Dylan White
@The__Arrival
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Lead Fantasy Analyst at | 2023 NFBC Main Event Overall (co-)Champion | Developer of RoboScout | He/him
Toronto, Ontario
Joined June 2011
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Vlad Guerrero, Jr. (first 1319 PA's):
63 HR's, 133 wRC+, .365 OBP
Vlad Guerrero, Sr. (first 1319 PA's):
64 HR's, 131 wRC+, .362 OBP
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So excited to be joining this team!
We are excited to welcome Dylan White (
@The__Arrival
) to the team at Baseball America to help lead our fantasy coverage!
Dylan’s cutting edge, data-driven work is some of the best in the public space. Be on the lookout for more fantasy content and tools than ever before.
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Santa Claus is NOT in Toronto.
Santa is NOT in a sleigh to Toronto.
Santa is at home in the North Pole.
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In his 18th MLB PA, Zach Neto hit a double at 109.9 mph off the bat (harder than Dansby Swanson's max EV of 109.6 mph over 3,456 MLB PAs.)
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After just over a year with the incredible team at Prospects Live, it’s with bittersweet excitement that I announce I’m joining Baseball America to help lead their fantasy coverage!
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Recent name popping up on RoboScout with an 82 at AAA: 24 year old in AAA with only an .071 ISO but .989 OPS and other good tools.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
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Steamer (update):
Cody Bellinger .240/.347/.462 (112 wRC+)
23 HR / 12 SB
Christian Yelich .246/.362/.436 (114 wRC+)
23 HR / 10 SB
Jeremy Pena .254/.319/.450 (111 wRC+)
22 HR / 11 SB
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Dipped my toe into high stakes fantasy baseball this year…co-managing an NFBC Main Event team with Brian Slack
@that_glg20
.
Man, what a journey!
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If this year has taught Blue Jay fans anything, it's what a bullpen day is and when they happen.
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How good has Ezequiel Tovar been this year?
Well, here is a comparison of him (as a 20 year old in AA) with other similarly aged players who at the same level.
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We know that Buxton has once again caught fire, but have y'all seen MJ Melendez recently?
Last 30 days:
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Just launched a prospect “comp” tool for the wonderful
@ProspectsLive
patrons (with
@smada_bb
) and, let’s turn it on…k, let’s check out…hmm lemmethink, um…maybe Evan Carter…ok, let’s see who had similar seasons…
🚨 👀🔥
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For those wondering, the eventual
@nfbc
Main Event Overall winning team was in 480th place on May 21st.
It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
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Steamer already has Nolan Schanuel as a .260/.333/.434 (110 wRC+) bat with 21 HR.
He was drafted last month
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Thread on advanced stats prep for 2022.
Within year, wRC+ correlates to BB/K and Slug.
Slug correlates to Contact% and Barrel%.
So you can derive an "xwRC+" from BB/K, Contact%, and Barrel%.
2020 xwRC+ is more predictive of 2021 wRC+, OPS, wOBA than any other 2020 metric.
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High-A Hitters (final) per The Formula:
1 Anthony Volpe
#SquadUp
2 Francisco Alvarez
#LGM
3 George Valera
#OurCLE
4 Andy Pages
#Dodgers
5 Jordan Walker
#STLFLY
6 Everson Pereira
#SquadUp
7 Nick Yorke
#DirtyWater
8 Dustin Harris
#StraightUpTX
9 Jhonkensy Noel
#OurCLE
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ZiPS 2024 projections:
Bryce Harper .268 BA (.924 OPS) 29 HR / 11 SB
Riley Greene .280 BA (.874 OPS) 29 HR / 11 SB
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Per my in-season pitching metric, the following SPs had a Sept that were in the top 20.
So, I guess it’s a super early 2022 SLEEPER list 🤷♂️:
-Edward Cabrera
-Nestor Cortes
-Nick Pivetta
-Luis Gil
-Eric Lauer
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In Part 2 of my “Examining minor league Pitch Arsenals” from a statcast point of view (coming out in the next few days on Prospects Live), I will assess (among others):
-Taj Bradley
-Peyton Battenfield
-Max Meyer
-Graham Ashcraft
-Freddie Tarnok
-Blake Walston
-Joey Estes
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A little over a year ago, I joined the
@ProspectsLive
dynasty team and - just in 2022 - our patrons gained access to an incredible suite of tools: RoboScout, data driven ranks (from statcast), a “comp” tool and, now, a dynasty top 1000.
Proud to be part of this stellar team!
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Steamer 600 projections:
Lars Nootbaar:
.257 BA, 21 HR / 9 SB
Jordan Walker:
.266 BA, 21 HR / 10 SB
Jorge Polanco:
.250 BA, 21 HR / 6 SB
Luis Rengifo:
.260 BA, 21 HR / 10 SB
Jordan Beck (COL prospect):
.254 BA, 22 HR / 10 SB
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Top minor leaguer HITTERS YTD (per my "formula"TM, age-adjusted, PA-weighted, proximity-adjusted):
1 Trevor Hauver
2 Vidal Brujan
3 Francisco Alvarez
4 Heliot Ramos
5 Robert Hassell III
6 CJ Abrams
7 Liover Peguero
8 Corbin Carroll
9 Wander Franco
10 Evan Carter
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Steamer600 update projections:
Cody Bellinger
.230/.313/.433 (107 wRC+)
25 HR / 13 SB
Christopher Morel
.236/.301/.424 (103 wRC+)
22 HR / 14 SB
Why draft Bellinger when you could have just taken Morel ♾ rounds later?
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Top YTD milb PITCHERS per The Formula (5/23):
1 Roansy C
2 A Manoah
3 H Greene
4 Grayson R
5 SWR
6 J Kowar
7 S Baz
8 A Zerpa
9 Bailey Falter(?)
10 Eury Perez
11 Cole Henry
12 DL Hal
13 L Medina
14 Ryan Murphy(?)
15 Alec Marsh
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Peak MLB wRC+ (from 2021 High A) per The Formula:
1 George Valera
#OurCLE
2 Julio Rodriguez
#SeaUsRise
3 Spencer Torkelson
#DetroitRoots
4 Andy Pages
#Dodgers
5 Vinnie Pasquantino
#TogetherRoyal
6 Justin Foscue
#StraightUpTX
7 Miguel Vargas
#Dodgers
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Last 365 days...
Wander Franco (491 PAs)
.280/.326/.438 (117 wRC+)
10 HR / 4 SB
Willy Adames (504 PAs)
.244/.321/.483 (117 wRC+)
28 HR / 4 SB
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Last 365 days:
Vlad Guerrero Jr (691 PAs)
.277/.357/.515 (138 wRC+)
40-102-95-2 (HR-R-RBI-SB)
3.8 fWAR
CJ Cron (640 PAs)
.301/.368/.569 (138 wRC+)
37-87-125-1
3.8 fWAR
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Super sleeper in deep dynasty leagues: Pitt OF Esmerlyn Valdez. Massive power.
(Hereby planting a flag.)
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Steamer 600 projections:
Gunnar Henderson:
.260 BA, 25 HR / 11 SB
Wyatt Langford (TEX prospect):
.262 BA, 23 HR / 14 SB
Christian Yelich:
.261 BA, 18 HR / 20 SB
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AA Hitters (final) per The Formula:
1 Julio Rodriguez
#SeaUsRise
2 Riley Greene
#DetroitRoots
3 Miguel Vargas
#Dodgers
4 Spencer Torkelson
#DetroitRoots
5 Buddy Kennedy 🤔
#RattleOn
6 MJ Melendez
#TogetherRoyal
7 Bobby Witt Jr.
#TogetherRoyal
8 Triston Casas
#DirtyWater
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Top FCL Hitters (final) per The Formula:
1 Jordan Viars (FYPD🚨)
#RingTheBell
2 Alexeis Azuaje 🎯
#RingTheBell
3 Mishael Deson
#Birdland
4 Blaze Jordan
#DirtyWater
5 Eddinson Paulino
#DirtyWater
6 T.J. White (FYPD)
#NATITUDE
7 Emmanuel Rodriguez
#MNTwins
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Top A+ Pitchers YTD (9/16) per The Formula:
1 Daniel Espino
#OurCLE
2 Eury Perez
#JuntosMiami
3 DJ Herz
#CubTogether
4 Spencer Strider
#ForTheA
5 Matt Canterino
#MNTwins
6 Gavin Stone
#Dodgers
🧐📈
7 Ian Seymour
#RaysUp
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Low-A Pitchers (final) per The Formula:
1 Eury Perez
#JuntosMiami
2 Kyle Harrison
#ResilientSF
3 Jaime Melendez
#ForTheH
4 Joey Estes
#ForTheA
5 Spencer Strider
#ForTheA
6 DJ Herz
#CubTogether
7 Marc Church
#StraightUpTX
8 Jared Jones
#LetsGoBucs
9 Colby White
#RaysUp
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I imagine “Bailey Ober” is how La Russa answered what his BAC was
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Who me? Just a half JAPANESE baseball fan wanting to SHO everyone that TORONTO is a great city to walk your DOG (for no particular reason).
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Taking a cue from
@RealJRAnderson
's RW article (subscription req'd but WORTH IT) on milb hitter Hard Hit%, I graphed BB% vs HH% (for 19-21 year olds, min 100 PA)
BB% = selectivity. HH% = crushing it
Top right quadrant is where you want to be.
Volpe! Tork! Everson Pereira!
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Irresponsible to talk about some ACL, FCL and DSL targets after just 4 days? Yes.
Ah, nonetheless…
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Peak MLB wRC+ (from 2021 Low A) per The Formula:
1 Francisco Alvarez
#LGM
2 Anthony Volpe
#SquadUp
3 Jhonkensy Noel
#OurCLE
4 Jordan Walker
#STLFLY
5 Nick Yorke
#DirtyWater
6 Jairo Pomares
#ResilientSF
7 Anthony Garcia
#SquadUp
8 Everson Pereira
#SquadUp
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Last 30 days:
Jose Ramirez .280/.374/.710 (1.7 fWAR)
9 HR / 6 SB (107 PAs)
89.5 mph EV (110.1 mph Max EV )
8.0% Barrel%
Bobby Witt Jr. .282/.345.602 (1.6 fWAR)
7 HR / 5 SB (over 116 PAs)
95 mph EV (112.9 mph Max EV)
13.9% Barrel%
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If you're wondering how you can valuate prospects, here's the BA Top 100 from 2014 with each player's accumulated 5 year points (using the PL BestBall scoring system) - hitters in orange, pitchers in blue.
PS RIP Oscar Taveras and Yordano Ventura...
The boys are back!
@EddyAlmaguer
,
@ProspectJesus
and
@mdthompFWFB
bring the Prospects Live Dynasty pod out of hibernation to talk all about their strategies surrounding the new Dynasty Bestball leagues. A must listen if competing in them!
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The BatX wRC+ for some rookies:
T Freeman 107
Tork 100
Casas, Alek T 97
Jung, Yepez, Kwan, J Miranda 96
R Palacios 95
B Witt, Brennen D, C Hummel 93
O Cruz, Vientos 91
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Look, if my parents want me to chat more often, then they should simply become a co-manager of one of my FAB leagues…
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Congrats to
@MPRichards1981
for taking down
@TGFBI
(pretty much since June). Enjoy the victory lap and the podcast adulation junket.
You deserve it!
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Mike Trout, heading into age 31 season...
2015: .299 BA (.291 xBA)
2016: .315 BA (.294 xBA)
2017: .306 BA (.286 xBA)
2018: .312 BA (.289 xBA)
2019: .291 BA (.302 xBA)
2020: .281 BA (.287 xBA)
2021: .333 BA (.297 xBA)
Steamer600 (update) projection: .261 BA 🤔
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More fun with
@DolphHauldhagen
's Similarity board...this time with my sleeper catcher, Luis Torrens.
Here are his 2020 hitting metrics (EV, LA, K%, BB%) best comps:
👀🔥🚨
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Steamer600 update, as of today:
CJ Cron .263/.338/.493 (118 wRC+)
30 HR
Elehuris Montero .267/.333/.480 (115 wRC+)
28 HRs
Underrated (both in dynasty and probably 2022 redraft)
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Last 365 days...
Carlos Correa (552 PAs)
.273/.344/.447 (123 wRC+)
19 HR / 0 SB
Gleyber Torres (484 PAs)
.268/.320/.460 (117 wRC+)
19 HR / 13 SB
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Identified a few hitters in the lower levels who RoboScout liked who might be underrated...
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Josue de Paula (LAD), how do you say, catches my eye...
When you ring our doorbell, we have full size candy bars 🎃
We're so pumped to introduce our newest tool developed by
@The__Arrival
exclusively for our Tier 60+ Patrons:
⚾ The Prospect Hitter Comp Tool ⚾
Free preview below 👇
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Top A+ Hitters YTD (9/16) per The Formula:
1 Anthony Volpe
#SquadUp
2 Francisco Alvarez
#LGM
3 George Valera
#OurCle
4 Jordan Walker
#STLFLY
5 Andy Pages
#Dodgers
6 Jhonkensy Noel
#OurCle
7 Everson Pereira
#SquadUp
8 Nick Yorke
#DirtyWater
9 Dustin Harris
#StraightUpTX
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This is what I wrote in last week’s
@ProspectsLive
RoboScout article (for the 60 tier Patreon subs).
Sure, the syntax is awkward and maybe the comps are stretches - but the message is strong: PICK UP CHASE SILSETH
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Top A Hitters YTD (8/17) per The Formula (gaps denote rel value):
1 Anthony Volpe
2 Jhonkensy Noel
3 Robert Hassell
4 Orelvis Martinez
5 Marco Luciano
6 Jordan Walker
7 Zac Veen
8 Luis Matos
9 Ezequiel Tovar
10 Noelvi Marte
11 Felix Valerio
12 Euribiel Angeles
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Been incorporating
@RosenJordanBlum
's age translations and projections to create the
@ProspectsLive
(soon-to-be-unveiled) Dynasty Top 1000 for our patrons.
The ever-present struggle is how to assess the better "asset" when you see something like this:
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Texas (19 yr old) SS Thomas Saggese pops up via The Formula with 139 wRC+, 9 HR, 9 (Net)SB in 220 PAs.
Scouting reports say he is hit tool and defense but needs to grow power.
His ISO is >= other A-ball 19 yr olds: Veen, Hassell, Noelvi.
Aug slash: .389/.468/.667.
Intrigued.
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Seems appropriate to post this tonight…from Sunday’s article.
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Notable ATC wOBA's for 'rookies':
Tork .349
MJ Melendez .346
Casas .344
C Hummel .343
E Montero .342
Jung .341
O Cruz, JuRod, Miranda, Pratto .340
Kwan, Witt Jr .339
Beer, Yepez .334
Brennen D .328
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Top AA Hitters YTD (9/16) per The Formula:
1 JuRod
#SeaUsRise
2 Riley Greene
#DetroitRoots
3 Miguel Vargas
#Dodgers
4 Tork
#DetroitRoots
5 MJ Melendez
#TogetherRoyal
6 Bobby Witt Jr.
#TogetherRoyal
7 Samad Taylor
#WeAreBlueJays
8 Buddy Kennedy
#RattleOn
(can't keep ignoring)
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After applying park factors, the top AAA hitters per The Formula:
1 Oneil Cruz
#LetsGoBucs
(despite only 29 PAs)
2 Keibert Ruiz
#natitude
3 Jarred Kelenic
#SeaUsRise
4 MJ Melendez
#TogetherRoyal
5 Oswaldo Cabrera
#SquadUp
6 Luis Garcia
#natitude
7 Nick Pratto
#TogetherRoyal
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Commissioners, precedent has been set: fantasy-related slaps are 3 game suspensions.
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Working on my PRELIMINARY 2022 SP ranks...here are where some notable young SPs project for 15 team:
SP2: Trevor Rogers, Alek Manoah
SP3: Shane Baz, Shane McClanahan, Luis Garcia, Joe Ryan
SP4: Logan Gilbert, Tanner Houck, Huascar Ynoa, Ranger Suarez, Triston McKenzie
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2022 SPs (alphabetical) with 4 pitches (min 50 thrown) with my “Stuff+” ratings over 100:
Sandy Alcantara: CH (135), FF (111), SL (108), SI (111)
Aaron Ashby: SI (112), SL (127), CH (110), CU (143)
Walker Buehler: FC (106), CU (108), SL (112), CH (121)
...
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Last 30 days, Esteury Ruiz rank amongst hitters with min 10 PAs (n=448 hitters):
Avg EV: 67.6 mph = worst (out of 448)
SwStrk%: 23.1% = 8th worst
Contact%: 59.1% = 11th worst
GB%: 55.6% = 57th highest
BABIP: .444 = 18th highest
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Had a blast working on this: a data driven approach converging with “traditional” scouting, viewed through a fantasy lens, informed by dynasty league experience.
Our first Dynasty specific Top 100 prospects list. I had a blast working on this with
@The__Arrival
. His peak projection work is a new wrinkle for us and I’m excited to introduce.
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2021 MLB SPs who threw 4+ pitches > 5%.
Per pitch, convert WHIFF% to 20-80 grade.
SPs with 4+ pitches that are 55+:
C Burnes: 70, 70, 70, 60, 55
D Cease: 70, 60, 60, 55
M Scherzer: 70, 60, 55, 55 (and 50)
Luis Garcia: 70, 60, 55, 55 (and 45)
Jose Quintana: 60, 60, 55, 55🤔🧐
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Come listen to my Canadian accent ("trust the prah-cess") through the mic I bought just for this podcast.
🇨🇦🤖⚾️
Have you heard of the new Prospects Live RoboScout tool we launched yesterday?
Still unsure about it? Today we're making our dynasty show free for all where
@The__Arrival
joins
@EddyAlmaguer
to talk all about the tool and how it's a huge leg up.
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Humanity...just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.
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Redraft:
🥇 TGFBI (5th overall, 3rd in side pot).
Dynasty/Keeper:
🥇 RFD (20tm, 2nd last year)
🥇*RM3 (20tm, 2nd last year)
🥇 NABL (12tm, 3-peat!)
5th *RM1 (15tm, 11th last year)
*co-manage
But most satisfyingly, wrote weekly article for the Prospects Live patreon.
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After applying the final Park Factors (courtesy
@BaseballAmerica
), the updated Low-A Hitter List per The Formula:
1 Anthony Volpe (implied peak MLB wRC+: 113)
2 Jordan Walker (123)
3 Marco Luciano (91)
4 Nick Yorke (94)
5 Jhonkensy Noel (109)
6 Francisco Alvarez (102)
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As of May 16, Top milb HITTERS YTD per "The Formula":
1 JuRod
2 CJ Abrams
3 Patrick Dorrian(?)
4 Oswald Peraza
5 R Hassell III
6 Brujan
7 K Paris
8 Yonny Hernandez
9 Canaan Smith-N
10 Wander F
11 R Mauricio
12 Alek Thomas
13 Heliot R
14 Co Carroll 😕
15 Riley Greene
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In case you missed this yesterday, we did a thing…
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Steamer600 SS projections (R/HR/RBI/SB)
Lindor .249 75/22/75/13
Adames .243 78/26/74/8
Gleyber .259 73/23/79/13
Oneil C .239 73/26/75/18
Gunnar .250 71/19/72/10
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Steamer 600 projections:
Paul Goldschmidt:
.268 BA, 24 HR / 7 SB
Nolan Arenado:
.263 BA, 26 HR / 4 SB
Junior Caminero:
.265 BA, 24 HR / 5 SB
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What's the German word for not following your own "analysis"?
Have zero Cortes, E Cab, Lauer (or even Pivetta). Sigh.
Per my in-season pitching metric, the following SPs had a Sept that were in the top 20.
So, I guess it’s a super early 2022 SLEEPER list 🤷♂️:
-Edward Cabrera
-Nestor Cortes
-Nick Pivetta
-Luis Gil
-Eric Lauer
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Some fun Steamer600 projections:
Tyler O'Neill:
106 wRC+
.242 BA
25 HR / 14 SB
Daulton Varsho:
105 wRC+
.238 BA
26 HR / 17 SB
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Mentioned this on the
@ProspectsLive
Top 500 pod yesterday and I'm still surprised by it. Steamer600 projections for some Dodgers SPs (as of today):
Tony Gonsolin 1.32 WHIP / 4.31 ERA / 8.73 K9
Bobby Miller 1.35 WHIP / 4.34 ERA / 7.45 K9
Gavin Stone 1.30 WHIP / 3.93 ERA / 8.15 K9
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It's August 21 and I find myself 1st overall in
@TGFBI
and I've been asked what the 'secret' to my success is (thus far).
Well, grinding it out every week seems necessary...but is not sufficient.
So, doing a way-too-early post-mortem, this is what got me "here":
[cont'd]
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AA (corner)OF Jack Suwinski (now a Pirate) seems criminally underrated to me.
Patience and power (despite playing most of AA for SD whose park is one of the most HR-suppressing).
Similar output to other AA batters of varying repute: Burdick, Pratto, Brennen D (see table)
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Steamer 600:
Randy Arozarena:
.258 BA, 21 HR / 22 SB
Jackson Chourio:
.253 BA, 20 HR / 19 SB
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Sure, on one hand we have raging wildfires; a relentless global pandemic; disinformation and intolerance tearing society apart; people in power seemingly with no regard for accountability.
On the other hand, in
#TGFBI
...
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I am currently picking from the 10th slot in the 20 team OBP
#RotoWireDynastyMock
.
1.10 Shohei Ohtani
I love the flex of being able to slot Ohtani as an SP if needed and having the 'extra' bench player. He's even better in OBP. Steamer says 40 HR / 25 SB...from a pitcher??
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Ethan Small so far with 4 no hit innings (6 Ks) against a Durham Bulls with Brujan, Aranda, Proctor
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Starting the process of a top 500 prospects list. Shout out to everybody who does them…they are hard.
That being said, using the tools available here at Prospects Live and peeking under the publicly available hood…all I gotta say is wow, ______ is amazing and being slept on!😉
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With Rule 5 draft coming up, checked out similar minor league hitters at that age and level to Malcom Nunez (via the
@prospectslive
Hitter Comp Tool as part of their Patreon).
Some pretty interesting names:
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Steamer 600 projections:
Jeremy Pena:
.263 BA, 18 HR / 13 SB
Matt Shaw (CHC prospect):
.263 BA, 14 HR / 16 SB
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As of May 16, top milb PITCHERS YTD per "The Formula":
1 H Greene
2 R Contreras
3 A Manoah
4 SWR
5 G'son Rodriguez
6 Ethan Elliott
7 Jaime Melendez(?)
8 J Kowar
9 S BAz
10 Cole Henry
11 Michael Burrows(?)
12 A Marsh
13 DL Hall
14 J Eder
15 Angel Zerpa
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As leaders,
@Smada_PLive
,
@EddyAlmaguer
, and
@mdthompFWFB
gave me the autonomy and support to execute whatever I felt would bring the most value to subscribers. I hope I did that.
I’m proud of what we accomplished together – and looking forward to what’s next.
4/4
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Top AAA Pitchers YTD (8/31) per The Formula:
1 Joe Ryan
#MNTwins
2 Aaron Ashby
#ThisIsMyCrew
3 Shane Baz
#RaysUp
4 Jackson Kowar
#TogetherRoyal
5 Luis Patino
#RaysUp
6 Edward Cabrera
#JuntosMiami
7 Bailey Falter
#RingTheBell
8 Dom Acevedo
#RiseAndGrind
9 H Greene
#ATOBTTR
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Before the trade, depth charts had Tyrone Taylor for 186 PAs rest of season.
If Esteury Ruiz gets all of those PAs (not likely) - and assuming going from SD to MIL is park neutral - under the
#TGFBI
league settings, Ruiz becomes (per my calcs) a $14 player (20th OF) ROS.🤞
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0
13
I guess I better plant my flag now on Anthony Garcia, NYY before the buzz kicks in.
Massive power.
Destroyed the FCL and is now mashing in Low A with 5 HR in 33 AB(!)s.
4
1
14
Top AAA Hitters YTD (8/27) per The Formula:
1 Keibert Ruiz (new
#1
)
2 Josh VanMeter
3 Josh Lowe
4 Jarred Kelenic
5 Vidal Brujan
6 Bobby Witt Jr.
7 Nick Pratto
8 Ryan O'Hearn
9 Ryan McKenna
10 Kevin Smith
0
2
12