Superb piece on why Trump cozying up to Pakistan at expense of US relations with India. Modi’s (accurate) public denial that Trump helped defuse recent conflict (in contrast to Pakistan nominating him for Nobel Prize) a big factor. Decisions driven not by interests but by pique.

Sensible thoughts on Finland model for Ukraine by @gideonrachman (and @alexstubb). Another model is West Germany after 1949. It accepted but did not recognize de facto loss of eastern territory (and agreed not to try to re-take it by force) in exchange for recognition,.

Recall that in his interview with Tucker Carlson, Witkoff couldn’t name the five regions of Ukraine Russia had taken, didn’t know that all of them voted for independence from Russia in 1991, and thought Khrushchev had given them all to Ukraine. Details don’t seem to be his forte.

So much for this… As early as Jan 22, Trump threatened “high levels of taxes, tariffs and sanctions” on Russia if it didn’t “settle now and stop this ridiculous war.” More than 6 months later he’s done almost nothing, so no surprise Putin still assumes he can get what he wants.

Indeed Trump’s tougher line on Russia neither worked nor didn’t work but was not tried. He put out notion he was losing patience with Putin but beyond misguided India tariffs he did nothing to add pressure. Instead he seems to be preemptively caving to avoid having to do so.

I spoke to @yarotrof for this excellent deep-dive on Russian oil trade. To have meaningful impact on efforts to end Ukraine war by cutting Russian oil revenues Trump will have to do more than India tariffs. Tools are available—and oil market will tolerate—if Trump willing to use.

Trump is managing to halt India’s divorce from Russia and 25 years of deepening ties with US. Modi is also going to China next month for first time in 7 years after period of deep freeze in relationship w Beijing. Big price to pay for tariffs and trash talk.

Spending past week in Israel did not disabuse me of this conclusion. Netanyahu knows there is no Arab force or non-Hamas/non-PA government waiting in the wings but fears the argument he “left Hamas in power” if he does ceasefire/hostage deal now. But price for this will be high.

He may not want to govern it in the long term, but there are no Arab forces willing or able to take over, and partly due to Israel’s hostility to the PA there is no non-Hamas Palestinian civil authority either. So “taking control” of Gaza actually does mean long-term occupation.

A week later, Awdah Hathaleen’s body has finally been returned to his family. But his alleged killer—whose sanctions for violence and intimidation Trump lifted—was set free and a water pipeline to his village has been cut. Meanwhile Speaker Mike Johnson, US Ambassador Mike.

Which suggests Putin sees Trump’s India tariffs more as leverage for a trade deal with India (including inflated or artificial investment and purchase commitments like those of the EU and Japan) than as a step towards meaningful US efforts to impose costs on Moscow.

Efforts to limit Russia’s revenues welcome but Trump oddly picking bigger fight with India than with Russia itself. Still dragging feet on meaningful pressure (action on shadow fleet, more aid to Kyiv, seizing frozen assets, wider secondary sanctions, join new price cap, etc.).

The likely costs of an Israeli full occupation or annexation of Gaza so vastly exceed the benefits that the only possible explanation is Netanyahu’s desire to preserve his coalition. That would also explain why government pursues it even as so many former IDF and Mossad leaders.

Any one of these steps should be a 5-alarm fire. But has any Republican leader said a word about any of them?.

Days after Israeli settler, whose sanctions by Biden were lifted by Trump, kills a Palestinian activist, the State Dept sanctions…the PA. Trump and others seem more exercised by calls to recognize Palestinian state than by West Bank violence and Gaza.

Seconding all this. Journalist of highest integrity, decency and honesty, needed now more than ever. Looking forward to @talshalev1 next chapter.

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They put the same lie in the official "fact sheet." And worse thing is it is those very American businesses, farmers, and ranchers who will pay most of the $90bn, undercutting their own competitiveness. @Bretbaier knows this too but allows Lutnik to mislead his viewers.

In past 48 hrs Trump insults and punishes India; cancels Taiwan president transit; calls into question Australia nuclear sub deal, and hits EU with 15% unilateral tariffs. It takes years to build allies' trust and confidence but little time to destroy it (which China must love.).