The Money Memo
@themoneymemo
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SEBI-registered Research Analyst. We run two portfolios - US & India. Our edge is AI & Game Theory. Tweets are informational only. 🇺🇸🇮🇳
NYC - BOM
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Pinned Tweet
The US Dollar stands at INR 82.82 as of today.
Ever wonder why the Rupee always depreciates against the Dollar?
Let’s find out in a 🧵:
#USD
#Dollar
#forex
#investing
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@sandipsabharwal
I know it’s fashionable to beat up Kerala because of politics, but we all have to agree that they have the best public health system in the country.
Someone in UP or Bihar might have the new variant and won’t even know it, because testing is not as extensive as Kerala.
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@anandmahindra
Now where will the Hyderabadis go for their H-1Bs 😅 the overseas office is coming to their backyard lol
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@joelsky2
@WallStreetSilv
That’s why he’s a professional consultant. He knows what exactly to do.
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@Akshat_World
Best is to shift to Dubai where you get:
1. A first world city infrastructure
2. Plenty of Indian culture and food
3. Tax-free income
4. A 3-4 hour flight to anywhere in India
5. Easy access to GCC and Central/Eastern Europe for vacations
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@WhingerSpice
@LewisHamilton
@MercedesAMGF1
I was at the race in Qatar, it was Lewis’ fault. He has done that move many times before in his career, but this time it back fired on him because of the angle.
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@AvatarDomy
The Frame or Reference remains the same with the truck moving at a constant speed. Same reason why we end up falling at the same place when we jump from the ground.
The jump needs to be high enough to break the frame of reference to land at a different place.
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@IndianTechGuide
This news is a blessing for many of the rural areas that are still not served by the private players.
Yes they’re late to the party, but an important player in the holistic development of India.
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@aviralbhat
Don’t forget they’re asking for a ₹24000 crore valuation while making a profit of..
..₹22 crore.
This is purely to trap retail, nothing else.
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@Akshat_World
So after all this, you’ll still make your new video about growth stocks in India to hold for the next 10 years? If you have so much negativity about your birth nation why don’t you try shorting the market?
What a fall from grace, Akshat.
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@gemsofbabus_
Love the comments from people who have never been there but rushing to bad mouth it.
Kerala has its own problems, but cleanliness is definitely not one of them. At least when you compare to the rest of India.
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@IndianTechGuide
@darshanpathak
That embarrassing moment when we all have to say:
“Dekh ke lagta hi nahi India hain”
🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️
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UPI transactions in India hit an all-time high of 83.75 billion payments in 2023.
With a staggering 357% CAGR, this tremendous growth in digital payments herald an age of formalisation in the economy.
As more such transactions come under the ambit of taxation, the govt balance
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@dmuthuk
I’ve done 25 days in Europe in 2019 for 4.5 lakhs all inclusive (as a single male). Now of course it’s more expensive, but this post makes absolute sense.
Indian prices don’t make sense for travel anymore.
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@dmuthuk
I haven’t sold a single share since 2013. Invested only in profitable, debt-free companies that everyone knows. CAGR of 21.3% since then and I’m happy getting rich slow.
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@thekaipullai
This is true for most companies. Just look at the ugly abominations plying India’s streets. Now go to Sri Lanka or Thailand to see how aesthetic their cars look.
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@mbrandolph
The dude was looking for a payday, was lowballed by Bezos, nobody else gave a competitive offer, decided to continue working hard hoping for a better check, the company exploded as broadband was getting more common —> eventual success.
All that commitment stuff is just flaff.
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@Nithin0dha
It’s worse for NRIs. SBI and other banks blatantly tell them they won’t do their KYC verification if they won’t start a regular SIP through them.
I was aghast to hear this but this is how the industry works.
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Nifty PE ratio is currently at a very reasonable value of 21.9 even as it trades near ATH.
Since 2021, the Nifty Index has diverged widely with its own PE ratios like never seen before.
Historically, a PE range of 20-25 was considered a fair valuation - but with the Index
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@dmuthuk
Exactly. I have summarized my 14-year investing journey here, so maybe the youngsters can take something positive away from it.
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@AMF1News
I was at the race last night. It was so humid even from the stands, that people were drenched. Nobody wanted to stay back for the concert afterwards, and people were flocking to the shuttle buses and taxis to get the hell out.
I can only imagine what the drivers went through.
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@SanaSecurities
JP Morgan would turn in his grave if he saw this tweet lol.
Banking and payments are completely different.
Revolut has not replaced retail banks or even dented the market share of Visa or PayPal.
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@sidhant
The condescending tone of that host is so repulsive. Completely ignoring EAM’s comments and leading on different tangents because he’s been given a script.
And then they talk about being “independent media”.
Honourable EAM was right on the money on all his responses.
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@ActusDei
@rohatgi_akshat
Neil, wasn’t expecting this from a professional like you.
There’s something called fiduciary responsibility. Would you want YOUR own pension money to be used to invest in loss-making companies?
I really hope you can think a bit better on this and come out with a balanced take.
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@udaykotak
“Supply of quality paper”
New investors will now start buying stock of JK Paper after reading this 😅
“Uday Kotak ne tip diya tha”
But very valid points, all of them!
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@savinfamily
@Schuldensuehner
Hilarious. Your exports didn’t slump, China is deciding to cut their imports from Europe as it decouples. Your exports mean nothing to them, because Europe is still importing the same from China, fuelling their expansion.
Stop trying to bend reality that suits the west.
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@dmuthuk
I have reached a point where my FD interest, dividends and rental income can pay for my monthly expenses. It started off being so small - maybe to buy a beer and then it covered my internet expenses, then afford a holiday and later my own rent. I never expected this to happen.
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@IndianTechGuide
@andymukherjee70
A govt hospital in Kerala.
When a govt hospital in UP looks like this, we can put an end to this debate.
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@abidsensibull
@kapilkumarvijay
My mom’s maid in Kerala draws almost the same salary as an IT fresher. She’s great at her work and happy with her salary.
Not everyone exploits Abid.
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@WLFOFMYST
@balajis
Do you also know that at least 60-70% of them live in poverty? You think crypto is going to be in their minds while panicking where their next meal is coming from? Stop looking at the world with classic American-tinted glasses.
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@dmuthuk
If retail investors make the right choices in equity, most can retire by 2030.
But unfortunately only the 1% will do it.
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One of the major reasons for INR depreciation is India’s massive exposure and dependence on one single commodity:
OIL.
Almost 70% of our imports in value is just crude oil, as we’re the third-largest consumer globally.
There are two ways this affect our economy and currency.
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@dmuthuk
ITC - one of the original surviving members of the Sensex, 5% Dividend yield, consistent profitability and ₹34000 crore of cash and cash equivalents in its war chest for future expansion and acquisitions!
So glad to have accumulated it at 150 levels during 2020.
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@dmuthuk
My first salary was 27000/-. Even then I kept my expenses low and saved around 9000/- which went to LIC (mom’s pressure) and my first SIP.
That was in 2009.
Always look back with gratitude towards those days.
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@IndianTechGuide
Kerala, as always, shines bright.
But due to politics, this state keeps getting vilified.
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@WealthEnrich
IEX - just waiting for the natural gas exchange and carbon credits exchange to go online.
Immense value there.
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@ChanderBhatia01
Same for me. 17 profitable, debt-free companies in my PF. CAGR of 21.3% since 2013. I’m happy with it and intend to continue accumulating.
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@FinanceLancelot
While we’re talking about this right now, JPM is preparing a bid for Deutsche Bank. Just a matter of time.
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@IndianTechGuide
Funny thing is, Kerala, with just 1/6th of the population of UP already has 4 international airports.
But of course nobody talks about it because of politics.
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The P/E ratio is one of the most popular metrics used by investors to screen their stocks.
But have you heard about a better metric to use that’s called “Weapons-grade P/E ratio”? 🔥🔥
Let’s learn what it is in a 🧵:
#Sensex
#investments
#stocks
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I started from a meagre SIP of ₹5000/- and built an 8-figure portfolio.
Are you interested to learn how I did it?
🧵:
#investing
#money
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@IndianTechGuide
This is because India has better access to AED currency from the remittances of NRIs from the GCC.
Whenever an NRI opens an NRE account, AED is deposited and INR is given back.
Whereas USD is more difficult to come by and have to be kept in Forex reserves for a rainy day.
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I asked ChatGPT to write a simple PineScript code to trade Nifty Options.
It works!
Though it's a very simple piece of code, I can teach it to write more complex scripts that can give an edge in algo trading.
Nothing will ever be the same.
#algotrading
#trading
#StockMarket
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@AbhijitDutta23
@sandipsabharwal
Really? Did you know that fatality rate in Kerala was 1.05% when compared to the national average of 1.12%?
Please don’t consume media information blindly.
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@darshitpatel84
Never bet against Mukesh Ambani.
We’re accumulating at current prices and will continue to do so.
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This was a simplified lesson on currency valuation!
There’s more to it, but if you enjoyed it consider liking and RT the first tweet so others can learn something new today!
You may also follow me and check out my podcast 💰The Money Memo 💰here:
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1. Global crude oil market is denominated in USD.
This means we have to sell INR to buy USD in the Forex market first, and then pay the same to OPEC to import oil.
As demand for USD rises, and supply being controlled by The Fed, its value too rises against the INR.
#oilprices
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@SJosephBurns
Emotions are the biggest enemy of a trade. Algo eliminates it. It also eliminates indecision (to buy or not to buy). If you give it a system, it will stick to it no matter what, because it doesn’t know anything else.
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In addition to oil, most international transactions are also settled in USD thereby shooting up its demand for other goods and services.
This is the main reason why India is trying to move away from the hegemony of the dollar and trying out Rupee transactions globally.
#Fed
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@Malone_Wealth
I don’t see a problem. There are tons of funds out there who are holding short positions against US markets, including us. We’re rooting for history to repeat itself. Maybe then American public will wake up to what’s happening.
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Let’s first understand the major players behind the partnership and bit of history.
Jio Fin comes from the stable of Reliance and headed by Isha Ambani - rumoured to be Mr. Ambani’s favourite. Assisting her is the legendary KV Kamath, a former chief of the BRICS NDB Bank.
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@stockifi_Invest
True. I started with 2500/- and have stayed invested for the past 9 years. The results are outstanding. Human mind is not capable to visualise compounding until it happens. Just like COVID numbers.
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As our dependence on oil reduces and our exports start rising, both the above factors will slowly neutralise.
Once that happens INR will start strengthening against the USD 🔥🔥
But remember, INR weakening is not always bad (will be covered in another 🧵).
#IndianEconomy
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@_KiranRajput
I thought you were going to say, “Now that I’m a successful investor, they try to call me all the time for tips” 😅 \s
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@dmuthuk
Refex Industries that makes refrigerant gases is a good stock to invest in for this theme.
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@deepakshenoy
I think the answer is in between the lines.
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@dmuthuk
Hindenburg has said they’ve shorted Adani stocks through US bonds and non-India traded derivatives.
Which means they can’t keep holding the short if the FPO goes through at a higher price band - the margins required would be too high.
The timing of the report suggests the same.
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@KiranRajput_
Great buys! ITC is my PF stock as well. Thanks to
@dmuthuk
I accumulated it in 5 figures during 2020 at 150 levels. Great wealth creator, all the dividends also invested back.
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@Schuldensuehner
Misleading. China has CUT imports from Germany and rest of Europe as it decouples from the west. Meanwhile, Europe and the US are importing more or less the same from China.
Remember, your exports to China is an EXPENSE on them and they’re shutting it down.
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India’s GDP per capita historical chart looks very similar to the EPS graph of a multi bagger stock.
The turnaround has been so stark after years of stagnant growth, especially after 2000.
The forecast for further growth is steep but predictable, something that’s very
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Isha Ambani has stellar credentials - she’s a graduate of Yale and a postgraduate from Stanford. Those are literally the best business schools in the world.
KV Kamath was the successor to Narayana Murthy at Infosys and was the main architect behind ICICI Bank.
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@dark_chicago
@oulosP
Indians always immigrate legally and contribute to the economies of the countries they go to. They’re also the first to absorb the culture and be law-abiding citizens in any country they go to.
There are no Indian gangs anywhere, unlike the rest of the immigrants.
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When BlackRock started up in a single room office with 8 people in 1988, the AMC landscape in the US was already very mature. The biggest AMCs during that time:
1. Goldman Sachs
2. T.Rowe Price
3. Vanguard
4. State Street
5. SS&C Advent
6. American Century
7. Bessemer Trust
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Now let’s come back to Jio Fin. Their lending portfolio as of Jan 2024 are identified as follows:
1. Secured lending for electronics with a Device-as-A-Service (DaAS) model
2. Supply chain financing for trade & commerce
3. Lending against shares & mutual funds
All three are
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@bhogleharsha
South Indians still have to deal with the same when they go to the north of their own country. It’s the ugly truth.
And that’s easily the reason why the Brits could even colonise us in the first place.
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More complex Python scripts by ChatGPT.
I asked it to write code to calculate RSI of a stock and place a buy order if RSI>60, and calculate profit.
If profit>5% or loss>2%, the code will place a sell order for the stock and exit the trade.
So cool!
#trading
#OpenAIChatGPT
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@dmuthuk
This is good enough to understand why he says so. Plain, boring investing always wins in the long term.
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@thekaipullai
Here’s what he needs:
1. Mkt the ghee with a fancy name. Have “organic” in title.
2. Movie star promottion( someone young) and declare a stake
3. Find a VC firm (ideally SoftBank) to buy a small stake for publicity
4. Say you accept crypto for payments
5. File IPO at ₹40000 cr
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@IndianTechGuide
Lulu Group is promoted by a Malayali named Mr. Yussuf Ali.
I hope petty politics don’t come to play in between this amazing project and the opportunities it will provide to Gujarat’s people.
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@ANI
Indian embassies and consulates need to form a security agency like the Bureau of Diplomatic Security of the US. Those guys don’t screw around if the security of buildings or other assets are threatened. And since it’s considered sovereign Indian territory, Indian laws apply.
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Mama Earth is a popular baby care & skin care company with organic products.
It recently announced its plans for an IPO, seeking a valuation of $3 billin.
There's just one problem.
Let's find out in a 🧵:
#mamaearth
#StockMarket
#ipoalert
#investing
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@FortAwesome451
@Schuldensuehner
Putin and Xi have already discussed the BRICS reserve currency provisionally called the R5 (Real, Ruble, Rupee, Renminbi and the Rand) that will act as a kind of SDR for mutual trade. Russia is already the gas station of India and China so this will play out nicely for them.
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Even in such a crowded space, founder Larry Fink and team quadrupled their assets within ONE YEAR.
In 2006, just 18 years after founding, BlackRock crossed $1 trillion in AUM.
It’s safe to say that they know a thing or two about scaling up in the AM space.
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Now let’s look at BlackRock - the world’s largest asset management company (AMC).
It manages $9.42 trillion worth of assets, or 3x the GDP of India.
Their managers are on the board of every major corporation in the U.S influencing decisions.
An unparalleled corporate network.
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Last week, India approved $30 billion for three major defence acquisitions that includes fighter jets, attack helicopters and heavy guns.
At a CAGR of 4.5%, the defence budget is expected to hit ~$100 billion by the end of this decade.
With most of these contracts earmarked for
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2. Over dependence on oil imports makes INR vulnerable, affects Balance of Payments.
Imagine having a currency and economy that’s fragile to the price movement of just one commodity: it brings down its value by default.
In addition, having a high import bill that cannot be
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@stockifi_Invest
PE below 20 is a better metric as Indian markets have always been expensive.
Another important metric is Debt-to-Equity ratio less than 1.
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There’s no way Mr. Ambani is going to let her daughter fail, and will put his full force and support in making sure Jio Fin takes off the ground and flourishes.
The partnership with BlackRock is intended to help the firm go global once it finds its footing in India.
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In 2023, I corrected the biggest financial mistake that I did at as a 24 year-old.
Exited my first real estate investment at a marginal profit of a few lakhs.
A project in Pune that yielded me less than 4.5% CAGR. Would have been better off investing that in an index fund.
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@sundarpichai
Why not with HCL, an Indian home-grown company, if you really wanted to make a difference to India and its students.
HP is a US company and you’re partnering with them for pricing benefits and your own bottom lines - just say it as it is instead of virtue signalling.
It’s okay.
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@Parody_acounts
Why being sorry for Kerala? It’s much better than the rest of the country when it comes to civic sense.
But of course Sri Lanka is even better. CBD Colombo looks like a European city.
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@FinFloww
Honestly, one the worst threads from you. You guys are better than this. You have said nothing by saying so much about the actual reason.
It’s a poor decision by Tata to effect the merger too soon, before the old guard at Air India has been completely dismantled. By merging
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@KiranRajput_
I come in this category.
Started investing consistently in 2013 with just 5000/-.
5 MFs and 17 profitable, mostly debt-free stocks.
Emergency fund in FDs, PPF and NPS at 1.5L and 50k for tax-efficiency.
50k every year into SGBs.
Getting rich slow is enough.
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balanced by our exports means that India has a large current account deficit (CAD).
A large CAD is considered a negative and results in lower foreign investment.
For e.g., China has a current account surplus due to a high manufacturing base, resulting in a stronger Yuan.
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@SarangSood
Never forget the 90-90-90 rule of Anton Kreil.
90% of traders lose 90% of their capital in 90 days.
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A lower foreign investment means that there’s a lower demand for INR.
Why?
Because higher foreign
#investment
in India require the FIIs to convert their USD to INR to
#invest
which would increase the demand (and hence value) of the Rupee.
#investing
#StockMarket
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@SachinKalbag
I always do this when I’m waiting at a branch and nobody is interested to see me. I immediately get attention and then I tell them real reason.
Classic bait and switch.
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