Vladimir Frolov
@vfroloff
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Former intelligence practitioner and foreign policy planner: always undercover
Moscow
Joined July 2011
Mais oui, exactement.
#Ukraine Résumons: les Européens sont spectateurs des négociations . Washington offre aux Russes l’Ukraine sur un plateau. Poutine dit aux émissaires de Trump qu’il en veut plus et que c’est de la faute des Européens bellicistes si l’offre américaine n’est pas encore meilleure
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Constructive talks, no deal for now. To be continued. RU got four versions of Trump’s plan, none of them acceptable as is. Agreed not to publicize the contents of their discussions.
Witkoff and Kushner's meeting with Putin ends after five hours
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The talks (in their fifth hour after a short break) are dragging into the night. It’s beginning to look like Minsk-2 in 2015. https://t.co/E6Fx1mX3VR
nbcnews.com
"If Trump will really press him, Putin will agree to end the fighting," one Russian analyst told NBC News.
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For RU, a good outcome of today’s talks would be the U.S. agreeing to a structured RU/US negotiating process on UA and European security, with working groups. This will put the “28/19/22 point plan” into “diplomatic language” with verification/enforcement measures and guarantees.
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Ru sees European security as a bilateral U.S./RU issue. As President Yeltsin would say, “Just give us Europe, Donald”…..
“But beyond that, he also wants to start a real diplomatic process with the United States to talk not only about Russia Ukraine, but other issues that ought to be on the US/Russia bilateral agenda, which include European security and strategic stability.
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It might be apt for the Trump administration to nominate Witkoff as the next U.S. Ambassador to Moscow (vacant now). He would have all the access needed to do the job well.
The Kremlin pitched the White House on peace through business. To Europe’s dismay, the president and his envoy are on board.
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Not clear what legal consequences this would have if it’s just a Presidential or a State Department policy statement. It would be like Trump recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital or Western Sahara as part of Maroc during his first term. Easily reversible after 2028 elections.
Exclusive: Trump to recognise occupied Ukraine as part of Russia, according to offer set to be delivered to Putin by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner
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Correct, but Moscow will have a vote here (the U.S. draft contains Putin’s signature under the guarantees) and will insist on the “indivisible security” principle requiring Ru consent.
7/ The U.S. plan also includes a security guarantee — a major improvement over the 2022 Istanbul framework, which the West refused when Ukraine’s battlefield position was far stronger. Today, conditions deteriorating, even imperfect guarantees carry far greater weight in Kyiv.
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in which we learn that the US intelligence community monitors the cell phones of senior RU officials. What a surprise?
👀Bloomberg publishes transcript of an Oct. 29 Ushakov/Kirill Dmitriev call, where dmitriev suggests he can pass a proposal to US/Witkoff that US adopts as its plan Dmitriev: “I don’t think they’ll take exactly our version, but at least it’ll be as close to it as possible”
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We are currently geolocated here….
two peace deals one, drafted by russia and the united states, rejected by ukraine and nato a second, drafted by ukraine and the united states, which will be rejected by russia bringing us back to where we were a week ago
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Highly unlikely Ru would agree to this 800 000 limit, as indicated yesterday. Will demand a much lower cap for the UAAF, perhaps closer to the pre-war number of 250 000 as UA proposed in Istanbul in 2022. Ru will insist on intrusive verification measures to ensure compliance.
For context, this is roughly the size of the Ukrainian army currently. It could be close to 900,000 but that may be pushing it. 800,000 is still by quite a margin the largest army in Europe, not counting Russia.
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The Kremlin says (Ushakov) that Ru will only work with the U.S. plan, as it finds most of its provisions, but not all, acceptable to Ru. Ru saw a European draft (not clear which one) and finds it unacceptable. RU/US seek to bracket the EU out of the settlement. Not clear how.
This is a sensible document but might not be acceptable to RU, although it meets some of Ru’s key demands, it makes sure most of UA stays beyond Ru reach. Unless it embarked on Georgia’s trajectory under a new leadership. Ru will demand changes.
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no deadline then... looks like it could be done. Depends on Ru response.
BREAKING: @SecRubio emerges from meetings and repeatedly describes "substantial progress" and "great strides" without giving details. "The items that remain open are not insurmountable. I honestly think we will get there." And suggests the Thursday deadline can slide: "The
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This is a sensible document but might not be acceptable to RU, although it meets some of Ru’s key demands, it makes sure most of UA stays beyond Ru reach. Unless it embarked on Georgia’s trajectory under a new leadership. Ru will demand changes.
reuters.com
Below is the text of a European counter-proposal to the United States' draft 28-point Ukraine peace plan, seen by Reuters on Sunday.
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The best account of how the 28 point plan came about. Its launch was triggered by UA signaling, by Umerov, its openness to full withdrawal from the Donetsk region and capping UAAF at 600 000. Which kind of undermines the EU position. But Tomahawks again?
washingtonpost.com
U.S. officials tell me Trump’s peace plan is flexible, but a painful decision lies at its core.
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A more likely trajectory is “Georgia after August 2008”, as outlined in the JPMorganStanley report May 2025.
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This sounds like a U.S. security guarantee to Qatar which is considerably less than a U.S. no security guarantee to Israel.
A US official and European official confirm to me there is text separate from the 28 point plan that lays out the US' definition of a security guarantee to Ukraine. It is modeled on and explicitly references @NATO's Article 5, and declares that "a significant, deliberate, and
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Putin says Ru received Trump’s 28 point plan and finds it broadly acceptable as a basis for future talks, but does not see it as the final settlement. Ready for detailed discussions with the U.S. on all aspects of the plan when the U.S. secures UA agreement. No deadline.
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There are no long-range weapons limits for UA, no bans on whole classes of heavy arms (like bombers or submarines or ballistic missiles), no limits on UA arms industry. Of course, Ru will seek to remedy this drawback along its own proposals in Istanbul in 2022/25.
There continue to be claims that Ukraine would be denied long-range weapons. I’m not seeing that (am I just reading incomplete versions of the text), just a commitment to not actually striking Moscow or St P “without cause” 5/
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The text of the 28 point plan speaks for itself. While it has most of what Ru wants in the settlement framework, it would have to be thoroughly reworked and substantively built up to ensure verified implementation. If UA accepted most of it, real negotiations could follow.
Full text: 1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed. 2. A comprehensive and comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled. 3. It is expected that Russia will not
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