Aviral Bhatnagar
@aviralbhat
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New India:
- Uber driver
- Watching IPL live
- Flawless streaming
- Tuned into Jio Cinema
- TV added in a low-priced car
We don't appreciate how incredible this in a "developing" country
India tech is transforming employment, entertainment and comfort
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Fastest growing languages in the United States in the last 10 years:
1. Telugu (150%)
2. Arabic (62%)
3. Hindi (61%)
4. Urdu (45%)
5. Chinese (35%)
6. Gujarati (31%)
100% Asian dominance, but Telugu absolutely surprised
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Ravish Kumar's YouTube has rocketed to 89 lakh subscribers, bigger than India Today
His channel is now more than half of NDTV's 1.6 Cr, with orders of magnitude higher engagement
While NDTV's videos do ~10K on day 1, Ravish does 10 lakh
Stars no longer need media houses
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Ravish Kumar reportedly earned 6-7 Cr a year at NDTV
His newly launched YouTube is doing 38M views/month with 5M subs
At $4 per 1000 views, that's about $150K a month or 1.2Cr
He is pulling 15Cr just by YouTube ads, due to his engagement
TV stars no longer need media houses
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Indian Subcontinent:
- Pakistan: Bankrupt
- Sri Lanka: Bankrupt
- Afghanistan: Bankrupt
- Bangladesh: Crisis
- Nepal: Crisis
- Bhutan: India supported
- India: World's fastest growing large economy
No geographical neighbourhood globally has such large scale distress and growth
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My friend from the US saw me using UPI for a payment and said that "it's from outer space"
India is truly light years ahead of most of the world in its digital finance infrastructure
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US:
Barbie: $351M
Oppenheimer: $174M (0.5x)
India:
Barbie: 35 Cr
Oppenheimer: 84 Cr (2x)
I think Barbie did the reverse in India because it is yet another Bollywood movie, only with American people
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Habits that changed my life:
1. Sleeping before 12 AM
2. Drinking more water
3. Running everyday
4. Gym 5 days/week
5. Reading everyday
6. Writing every week
7. Zero sugar
8. Heavy breakfast, light dinner
9. Phone < 90 mins / day
10. Being grateful
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Just 56 of 1200+ unicorn founders in the US are dropouts:
Dropouts: 4.2%
Bachelor's: 36.7%
Masters: 37.4%
PHD: 21.6%
You are 5x more likely to be a unicorn founder as a PhD than a dropout
Always remember, popular narratives focus on exceptions
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Zerodha's own funds are allocated:
- 33% fixed deposits
- 32% equities
- 13% to government securities
- 13% gold bonds
- 9% tax free bonds
India's largest brokerage with all info access has the highest allocation to FDs, advocated as the worst investment
Tells you something
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Habits that changed my life:
1. Sleeping before 12 AM
2. Drinking more water
3. Running everyday
4. Gym 5 days/week
5. Reading everyday
6. Writing every week
7. Zero sugar
8. Heavy breakfast, light dinner
9. Phone < 90 mins / day
10. Being grateful
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This year:
9-year-old BYJU's bought 32-year-old Aakash
4-year-old Groww bought 14-year-old Indiabulls mutual fund
3-year-old BharatPe bought 37-year-old PMC Bank
7-year-old Pharmeasy bought 25-year-old Thyrocare
Indian tech has truly come a long way.
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India's 2021 Education Budget: $13Bn
BYJU's 2021 Acquisition Budget: $13Bn
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India's great contradiction is that the shortest belt accounting for 50% of India's economic activity has no overlap with the shortest belt accounting for 50% of population
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IIT Delhi founder top 10 unicorns:
Flipkart ($18B)
Zomato ($8B)
Meesho ($5B)
OfBusiness ($5B)
Delhivery ($3B)
Udaan ($3B)
Groww ($3B)
BharatPe ($3B)
Policy Bazaar ($3B)
UpGrad ($2.5B)
20 unicorns, $75B+ value, 3 public tech cos, India's largest exit
All from 1 college
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Market cap of top Indian groups:
Tata: ~$270B
Adani: ~$240B
Reliance: ~$210B
Net worth of family owners:
Adani: $152B (1st)
Reliance: $92B (2nd)
Tata: $0.5B (433rd)
Adani/Reliance run by wealthy tycoons while Tata is effectively run by a charity
Tata plays a different game
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Shilpa Shetty's 0.75Cr investment in Mamaearth could be worth 80Cr if it IPOs at its target of ~$2Bn
100x from 2018 to 2023, a 150%+ rate of return
Influencers taking stakes in startups instead of cash is common today, but Shetty was the pioneer
Life changing exit even for her
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FastTag is the quiet UPI:
FY17: 660 Cr
FY18: 3,300 Cr
FY19: 5,760 Cr
FY20: 11,290 Cr
FY21: 22,700 Cr
FY22: 38,041 Cr
FY23: 70,000 Cr
100x in the last 6 years, saving thousands of crores in fuel and time
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Zomato:
2020: "Inherently unprofitable!"
2021: "Model cannot make a profit!"
2022: "Half its listing valn because it loses 1,000 Cr!"
2023: Hits profitability.
13-year big win not just for Zomato but for the startup ecosystem
Pessimists sound smart, optimists build to win
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UPSC attempt limit being reduced from 6 to probably 2 would save a lot of grief and better employ a sizeable young population
Incredible that people spend best young years attempting an exam that they may not be fit
JEE keeping attempts limited to 2 years was the best thing
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Personal update: Got married to the love of my life this year 🙂
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Haldiram's is an incredible story:
Founded in 1937 as a family shop
Split into 3 warring families in 90s
Unified under 1 brand in 2000s
$1Bn+ revenue, 80+ countries today
$100MM+ profit, $3Bn valn.
Bigger than Pepsi; McD + Dominos in India
Built for India, selling to the world
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My wife left our home in Pune and I left the hotel in Bangalore to reach Bangalore airport at the same time
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Japan has more than 30,000 businesses that are 100 years old, the highest in the world
The reason they survived so long is not that they grew large and dominant, but remained small and specialized
They gave up speed and growth for sustainability, with one lasting 1000 years
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SRK has done 1150 Cr from Jawan and 1050 Cr from Pathaan
If he does another 1000 Cr with Dunki, 3200 Cr would be almost as much as PVR Inox earned in FY23
3000 Cr/yr would put SRK films in the top 350 Indian companies by revenue
SRK is an astonishing entertainment juggernaut
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In bull runs, everyone is Warren Buffett
In bear runs, everyone quotes Warren Buffett
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US in public: "India is an ally, and we have major issues with China"
US on the ground:
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Vellore Institute of Technology is ranked outside the top 10 engineering colleges in India
The private institute generated revenue of 1,300 Cr in 2020, higher than almost every edtech firm's revenue
More striking is its profitability, 38% PAT of 500Cr, almost 0 debt
Crazy
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Uncool things that are going to become cool again:
- Having a job
- Investing in FDs
- Going to college
- Getting an MBA
- Listening to your parents
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20 Books to read in your 20s:
Principles
Shoe Dog
Hard Things
0 to 1
Sapiens
Capital
Meditations
Laws of Power
Thinking Fast
Hitchhiker's Guide
Genome
Moral Animal
Alex Ferguson
Siddhartha
Mastery
Range
No Rules
Silk Roads
Psychology of Money
Innovation & Entrepreneurship
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Revenue in FY13:
Zomato: 11 Cr
Domino's India: 1,407 Cr
Revenue in FY23:
Zomato: 7,079 Cr (700x)
Domino's 5,200 Cr (3.5x)
Selling shovels in a gold rush more explosive than selling gold
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The picture of homeless people on the left is San Francisco, of gleaming offices is of Bengaluru
We are so used to seeing Western media portray the reverse that it can shock to see poverty in the US
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Netflix Market Cap:
Start of Pandemic: $154B
Peak: $310B
Today: $154B
The pandemic is over
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Indian Education Budget: $13Bn
BYJUs Sponsorship Budget for Sporting Events: $13Bn
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Sundar Pichai is worth ~$1B
Larry + Sergey are worth $220B, $110B each
Google went from $320B to $1.7Tn in Sundar's tenure, a 6x increase with ~$1.4T added
Sundar is comparable to Larry/Sergey in impact, yet 1/100th of wealth
Founder risk hugely valuable
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India may be the only country in the world where its biggest exponential tech platform was founded by a government body
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Saudi Arabia is now the 6th largest country by market cap, surpassing India and reaching $3T
Just one co, Saudi Aramco, accounts for $2.1T or 70% of the entire market cap
Aramco's revenue of $360B is gigantic, but its insane profit of $242B is 2x Apple
Absolute monopoly
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Indian viewers by OTT type seem to have Netflix losing:
- Hotstar: 45M
-Amazon Prime Video: 20M
-Netflix: 6M
But revenue by OTT type has Netflix winning:
-Netflix: 1,700 Cr
-Hotstar: 1,500 Cr
- Prime: 1,300 Cr
Businesses aren't as simple as just looking at the user base
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MIT students had a hard time-solving IIT JEE problems in a video I saw
Ironically, the only person who was getting them right was a JEE ranker who skipped IIT to go to MIT
IITs have talent, but not the access or resources of an MIT
Resources will solve for talent migration
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EdTech in 2016: We will replace coaching classes with technology
EdTech in 2022: We will replace coaching classes with coaching classes
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We talk very little about UPI - it is probably the most incredible Indian tech story of the last few years
World class
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Satya Nadella became the CEO of Microsoft exactly 8 years ago:
- Market Cap: $300Bn to $2Tn
- Revenue: $86B to $190B
- Profits: $22B to $63B
- Dominance: OS to OS, Cloud, Games
- Perception: Legacy to Big Tech
Game-changing CEO
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Zoom Market Cap at:
Pandemic Start: $30Bn
Max: $180Bn
Today: $30Bn
The pandemic is over
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Standard of living in India with a 40L+ income is higher than someone earning $150K in SF
Especially in the West or South, domestic help is available, it's safer, saving is easier, jobs abound, sentiment is positive, country is growing
Biggest bonus is family is around
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Nice IIT degree bro but India's top 3 unicorn founders don't have one
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IIM Mumbai now exists, and the most interesting part is it shares a wall and a lake with the IIT
Probably the only IIT-IIM combination in the country where you can graduate by crossing a wall
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Satya Nadella is worth $1Bn
Bill Gates is worth ~$135B + ~$50B to charity
Microsoft went from $270Bn to $2.5T in Satya's tenure, a 10x increase with ~$2T added
Nadella is comparable to Gates in impact, yet 1/100th of wealth
Founder risk hugely valuable
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55% of Indigo crew calls sick on the day Air India does its recruitment drive
800 of the 1,600 flights were delayed
Tata's newest acquisition Air India will probably be attractive due to the Tata's legendary culture
Culture eats strategy and execution for breakfast
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Daily transactions on payment networks
UPI in 2016: 0.06M
Visa in 2016: 380M
UPI in 2022: 205M
Visa in 2022: 597M
Pretty insane how UPI has gone from 0.02% of Visa's scale to 35% of Visa's scale in 6 years
Visa in 200 countries, UPI in just 1
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If Elon Musk is looking for glorious incompetence, years of mismanagement and potential to unlock, he should just buy Manchester United
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If your parents would have invested 50,000 in Apollo Hospitals instead of spending it on your delivery in 1999, it would be worth 2.2 Cr today
Don't be born, get it invested instead
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Taxpayers in India:
FY14: 53M
FY15: 57M
FY16: 62M
FY17: 69M
FY18: 74M
FY19: 85M
FY20: 83M
FY21: 84M
Tax paid has gone up to 27lakh crore or $300Bn
India pays as much tax as the GDP of Pakistan
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3-year-old BharatPe acquiring 37-year-old PMC Bank shows how far Indian fintech has come, yet again.
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India exports more software ($133Bn) than Saudi Arabia exports oil ($113Bn), with the largest engineering population in the world
What an amazing story that was seeded 40 years ago, and has huge potential to go further
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India's GDP per capita was 70% of Pakistan's in 1992
In fact, the average Pakistani was richer than the Indian till 2004
Today, India's GDP per capita is 50% higher than Pakistan's
Pakistan today has $3Bn of reserves India has $600Bn, India's GDP is 10x
Good governance wins
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You now understand why Satya Nadella is one of the greatest tech CEOs of this generation
Kept Altman in the fold, kept the transition as neat as possible, managed the chaos and the wild board decision making, didn't destroy OpenAI
What a boss move
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Ather sold 8,200 scooters in October
Assuming an average price of 1.2L, that is ~96Cr of sales in a month
Ather is now a ~1,000Cr revenue brand, one of the rare startups to get there
Even rarer for a manufacturing heavy company that takes years to build
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The US printed $4.2Tn of money in the last 3 years and lent it to everyone to have a good time
The world is now going to pay it all back painfully through inflation
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Ramesh Chauhan bought Bisleri from Italian entrepreneur Felice Bisleri for 4 lakh in 1969
Chauhan sold Bisleri to Tata for 8,000 Cr in 2022
200,000x multiple, a 26% rate of return over 53 years, while inflation has 45x
Iconic brand and wealth created only via entrepreneurship
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Haldiram's is an incredible story:
Founded in 1937 as a family shop
Split into 3 warring families in 90s
Unified under 1 brand in 2000s
$1Bn+ revenue, 80+ countries today
$100MM+ profit, $3Bn valn.
Bigger than Pepsi; McD + Dominos in India
Built for India, selling to the world
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India's 3 largest startups by valuation are:
PayTm
BYJUs
OYO
None of them is "from the IITs". One of them dropped out of college.
"Pedigree" could open doors but building large companies has no correlation.
There is no playbook - only ambition, hunger and hustle.
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"Comfort will ruin your life" - said by some dude tweeting from an iPhone sitting in an AC room having just ordered a 700 Rs Pizza from Zomato
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We talk very little about UPI - it is probably the most incredible Indian tech story of the last few years
World class
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Kerala's poorest district Malappuram has a per capita income of 1.6L, while Bihar's richest district Patna is 1.3L
Bihar's richest district is poorer than Kerala's poorest, with Kerala 5x richer per person
India is a continent of different economies masquerading as states
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UPI fraud at $25M/month seems high, till you see the denominator of $111Bn
That's less than 0.025%
Global credit card fraud is $30B on a base of $4T annually, which is around 0.75%
30x more than UPI
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Tirupati has real estate assets across 960 properties worth 85,000Cr
DLF is India's largest real estate developer with assets worth 60,000Cr
A single temple trust holds more real estate than India's largest RE developer
Religion has incredible power to raise wealth
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Top Indian cities for GRE test takers:
1. Hyderabad: 25K
2. Guntur: 9K
3. Mumbai: 6K
4. Bangalore: 6K
5. Vijayawada: 4K
6. Pune: 4K
7. Chennai: 3K
8. Delhi: 3K
9. Vizag: 3K
10. Khammam: 2K
Truly becoming the United States of Andhra
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Top Finance apps globally:
🇮🇳 PhonePe
🇮🇳 PayTm
🇺🇸 GPay
🇺🇸 PayPal
🇧🇷 NuBank
🇮🇳 Bajaj Finserv
🇰🇾 Binance
🇨🇳 Alipay
🇮🇳 Yono SBI
🇺🇸 Cash App
UPI is driving Indian apps to the top, finance is the only category with such Indian dominance
Yono and Bajaj Finserv huge surprises
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India's middle class is not someone who earns 3L/mo or even 1L/mo
50th percentile income or "middle class" is someone who earns 9K/mo
Zomato's delivery execs are upper middle class or 80th percentile when they earn 15K/mo
Upward mobility is why they + so many move to cities
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Highest average travel time for 10 km:
🇬🇧 London: 36.3 min
🇮🇳 Bengaluru: 29.1 min
🇮🇪 Dublin: 28.5 min
🇯🇵 Sapporo: 27.6 min
🇮🇹 Milan: 27.5 min
🇮🇳 Pune: 27.3 min
🇷🇴 Bucharest: 27.3 min
🇵🇪 Lima: 27.1 min
🇵🇭Manila: 27 min
🇨🇴Bogota: 26.3 min
India only one with 2, Pune a shocker
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I'm privileged to be born in India
Few would expect to feel privileged when born in a developing, poor, imperfect country. It's also why only a few are looking at India seriously
Here are 10 reasons why India is the place to be for the coming decades:
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Tata buying Winstron's iPhone facility for 4,000Cr could be the beginning of a TCS for hardware, from India to the world
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2 weeks ago on 24 Oct:
- India was flying, and Pakistan close to elimination
- Twitter was a public company
- FTX was worth $32B
- Rishi Sunak was yet to be PM
- FB had 83,000 employees
"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"
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UPI transactions will be killed the moment the government explicitly starts using that data for tax purposes
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TCS plans to hire 100,000 new employees by 2022, while the entire Indian startup ecosystem hired 20-25K
TCS's attrition rate of 15% means ~90K folks leave the company every year
With an employee base of 550K+, it employs 3x of India's startups
Human capital machine
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There's a reason why Zuckerberg is not creating YouTube videos on "how to be a millionaire before 25" or Bezos doing "how to pursue your passion"
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India: "We are digitally far ahead, as you can pay anywhere lightning fast using your phone"
Also India: "Please take out your belt, wallet, caps, socks, phones, wires, because we can't better X-Ray machines for the airport"
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Facebook's move into Meta was likely driven by Apple
Apple's "Do Not Track" policy is a big blow to Facebook's revenue, costing $10Bn
The Metaverse is a move realizing that FB doesn't own its own hardware + OS like Apple
FB needs to own the OS of the future, for ads
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Largest Lithium reserves globally in tonnes:
1. Chile: 8M
2. India: 5.9M
3. Australia: 2.7M
4. Argentina: 2M
5. China: 1M
0.5M tonnes produced in 2022, EVs could push demand to 2M by 2030
Lithum Carbonate is worth ~$75K/ton, 12x 2019
India suddenly no 2 for a lucrative market
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Salaries of teachers in:
Top pre-school: 15L
Top IIT coaching class: 1.5Cr
Preschool has arguably 10x long-term development impact on a child than coaching, yet salary is opposite
Deeper truth is people pay up for immediate, tangibles rather than long-term, intangible outcome
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IIT JEE and UPSC are probably the biggest enablers of upward mobility in the world, because there is no way the wealthy can buy their way to a seat
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US outsources services to India, manufacturing to China and inflation to the world
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SBI is run rating at 240,000 Cr of revenue, and 56,000 Cr of profit
India's 7,500 fintech startups that are trying to disrupt banks make ~160,000 Cr of revenue, less than SBI
SBI is so large its profit is 10x Zerodha's revenue
Real giant that works well and hard to disrupt
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Total population of Ukraine: 44M
Total number of retail investors globally: 400M
Total population of people caring about what happens in Ukraine: 444M
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-Wake up at 4:30 AM
-Meditate quietly for 15 mins
-Drink a glass of water
-Read a book till 5:30 AM
-Do a quick run till 5:50 AM
-Hit the gym at 6 AM
-Ready for the day at 6:30 AM
I don't do any of this
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IITs are truly magical because they are able to put small-town kids with limited means, but big dreams on paths to greatness
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Cities I think will drive India's growth in the next decade:
- Pune
- Bangalore
- Hyderabad
- Jaipur
- Chennai
- Surat
- Indore
- Nagpur
- Vijaywada
- Chandigarh
Lots of "Tier 2" cities will transform into Tier 1s or even sprawling metros
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Only Elon can buy 10% of a world-changing company with 300M+ users just because he wants to reform it
Money can buy you a lot of things, including free speech
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JEE AIR 1 Mridul "wants to pursue Computer Science Engineering from IIT Bombay and start his own start-up once he graduates"
When ambitious Indian middle-class parents and kids want to do something, it has become mainstream
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A 106 page, 32,000 word report can bring down $42B of market cap of companies run by Asia's richest man
The power of the written word can never be underestimated
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Flipkart's acquisition of PhonePe for $20M has now turned into a $12Bn fintech beast, a 600x return in 7 years
It is probably a better return on acquisition than Google's acquisition of YouTube ($1B → $180B) and Facebook's acquisition of Instagram ($1B → $150B)
Iconic bet
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Air India has acquired 470 Boeing and Airbus aircraft
Assume 150 passengers flying/plane that is ~70K passenger capacity
Each plane flying 2x/day, that is ~150K daily passengers
Air India expects to fly 54M passengers, or ~40% of India's present load
Ultra optimistic
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Code talks to machines
Stories talk to humans
Math talks to the universe
Master all 3, and you will be unstoppable.
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IIT Bombay apparently had 36% unplaced, now IIT Madras apparently has 45% unplaced
30-40% of of IITians in total end up going abroad, placed off campus, preparing for UPSC or starting up
None of them do placements
Unplaced %age is probably close to 5%, which is normal
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Google invested $5Bn in Jio in 2020 and is now investing $1Bn in Airtel
As part of its "$10Bn digital future", it's deployed $6Bn in Telecom monopolies rather than startups
The future as per a global monopoly is to enable local monopolies
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This robbery happened in broad daylight in UP, with the guy on the footpath looking on like it was a normal day
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