Steven Strazza
@sstrazza
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Recovering Corporate American. Passion for Markets & Ties to Tax. Love 10-Ks the Ocean & Charts. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. Director of Research @allstarcharts .
Key West, FL
Joined July 2012
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At 44%, the percentage of stocks that are overbought in the S&P 500 $SPX is at its highest level on record
The only other readings above 40% were in June 2003 and June 2020
It's not bearish...
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Discretionary stocks entering a bear market on relative terms was a pretty good leading signal during the last two crashes. We're there now... $XLY $SPY
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This has worked well in the past. Is this time different?
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People you know but don't want to hang out with are on $FB
People you don't know but would love to hang out with are on $TWTR
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So, the biggest, baddest company in the world is going to complete a double top right in the middle of a bull market for stocks?
Is that really the bet you want to make?
I'm making the bet this is just a failed top in $AAPL
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This is the right kind of environment to swing for the fences. We like $MARA long with a target 4x higher
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Last week, 47% of $SPX stocks registered overbought momentum readings
Last time we had such an extreme reading was 43% on June 8, 2020
A few days after, S&P fell -5.89% in a single session. Investors freaked
It then went on to rally more than 60% over the next year and a half
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When you zoom out on Copper and Gold it looks a lot more like this is the beginning of something rather than the end of something for commodities... $HG_F $GC_F $GLD $CRB
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Breakouts are sticking. Breakdowns are failing.
It's not bear market behavior.
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Don't underestimate the index drag effect that comes with these 12-mo base breakouts in $AAPL & $AMZN
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The BAD NEWS is... tomorrow kicks off the worst seasonal period of the year
The GOOD NEWS is... it only lasts just over a week, and then seasonality becomes a significant tailwind
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Semiconductors, homebuilders, and broker-dealers are three of the most risk-on and procyclical industry groups in the market
They are all trading at all-time highs
$SMH $XHB $XBD
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24-yr base breakout for semiconductors relative to the S&P 500 $SOX $SPX
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% of $SPY stocks at new 6-month highs just hit its highest level since the '90s w/ a reading of almost 50%
The last 2 times we saw readings above 45% came just after the 2002 and 2009 lows
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Is it me or are growth stocks trading like they just found out rates are heading higher and staying there longer?
$QQQ $TLT
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Breadth is so bad that the S&P 500 advance-decline line is about to make new all-time highs... $SPX 🤔
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Some bearish info from the bond market w/ $HYG vs $IEI making new lows...
Will the stock market follow? $SPX
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S&P 500 just closed the year with its 9th consecutive up week, marking the longest weekly win streak since 1985 $SPX
1989 & 2004 also experienced 9-week streaks
The record is 13 straight, which happened in 1957
Happy New Year, bulls 🥂
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Extreme volatility in both directions is common at turning points
Last time $DXY had a single day GAIN as large as Friday's was 3/19/20
Last time $DXY had a single day LOSS as large as today's was 3/26/20
$DXY peaked on 3/20/20
Stocks bottomed the next trading day on 3/23/20
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A "technical correction" is when stocks go down and journalists are unable to make up a good reason for it
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Chinese tech stocks just registered their 2nd best 2-week period in history... This kind of momentum surge is as good of confirmation as you will get for the trendline breaks and new highs out of China this week $CQQQ
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More stocks made new 52-week highs yesterday than when the major averages were at all-time highs a little over a year ago 🧐
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While everyone frets over the $INTC selloff, let's talk about the real story from semis
$TSM & $ASML are not just two of the largest semis. They are two of the largest companies in the world
Critically important to the global economy
Both just printed breakaway gaps above…
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There's not enough volatility in crypto for me. I think I'll start trading bonds...
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The more "textbook" a pattern is, the more likely it is to fail
They become crowded trades and are targeted by institutions for this reason
If it's too clean, it's only a matter of time before they mess it up
Embrace the imperfect and/or get comfortable trading failed patterns
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The most important, most risk-on stocks in the world just closed the week at fresh all-time highs both on absolute terms and relative to the broader market $SMH
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“I never use valuation to time the market. I use liquidity considerations and technical analysis for timing. Valuation only tells me how far the market can go once a catalyst enters the picture”
-Stanley Druckenmiller (The New Market Wizards) 🧙🏻♂️
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Is it bearish that the largest and most important stocks are collapsing to new lows?
Or is it bullish that the averages are holding up so well despite this weakness from the largest weightings?
$MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $SPY $QQQ
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2021 was all about consolidations in the context of primary uptrends
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Coinbase Global $COIN is up 417% this year, making it the top performer in the Russell 1000 Large Cap Index
It is also the top performer (and top holding) in the ARK flagship fund $ARKK where it contributed roughly 25% of YTD gains
Unfortunately, Wall Street analysts completely…
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Odds are that ONE of these two is going to be wrong...
So, which is it?
Are we listening to Silver or Gold here? $SLV $GLD
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Those who are saying these kinds of rallies are normal during bear markets are just being lazy
While it is true that bear market rallies come fast and furious, if you weigh all the evidence, there is an overwhelming amount of data suggesting this is a bullish initiation phase
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If you're into things like platinum, palladium, rhodium, and iridium you should keep this one on your radar $SBSW
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Pan American is to Silver markets as Newmont is to Gold... Do we make new highs here? $PAAS $SLV
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Euro breaking to its lowest level in nearly 20yrs $EUR/ $USD
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What are inflationary stocks telling us about inflation? $GDX $SLX $COPX
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Despite having no similarities at all aside from both coming public last Sept, Palantir $PLTR and Corsair $CRSR have followed similar patterns since
Both are solid companies (*I'm biased*), but strange to see all these recent IPOs trade together like an industry group would $IPO
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Biotechs completing a long-awaited trend reversal with authority this week $XBI $IBB
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Is Newmont trying to tell us something about Gold here?
$NEM at its highest level since August
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Looking for equity market vehicles in the world of crypto?
Forget the spot $BTC ETFs
$COIN & $MARA are as clean as it gets against the summer 2022 & '23 highs with much higher beta
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After two long years, altcoin season has officially returned...
The only responsible thing you can do now is to yolo irresponsibly
$ETH $BNB $XRP $ADA $DOGE $SOL $MATIC $LTC $DOT $SHIB
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In case there wasn't already enough chart porn this week...
Is it different this time? $SPX
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Is "Bonds, Bitcoin, & Big Tech" the 2023 playbook?
$TLT $BTC $XLK
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After 13-years of NOTHING, will Emerging Markets finally get it done this time...?
Can't be bearish Equities if $EEM is above 56. Period.
*One of the most important charts in the world right now*
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This is a logical level for small caps to make a tradable low $IWM
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Gold $GLD resolving higher from ~12mo continuation patterns above former ATHs in Swiss Franc $CHF & $USD
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The action in $XBI this week is a textbook example of what we call a "decisive resolution"
-Breakaway gap above a key polarity zone
-Relative trend breaks out in tandem
-ST momentum thrust - best single-day performance since 2022 on abs & rel terms
-Momentum hits overbought…
Biotechs completing a long-awaited trend reversal with authority this week $XBI $IBB
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Bulls are hoping this is a failed top and not a head & shoulders reversal for big-cap tech $XLK
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@allstarcharts
People use too many diagonal trend lines. That's not how price memory works. Keep em horizontal as much as possible.
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Market rallies higher on news that Jerome Powell likes to ride his bike
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What do we all think about quarterly candles? Is it too much?
Because the Q4 action in Rusell Microcaps basically just engulfed the prior 5 quarters. Wow.
What an epic shake and rally for $IWC
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There aren't many stocks that excite me more than $DKNG over the long term
Primary uptrend with impressive relative strength
Industry leader in a secular growth market
Solid fundamentals and another monster earnings beat
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Fresh 52-week lows for small caps. More importantly, this puts $IWM back below the prior cycle highs from 2018 and 2020 📉
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The median stock price is back below its dot-com bubble and pre-financial crisis highs... zero progress in about 25yrs $VLG
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New highs from Energy stocks even with Crude about 25% off the March highs 👀💪 $XLE $CL_F
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Now that we're back at the pre-financial crisis highs, do bears finally come for energy? $XLE
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Starting to see commodity stocks outside of energy resolve higher and confirm the price action in commodity markets
New highs for agribusiness stocks today $MOO
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The last time semiconductors completed a short-term top $SMH went on to fall roughly 45% from its peak.
What kind of follow-through will we get this time?
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$IPO index completing a trend reversal and breaking out to its highest level since April 2022
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When they say "Japan slips into recession" they mean GDP fell during the Q that began 229 days ago and again during the Q that ended 46 days ago
What they don't tell you is Japanese stocks are +15% since the start of the recession and the Nikkei is less than 2% from new ATHs $NK
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Some of the most speculative stocks in the market just recorded their best month ever $ARKK 👀
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Arguably THE most important chart to watch right now is the US 10yr Yield $TNX
Closed the week right back at the "scene of the crime" just beneath its 2012, 2016, & 2019 lows ~1.35-1.40%
Will this key former support level now act as resistance?
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Mid Cap Industrials are the first sector index to achieve new all-time highs
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Would you be buying or selling the strongest stock market index in the world right now...? $QQQ $NDX 🤔
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Based on early leadership, Solana is likely to be the big winner from this new bull market in crypto. And this month-long coil that just resolved could be as good of an opportunity to get in as any $SOL
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$VIX has not been overbought and $SPX has not been oversold since January 🤔
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You won't find a more important chart/level than $30 in the Financial Sector SPDR $XLF right now
This represents where prices peaked and rolled over just before covid, in 2018, and prior to the financial crisis... the implications of this level breaking are HUGE
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Materials just registered their 10th consecutive week of gains, the longest streak on record since the launch of sector SPDR $XLB (Dec 1998)
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There doesn’t always have to be a causal relationship or some seemingly intelligent story about why the price of an asset is falling.
There were more sellers than buyers. That is all that really matters. You sleep better at night once you accept this.
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Copper futures finding support at the prior cycle (2018) highs $HG_F
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If this is a tradable low for growth stocks, what are the best vehicles to profit from the coming rally?
I nibbled on some $AMD today (among other things).
Long against 100, targeting YTD highs at 133.
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The breadth thrusts that are worth paying attention to are the ones that come in clusters
We're starting to see that now. Here's a big one from small caps
The percentage of Russell 2000 stocks hitting overbought just registered the highest reading in over 10 years $IWM 👀
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Sellers are gaining momentum
Yesterday, $SPX fell below its Feb & Apr highs and the 38% Fibonacci retracement
Today, it is violating both the AVWAP from ATH and AVWAP from last year's low
Momentum is oversold for the 2nd time this month
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This price action in silver miners is definitely not bearish for precious metals $GLD $SLV $SIL $SLVP $AG $PAAS
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"Breakouts And Breadth Expansion"
@allstarcharts
Breadth is confirming these new highs from the indexes $IWM $MDY $SPY
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There is a GameStop-esque short interest of 77% in the crypto bank, Silvergate $SI as price enters a massive memory gap zone on the price chart 👀
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We already lost the homeys, semis, and banks...
Now we can add trannys to that list w/ $IYT & $XTN making new 52-week lows today
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$AMD continues to stair-step higher after breaking out of a 20-yr base a few months ago... more new ATHs today.
Here is the chart zoomed back to 1999... I see no reason why price shouldn't be in the $100's 6-12 mo's from now
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$BTC breaking out of a textbook reversal pattern to its highest level in 9 months...
Who has an explanation for this?
Lower rates? $USD? Financial/banking instability?
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So far, in 2024:
US Dollar Index $DXY is up about 4%
US 10yr Yield $TNX has risen about 70bps
Despite higher rates and a strengthening dollar, the US stock market $SPX has gained about 8%
What do you think stocks will do if these intermarket headwinds abated...?
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I've been focused on tech stocks that have steadily outperformed the best tech stocks since last year. They keep working. $UBER $DKNG $PLTR
Here are some favs sporting textbook trend reversals relative to $XLK
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I think the fed finally broke inflation last week. The price action from crude oil supports this.
$CL_F just resolved lower from a bearish continuation pattern below a downward-sloping 200-day moving average.. in doing so, it violated the 2018 highs and AVWAP from all-time lows
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Some people will seriously lose it if crypto goes back into rally mode right now following the disaster that 2022 was... With the highest momentum reading in 2yrs as $BTC tries to reclaim the prior-cycle highs, I think that's where we're headed. Conditions are ripe 📈
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Steel stocks are on pace for their highest weekly close in almost 12 years $SLX 🦾
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In early December 2020, the VanEck Coal ETF $KOL was delisted
A few days later, the Economist cover story was titled "Making Coal History"
Peabody Energy, the largest coal producer in the US, bottomed a few weeks before both of these events and is up over 20x since... $BTU
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