3:10 Value
@310Value
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Business analyst. Tuitio fidei et obsequium pauperum. Not investment advice. 310value @gmail .com
Joined January 2017
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$edr.mc eDreams just reported cash EBITDA growth of 110% and is trades at a laughable 6.4x FY25E EBITDA. Here's an article on the opportunity.
eDreams: A Multi-Bagger Hiding in Plain Sight
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@WilliamBold2
@NinaSerafina
Some many in True Romance - Dennis Hopper, Gary Oldman, Val Kilmer....
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Short article on acquisition accounting and financial analysis. Enjoy.
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Good $BAM and $BN article.
Brookfield Asset Management: A Classic Special Situation
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@StarWars0nly
@jbdesign512
Felt like the live-action continuation of Rebels. I hope that sentiment remains throughout the show.
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Didn't expect to write another substack article so soon, but had some motivation this week. Likely won't do another for a while. Enjoy this one on $EQIX.
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We are committing suicide...
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1/x just finished
@Michael_Tobin_
’s book Lifting The Floor about the data center industry. Think a more entertaining version of Tubes, with some axe grinding.
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I wish all of portfolio companies had this chart in their presentations. $axta
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All, authored a primer on Archaea Energy, Landfill Gas, and its implications to waste haulers. $LFG, $GFL, $WCN, $WM, $RSG
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1/x) Taking a different view of $BN's SOTPs. It listed affiliates are worth $40.73 p/s., just more than the current stock price of $40.53. Net of debt, it's worth $30.15. Add in their GP interests and you are at $38. Add insurance an you are at $46.53.
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Stifel's report on $gfl has company talking about $1BCAD by 2025. Valuation is done on one year forward, so were are talking ~13 months. That's a 33.9% increase over the current NTM FCF. So, if it happens, shareholders are in for a 33.9% lift in 13 months holding mult. flat
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1/x) Some thoughts on $BN's spin of $BAM....First, that asset manager. Mgmt committed to CAD0.32, which is a 3.4% dividend yield. Their 5-year Fee Bearing Capital Growth estimate is 20% pa, with FRE (after-tax) growth at 18% pa. Trading at a 5.3% FRE (after-tax) yield.
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Just learned that my fist high school-aged mentee will graduate FSU this month with all A’s (save one B+). He’s a child of migrant farm workers. Nice to see education breaking the cycle of poverty.
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@futureformerJD
I helped several children of migrant farm workers into graduate business schools. Harvard, MIT, Columbia, Boston College, Kellogg, Michigan, UCLA, Stanford….
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Starting to get caught up from being out of office last week.....$GFL, this is a great slide......
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$BN $BNRE $BAM Using SOTP analysis, BN/BNRE are worth $55+ per share. This assumes a 10% discount to the trading value of $bam and mgmt's value for the property portfolio. To get to the current price, the property port. would need to be worth 12% of management's estimate.
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$HEI HEICO's history of under promising and over delivering in one chart....
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$EQIX, $INXN, $DLR Update to my data center access point market share spreadsheet. Added Tencent. Next time, I'll add CyrusOne.
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1) Updated my data center access point market share spreadsheet. $EQIX, $DLR, $COR, $CONE, $SWCH
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@ProjectLincoln
Oct 3, 2023, 7:13 PM
The GOP since 2016- 34 to 26 governorships
68 to 57 state legislative chambers
241 to 222 House seats
52 to 49 Senate seats
1 President to no President
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Decided to get my mind off the market by writing another blog post. h/t
@special_cheeese
for help on $dbrg.
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1) A Lesson for CEOs: How to Attract an Activist Investor Into Your Shareholder Base.
@Valvoline
$VVV
To start, have diverging between operational performance and share price performance.....
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From CalPERS' CIO's presentation at yesterday's board meeting. Good for $DBRG, $BAM, etc....
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1/x) Visited a $GFL landfill this week. Here's what I learned about their asset divestiture from talking to SS analyst and other investors. Most likely will sell a sub-scale Western US asset. Multiple buyer options including Private Co's. JPM likely picked as the banker.
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$gfl, $lfg, $wcn. Visited a landfill yesterday. Easy to see how the incremental roic is sky high. Landfill is 50 years old and has another 40 years of life. Also has a landfill gas to electricity operation. Below is hawk that is used to scare birds away.
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1/x As promised, here are my thoughts on eDreams' investor day. I'll post some slides below, re-ordered and with some thoughts. First off, I think it is extremely undervalued relative to comps......
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1) $HEI. We have 4k US employees....10% have between 750k and $1.5M in their 401(k) principally because of their gifts of Heico stock....40 to 50 have between $1.5M and $6.5M in their 401(k), principally in Heico stock. I'm not talking about senior executives...
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$WCN, $GFL Waste Connections CEO say that the landfill gas collection projects will have a payback quicker than 3 years. This jives with GFL's CEO's estimate of 40%+ IRRs for these projects.
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$RICK: some stuff in this article for RICK shareholders to ponder. What's the risk to being tied to human trafficking? They did have a Nola club shut down. Also, are you fine with the drug/drink that dancers take to make it through a day?
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$vvv It was a long time coming, but Valvoline finally sold off its lubricants business and opted to focus on its instant oil change business. Let the buybacks begin!
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Nice price action from $ADBE (+9.1%) and $CRM (26.04%). Just a quick reminder where all of that traffic passes through.......$EQIX
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Credit Suisse Downgrades $BN, $BNRE. Takes target price down from $42 to..........drum beat...........$41.
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$GFL CEO believes that their nascent landfill gas collection business is worth ~$3B to GFL. What does that mean for possible partner $RICE....
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Daily habits.
1) wake up early, hydrate.
2) workout one.
3) pray.
4) journal.
5) read 4-5 hours
6) workout two.
7) check LinkedIn to see if $tpl management has “open to work” on their profile pics.
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A little weekend reading on $TPL's Proxy.
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Here's some weekend reading on $DBRG....
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$BKNG acquires Etraveli for 1.63B EUR....eDreams is 2.3x eTraveli's size in flights (not to mention having a sub program).
That implies eDream's is worth ~30.00 EUR and it's trading for 7.57.
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1/x) $dbrg Some excerpts from Ganzi's recent fireside chat. First, data center valuations. Large hyperscale deployments w/ long, quality leases 5-6cap. Interconnected DCs 4.5-6 cap, with transactions in mid-20s EBITDA. Junky DCs 7-10 cap.
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Reminder, $pbt is a Permian royalty company with no employees, airplanes, lawsuits against shareholders, drama, conflicted board members, private investigators on retainer, or fat G&A. There's its two-year returns vs $tpl. $tpl management and board take note.
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New F1 hat for Christmas. Looks like it may become a limited edition.
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@TheCinesthetic
Passion of the Christ. There Be Dragons. Of Gods and Men. The Cardinal. The Song of Bernadette.
Subtle, but there.
Skyfall. Hail Caesar. Truman Show. LOTR Trilogy (extended versions), Magic in the Moonlight.
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1) $EQIX, $INXN, $COR, $DLR, $CONE, $SWCH updated data center access points for access points of various websites, networks, and cloud service providers
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1) $EQIX delivered 71st consecutive quarter of revenue growth...
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$CHE Chemed repurchased its largest one-quarter dollar amount of shares in its history and still has $92M of cash on the balance sheet. And by the way, the price they paid was slightly above today's price.
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1/x) $eqix delivered its 20th year of consecutive quarterly revenue growth - no down quarters in 80 consecutive quarters! That's the top among S&P 500 companies. And it did it by delivering 11% revenue growth.
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Is there anyone with more undeserved confidence than a macro economist?
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$BN sold 150 Ave des Champs-Elysees for Eur 1B, or 55k per meter.
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$EQIX Equinix is fairly steady Eddie, which can be a bit dull. On the other hand, there is something special about 73 consecutive quarters of revenue growth.....
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1/x Glass Lewis flipped on $tpl's Prop 4 on governance concerns - I've never seen something like this happen. Reasons: 1) TPL admits to having sufficient capital to meet obligations. 2) Don't need 6x shares for a 3/1 split. 3) M&A is true motive. 4) Mgmt.entrenchment tool.
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$GFL paying 8.5X post synergies using LTM, COVID impacted numbers, for assets that trade for 12.5x to 15x.
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Daughter of 3:10 catching her first waves. Happy Fourth of July.
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Here's some weekend reading on $dbrg. Enjoy.
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1) Updated Website Access Point Market Share, plus some new names. $EQIX, $INXN, $COR, $DLR, $CONE, $SWCH
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$APG trading at 23 FCF Yield of 7.8% (incls. conversion of both prefs, but not founders carry); FSV trades at 2.7%. EBITDA should grow ~12% in 23. Can get a nice return with no mult expansion. Imagine the return with more accrete acquisitions, stock repos, and mult expansion..
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Dear $TPL Independent Board Members: if you ever want to serve on another board again, do yourselves a favor and 1) end legal work on Prop. 4 and 2) remove HK’s and SV’s obligations under the shareholder agreement. Save your reputations before it is too late.
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3/x) I know two things about $bn. 1) I don't know what their carry and real estate are worth & 2) they aren't worth zero. The below assumes they get the accumulated carry, then fluctuates the realization of real estate values and target carry. This is cheap in every scenario.
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$tpl’s management hired the swat team of the Dallas sheriff’s department as security at their shareholder meeting. Maybe if you feel compelled to be protected from from your shareholders, there may be something wrong with your governance.
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$BAM Not afraid to take some action if they think something is undervalued....
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Will be an exciting couple of weeks with Berkshire this week and F1 next. CC:
@BillBrewsterTBB
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$fsv’s 11% organic growth and calling out specifically strong growth in the fire safety business is a nice read through for $apg.
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$GFL I think this is the first time I've seen OMG in a sell-side report...Hoffman's getting excited...
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Since CS died, I am the only SS analyst covering $tpl. My firm's investment banker used to work at the company and his former VP is now CFO. How do I ask this question, in the least offensive way, so my firm can get banking business when these fools do a dumb deal.
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1) $EQIX widening it's moat by increasing the number of cross connects.
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@SleepwellCap
Jack Daniel's. The only spirit in the world above a $25 average price point that sells more than 1mm cases a year.
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$che Here is a gem from Chemed's Q2 call. They don't "cut" costs. They re-engineer costs out of the system. Cutting costs yields short-term results at the expense of the long-term, while re-engineering allows for $che to capture the savings without hurting the business.
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Barcelona day 1: walked 24.6k steps. Saw some Gaudi. Did “due diligence” at Hermes. Found 2 boxes of 15 year old Davidoffs. Went to Spanish guitar concert. Ate good food.
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@nickgerli1
Condo inventory going up most due to higher insurance rates after surfside collapse and new reserve requirements causing spike in assessments. SF homes coming to market as insurance rates and property taxes on non homestead homes going up.
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@Post_Market
Saw one on the road. First thought was who the hell signed off on such a small bed?
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$CHE: Roto-Rooter had a hiccup in Q2, sending the stock down to $520. Issue is temporary. What do you think management, with a history of lumpy & large share repos, will do with $160M net cash on balance sheet and a large credit facility? Note, they repurchased in Q2 at $537.
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Spent a few hours reading at Barnes and Noble. Learned two things. 1) crox and Birkenstock likely ok given the number of young people wearing them. 2) old ladies will loudly discuss anything with no shame.
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