Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
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Complex Systems Physicist | President of @NECSI | coFounder @TheWHN
Joined February 2011
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I have been working on pandemic outbreaks for 15 years.
There is a misunderstanding of the difference between the response in much of the West, versus successful countries (including New Zealand and Australia).
Summarizing:
1.Reactive versus proactive and goal oriented.
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BREAKING: Coronvirus Outbreak. One week after Italy's national lockdown (8 days after the north), Italy has three days with same number of new cases. This means 5 days after lockdown cases leveled off, consistent with typical incubation period of 3-5 days. This is good news.
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BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak. Good news on multiple fronts
US today now at 23,373, yesterday at this time was 30,571. Also, over 5,000 new recovered yesterday
Italy, Spain and Iran steadily decreasing over more than a week. Italy and Spain have fewest deaths in over a week
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"I am not angry because the submarine was badly-made. I am angry because I live in a vastly larger pressure vessel being managed and maintained by the exact same people."
"a perfect microcosm of the problem with everything right now."
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I have lost my mother to COVID.
May her light shine bright forever in the places that truly matter.
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State of the Union: Testing was required to attend. 5 senators & congressmen tested positive and did not attend. They are telling children and workers to go to school and work without tests. So they take precautions for themselves they don't give others. That is just not OK. 1/
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New paper on Masks:
Some claim scientific studies show masks don’t work, or that surgical masks are as good as N95s. Just released paper shows this claim is false. Masks work, and N95 respirators give a much higher benefit than surgical masks.1/
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German Health Minister: Anyone who gets infected with corona more often runs the risk of developing an incurable immune deficiency.
Roughly 50 scientific papers showing this now.
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Shanghai just finished a 2 month lockdown. They went all out and stopped the pandemic using a dynamic zero covid strategy, including both lockdown and mass testing. People are out in the street celebrating. They can do so without risk of infection or long covid. 1/
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Zero Covid: 42 times fewer deaths and five times less contraction in GDP
"Paris, April 2, 2021: The Zero Covid strategy is by far the most effective way to fight the current pandemic.
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Four pandemic urgent news stories to keep up with:
1. Monkeypox
2. Hepatitis in children
3. Covid cases high and growing rapidly in the US
4. Economic harm of Long Covid
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Merchants of herd death oversold immunity. People are being reinfected immediately again after Omicron infection.
We have the data: Both laboratory experiments and actual cases.
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Important!
Share this article with everyone. It is outstanding
I will post excerpts
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You May Be Early, but You're Not Wrong: A Covid Reading List, by
@JessicaLexicus
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"Here are the key points:
1. You can catch Covid multiple times.
2. Reinfections are common, not rare.
3. Breakthrough infections are common.
4. Covid can kill you months after you recover.
5. It can cause brain damage.
6. It can cause blood clots and heart attacks.
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Extremely important paper on: Outcomes of Covid Reinfection
Compared to those with first infection, reinfection led to increased risk at 6 months of: mortality by 2.38%, hospitalization 9.5% and post covid medical events 19.6%.
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UK data: Omicron is as severe as Delta for cases that would be infected by Delta, and infects people who would not be infected by Delta (due to immunity of prior infection or vaccination). Those cases are less severe. By Simpsons paradox Omicron seems less severe, but is more. 1/
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When the virus is circulating in a vaccinated population, variants that are more rapidly transmitting are selected for --- those are vaccine evading variants.
By vaccinating without shutting down transmission we are promoting vaccine evading variants.
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How did India go from 90,000 cases per day to just over 10,000?
Answer is compelling
The big picture: Three things are important to stop the pandemic: Travel restrictions (International), travel restrictions (domestic), and strong local lockdowns where there are outbreaks
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Overwhelming data says opening prematurely will increase cases, escalate loss of life and economic harm. Countries that acted late to impose social distancing and testing are suffering. Countries that acted early soon will safely restart economies. Don’t play with fire
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New Research:
Stop "infection-based immunity" claims completely:
SARS-CoV-2 INFECTS T lymphocytes!
Direct damage to the immune system.
Why has this been hard to see? Answer: The infection doesn't use ACE-2 receptors. It uses a different mechanism.
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New Study on Mask Effectiveness:
Uninfected three meters from infected person is infected in less than five minutes with near 100% certainty.
If both wear FFP2 (like N95/KN95) masks, the risk drops to about 1 in 1000.
Efficacy at 1 hour: 99.6%
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How did India go from 90,000 cases per day to just over 10,000?
Answer is riveting
Start with Dharabi, largest slum in Asia: Impressive community case finding, contact tracing, isolation, quarantine, communications, massive health and volunteer effort, lockdown, support.
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Statement:
I am Yaneer Bar-Yam, Professor and founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute. I work on mathematical analyses to identify the variables necessary and sufficient to describe a complex problem at large scale.1/
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Japan study on Omicron: Peak infectiousness days 3-6 and infectious up to at least 10 days.
Everyone should make sure to isolate at least 10 days and test before exit.
CDC should restore at least 10 days isolation to prevent more transmission.
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Something must be happening now when a three year old paper about pervasive damage from COVID to blood vessels in children is suddenly in the news. This damage has many consequences that appear over time.
When will people act?
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Report:
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Get Ready for the Forever Plague [—Or Take Action]
"Public health officials’ COVID complacency has opened the door to new illnesses and devastating long-term damage.
@TheTyee
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Unsuccessful versus Successful COVID Strategies
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png attached
link to pdf
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Herd immunity for COVID was a batshit crazy idea based upon assumptions only justified by wishful thinking, not science. It should never have influenced policy in the real world. It continues to cause tremendous harm.
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Variants accelerating, as expected, score card:
From Omicron subvariants: BA.1, BA.1.1, and BA.2
Now:
XD and XF hybrids of Delta and BA.1
XE hybrid of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2
BA.4, BA.5 = BA.2 + important mutations
BA.2.12.1 and BA2.12.2
and...
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4.Trying to keep economic activity and travel as open as possible but perpetuating the economic harm and imposing yoyo restrictions, versus making an initial sacrifice of economic activity and travel in order to benefit from the rapid restoration of normal economic activity.
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Human DNA has remnants of ancient viral infections called Human Endogenous Retroviruses(HERV)
New study: COVID activates HERV-W in immune T-Cells & microglial brain cells, and is found in blood serum and plasma. HERV-W expression is correlated to MS. 1/
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COVID-19 must be eliminated, not become endemic, if America is to survive
"More and more people seem to be accepting the idea the future will include COVID-19.
"Those people don’t understand what that means.
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5.Focusing attention on few individuals resistant to social action because of shortsightedness or selfishness, versus recognizing the vast majority do the right thing if given clear guidance and support, which is what matters for success, as elimination is a robust strategy.
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7.Naive economic thinking of a tradeoff between economics and fighting the virus, versus realizing a short time economic hit will enable opening normally and restoring the economy (as recognized by McKinsey, BCG, IMF and other correct economic analyses).
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"Hundreds of doctors are planning to sue the NHS over claims inadequate PPE on the frontline has left them with long COVID, disabled, and in financial ruin.
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With a doubling rate of 2-3 days, if transmission is stopped when hospitals overflow, at that moment there are already 100X more infections that will need hospitalization 2 weeks later---and there is nothing that can be done because the infections already happened.
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versus starting with high restrictions to arrest transmission and relaxing restrictions only when the number of new cases is so low that contact tracing or localized short term action can stop community transmission (green zone strategy, including localized "fire fighting").
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We’re now finding out the damaging results of the mandated return to the office–and it’s worse than we thought
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CovidZero: How to end the pandemic in 5 weeks
CovidZero is an EXIT strategy.
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Direct evidence for COVID causing more infections of RSV published last month
RSV risk 40% higher (RR 1.4) after COVID
Association of COVID-19 with RSV infections in children aged 0–5 years in the USA in 2022: a multicentre retrospective cohort study 1/
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“Living with the virus” has failed. The wishful thinking, the regression to allowing biology to dominate society, the idea of normality of widespread disease has not worked. No way to justify the damage as health, economy and freedom are lost. Its advocates should reassess. 1/
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defeating the virus as a collective effort based in community action, galvanized by leaders providing clear information, a public health system engaging in community-based prevention of transmission, and the treatment of patients is, by design, as limited as possible.
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👇It hurts to see this. It hurts to think about those who are ventilated.
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8.We have to “live with the virus" versus we can eliminate the virus and return to normal social and economic conditions.
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The West is suffering over 2 years because we do not believe we can organize ourselves to confront this challenge. People say China is an autocracy. In the West, people are controlled by the press and corporate interests, instead of their own. 2/
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What have we been learning about long covid? The first thing is to answer questions that try to look for reasons it isn’t bad:
- Maybe it is in your mind: No, it is real biological damage.
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9.Waiting for high-tech vaccination to be a cure all, versus using right-tech classic pandemic isolation/quarantine of individuals and communities to completely stop transmission.
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The very idea that there is some benefit from getting infected, i.e. gaining immunity from future infections, has now been shown to be incorrect.
The opposite: an infection makes the next infection worse, not better.
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Any statement that the pandemic is over is a political one — with 1,000 weekly deaths reported by CDC in the US alone. Those who want to protect themselves from infection, long covid, and its many consequences, will continue to take precautions.
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Study: Evidence of major differences between Omicron BA.2 and BA.1:
BA.2 has
1. Higher R 1.4X (growing around the world)
2. More vaccine evading
3. Resistant to BA.1 induced immunity.
4. Higher severity (pathogenicity): More rapid and more extensive lung damage in hamsters
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Strokes, heart attacks, sudden deaths: Does America understand the long-term risks of catching COVID?
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Manifest brain damage in 55% COVID-19 patients
..higher bilateral gray matter volumes (GMV) in olfactory cortices, hippocampi, insulas, left Rolandic operculum..
No significant difference between severe and non-severe COVID
#longcovid
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More than 1,000 faculty members at Univ of Michigan have vowed to teach online today, or to help those who do, defying an order from president Mark Schlissel. Faculty members say they don’t want to teach in person because of risks of getting COVID-19.
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UK prime minister Boris Johnson this week has been reported to say it’s OK if 1000 people die from COVID every week. No action will be taken to prevent it.
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Endemic diseases 100 years ago in the US: Small pox, Malaria, Polio, Measles, Rubella, Diphtheria.
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California Mask Mandate Returns as Schools Says Wear Masks or Stay Home
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6.Incorrectly thinking that this is a steady state situation where balance between counter forces must be maintained versus a dynamic situation in which rapid action can shift conditions from a bad losing regime to a good winning one.
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South Korea: Government funds mandatory air purifiers at schools
"The South Korean government on Tuesday passed a revised school health act to improve quality of air and safety at preschools and primary and secondary schools.
Great!
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Outrageous statement by WHO for Monkeypox: "Case fatality is not very high because it is 3-6%" with most deaths occurring in younger age groups.
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Compare Spain and Greece: What difference does two weeks make? 100X
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Rarely does the press publish an article on long covid that tells it like it is. Here is one:
Long covid has derailed my life. Make no mistake: It could yours, too.
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2.Mitigation (slowing transmission) versus elimination (stopping transmission)
3.Gradually responding to increasing levels of infection by imposing greater restrictions which enables the infection rate to grow (red zone strategy), …
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Well over 100 scientific articles describe immune system damage caused by COVID. This provides a direct causal scientific explanation of unprecedented outbreaks of many other diseases.
The "normalization" narrative is casting around for speculative explanations. Ignore them.
For discussions of the impact of COVID on the immune system, please read this
COVID-19 and Immune Dysregulation, a Summary and Resource
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"Long Covid: NHS legal action launched by family of girl
"The mother of an 11-year-old Aberdeenshire girl with long Covid has launched a legal action against their health board, in what lawyers claim is the first case of its kind in Scotland.
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Fear mongering about lockdowns lasting for months is wrong. If we really lock down, in 2 weeks we know everyone infected now. They can be isolated. The next two weeks only people they live with might be sick. That is why it can be fast. See China attached.
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BREAKING: Dramatic drop in new China Coronavirus case counts today. Confirmed (blue dots in attached) and suspected (red dots) declined. As recent days suggested, once counts decrease we should expect rapid decline.
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When the virus becomes better at infecting people, people have to get better at preventing infection.
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7. It doesn’t spare children.
8. Vaccines help, but only some.
9. Masks work.
"Everyone should know about these studies.
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Taiwan: no unemployment, education system is as normal, of 23Mil 7 died. Zero community infection for months
Sweden: unemployment, limited education, of 10Mil 5,870 died, huge numbers of infected and long COVID
Lazy fools look at Sweden, industrious sages at Taiwan
@Meir_Rubin
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More hospitals reinstating mask mandates.
Everyone should be asking: Why did people have to get infected in order for them to do so?
Since hospital infection control experts are taking responsibility for masking policies, the outcomes should be their responsibility.
Four more hospitals and several primary care centers in New York have reinstated their mask mandates due to rising COVID cases.
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"Catching Covid is associated with a fivefold increase in the risk of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and a 33-fold increase in risk of a potentially fatal blood clot on the lung in the 30 days after becoming infected
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New poll:
Signal of change of direction on the pandemic.
Many Americans (about 50%) want a mask mandate.
By party reported:
75% of Democrats,
33% of Republicans, and
45% independents
This would be impossible to see from most reports in the press.
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World Total:
March 6: 100,000
March 17: 200,000, 11 days
March 21: 300,000, 4 d
Deaths:
Feb 18: 2,000 deaths
March 9: 4,000 deaths, 20 d
March 14: 6,000 deaths, 5 d
March 17: 8,000 deaths, 3 d
March 19: 10,000 deaths, 2 d
March 6: Bhutan 1 case, closed border. Today 2nd case.
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"Singapore has reintroduced the mandatory use of masks in crowded places, particularly indoors.
"The dominant strain responsible for this uptick in cases has been identified as JN.1, a sublineage of BA.2.86.
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Some people continue to consider infections to be positive
“Because they protect you from getting infected” … wait what?
Share this so they can better see the iceberg. Avoid icebergs!
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Two studies show that autoimmune diseases are dramatically higher after covid infections
Study
#1
: Autoimmune and Autoinflammatory Connective Tissue Disorders Following COVID-19
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10.Considering the virus as primarily a medical problem of treating individuals and individual responsibility for prevention of their own infection, versus...
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Prevalence of Long Covid is now estimated to be
51-80%
across all infections including asymptomatic, mild and severe.
We keep finding more of it.
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Study: Stopping universal admission testing was linked to significant increases in hospital-onset SARS-CoV-2 infections. Hospital infections remain common with high mortality rates.
Hospitals should not stop universal admission testing.
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Omicron is so contagious, stay away from people even outdoors and even wearing a mask.
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Overall, immunity from Omicron infection is much lower than the immunity from Delta infection, correlated with the severity of infection. So unless you get a severe infection with all of its consequences you also don’t get immunity from having another infection.
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Today I want to tell you that the pandemic has been mischaracterized as something we can’t control, even can’t do anything about. The challenge indeed, is not so much what to do, but to recognize that we can.8/
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If one measure, vaccination soon after a shot, prevents infection by a factor of 1 in 20X (95%),
and another, say good masking, prevents infection by a factor of 1 in 50X (98%)
and we do both at once, we get a factor of
1 in 20 * 50 = 1,000X
Combine to win.
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There are 5 pillars of prevention: Masking, Ventilation, Testing, Social distancing, and Vaccination.
Each of these has multiple levels. From poor to outstanding.13/
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Also the medical definition of "mild" continues to mean "not hospitalized".
Both so-called mild cases and long covid that can follow can be devastating and life changing.
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A word of warning. I’ve had Long Covid for 12mths and counting. In this time, I’ve been diagnosed with neurological sleep apnoea, encephalitis, sensorineural hearing loss, tinnitus dysautomnia and POTs, and myopericarditis. I was never hospitalised. My case is mild.
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Upgrading PPE for staff working on COVID-19 wards cut hospital-acquired infections dramatically
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Important addition:
Anthony Leonardi
@fitterhappierAJ
has shown that the immune system T-cells are damaged by covid (shades of HIV), potentially undermining not just Covid immunity but immunity to other diseases, and part of Autoimmune dysfunction after covid.
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has 14,000 members.
Many are not aware of the opportunity to reach out to others who are still taking precautions, and that it has groups and a directory of safer businesses.
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A three-day poll on the Herald Scotland website asked people whether they thought staff and visitors should be required to wear FFP2 or FFP3 masks in hospitals and care homes.
Results: 82% of 2,988 people who voted were in favour, 18% against.
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We are urgently looking for food science or food safety experts to discuss monkeypox safety and disinfection in the food supply system from farm to table.
Please DM me or email me at yaneer at necsi dot edu
Rapid response appreciated
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There’s a line from the film The Big Short that echoes through my head..The investor Michael Burry says, “I may have been early, but I’m not wrong.” There’s a lot of us who feel like that right now. A majority of the world thinks we’re crazy. In reality, we’re not crazy at all.4/
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But it is impossible to reach
#ZeroCOVID
! (China)
Not in a democracy! (Taiwan)
Not in Western democracy! (New Zealand)
Not in a big country! (Australia)
But they are islands! (Thailand)
But only with full cooperation! (South Korea)
But sealed borders! (Taiwan, South Korea)
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Companies that are suffering from the current business environment should consider how much more "living with the virus" they can afford.
Elimination is the Exit strategy.
The best investment today is in elimination.
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Doctors of the Vilnius City Clinical Hospital must take responsibility for the death of a patient infected with COVID-19 in the treatment facility according to the Court of Appeal of Lithuania in awarding damages to the son of the deceased woman
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Organ damage from COVID is much more widespread than symptomatic long COVID, causing deaths from stroke, heart attacks and more
Actuaries see deaths—and it is COVID
More young Americans are dying–and it's not COVID. Why aren't we searching for answers?
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