Tanay Jaipuria
@tanayj
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partner @wing_vc . opinions, analysis, and banter on technology and business
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Joined October 2008
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Pinned Tweet
Twitter: Where brands pretend to be people
Instagram: Where people pretend to be brands
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Duolingo making a dating show was not on my 2023 bingo card
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How Tesla caught the employee who was leaking confidential information to the press in 2008.
Really clever
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Just realized that a $1b breakup fee from Musk (were Twitter to get it) would represent more in net income for Twitter than it has made in aggregate in its lifetime as a company
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Top Twitter Shareholders:
1. Elon Musk: 9.2%
2. Vanguard: 8.8%
3. Morgan Stanley: 8.4%
4. Blackrock: 6.5%
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People are making $70-80K per year selling restaurant reservations in NYC on the secondary market 😯
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The redditor who started the $GME saga DeepFuckingValue has turned his $50K position into >$22M
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Google lost $100B of market cap today as its Chatbot Bard made a factual error during its first-ever demo and its AI event fell flat.
Must be the most costly live demo fail of all time
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The US might have been a leader in 5G had it been easier for one immigrant to stay in the country
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Streaming subscribers in India:
• Disney+ Hotstar: ~46M
• Amazon Prime Video: ~19M
• Netflix: ~5.5M
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Among us has 500M monthly active users and only 4 employees!
125M users per person working on the game 🤯
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To clarify, this is an April Fools' joke, but maybe they'll reconsider and actually make this show. I know I would watch it 😂
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The Airbnb IPO listing range is $56 to $60 per share.
So once you account for service fees, cleaning fees and accommodation taxes it'll come out to $90 to $100 per share.
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Tim Cook thinking about contract renewal negotiations on the $15B a year Google pays Apple to be the default search engine on iOS
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Starbucks has $1.2B in total unredeemed value on Starbucks cards which is like a 0% loan from customers
It also recognized ~145M (12%) as card breakages, i.e. the value customers aren't expected to redeem
So essentially Starbucks is borrowing money from customers at -12%/yr 🤯
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The Netflix 'Skip Intro' button is pressed ~136 million times a day, saving people 195 years in cumulative time everyday
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Damn, Onlyfans is doing $300M of EBITDA on $400M of Revenue.
Finally a tech startup doing real software margins 👀
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Microsoft Teams has more than 280M monthly active users now.
Slack has ~40-50M.
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Incredible scenes of Saudi fans celebrating their team’s goal vs Argentina.
One of them took the door off 🤣
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the distribution of marathon finishing times is fascinating
(via )
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Sequoia put in $100M into Zoom in Jan 2017 at $1B valuation.
It's currently trading at a ~$45B market cap, meaning their stake is worth ~$4.3B
That's a 40X in 3 years (>325% IRR). Wild.
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Eric Schmidt when asked in an internal townhall at Google in 2006 whether $1.5B was the right amount to pay for Youtube:
"It absolutely wasn't the right amount. It was either way too high or way too low and I'll tell you in 10 years."
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Calendly got to $70M in ARR on just a $550K seed round. Super impressive!
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Instagram revenue was just disclosed for the first time in court filings.
2018: $11.3B
2019: $17.9B
2020: $22.0B
2021: $32.4B
It makes more in ad revenue than YouTube (and likely at much higher gross margins!)
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Ryan Cohen sold Chewy in 2017 for $3.3B and put all his proceeds into two stocks: Wells Fargo and Apple.
His Apple stake is up 275% (worth $886M) making him the largest individual shareholder.
Late last year he added a $76M stake in Gamestop which is now worth ~$692M (up >800%)
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Crazy that Robinhood is monetizing Reddit better than Reddit
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Still one of the best openings to a CEO departure memo (from 2013)
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Wow Klarna's AI customer support agent is able to handle 2/3rd of the requests by itself in its first month and is doing the job of an equivalent of 700 agents.
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I'm certain that Airbnb has run A/B tests in which they show users the final prices (including all fees) in search results.
It likely reduced conversions so the growth team had its way and users are left with the misleading prices.
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3 months ago, Zendesk rejected a ~$17B private equity buyout offer because they felt it undervalued the company
Today, it accepted a $10.2B buyout offer by a PE investor group.
Sign of the times
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Cool photo from Freshwork's IPO, which values the company at ~$13B
The first public 'global' Indian SaaS company
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The US Senate has unanimously passed The Sunshine Protection Act, a bill to make daylight saving time permanent across the US.
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AWS still growing 33% at a $79B run rate with 29% margins.
What a business 💯
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Amazon now delivers >65% of its own packages.
For comparison in 2015, it delivered under 3%, and in 2017, under 20%.
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OnlyFans' 2022 financials are bonkers
- $5.6B in GMV (+17% y/y)
- $1.1B in revenue (+17% y/y)
- $525M in pre-tax profit (48% profit margin)
- 3.1M creators on the platform (+47% y/y)
- $338M in dividends paid out to owner
Likely the most successful "creator economy" company
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Take rates for different platforms:
Visa: 0.2%
Shopify: 2.7%
eBay: 10%
Amazon: 15%
Uber Rides: 23%
Lyft: 26%
App Store: 30%
Groupon: 50%
Shutterstock: 72%
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Today I learned Tesla has a $0 advertising budget and has never run a paid TV commercial
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Airbnb should start recommending their hosts add internet speed test screenshots to their listings
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Google paid Apple an estimated ~$10B in 2020 to be the default search engine on iOS 🤑
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Phenomenal video of a 12 year old Lewis Hamilton on his ambitions to become a Formula 1 driver.
He’s incredibly mature and poised for his age
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Meta announced that Reels (across their apps) is now on a $10B revenue run-rate, up 3.3x since last year.
For comparison, TikTok made ~$9.5B last year.
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I was today years old when I learned that Slack is an acronym for Searchable Log of All Communication and Knowledge
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FTX over the last 18 months:
July '21: Raises $900M at $18B
Oct '21: Raises $420.69M at $25B
Jan '22: Raises $400M at $32B
Jul '22: Bails out BlockFi for $250M
Sep '22: Buys Voyager for $1.4B
Nov '22: Acquired by Binance
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Just realized LinkedIn makes more revenue per year than Twitter, Snap and Pinterest combined
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As the saying goes, you either die a startup or live long enough to appoint a desi CEO
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Do you click on ads of companies you don't like so they get charged or are you normal
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Only just found out that Bezos was one of the first shareholders in Google 🤯
He invested $250K for ~1% of the company in 1998 (the year it was founded).
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Just absurd that Google search is a $150B/yr of revenue business still growing at 44% y/y.
The best business ever invented
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The story is fascinating
• founder bought domain for $55K in 2005
• bootstrapped for the first 15 yrs to over $50M/yr in revenue
• big spike with Queen's gambit + COVID (2-5x new users per week compared to normal)
• now a top 250 website globally
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Really hope the English Media don't scapegoat Rashford, Sancho, and Saka.
It takes a lot of courage for 23, 21, and 19 year olds to step up to take a penalty after coming on as substitutes in a Euro Final.
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FTX is a sponsor of the Cricket World Cup.
They removed the logo that used to be on the pitch for the final today 🤣
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Zoom, the company that became a verb during the pandemic, is down 12% since the pandemic started.
In that period:
- Revenue is up ~5x from ~$830M to ~$4.1B
- Operating margins are up from 4% to 28%
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Benchmark owns 11% of Uber which is worth ~$10B.
Just on that one exit, they will return ~26X of their 2011 $425M fund in 8 years which is an IRR of 50%. Wild.
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Tesla lost ~$50B in market cap today (which more than the market cap of the entirety of Twitter) because of a Twitter poll
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this remains one of the best slides ever in an activist investor presentation
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Wow the territory of Anguilla is making ~$3M per month from .ai domains, which is 1/3rd of their total monthly government budget
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Some companies that have market caps less than the total money they have raised:
• Bird ($120M mkt cap vs $1.2B raised)
• Wish ($810M mkt cap vs $2.9B raised)
• WeWork ($2.8B mkt cap vs $16.2B raised)
• Lyft ($5.1B mkt cap vs $7.3B raised)
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Some stats on Honey, which Paypal just acquired for $4B:
• Saved $1B for users this year
• Currently at $100M in revenue growing >100% y/y and profitable
• Works with 30K merchants and has 17M MAU (valuing it at roughly ~$230/user)
• Only raised ~$40M prior to acquisition
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Digital orders as a percent of sales
• McDonalds: ~20%
• Starbucks: ~25%
• Chipotle: ~50%
• Domino's: ~75%
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AWS still growing at 40% y/y at a $71B run rate. What an incredible business.
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The role the film The Social Network played in the rise of startups is underrated
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OH: A DAO is an organisation run on Discord instead of Slack
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Mailchimp went from $0 to $800M in revenue and a $12B valuation at acquisition with no outside funding.
Believe it is the first bootstrapped decacorn exit in tech.
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Meta makes $207 per year per user in the US and Canada, without charging them anything.
That's more than what many subscription products (Netflix, Spotify, etc) make from their paid users
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Twitter launching "Ticketed Spaces" soon, with the following revenue split:
• Creator: 56%
• Apple/Google: 30%
• Twitter: 14%
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Interesting how much Stripe and Adyen diverge in terms of profitability and opex.
Net revenue per employee
Adyen: $417K
Stripe: $403K
EBITDA per employee
Adyen: $237K
Stripe: negative
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The Chapwood index is really interesting.
Suggests that the true cost of living in America has been going up ~10-12% per year, rather than ~2% as implied by CPI.
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Since Parag took over Twitter 11 months ago, Twitter's stock is up 22% while the S&P is down 16%.
He'll also reportedly receive a severance of ~$42M.
Job well done I guess🤷♂️
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Netflix makes ~$190/yr from every paying subscriber in North America
Meta makes ~$206/yr from every (free) active user in North Ameria
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Wow, Klarna raising a new round at a $6.5B valuation, 85% lower than their round at $45.6B last June.
For comparison, Affirm is down ~75% in that period.
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American remote workers when they realize they'll have to compete against global talent willing to work for a quarter of the compensation
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This slide in Uber's first pitch deck always gets me.
TAM = $4.2B
Uber's bookings in 2020 = $58B
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For those interested in reading more about the technique, known as the Canary trap, check this out:
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Toast now makes 84% of its revenue from fintech solutions compared to 12% from subscriptions.
Similarly, Shopify makes 73% of its revenue from fintech solutions compared to 27% from subscriptions (+ app marketplace)
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amazing how Jack decided to use his free time (from no longer being ceo of Twitter) to shitpost on Twitter like the rest of us
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Some notes on Adobe's acquisition of Figma
Figma financials:
• $400M in ARR in 2022 growing ~100% y/y
• >150% net dollar retention
• >90% gross margins
• positive operating cash flows
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Duolingo just filed to go public. Some notes:
• $161M in revenue (75% subscriptions, 25% virtual goods and ads) which grew 129% y/y in 2020
• 72% gross margins, 9% fcf margins
• ~40M MAUs of which 4.5% are paid subs
• Make avg of $90/yr per sub or $5/yr per user in aggregate
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The co-founder of Asana, Dustin Moskovitz, has bought over $1B worth of Asana stock on the open market over the last year.
Might be the most high-conviction insider buying by an executive ever.
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When Lyft went public, it was spending $350M/yr on payment processing fees, a full 16% of their revenue.
Similar with Uber which was spending $750M/yr or 10% of their revenue in 2017.
Crazy how expensive payments can sometimes get for marketplaces
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Not every day you see an S-1 for a company planning to go public at an ~$80B valuation without the revenue line item in the financials
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Amazon's ads business is bigger than YouTube and growing faster.
- Youtube: $7.3B (+5% y/y)
- Amazon: $8.8B (+18% y/y)
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RXBar took on no outside money and sold to Kellogg for $600M.
The founder was discussing his plans to raise money when starting out, and his father told him: "You need to shut up and sell 1,000 bars"
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Microsoft's market cap has grown (an average of) ~$805M per day since Satya Nadella became CEO in 2014.
INSANE fact of the day: Apple's market cap has grown $700m PER DAY since Tim Cook became CEO in 2011.
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Kind of crazy that Twilio which does ~$3.4B in revenue a year growing ~40% y/y with 125% NDR only has an enterprise value of ~$9B.
The market currently values it at less than 3x revenue.
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Amazon's ads business made $31.2B in revenue in 2021 growing at 32%.
It's bigger than YouTube's ads business (~$29B) 😯
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Uber was valued at $68B in private markets in August 2016.
5.5 years later, its market cap is still essentially the same (~$69B)
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Alibaba now under its IPO price over 7.5 years ago.
In that period:
• Revenue is up ~12x from ~$10B to ~$120B
• Operating income is up ~3x from $5B to ~$14B
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Spotify wrapped going viral every year makes me wonder why they don't invest even more in social features.
People clearly want to share and discover music from friends throughout the year
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It's really amazing how Google Docs takes me to the wrong account between the two that I want to use 99% of the time
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