Una Galani
@ugalani
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Asia Editor for Reuters Breakingviews. Views, not news.
Joined March 2011
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"Adani Group: Deeply Overleveraged... Strong competition between the Adani Group and Reliance Industries to achieve market dominance could lead to imprudent financial decisions being made", warns Fitch in a credit note with an unusual amount of caveats and contradictions..
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Extraordinary interview by
@adarpoonawalla
, owner of the world’s largest vaccine maker, The Serum Institute in India.
India’s vaccines supremo hints that he may start producing in Britain and tells Martin Fletcher about threatening calls from the rich and powerful
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They are partly why Poonawalla flew to London to join his wife and two children hours before Britain banned travellers from India eight days ago. “I’m staying here an extended time because I don’t want to go back to that situation,” he says.
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The calls come from some of the most powerful men. They come from the chief ministers of Indian states, heads of business conglomerates and others demanding instant supplies of Covishield, as the AstraZeneca vaccine is known in India. “ ‘Threats’ is an understatement,” he says.
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Strongly worded note and headline but Fitch isn't changing its "market perform" recommendations on the two Adani credits (Adani Green Energy and Adani Ports) under its coverage.
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He is also there on business. He says he is planning to start vaccine production in countries outside India. Would that include Britain? “There’s going to be an announcement in the next few days,” he replies coyly.
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Declines invitation to apportion blame. “If I give you the right answer, or any answer, my head would be chopped off ... I can’t comment on the elections or Kumbh Mela. It’s too sensitive,” he says adding: “I don’t think even God could have forecast it was going to get this bad”
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We feel many group companies require equity capital injections to reduce their high leverage levels...Despite the promoter’s large net worth, it is difficult to predict the extent of the promoter’s capacity to continually provide liquidity support, says Fitch
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The calls, and throngs of desperate people who gather outside the Serum Institute’s 100-acre, state-of-the-art campus in Pune, 90miles east of Mumbai, explain why Poonawalla has been offered a government security detail, and why the campus now has 24/7 police protection.
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I love Bandra, Mumbai: Fell over while running, thought I broke my ankle. A sea of strangers rushed to assist, gave me water & lime juice, fed me oranges, helped me lie down, found a dr, drove me home. I had the good fortune of tripping near the
#Ottersclub
@bandrainfo
#kindness
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Fitch warns, in the worst case, Adani's debt-funded growth plans could eventually spiral into a massive debt trap but then retains their "market perform" ratings on the two Adani credit they cover and simply concludes they "remain cautiously watchful"
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"Owing to its reputation both with bank lenders and in the domestic market, and diverse asset base in stable
infrastructure industries, we see a few mitigating factors to the credit concerns highlighted above" says Fitch noting strong relationships with banks and bond holders
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Two extremes of expat life.
Australia to its citizens in India: Don't come home or we might throw you in jail.
France to its citizens in India: Please let us vaccinate with you with our supply of Moderna jabs.
#COVID19India
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India Insight: Mumbai's rich are used to buying their way out of a public infrastructure problem. But money is now no guarantee of a hospital bed. The financial capital is living the emerging world healthcare infrastructure nightmare, my latest
#Covid_19
#COVID19India
1/11
Mumbai's wealthy are struggling to buy their way out of an emerging market healthcare nightmare, writes
@ugalani
: .
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"The promoter family has currently pledged minimal stakes in the 6 listed entities. This leaves room for them to pledge their residual stake as collateral, in case they feel the need to raise funds and potentially infuse liquidity support to a subsidiary in need of cash."
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Just to be 100% clear, Fitch Group sent out this research note produced by CreditSights. CreditSights was acquired last year by Fitch, a name synonymous with credit ratings. Highlights the conflict of Fitch the group and Fitch the ratings agency.
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A serious coronavirus outbreak in India would be a disaster: the country has only 0.7 hospital beds per 1,000 people, less than all the other BRIC countries. Interestingly, China has 4.2, ahead of Australia, the US, and even Singapore (Source: World Bank Development Index, UBS)
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UK travel restrictions are frustrating. India's
#COVID19
-19 situation is under control for now, hospitals are not overwhelmed, and life is rapidly returning to normal. Thailand is badly struggling. But Thailand & US (where hospitalisations rising) is on amber list & India on red
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I’ve been lucky to enjoy some incredible travel during the pandemic in India. One month ago, we finished the trip of a lifetime, crossing high-altitude mountain passes, trekking in remote wild west
#Zanskar
#Ladakh
#Tourist
#visitindiasoon
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After calling the $200bln Adani Group "deeply overleveraged", Fitch's CreditSights spoke to the company management. Fitch found they made calculation errors but still find leverage ratios elevated and capital structures skewed towards debt "a matter of concern" in 8page report.
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More bad news for Huawei, telecom infrastructure players etc. Jio has developed a complete 5G solution from scratch, ready for trials next year/as soon as spectrum is available
#RelianceAGM
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India could be the next hot spot for Covid-19 and it will have to face it on a shoestring, my latest + a thread about the unique challenges the health crisis poses for poor countries and where India can stand out for good reasons. 1/12
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Deepening commercial links between India and China were supposed to help maintain the peace, instead it is looking like geopolitical and financial battles will feed on each other, my latest
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No end in sight to the problems of state banks.... Punjab National Bank's detected $1.8 bln fraud is c30pct of its market value, and twice the amount PNB is supposed to receive from New Delhi in the recapitalization plan.
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China tech story is so wild right now, India is a logical beneficiary.
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So lucky to live in India, a country the size of a continent. Stunning travel opportunities without having to go overseas during a pandemic. I recently visited
#Hampi
in
#Karnataka
where you can find the ruins of the 14th century Vijayanagara Empire
@incredibleindia
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Stunning views of the Himalayas on the Drukair flight from India into Paro, Bhutan. Everest, Lhotse, and Kangchenjunga (first, third and fourth highest mountains in the world).
#Happynewyear
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Pour yourself a cup of Chai-onomics: The plight of a roadside tea-seller illustrates an accelerated transformation of the Indian economy. The new normal looks grand for a few large companies -- and ugly for the rest caught in the churn
#inequality
#poverty
#formalisation
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Big second wave in
#Bandra
: We have Covid-19 case on the floor upstairs, entire apartment complex opposite just sealed shut for two weeks. And many folks I know have one or two cases in their buildings but folks still queuing up to get inside the Irish House to watch cricket...
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Enjoy the freedoms while they last. This is a fascinating but sobering article for all of us in India who have been wondering if herd immunity is at least part of the reason COVID-19 cases have fallen so dramatically:
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Bravo! And the winner for Women’s Day goes to
@TataCompanies
: Taj Hotel will pay IVF costs for employees in effort to retain female talent. Such treatment can cost $4,000 - twice India’s GDP per capita
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Mukesh Ambani's
#Jio
Platforms is valued at $68 bln and leads the race to be India's all dominant super-app but the prospect of serious competition is being too heavily discounted, my latest India Insight column 1/9
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Cash handouts are gaining traction as one way to manage the coronavirus fallout: Hong Kong residents will get US$1,200 and Australia will give 1/4 of its population $750 each.
#CoronaVirusIndia
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All dominant or a welcome maverick? Mukesh Ambani's $185 bln Reliance wants to serve all the needs of consumers. He’s backed by America’s tech monopolists. Just as the Standard Oil energy cartel birthed U.S. antitrust law, the Indian tycoon will continue to amass power 1/9
Data is the new oil for Mukesh Ambani, India's richest man. He is emerging as a modern Rockefeller, writes
@ugalani
: .
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In Varanasi/Benares,
@narendramodi
and
@BJP4India
gets much acclaim amongst ordinary people for “cleaning up” trash in the city and the river. But the air pollution is simply frightening, saddened to see such a special place shrouded in smog.
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Here’s a pleasing sight you rarely see, anywhere, top five pieces listed under
@FinancialTimes
Opinion section, all by women, and a diverse set too!
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Interesting how global folks have little understanding of the pandemic trajectory beyond US, China, Europe and Australia etc. Not a criticism but an observation. Life in India is almost normal.
Feels strange - but great - to watch cricket from India with a real crowd in the ground; rather than fake crowd noise. I wonder why they think it’s safe? Maybe they think the collective joy is worth the danger?
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Grocery store owner in Bandra wants to buy electric scooter to save on fuel costs. In Mumbai, delivery from mom-and-pop shops is usually free w/o minimum order. Big contrast to the U.K. Noticing more EVs out and about in plush Pali Hill.
@atherenergy
@TatamotorsEV
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The blue blue of the sky, and the dark blue line of the sea = clean air.
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Mumbai's strict lockdown helped to prevent worse pressure on a weak health system. But now this credible study shows 57% of people in slums have already been infected with Covid19. That suggests the restrictions are now impoverishing more than protecting the poor, my latest 1/6
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Bollywood superstar Amitabh Bachchan tests Covid-19 positive. We wish him a speedy recovery, but this sarcasm below touches on a real nerve. The poor and rich may struggle to get a bed. If super rich, well....
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At
@wef
in Delhi
@amitabhk87
said tourism was fastest way to create jobs in India. Meanwhile, politicians disown top draw, the Taj Mahal
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The European faffle over Indian-made AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccines is unpleasant. World is happy to consume Indian-made paracetamol...
#seruminstituteofindia
#fridaymorning
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The march of modernity...returned to Varanasi/Benares after 15 years to find jetskiers and double decker luxury yacht on the Ganges. So many boats with camera wielding (mostly domestic) tourists, Poojari’s can’t see the river they worship during Ganga Aarti!
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I took Tata's Nexon EV for a spin around Mumbai's dusty pot-holed roads to better understand the potential of electric cars in India. It was a surreal experience but the novelty won't last long -- the country is gearing up to enter the fast lane of battery-powered vehicles.
India is gearing up to enter the fast lane of battery-powered vehicles: bigshots from Reliance to Tesla to Uber rival Ola are charged up about the opportunity, writes
@ugalani
. Read the column:
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India’s richest man has been busy cementing that superlative. By pulling billions into his retail business, he's priced up the third pillar of his Reliance empire and result is impressive. 1/4
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Four months of lockdown, and the Mumbai sunsets keep on getting better
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Where was I? Stunning views of rural India on a clear day. Our flight was about 20mins from Mumbai, returning from Singapore. Is this in Maharashtra? If so, where?
@airvistara
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Small glimpse at scary pile of waste being created as a result of Covid-19. Every domestic air passenger in India is given a surgical mask, plastic visor, and middle seat passengers are required to wear a surgical gown. All of this comes in a plastic sleeve too.
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My husband scheduled 2nd vaccine yesterday eve on CoWin when slots opened for +45. Appointment for today. Booked 8pm-ish, cancelled by 9pm. Missed SMS message so noticed now. 2nd dose due, are we going to end up with lots of half vaccinated people?
@mybmc
what do you advise?
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The really wild thing is that crypto adverts run side-by-side with adverts for regulated products like mutual funds. But adverts for mutual funds have more obvious and audible risk disclaimers, so it ends up appearing as if mutual fund investments are riskier than trading crypto!
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India’s former finance minister Arun Jaitley, 66, has passed away. A political giant and close ally of Premier Narendra Modi, history will remember him as the man who helped to pass landmark reforms, the bankruptcy code, and the goods and services tax
#ArunJaitley
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This about-face of sorts is as damaging as the original statement.
Toyota in the morning : Won't invest in India because of 'we don't want you taxes'
Govt in the evening: Toyota WILL invest in India
Toyota, an hour later: ABSOLUTELY, we will!
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@Cold_Peace_
Less than the money they are or were earning, it’s about the money they won’t earn in the future if shut out of a giant growth market. And even more, it’s about how their $110bln valuation will crash as a result. If US follows with a ban, it evaporates!
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If a Mumbai industrialist has this complaint, we are all in trouble. This problem has been going on for weeks even as authorities build out capacity. Capacity is useless without access and staffing resources...
#mumbai
#COVID
If you go to a normal hospital, they ask you for a Covid negative report. If you go to a Covid hospital they ask you for a Covid positive report.
But how do you get the tests done ? First challenge. Next, how do you get a bed in the hospital? All full.
So stay home. Stay safe.
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Any chance of the manufacturing relocating from China to India in the wake of the coronavirus? Perhaps, the opposite. Customers in Europe are telling suppliers of textiles and more in India that they will purchase from China unless factories reopen by the end of the month.
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What's more, travel rules are becoming horribly elitist. CEOs and low level diplomats can fly from India to UK (mostly for meetings that could be conducted virtually or even for holidays) without enduring costly UK hotel quarantine but.....
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....but fully-vaccinated UK citizens or visa holders living in India can't visit and provide support to ailing parents in the UK (something that can't be done virtually) without first being locked up at great expense. I know many people going through this hardship.
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A global shopping contrast...
UK quarantine: Book online delivery slot with supermarket one week ahead of arrival to ensure groceries arrive on time.
India quarantine: Arrive, place orders with fruit, veg & grocery vendors on
@WhatsApp
and have it delivered within an hour.
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India's confidence crisis: Modi forced bureaucrats and bankers to uncover fraud and bad lending practices. Now it is time for him to show India Inc that he will take equally bold steps to put the financial system back on the right track, my latest
Narendra Modi's corruption crackdown went a long way to helping his BJP secure another five years in power. It also chastened tycoons and hurt private investment. A crisis of confidence now hovers over the $3 trillion economy.
@ugalani
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HONG KONG PROTESTER SHOT IN CHEST WITH LIVE BULLET BY POLICE -MEDIA (via Reuters news wire)
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Mukesh Ambani's fiddly $3.4 bln deal to buy his top rival's retail assets is meticulously planned. He's betting the Reliance halo-effect will help win over minority shareholders. Overall it sets up a bigger online fight against big tech from Amazon to Walmart-owned Flipkart 1/6
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Fitch's CreditSights add "From our perspective, Adani's investment plan provides a visible path for debt to increase on the one hand, but a less transparent path for EBITDA to grow".
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World’s largest vaccine maker pleads for the US to act like a global team player to beat the virus. Totally depressing how rich countries have hoarded more pandemic-fighting resources than poorer ones.
Respected
@POTUS
, if we are to truly unite in beating this virus, on behalf of the vaccine industry outside the U.S., I humbly request you to lift the embargo of raw material exports out of the U.S. so that vaccine production can ramp up. Your administration has the details. 🙏🙏
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The vintage car collection of the Pestonji family, owners of the Cherma’s retail outlet
#Hyderabad
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“Something about the average Indian voter’s relative prosperity, optimism, and psychology of their labour participation... was not captured by journalists and academics, who saw what they wanted to see.” Oped by
@manujosephsan
on demon, secularism & more
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I love India. This driver has turned part of his taxi into a greenhouse — check out the plants, pretty brilliant idea!
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I agree with quite a lot of this, international executives on the ground in Davos (who Modi came to woo) haven’t been impressed, despite the fact India had a good story to sell. Missed opportunity.
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Urjit Patel has shown he is no yes-man for New Delhi. Calls for RBI to be given the same power over governance at state banks as private ones. Politicians would do well to listen, my latest
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"Ambani is willing to loosen his grip on his crown jewels to realise his vision. That has precedent. Rival Jeff Bezos of Amazon owns 16% of his NY-listed empire. Ambani still owns almost half of Reliance: that leaves India’s consumer king plenty in reserves"
#RelianceIndustries
Reliance Industries intends to sell 20% of its oil-to-chemicals business to Saudi Aramco, at a healthy $75 billion valuation. The Aramco sale hints at how far Reliance can – and will – go.
@ugalani
writes:
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Modi champion turns critic? Important read from one of the most balanced voices in Indian economic discourse: “The space for independent voices such as mine, who refuse to take partisan sides, is vanishing”
I remain a well-wisher of the BJP and the
@narendramodi
government but I'm more than disturbed by the change in the governance template and the ecosystem surrounding the PM which is increasingly captured by extreme voices. Here I lay bare my concerns.
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The world's most expensive chocolate is now made in India. An fascinating glimpse into the wealth gap of this giant emerging market, my latest
@Fabelle
#ITC
#TrinityTrufflesExtraordinaire
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India is extending a fight with China from the Himalayan mountains into cyberspace. A move to ban 59 apps, including TikTok, narrows a top growth market for Chinese technology firms. But the network effects could be messy all around, my latest
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The other Ambani (Anil) will take his Reliance Communications to bankruptcy — more evidence of seismic shifts in India Inc, as
@arijitbarman76
says, unthinkable a few years ago
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Hong Kong's security law is more specific, stringent, and extra-territorial than expected. Some regional businesses will stay (the charms of HK as a place to live are hard to overstate) and others will leave. Either way, it is a big turning point for the Asian financial hub.
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It's particularly frustrating because many folks in India are vaccinated with the UK's own preferred vaccine -- Oxford's Astrazeneca, known in India as Covishield. So far, that has not turned out to be any advantage.
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Must watch: Australia’s decade old “safety-ism” mentality reaches end point of disgrace. No political will to do anything but hide from the virus until 2024. This isn’t living with the virus, this isn’t normal, comments via
@SkyNewsAust
#IndiaCovidCrisis
#citizenship
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After rising almost 30% on exit poll day, Adani Enterprises is up again another 7% today in pre-trade based on Modi win. It tells us a lot about what investors assume about crony capitalism -- regardless of whether any truth to it.
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Great question to India's central bank chief from
@latha_venkatesh
"are the bank's cartelising on rate cuts?" in terms of passing on benefits for rate cuts....
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Essentially, Huawei is shut out of the second largest telecoms market in the world without the host government having to issue any ban. After Jio's move, hard to believe any of the other 1.5 telecom operators will use any new Huawei infra now...
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