul, Afghanistan at the time Zawahiri was droned to death
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Let’s be honest. Joe Biden makes Jimmy Carter look like Ronald Reagan.
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The Taliban's army, on parade. Been seeing a lot of these videos. Oddly enough, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP or ISIS-K) just doesn't seem to be able to sneak a suicide bomber into one of these parades or any other Taliban event.
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1) This series of maps, from
@nytimes
, is further evidence of my assertion that the Russian military didn't just cobble together its offensive after the initial assault on Hostomel Airport failed. Maps show time lapse of the Kiev battlespace from Feb. 24 (D+0) to March 1.
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You want to talk about intelligence failures and failures of leadership? The U.S. military should have foreseen the problem of leaving Kabul as your evac point. I warned people about this. Bagram had to stay open.
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I'm seeing reports that the Taliban has entered the capitals of Wardak, Paktika, and possibly took control of Daykundi. If Wardak, Logar and Paktika, and Ghazni are under Taliban control, the Taliban can begin the assault of Kabul at any time of its choosing.
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1) Afghan National Army General Sami Sadat says Trump's 'peace deal,' Biden's precipitous withdrawal & endemic corruption in the government & military led to the collapse of Afghanistan.
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