Tom Wright
@thomaswright08
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Senior Fellow @BrookingsFP. contributing writer @TheAtlantic, Formerly Biden NSC, Author of All Measures Short of War, co-author of Aftershocks. Views my own.
Washington DC
Joined June 2008
After almost 3 years, today was my last day at the NSC. Nice to end w/ POTUS’s FP speech. I was v fortunate to work w/ an incredible group of public servants. Thank you @JakeSullivan46 for his leadership. Wishing the next team all the best as they navigate a challenging world.
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Wise counsel on one of the most important strategic decisions facing the United States.
In tomorrow's print edition of the @WSJ, @ChrisRMcGuire and I take on three common arguments against AI export controls offered by Aaron Ginn and others. 1⃣ No, the controls haven't failed. Estimates show the US share of AI compute is up 50%, the PRC share has halved, and
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RT @kxchefsteve: The first NFL Game of the Season hasn't even started. Kalshi just crossed $10M in volume on one game. Prediction marke….
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Hmm.
Vance on undermining the Federal Reserve: "I don't think we allow bureaucrats to make decisions about monetary policy and interest rates without any input from the people that were elected to serve the American people. POTUS is much better able to make these determinations."
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Important piece by my former colleague @jonfiner.
“With the world’s attention focused on Gaza, the situation in the West Bank is sliding toward another crisis,” Jon Finer writes:
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Trump admin’s constraints on Ukrainian long range strikes exceed those of the Biden administration. Will that now change?.
President Trump is 100% correct. Russia is the belligerent party and Ukraine has every right to strike back - and America should stand with it.
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This is v incomplete. The core Russian demand is the “demilitarization” of Ukraine, which is a means of subjugating it. One gets the sense the administration still doesn’t fully understand what the Russians are saying to them. They need to press them on the demilitarization piece.
JD Vance: "Russians want certain pieces of territory, most of which they've occupied but some of which they haven't. So that is really where the meat of the negotiation is. The Ukrainians want security guarantees, the Russians want a certain amount of territory."
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“The Russians…probably have been surprised by a couple of things. One, that they can’t get the U.S. to understand what they’re asking for, and two, that they can’t get the United States to accept it”— my former colleague Nate Reynolds in the WaPo.
washingtonpost.com
Putin’s hard-line approach to resolving the Ukraine conflict doesn’t fit with the White House’s desire for a quick solution.
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As we thought.
After Trump and Witkoff trumpeted the alleged achievement of Russia agreeing to security guarantees for Ukraine, Lavrov says that Russia only agrees to guarantees in which Russia (and China) have a veto, as per the Russian proposal in Istanbul in 2022. That is, nobody is allowed
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RT @TheAtlantic: Trump seems optimistic that peace may be close as terms for a security guarantee emerge, @thomaswright08 argues. But “it’s….
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My @TheAtlantic piece from yesterday on the only credible pathway to peace in Ukraine.
"The only credible guarantee for Ukraine in current circumstances is a national one: that the West would help Ukraine build a force capable of defending the country and deterring a future attack," argues @thomaswright08 in @TheAtlantic:
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Security assurances/ guarantees produced in Budapest. What could go wrong?.
Exclusive: White House eyes Budapest for peace talks with Zelenskyy and Putin
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RT @PhilGordonDC: Honestly can't see how this meeting was a "triumph" for Ukraine or Europe (even if baseline was the Feb. 28 disaster.) Tr….
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Concerning. Huge mistake by Trump to be guided by David Sacks and Jensen Huang on this (as I wrote about here ).
theatlantic.com
The president is setting America back in a race he desperately wants to win.
Reuters: “Nvidia is developing a new AI chip for China based on its latest Blackwell architecture that will be more powerful than the H20 model it is currently allowed to sell there, two people briefed on the matter said.”.
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Why does Trump now oppose a ceasefire? It is the simplest and clearest part to ending the war. Ukraine and Europe on board. Trump could hold an international conference, invite China and the global south and ask for support for a ceasefire to isolate Russia but instead we have.
It’s was healthy that both Chancellor Merz 🇩🇪 and President Macron 🇫🇷 were explicit in calling for a 🇺🇦🇷🇺 ceasefire as the necessary first step. President Trump 🇺🇸 was less than pleased. But there is no route towards peace that doesn’t start with a ceasefire.
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RT @PhilGordonDC: Europeans with Trump today would do well to understand this from @thomaswright08: "The only credible guarantee for Ukrain….
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RT @stephenwertheim: I agree with Tom on this crucial point: "The only credible guarantee for Ukraine in current circumstances is a nationa….
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RT @ulrichspeck: If we talk about "security guarantees", let's talk about security guarantees, not about something else. Here is what "secu….
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After Friday’s summit, the Trump team touted progress on the Russian view of security guarantees but they were almost certainly misreading Putin. My latest in @TheAtlantic .
theatlantic.com
Has the Trump administration misread Moscow?
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My new piece in @TheAtlantic on how Trump is probably misreading Putin and where we are actually at in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations
theatlantic.com
Has the Trump administration misread Moscow?
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His core demands include severe limits on Ukraine’s military and an end to western assistance.
NEW: Putin has demanded Ukraine withdraw from the Donbas as a condition for ending Russia’s war, but told Trump he could freeze the rest of the frontline if his core demands were met. The latest from Alaska, with @ChristopherJM @ak_mack @ChassNews .
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You could have reciprocal constraints but that seems unlikely. Long range capability during peacetime is an important deterrent to future aggression if credible external security guarantees are not on offer (which I assume they will not be).
@thomaswright08 Which side an unconditional ceasefire favors is battlefield dependent and of course always open to interpretation, but it's not hard to see why Ukraine has favored and Russia opposed an unconditional ceasefire over the past several months. On the peace deal, longer convo, but.
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