Jens von Bergmann
@vb_jens
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Data, analysis, visualization, #CensusMapper , transportation cyclist. Mastodon: @vb_jens @econtwitter .net Bsky: @jensvb .bsky.social
Vancouver
Joined December 2013
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Pinned Tweet
Putting the 'open' into
#openData
, one map at a time. Make your own
#CensusMapper
map!
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I have been thinking about how different people interpret data differently. And made this xkcd style graphic to illustrate this.
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Every time a new variant with a selective advantage is making the rounds, but especially this time.
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Your regular reminder that Canadian election maps are great but also not great. (Not all districts are called yet, some are greyed out. But better get ahead of all the "we won by area" bad takes.)
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Cases are declining in most age groups, but the under 10 is growing rapidly. I’d like to know what the plan is.
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Doing my part to lessen Vancouver’s housing shortage. Slab construction, locally sourced materials. Low embodied emissions, carbon equivalent of about 6 large pizzas. I won’t be taking questions about child labour or appropriation of indigenous designs.
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Unpopular opinion, housing discussions suck because people writing about it often have no subject matter understanding, can't understand the research they point to, and aren't able to adjudicate disagreements by different people. Resulting in ridiculous misrepresentations/claims.
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Got tired of manually updating Canada-related COVID-19 growth rate graphs, so I made an auto-updating interactive.
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The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their first report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (April 14, 2021). Yay! Depending on people's time this may become a somewhat regular thing, maybe every other week.
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Could not resist, Vancouver land use in 100 emoji
🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡
🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡
🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡
🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡🏡
🏡🏡🏡🏡🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️
🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️
🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️🛣️
🛣️🛣️🌳🌳🌳🌳🌳🌳🌳🌳
🌳🌳🌳🌳🌳🌳🌳🌳🏢🏢
🏢🏢🏢🏢🏢🏬🏬🏬🏬🏬
🏥🏥🏥🏭🏭🏭🚆🚢🧑🌾◼️
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There seems to be a renewed interest in this tweet and I again get question if people can use the graphic. The answer is Yes, and to clarify this I have uploaded the code with an open licence so people can also modify it to their taste.
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With today's provincial case reports all done (I am still loving the auto-update), the downward trend in growth rates of confirmed cases is looking increasingly robust. Except it's not clear to me what's going on in Ontario.
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Looks like this needs be said regularly: Housing is good actually. People derive tremendous value from living in housing. From having options to change housing to better fit changing living situations. We should broadly allow housing, and make sure it's accessible to everyone.
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Aaaand another update. Forgot to specify the correct color for the Green Party. 😰 Thanks to
@by_ryan_abbott
for catching this!! (live notebook is updated too)
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Nobody who modelled variants in BC came up with a scenario where cases would not explode. This was predictable, and it was predicted. Despite all this, public health talks about this as if the underlying epidemiology driving things was a complete mystery.
Dr. Henry asked about why these changes now and says up until late last week she still had hope the case count rise would stop
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I'd like to reiterate that our test positivity for public testing is still between 30% and 40%, and you only get down to 20%-30% by mixing in private testing. Mixing private and public testing when assessing positivity bad practice and I hope we aren't basing policy on this.
Dr. Henry says most people who get tested for COVID do not have it. Says test positivity is around 20% to 30%. Says most people who get tested don't have COVID.
#bcpoli
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Yes, donut graphs have problems and are evil, but I really like the simple and intuitive interpretation of these vaccine graphs that
@bcshaffer
started.
Close those rings!!!
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New StatCan excess mortality estimates are out today, here in an updated graph focusing on BC.
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With back to school looming on Monday my wife and I made the mistake of reading the schools section in the latest BCCDC modelling update. And we have some opinions that don't fit into a twitter thread, so blog post it is.
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I don’t care if you call it an “outbreak” or a “cluster” or a “fluffy bunny event” when over half a class gets infected with secondary transmissions in siblings, parents and grandparents. Announce it under a different name instead of continuing to list it simply as “exposure”.
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I have been obsessing a bit about the Two COVID Canadas, the Atlantic provinces vs the other provinces. Everyone is struggling to contain the spread right now, but the two Canadas are operating in completely different leagues. It's not even close.
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A view from Germany, where opening schools with strong mitigation (emphasis on ventilation and universal masking) and TTI (2 or 3 times a week surveillance testing for all, rapid test or pooled PCR) yields declining infections in all age groups, including unvaccinated children.
@vb_jens
In Germany the numbers are falling massively in the age group, i. e. in the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen⬇️, what is typical.
We have massive testing in schools, mandatory masks, teachers that control rules.
Querentines have been hard at school openening, because masses of …
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New StatCan excess mortality estimates are out today, time to update the graph of BC's public health performance over the past two years, highlighting the reported contributions of the three major public health crises.
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I have to admit that I did not have “suppressed household formation is good actually, we want more kids stuck in parent’s basements or staying longer in roommate setups” on my anti-housing bingo card.
New supply does not mean affordability without intentional government action to make it so.
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If you think a 50% supply shock lowers rents by just 5% I got a house to sell you. The linked study looks at hyper-local rent effects, how rents react in a 500ft radius compared to 500-1000ft around new housing. The journalist misrepresents this as a regional demand estimate.
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Can someone explain to me why we don't immediately employ rapid tests when we find 24 cases in a daycare centre affecting 5 classes? We only got about a million tests in storage. Instead of comprehensive testing we bet on the spread staying contained to exactly 5 classes.
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Insisting new housing should be smaller so it’s more affordable is bonkers bad policy. Yes, housing that’s less nice rents or sells for less. But purposefully shittifying new housing in the name of affordability is a shitty affordability strategy.
Fourplexes are a complicated niche that could provide some housing relief - The Globe and Mail
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Almost all age groups are declining nicely, but the under 10 year olds really need to stop partying, they will blow it for the rest of us.
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Someone tell the under 10yo to stop partying, they are ruining it for the rest of us.
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Vancouver planners make it exceedingly complicated to add housing, and then complain about the work they have created for themselves. And instead of simplifying approval processes, they ask council for direction how to ration housing. In a housing crisis.
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What bothers me most is that we never even considered elimination. There was no study, no report, no leadership. Instead all we got is some throwaway remarks about number of border crossings or essential border traffic.
Canada’s Crazy Pandemic Response
As the third wave built and now may drown us, our leaders keep blathering about ‘balance.’
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Did I really just watch a "modelling update" that did not included any modelling of VOC nor vaccination? And the best information on VOC we got was that we had "less than 10%" (how much less?) two weeks ago?
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Just noticed that Apple updated their 3D maps data for Vancouver, looks like they flew the new survey sometime this summer. If you miss the barge you can still enjoy the 3D model in your Maps app.
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10yo is done with scraping, WE HAVE DATA! Exact counts may differ by one or two cases, the scarped data comes out with a total of 3877 cases vs 3879 in the original data.
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Time to take a look at BC cases, got too busy yesterday to update and data systems were down the day before, so three days of new data. We see clear signs of slowing. Between people being shell-shocked by case counts and March 30 restrictions, something seems to have worked!
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It would be extremely beneficial for everyone if the BCCDC could put out a document laying out the evidence behind this claim, showing how things are different in BC than in other places in the world.
The joke's on me, as Dr. Bonnie Henry insisted again today that BC schools are magical covid-free zones—far safer for kids than the "unstructured time" spent in their own homes. Sure.
Cc.
@DrEricDing
@DFisman
@DrZoeHyde
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Really frustrating how planners keep misinterpreting constrained choice as revealed preference. If you give bikes a safe route to shops, they will use it. If you give cars more lanes, they will fill them up. The decision to “give space to cars and observe” is plain pro-car bias.
Read
@fabulavancouver
's article in the
@globeandmail
about the recent Vancouver Council decision not to put separated active mobility lanes along Broadway.
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Will the construction labour markets adjust if regulatory housing constraints are lifted? Data from New Zealand indicates the answer is Yes. In past decades New Zealand added on average 5,000 housing units per quarter, but that's on track to double this decade.
record 46,400 new homes built last year
incredible. seeing the results in falling house prices, flat rents
184,000 homes built under Labour in just 5 years. 1 in 11 homes in the country were built since Ardern become PM. Biggest building boom in history
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Edmonton is showing up a lot of Canada's large cities in terms of their urban policies. No parking minimums. 8 units per lot, designed to be economically viable. I am sure there is still work to be done, but this is what forward-looking planning looks like.
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Excellent news, I can finally stop posting this map that came out of our
@MetroVanZoning
project.
Some of these skytrain stations opened almost 40 years ago and the city still hasn't updated land use regulation around them. Now the province is stepping in to fix that.
While we are investing billions in transit infrastructure across B.C., outdated rules are slowing down the delivery of homes next to SkyTrain stations and major bus exchanges.
Homes near transit and services that people rely on.
Today, I introduced a Bill to fix this.
🧵 [1/4]
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Your regular reminder that when planners say housing got “approved” it doesn’t mean the housing got a permit to start building. It means the housing got approved to apply for another approval to then to apply for a permit to build. Confused? You should be, the system is broken.
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You regular reminder that health care workers in BC still don’t get to wear N95 masks when tending covid patients because droplets small and large somethingsomething so only droplet precautions needed.
BRB, going to bang some pots now, maybe that helps ...
I'm about to go on
@CTVNews
. Pls don't look too closely at my beat up red nose & my new zit I got from wearing my
@FixTheMask
DIY brace on my mask all week seeing patients. It's worth it though to be as safe as I can as N95s not "permitted"
#COVIDisAirborne
@DFisman
@kprather88
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It’s really disheartening to watch how (versions of) this graph become popular in different parts of the world. I made this graph when the emergence of Alpha was getting ignored/minimized in BC, but the same story is repeating over and over again across the globe.
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It's been quite a while since I posted BC COVID case graphs, here is the current state of affairs. Cases aren't declining any more, we are in what looks like a growth scenario again. Lots of stochasicity in our low-ish case counts so hard to pin down, but not looking good.
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In the absence of useful timely COVID data in BC I am once again turning to survey data. And survey says BC has entered its 6th wave.
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Apropos nothing, BC reports vaccination rates of Kindergarten children by school for a range of vaccines. Leaving this here for the next time someone says we can't report COVID-19 vaccination rates for small groups of people for privacy (or some other) reasons.
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New post TL;DR:
@LausterNa
and I estimate that planning decisions preventing recent apartment buildings in YVR from being 20% taller are resulting in an annual redistribution of half a billion dollars from renters to existing landlords via higher rents.
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Most regional demand elasticity estimates are an order of magnitude higher, with a 1% increase in housing stock lowering prices and rents around 2.5%. So a 10% housing supply shock lowers rents by 22%, a 20% shock lowers rents by 39%, etc. A very different ballpark.
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Your regular reminder that "in the pipeline" is (mostly) planner-speak for housing that planners made illegal, but then may or may not get legalized on a one-by-one basis, and that then may or may not get actually built.
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Most understand that we have a housing shortage. People don't line up for rentals just for the fun of it. Yet there is this brain worm that somehow "housing supply is double our demand".
@LausterNa
and took one such claim as an opportunity to dissect it.
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Fun tool to easily compare city density patterns. This one is for the "Vancouver should be more like Paris" crowd.
You’ve almost certainly been lied to after Googling how big the world’s cities are. How can it be that Melbourne in Australia has 5 million residents, whereas New York City only has 8? It's been very difficult to compare cities, until now...
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“A massive problem needs a massive response. And that’s not happening.”
Blame Trudeau for housing, sure – but the real fault belongs to your local mayor
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Haven't done a thread of BC COVID in ages. It's not looking pretty.
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What a weird coincidence that I never get stuff like this when I write a tweet in German, my native language.
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Proud to have worked with a great team of people on background modelling to inform this policy.
Economic analysis shows that together these laws could bring around 250,000 additional net new homes to B.C. over the next decade, while stabilizing rents. ✅
These are homes that without these changes would not otherwise have been created. 🏡
👉🏾
🧵[5/5]
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The province seems very optimistic about halting our current case growth through vaccinations. I built an interactive notebook to let people explore what kind of reduction in transmission can be expected from vaccinations alone. TL;DR: It's not enough.
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The pace of new housing legislation coming out of BC is staggering, here is another excellent reform. This is what an all-hands-on-deck approach looks like.
Another important step - finding ways to build differently. ✅
Today, we announced proposed changes to the BC Building Code to enable taller
#MassTimber
buildings, from the current limit of 12-storeys...
To as many as 18-storeys! Or 9-storeys without encapsulation! 🙌🏾
🧵[1/3]
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Vancouver's saddest census tract. It lost 30% of its population since 1971.
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Landlords transition from altruistic and decommodified to greedy and commodified. And back again, as seen in this example using Calgary data. If only we understood why that happens we could work on creating conditions where landlords stay altruistic and decommodified.
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New preliminary mortality data is out from StatCan today. Suicides during COVID-19 have been trending significantly lower compared to the previous 10 years.
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Excess mortality estimates updated today, so just like every month here is the updated graph. Still no sign of a flattening of the trend. Starting to wonder if looking for flattening is just wishful thinking and higher age-adjusted mortality rates is the "new normal"?
Updated excess mortality estimates came out today, still no sign of a flattening curve.
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Some concerning B.1.617 (India) stats out of Britain. Too early to day for sure if that's signal or noise, but something we should pay close attention to in BC. By April 4th we had identified 39 cases of B.1.617 in BC, time for a status update and more details on these cases!
NEW: the variant thought to be responsible for fuelling India’s grim second wave (B.1.617) has been found in the UK, and numbers are rising relatively quickly in Britain.
Story from
@AnnaSophieGross
&
@JasmineCC_95
Quick thread on caveats:
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Vancouver NIMBYs: We don’t want towers, we want low rise!
Also Vancouver NIMBYs: We don’t want low rise, we want exclusion of renters!
Vancouver YIMBYs: We should not litigate low rise apartments one by one, make them legal everywhere!
Vancouver planners: No, this is the way!
A 5-storey apartment in Kerisdale has gotten some pushback from people who think renters will ruin their property value. Hearing is tomorrow, Write in with your support tonight!
"1. 2325-2377 West 49th Ave"
My letter:
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Study on housing in Toronto: Councillors are more likely to oppose housing if they represent more homeowners, as well as if the proposed housing is in their own ward.
My new paper with
@Lfang17
and N. Stewart, Homeowner Politics and Housing Supply, was published today at
@JUrbanEcon
. We examine the role of homeowner influence and NIMBYs on housing production in Toronto.
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@MaxCRoser
Or Taiwan, where they implemented a detailed protocol right at the start of rumours of an outbreak in Wuhan. And so far, despite high travel volumes to and from China, had really low case numbers.
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Children are good, actually. And childcare is good. If we want childcare we should allow it as-of-right throughout the city, just as Delta just did.
In Vancouver childcare is only allowed outright in the green areas, in the blue areas it requires discretionary planning approval.
Delta Council has unanimously approved bylaw changes that would permit childcare facilities in ALL zones across the city.
Our Childcare Action Plan calls for the creation of over 1000 new spaces by 2030. Pre-zoning to allow daycare is a significant step towards this goal. 1/3
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Homeowners in Canada enjoy enormous subsidies, this one targeting BC homeowners living in homes valued up to $2.125 million is probably the most ridiculous one. Got to love how government is trying to hide their responsibility behind their pseudo-scientific "92% rule".
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What do you call it when people blame housing problems on foreigners? How does that kind of thing start, spread, and make its way into policy?
@LausterNa
and I call it Housing Nationalism, and we study its rise in Canada in a new paper out at JEMS:
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And while I am on a rant, BCCDC has stopped sharing genomic data to GISAID, effectively blocking research efforts on variant spread across Canada. Of the well over 10k sequences BC has done this year, only 11 (eleven) have been shared. This is a huge problem and it needs fixing.
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Off-Broadway is not a bike route, it’s a directive not to cycle on Broadway. It’s a parking lot with a single access lane designated for motorists and cyclists to duke it out. Anyone suggesting it’s anything else clearly hasn’t taken their kid cycling along there to get to places
(2) The city claims there are parallel active transport routes on 10th and 8th, but these are unambiguously awful. They're 4-lane car streets with a constant dooring risk. They're dangerous, and the safety risks keep people away.
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Changing COVID testing wait times data over the past week. 😮 First wait times were long. Then handing out rapid tests significantly shortened wait times for those still getting PCR. Then one test centre closed. Then another one. And noon today the last remaining one went silent.
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Can we please get proper data to the experts at our research universities so that they don’t have to make rough inferences off of noisy hand-transcribed numbers from press briefings?
BC daily news data on
#COVID19
variants. Lots of caveats: reports combine old & new tests, we don't know sampling fraction, and we can only calculate the average over weekends and other gaps. Still, graph takes numbers at face value and illustrates why there's cause for concern.
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A quick look at commute flows in Metro Vancouver in 2021. Vancouver, Richmond, and Burnaby are the big commute destinations, Surrey, Coquitlam, and Maple Ridge see the largest outflows. 50k more commuters leave Surrey than come into Surrey each day.
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“The province still believes they are on a good course outside the Okanagan.”
Meanwhile, all Health Authorities have been consistently showing similar growth rates over the past three weeks, Interior simply started a tad earlier and at a higher level.
“These steps we believe will allow us to contain the transmission of the virus," says Dr. Henry, pushing people to get vaccinated.
The province still believes they are on a good course outside the Okanagan.
We'll see.
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Small lot development with permissive mixing of uses is good, actually. This allows for organic growth that can adapt to changing needs. And it makes for interesting streetscapes and livable cities.
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Your regular reminder why dwellings have been growing faster than population.
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Check out this monstrosity at a little over 7 FSR! Of course the City of Vancouver made this illegal. And not just by a little. Current C-3A zoning only allows 1 FSR outright, conditionally up to 3 FSR depending on your ability to convince city planners to sign off on that.
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@DouglasTodd
This is simply not true. It was originally intended as a hotel. (There was an architecture competition, and the winning model of 4 towers of different heights got rejected by council in favour of this one.) But developer went bankrupt, and state won building in auction.
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"We've seen the start of exponential growth" -- That's a new one. Given where we are at right now I'll place that at the upper end of the "Under Control" box and call that an improvement.
I have been thinking about how different people interpret data differently. And made this xkcd style graphic to illustrate this.
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Staff needs to get a grip. What’s unlivable is the current empty lot, not this innovate infill proposal. Reason number 53646 why we need provincial intervention on housing.
@CAHiggins
Maybe. But very small.
Was pretty disappointing seeing staff come at us with guns blazing critiquing the livability of the proposal. So… incredibly status quo
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BREAKING: In the third wave BC wavers on its long-standing data blackout policy and will only withhold case counts on Fr, Su, and Mo.
Does anyone have insight into what prevents BC from publishing high-level case counts every day like basically every other Canadian province?
NEW- The province will be providing a case update on Saturday by release. And an in person briefing next Tuesday.
#bcpoli
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Tomorrow Vancouver council will vote on expanding residential (overnight) parking permits to apply city-wide. This is a necessary step in undoing a massive insidious planning failure in our city: minimum parking requirements.
@LausterNa
and I take a look.
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It makes intuitive sense, aligns with economic theory, and checks out empirically. Yet there are still people out there adamantly claiming that building more housing does not help with affordability. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
This
@jburnmurdoch
piece in the FT does a great job of showing how increasing housing supply in Auckland and Minneapolis has had a big impact on rents compared to cities that didn’t build.
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Also a perfect model for other parts of Vancouver. Like Kitsilano, which was slowly transitioning toward becoming another West End before planners and council intervened in the 70s and downzoned the area to prevent exactly this from happening. High time to revisit this!
Vancouver’s West End is one of Canada’s great neighbourhoods. It proves density and great residential character can mix. High-rise, mid-rise, houses all on the same street supporting a vibrant commercial high-street. A perfect model for the future of Winnipeg’s Osborne Village.
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In terms of avocado toast & latte, on average the affected home owners will have to forego 1 🥑🍞☕️ per day to pay for the extra school tax. But their homes appreciated on average by 48 🥑🍞☕️ per day. Or 2 per hour 🤢.
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This is troubling. And in BC we can't do this analysis. BCCDC does not do this work themselves, and they don't publish timely VOC screening data to allow others to do it. (And sequencing data lags even more and BCCDC prevalence estimates are questionable).
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One more day of data, right on the trend line. Seriously wondering what the point is to wait until case counts are higher before bringing back NPIs in all of BC. One or two weeks of “freedom” paid for with elevated hospitalizations that will take a month+ to get back down.
Great to see the re-introduction of restrictions in the Okanagan in response to rising COVID cases. To better see how the other regions are doing I added a log-plot for all the Health Authorities to the auto-updating repo.
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Oh look, a proposal to tear down a low rise apartment building with 8 rental homes built in 1972 and replace it with 3 single detached houses. Down the street we are getting 40 storey rental towers, but CoV thinks single/duplex is best landuse here.
In Kits Point someone put a development permit to covert an apartment building into 3 single family homes. What an astounding policy failure that this is the highest value use for this site.
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Big props to
@BCschoolCovid
for meticulously documenting school exposures and thus filling an important data hole. 👏👏👏 It takes an enormous amount of work to assemble such data. And it’s one of the pieces of data we made use of to proxy for prevalence of variants of concern.
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It seems this was needed, so I spent my lunchtime on an extra school tax calculator.
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If your study results contradict a large body of research, coming to substantially different results, it’s very likely your study got things wrong and you should run it by some other people before uploading to a preprint server. Even more so if your study is easily politicized.
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Federal government is not impressed by Metro Vancouver trying to capture the GST waver. As they should be.
In light of a proposed development cost charge increase by Metro Van, I‘ve postponed today’s announcement of Housing Accelerator Fund deals with 2 cities who are members of the Metro Van board.
We’re studying the impacts of this proposal and I hope to have more to say soon.
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“Could you please give me some of the stats from your school assessments for the media brief today. We need to be able to give some data that supports what we keep saying transmission in schools is low,” Henry wrote. (FOI by
@SrushtiGangdev
and others.)
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Remind me again why it is that BC does not give out data over the weekend? I do know a parent or two that would have appreciated knowing the recent COVID trends before sending the kids to school on Monday...
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“The lack of clear data on the variants of concern has hampered our ability to forecast the spread of B.1.1.7 in B.C. and has misled us into underestimating the risks posed by VOC in the province,” said
@sarperotto
.
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