If $SPX holds today's gains it will be up 5 weeks in a row. It has not been up 6 weeks in a row this decade
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Up 6 weeks in a row for the first time in 4 years
If $SPX holds today's gains it will be up 5 weeks in a row. It has not been up 6 weeks in a row this decade
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Up 7 weeks in a row for the first time since 2017. Half went at least 8, none were at a significant top
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80% go higher in the next month by avg 1.9%
The S&P posted its 7th consecutive positive wk on Dec 15. Since 1950, I see 30 streaks of +7. The S&P is up 14.6% last 7 wks. Focusing on those 20 of the 30 that were up at least 7% I have the following forward results. The 1% moves over the next 4 wks were 14-1.
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$SPX tracking 8 weeks up in a row for only the 3rd time since the GFC. Last time it went to 9 was 2003. Major tops haven't started from streaks like this
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Since 1926, after 8 consecutive weeks of positive returns, $SPX higher 77% of time with 2.5% return during positive outcomes and -1.1% for negative outcomes. Compare to 62% probability in all other 4wk periods. Here's the simulated path out 13wks:
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First 9 week gain since 2003 and only the fourth such gain since 1980. It went to 10 only once in that period $SPX
$SPX tracking 8 weeks up in a row for only the 3rd time since the GFC. Last time it went to 9 was 2003. Major tops haven't started from streaks like this
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Here are the other three 9-wk gains since 1980:
- None was the near term top (arrows)
- Two went nowhere for a year or so (1989, 2004)
- One kept going higher after a two month back n forth (1985)
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After a strong up-month for both stocks and bonds, the S&P 500 is priced to earn an annual return on 8.88%, with an ERP of 4.53%. With the market and experts both moving to a consensus view of no recession & lower inflation, the expectations game has been reset.…
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@ukarlewitz
how long price does something isn't a function of price -- liquidity injections and currency games from the treasury and fed can keep price doing what they want as long as they want. They also know when institutions and ETFs have to rebalance and are forced to buy.
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@ukarlewitz
@agnostoxxx
We didn’t have 0dtes back then, so it’s becoming more and more irrelevant. 0dte completely destroyed natural price discovery.
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@ukarlewitz
@agnostoxxx
We havent had a fed chair hit the pause button after a circa 5% jam higher in rates either for how long? Catayst and squeezes count. (dont forget to throw in the AI outlier).
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@ukarlewitz
"it has not been up six weeks in a row this decade"
i guess we will get not just six but ten to round out the year lol
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