Brumby
@the_brumby
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heterodox thinker; views my own. here to learn and, more recently, to share. covid, politics, society, markets
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Pinned Tweet
@LisaMarieBoothe
It’s clear at this point that lockdowns simply do not work. Here are 62 studies
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“there is no evidence that more restrictive nonpharmaceutical interventions (“lockdowns”) contributed substantially to bending the curve of new cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, or the United States in early 2020”
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Sweden's 7-day average COVID deaths have been at ZERO for about a month now.
I feel like its only a matter of time before the very existence of a place called Sweden is scrubbed from the internet.
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1 in 13 deaths from Swine Flu were in children. We did nothing.
1 in 1300 deaths *with* COVID are in children. We ruined their lives.
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Your child must wear a mask that doesn’t work to stop a virus less serious to them than historical respiratory risks until they can get a vaccine they dont need that fails to prevent transmission to teachers/parents who have already been vaccinated anyway
Is that where we’re at?
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Feels like a good time to remind people that 1.8 million kids in Sweden attended school in-person maskless through the height of the 2020 spring pandemic. There were 0 Covid deaths among children & teachers had lower risk than other non-health professions. This is all bullshit.
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In the last ~45 days millions of Americans have had a cold, taken a test to find out the cold was caused by Covid, realized there is absolutely no benefit to themselves or society of having confirmed such information, & perhaps r beginning to wonder what the hell we've been doing
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This will be my first and possibly last tweet (thread) as I am mostly here to learn. It is prompted by a recent study questioning lockdown efficacy that is getting a lot of attention. It appears people believe it to be the first of its kind, but I have been collecting similar
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If you are wondering why all the "experts" are now subtly casting doubt on the efficacy of masks: "cloth masks and other fabric materials tested in the study had 40–90% instantaneous penetration levels"
In other words, they do nothing, as we observed IRL for the past 16 months
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Hot take: Joe Rogan did not sail through COVID because of Ivermectin. He sailed through it because he doesn’t live in a nursing home.
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"Lockdown until a vaccine" was an abysmal myopic strategy
"Lockdown even after vaccine" defies all comprehension
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I do not have a political party affiliation & I have a history of voting both blue & red
However, for the rest of my life, I will NEVER vote for a politician who has ever supported lockdowns or school closures. Admittedly, this narrows the field
How many others feel the same?
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Another day, another European country embarrassing the US with its rational child COVID policies (this time courtesy of Norway):
First, and most importantly: "Children under 12 years are not recommended to use face masks"
1/10
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Lockdowns don’t actually work (see pinned tweet). One reason is that it’s preposterous to think one can just halt an interwoven societal fabric. So “lockdown” is instead just poor people risking exposure to continue providing goods/services to rich people sheltering in place.
1/
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Reflecting on Fauci emails, my biggest takeaway is degree to which overall dialogue on the pandemic was controlled & censored mostly by BigTech/Media. But also by the left, which has become increasingly & strangely anti-free speech. This isn’t “muh freedoms”…this cost lives
1/7
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When COVID hit, I began hearing rumblings of a book called Unrestricted Warfare, written by 2 former Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) senior colonels & published by PLA
In short, it describes what war will look like in a post-nuclear, mutually assured destruction, age
1/17
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As the world begins to accept that the origin of COVID 19 was the subject of a massive cover-up and disinformation campaign jointly orchestrated by the CCP and WHO, it is time to face another fact:
So was the origin of "lockdowns"
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The US's COVID mortality per mil is 2,067 vs 1,459 in Sweden
Miraculously, the conclusion drawn by the experts and the media appears to be that if the USA had only masked and locked down harder, we could have achieved similar results to Sweden, which did neither of those things.
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If someone awoke from a 2yr coma and toured the USA, they would intuit there must be a peculiar virus circulating w a 20% fatality rate that only affects children and only in Democrat-leaning cities & that transmits via extraordinarily large particles subject to cloth obstruction
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CDC estimates that as of June 42% of kids had been infected w COVID. This was before the significant delta wave; surely its at least 60-70% now
The obvious takeaways should be:
-masks did nothing
-most kids were already infected but its too mild to notice
-they don't need a vax
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Sweden: No excess death in 15-44 age range
UK: Significant excess death in 15-44 age range
What did UK do that Sweden did not that might affect young healthy people at ~zero risk from COVID?
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studies since March 2020. Below are 30 published papers finding that lockdowns had little or no efficacy (despite unconscionable harms) along with a key quote or two from each:
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It is my estimation that "stay home if you're sick" would have produced an equivalent outcome to the absolute insanity we have witnessed over the last 18 months.
It is also my estimation this "response" has cost $24Trillion ($9T lost GDP+$14T fiscal spend).
Let that sink in.
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The insanity continues, and so shall my rants...
1/20
1. CDC: as long as you muzzle your 3 year old in California, no vaccinated adults at a weeklong sex party in Massachusetts will have an asymptomatic positive PCR test
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In finding Swedish child seroprevalence yesterday, I spent some time on their Public Health site and—WOW—what a breath of fresh air. They actually tell …the truth… instead of fomenting panic. Let’s take a look at some highlights & compare to USA
1/12
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Is anyone else tired of watching unelected "public health" bureaucrats that could not withstand 5 minutes of cross-examination from members of the general public dictate every aspect of their life, ruin their children's futures, and crash the functional systems of human society?
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The CDC has altered its page showing age-stratified risk of hospitalization & death to obscure the negligible threat to kids. 1st image is prior chart, 2nd is current
They changed the ref group from 5-17 to 18-29, but simply put <1x for kids when it should be 0.1x (eg for death)
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1.
“there is no evidence that more restrictive nonpharmaceutical interventions (“lockdowns”) contributed substantially to bending the curve of new cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, or the United States in early 2020”
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If there were a brand new Alzheimer's vaccine available, would you immediately force it upon children or wait 50 years until they might actually be susceptible to the condition it "prevents" and robust long term safety data is produced?
What if half of kids were already immune?
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Periodic reminder that if the top 1% had not increased their wealth by $13trillion over the course of the pandemic, all COVID theater would have disappeared long ago.
These r the ppl dictating policy. This is why the "state of emergency" continues. This is why children r masked.
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If you think a local lockdown in Wuhan in January 2020 eradicated COVID from all of China—and only China—when it had already been spreading around the entire globe since Fall 2019 at the latest, I encourage you to think a little harder.
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Dear fellow parents: you all brought children into this world with no guarantees as to their safety, health, or ability to thrive. Covid did absolutely nothing to change that calculus; the restrictions imposed on kids, however, r devastating, entirely useless, & entirely fixable.
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Dear NYTimes, I also studied 1 million kids (1.8m actually). They all live in Sweden & attended school in-person maskless through the height of 2020 spring pandemic. There were 0 Covid deaths among kids & teachers had lower risk than other professions.
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Notice that there is no data on effectiveness against hospitalization or death in Pfizer's age 5-11 trial results. It simply says the vaccine was "well-tolerated" by the kids
There is no point other than to assuage the irrational fears of adults in SF,NY,LA,DC,Chicago,Boston,etc
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In case not clear by now, COVID cases rise for ~45 days & then stop. On the way down, everyone credits their fav explanation: lockdowns, masks, school closures, vax, HCQ, ivermectin, herd immunity,etc
I dont profess to know what causes this but it certainly isn't "good behavior"
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“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it” - Upton Sinclair
Fauci 'not sure' why Texas doesn't have COVID uptick after nixing masks
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If COVID hit just 10yrs ago "lockdowns" wouldve never been entertained b/c elites couldn't Zoom at home & have DoorDash deliver kale to their Peloton while the poor lost their jobs & absorbed the viral burden. Tech didn't help us weather a crisis; tech perpetuated the real crisis
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Google just reported a QUARTERLY profit of $21.03 billion, ~3 times anything it reported prior to the lockdowns and mass hysteria.
Google is also the arbiter of truth when it comes to "The Science"
Are you surprised then The Science always seems to perpetuate the mass hysteria?
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Ironically, blaming the public for becoming infected with a virus that spreads because people need to breathe is the only thing at which "public health" succeeded.
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What is the best word to describe the people around the country and the world actively rooting for increased mortality in places like Florida & Texas—where the audacity of normal life continues—solely due to a desire to increase their already inflated sense of moral superiority?
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More grade school kids age 5-14 in the US sadly die in one week (of all causes) than have died of Covid during the ENTIRE pandemic.
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It sure seems to me that Anthony Fauci is in the unique position in the USA of bearing responsibility for both the virus itself created directly or indirectly by his research $$ and the disastrous lockdowns he championed in the wake of its escape that have destroyed our country.
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Based on observable data over the last 18 months, approximately 95% of people in charge of our COVID response are either (i) blatant liars or (ii) completely unqualified for their positions. There are no other explanations.
Regardless of which is true, they must be extirpated.
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I see below video is making the rounds. As embarrassing as it is for Gavin, if you really want to see what a vacuous insipid twat of an empty suit devoid of any substance who has virtue signaled his way to the top he is, this brief clip with
@adamcarolla
Every American should watch this video before
@GavinNewsom
runs for president.
#AmericanPsycho
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If Fauci wanted great trust in & uptake of vax, he shouldn’t have lied to the American public for the last 18 months about lab leak, gain of function, high cycle PCR tests, lockdowns, school closures, asymptomatic transm., mask efficacy, age-stratified risk, natural immunity, etc
Dr. Fauci says declining U.S. vaccination rate is “very, very frustrating situation”: “We have more vaccines in this country than we know what to do with - everybody & anybody can get vaccinated. And we have people throughout the world who would do anything to get vaccinated."
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The US & Sweden both report COVID seroprevalence by age. As of late May/early June both the US & Sweden reported 28% in the 0-17 age (0-19 for Sweden).
In the US, masks are forced on kids. In Sweden, they send you home for wearing one.
At least admit you're ignoring the truth.
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Masks inhibit kids’ learning & development while harming them emotionally & socially for no purpose other than to provide a false sense of security to vaccinated adults who have no idea they’re still at greater risk than their unvaccinated & uselessly masked kids.
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Wow. This survey encapsulates the pandemic.
Half the country--the one that watches CNN & reads NYTimes (its in article; read b/w the lines)--is uncomfortable reentering society even after vaccination.
The other half--without vaccination--never left.
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COVID, a respiratory disease estimated by CDC to have infected 40% of all kids, caused a 60% DECLINE in children's respiratory hospitalizations
NPIs, on the other hand, caused a 30% INCREASE in the proportion of mental health visits for kids
I'm just not sure what's left to say
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CDC Today: we've determined our collective response to COVID was a non-evidence-based misguided hysterical overreaction laden with action bias resulting in > harm than good
CDC Tomorrow: after consulting w/NYTimes &Twitter we’re no longer 100% certain of yesterday’s announcement
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I honestly can't believe we ever put masks on children. Let alone that they will be the last ones wearing them.
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Our regulators are halting an intervention (J&J) that actually saves lives b/c of 6 adverse events out of 7 million
Meanwhile another intervention (unprecedented lockdowns) have killed hundreds of thousands, arguably not saved any life, and continue unquestioned
Because caution
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As lockdowns were implemented I felt they were a horrible idea due to collateral damage, but I naively expected them to at least be modestly effective. That they were not admittedly surprised me. It also converts them from bad policy to complete abomination. Now 50 studies below:
This will be my first and possibly last tweet (thread) as I am mostly here to learn. It is prompted by a recent study questioning lockdown efficacy that is getting a lot of attention. It appears people believe it to be the first of its kind, but I have been collecting similar
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This poll confirms my suspicion that lockdowns are only supported by white liberal assholes. The problem is such demographic is largely in control of COVID policy.
57% of voters believe that lockdowns did more harm than good. The only category <50% (at 37%) is white Dems.
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3. 18 years ago, during SARS 1, Australia fined people up to $110k for suggesting that masks work
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If masks were effective, given what we know about child Covid, I would thoughtfully and politely choose that my kids not wear them anyway in favor of a more socially and emotionally rich life.
That they are instead both entirely useless and mandated is downright enraging.
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People who contract omicron are protected from risk of serious disease because omicron is not a serious disease.
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I'm back from vacation and the CDC clown show has me fired up. Time for a rant. You know the drill ... a collection of standalone charts, thoughts, analogies, quotes, etc.
1/22
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The CDC estimates that in the US—where we've had disastrous lockdowns, school closures, & forced masking—42% of kids had COVID (through March).
In Sweden—where none of that garbage occurred—just 28% of kids have COVID antibodies (through early June).
You have been played.
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3.
“government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality”
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I am sensing some real backlash today to the CDC’s flip flopping, bait-&-switching, & outright lying.
As many of you know, I love history and psychology, both of which may provide some insight as to what is happening.
1/6
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8. The moralizing of infection needs to stop. What is next? Do we contact trace any elderly person that gets infected with a cold from their grandchild that turns into pneumonia, and then charge the child with a crime? We have truly lost our minds. This is a mass hysteria.
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How long before the CDC cites the Bangladesh study showing that cloth masks do nothing and surgical masks MAY have a benefit only for >50 yr olds .... as a reason to mandate cloth masks on children?
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Does anyone have that citation handy where it says authoritarian socialism is an effective response to a respiratory virus?
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I am mostly a low-volume tweeter, but some days you just feel like burning it down. Today is one of those days.
Mute me or pull up a chair.
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Why were lockdowns never advised pre-COVID?
Compare age 15-64 mortality Sweden vs US
Sweden: below avg death throughout 2020 except tiny Spring blip
US: significant excess mortality starts March. Shape is relatively flat--implying constant (lockdown) vs seasonal (covid) origin
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“China can pump propaganda into the American media while restricting American media’s access to the Chinese media landscape”
A non-military attack could “cause the enemy nation to fall into social panic, street riots, and a political crisis”
3/17
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Ladies & gentlemen behold the null hypothesis: ~zero correlation between government response stringency (lockdown) and COVID mortality. The virus spreads until it doesn't. The burden is on the lockdowners to prove otherwise and they have failed.
1/2
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For whatever reason, people really love to analogize Covid restrictions to prohibitions against drunk driving.
Let me ask: does anyone tell you that you cannot drive a car because you may be drunk but not know it?
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Whatever ridiculous 6-pronged bullshit Biden trots out today, it will have an equal chance of altering the course of earth's magnetic field as it does the course of COVID in the US.
Get a vax if you want, leave my kids alone, & let all move on w life however they're comfortable.
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4. "To forget one's purpose is the commonest form of stupidity."
~Friedrich Nietzsche
Pretty much sums up lockdowns/NPIs. Purpose was to "slow the spread" so hospitals weren't overwhelmed. Now, 500 days later, we're masking 3year olds in order to prevent asymptomatic PCR +s
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This short 1948 essay excerpt from C.S. Lewis is pretty incredible. I encourage you to read it and substitute "Covid" for "atomic"/"bomb" (and the like) each place it appears.
Thread below too for those whose eyes are as bad as mine:
1/8
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This survey/study shows 35% of small businesses are unlikely to make it through summer. This on top of the ~39% already closed.
Reminder, "the pandemic" did not do this. None of this was "necessary" nor did it make any difference.
Hold them accountable.
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1 yr ago today, Dr. Ioannidis wrote the below. I read it that day, agreed with nearly every word, and still do. Worth revisiting in full, but I’ve captured a few key quotes below along with my own commentary
My favorite, which sums up the last yr:
1/8
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5. 300,000 more people died at home last year than in a normal year. 273,000 of them were not from COVID. Lockdowns kill.
@EWoodhouse7
@snorman1776
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“If one party is at war w another, & the other party does not realize it is at war, the party who knows it is at war almost always has the advantage & usually wins”(Tzu)
"social spaces such as the military, politics, economics, culture, & the psyche are also battlefields”
6/17
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Imagine being so stupid you still think this is driven by human behavior / interventions / mandates
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“Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated.”
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Things “we” weren’t allowed to discuss but turns out Fauci was discussing early ‘20
- lab leak
- focused protection (GBD)
- asymptomatic spread
- PCR
- masks ineffective
- aerosolized transm.
- virus already “past point of no return”
- seasonality
- risk contextualization
2/7
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7. Nancy Pelosi is 81 years old and therefore, assuming she is vaccinated, at 96 times the risk from COVID as my unvaccinated kids. I am glad she is following the science and not wearing a mask. But please, don't make my kids either.
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7.
“Given that the evidence reveals that the Corona disease declines even without a complete lockdown, it is recommendable to reverse the current policy and remove
the lockdown”
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In urban areas, parents seem to have decided they are willing to force endless testing, masks, and restrictions upon their kids in exchange for pretending it is too dangerous to resume getting dressed and commuting to the office.
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Many comments on my thread earlier this week re China/lockdowns. Think about what's happened over the last 18 mo's & tell me if it sounds more like a repressive communist regime or a Western liberal democracy. None of this was remotely fathomable until China showed us the way
1/9
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Look at US Covid hospitalizations vs initial unemployment claims (w prior recessions)
Hospitalizations are sadly higher now than April 2020 & yet initial claims are down 94% from April 2020
"The virus" did not shut down the economy. Idiotic, ineffective, disastrous policies did
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“Official data from Germany’s RKI agency suggest strongly that the spread of the coronavirus in Germany receded autonomously, before any interventions become effective”
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“stay at home orders, closure of all non-essential businesses and requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public was not associated with any independent additional impact”
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Why the sudden shift in mask guidance that surely marks the beginning of the end of COVID mania? It certainly isn't b/c the science changed. Its because society is completely broken and the status quo is unsustainable.
1. People are voting with their feet for freedom:
1/10
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I read the book cover to cover and I thought you might be interested in some quotes/passages I highlighted, which I encourage you to read w current events in mind.
“the media has become an immediate and integral part of warfare”
2/17
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Sorry masking kids is an objectively losing position
1st consider the following:
-mask mandates haven’t accomplished anything anywhere
-all adults who want vax have had it
-Covid is much less threat to kids than flu
-Unvaccinated kid’s risk is less than vax’d 30yr old
1/4
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NY Times Dec 2020: “It's Time to Scare People About Covid”
NY Times April 2021: “Irrational Covid Fears - Why do so many vaccinated people remain fearful?"
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9. The four largest health insurers had record profits last year because no one received medical care. That's ... not a good thing.
- Centene: gross profits up 72% in 2020
- Humana: up 41%
- Anthem: up 22%
- United Health: up 16%
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5.
“the decline in infections in England...began before full lockdown…[S]uch a scenario would be consistent with...Sweden, which began its decline in fatal infections shortly after the UK, but did so on the basis of measures well short of full lockdown”
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This CDC publication is unbelievable:
1) Look at their own table: 45% of all adolescent "COVID" admissions were for something else, with the highest being psychiatric
2) Look where they stopped the study period
The CDC should be designated a domestic terrorist organization
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As predicted, nothing in Biden's plan will accomplish anything other than to further & dangerously divide the nation
Interestingly, some data from the UK came out today that refutes everything in his plan (other than increasing treatments which is of course good)
Let's look...
Whatever ridiculous 6-pronged bullshit Biden trots out today, it will have an equal chance of altering the course of earth's magnetic field as it does the course of COVID in the US.
Get a vax if you want, leave my kids alone, & let all move on w life however they're comfortable.
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I fear this deeply entwined w/ “cancel culture.” Its absurd that I must be anonymous to dare suggest that uniform lockdowns of an entire healthy population including school closures might be unwise when the CDC itself acknowledges that 85 year-olds have 8,700x risk of kids
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“the UK lockdown was both superfluous (it did not prevent an otherwise explosive behavior of the spread of the coronavirus) and ineffective (it did not slow down the death growth rate visibly).”
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A thousand books can (and will) be written on the harms of lockdowns. This thread will instead focus on its epic exacerbation of the divide between rich & poor. Last week I let 30 studies do the talking; this time I will let 23 pictures tell the story.
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2. Delta didn't cause vax to "fail." If there's a failure, it was the vax having been marketed as a tool for eradication, which is entirely unrealistic. That didn't happen so now they blame you.
Politicians/bureaucrats aren't interested in solving your problems; only their own.
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2. Masks dont work & prob make it worse: "rates of all infection[s] were highest in the cloth mask arm, w the rate of ILI statistically significantly higher in the cloth mask arm"
"Penetration of cloth masks by particles was almost 97%"
"may result in increased risk of infection"
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@davidzweig
@NYMag
Imagine having to remain anonymous for saying, as a pediatrician, “Reading faces is critical for social emotional learning. And all children are actively learning language the first five years of life, for which seeing faces is foundational,”
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Curious about how uneven the economic recovery is? Compare OpenTable bookings across major US cities
SF & LA down 60% & ~40% (vs 2019) respectively while Miami & Ft Lauderdale up 40-50%
Florida ranks 40th in age adj death (50 being best)& California 23rd
It was all for nothing
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