Steve Koczela
@skoczela
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President of @MassINCPolling , co-host of @The_HorseRace . Iraq veteran.
Boston MA
Joined December 2010
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We're looking at the possibility that Republicans will have nominated 6 of the 9 Supreme Court justices, despite winning the popular vote just once in 32 years.
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For national media reporting on Massachusetts results, a few pronunciation tips to sound like a local.
- Hingham = hing-HAM
- Woburn = WOH-burn
- Worcester= WAR-chest-er
- Concord = con-CORD
- South Boston = SoBo
- Dorchester = “The chest”
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The first part of our new NH Democratic Primary poll for
@WBUR
is now posted, shows big gains for Sanders since December.
-Sanders 29%
-Buttigieg 17%
-Biden 14%
-Warren 13%
-Klobuchar 6%
-Yang 5%
-Gabbard 5%
-Steyer 2%
All others 1% or less.
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CNN Exit Polls...
-Who voted Republican? White voters over 45.
-Who voted Democrat? Everyone else.
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UPDATE: It floated to Boston and sold for $922,000.
An unoccupied house on stilts in Rodanthe, North Carolina, as it collapses into the ocean this afternoon.
Was worth $381,200 according to Zillow.
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We polled a fake Kennedy in 2011 and found his fav/unfav at 25/1 among Mass Dems.
Every Massachusetts politician must wake up in the morning thinking "god I hope there isn't some Pete Kennedy out there about to primary me".
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State poll today...
Michigan:
Clinton 41%
Trump 32%
.
New Hampshire
Clinton 47%
Trump 32%
.
Pennsylvania:
Clinton 49%
Trump 38%
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Biden cites $14,000 a year as the outrageous annual cost of childcare. I’d wager parents in the Boston area would jump for joy if childcare were *only* $14,000 a year.
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Modern politics in one chart: Last day of search traffic for Covfefe in red, Paris Agreement in blue.
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In the most Massachusetts scandal ever, this State Senator is charged with receiving $1 million in bribes and 500 lbs of free Dunkin' Donuts coffee.
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Everyone of a certain age.
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I am afraid the good folks at the
@washingtonpost
are cracking under pressure.
𝙁 𝙍 𝙊 𝙕 𝙀 𝙉 𝙋 𝙄 𝙕 𝙕 𝘼
B̷͚́ ̴̣̺̆̂Á̸̤̊ ̵̭͚̆T̷̰̿ ̴̗́̿T̵̠̎͘ ̸̈̋͜͜L̷̢̲̐ ̴̪͠E̷͕͇̿ ̴̲̒ ̵̗͚̅Ṙ̶͔̣̊ ̶͍̔͊O̷̜͓̔ ̸̰̝͝Y̵͕͕̑̉ ̴͙̌̄A̴̬̰̾͗ ̵͉̐L̴̜̃ ̸̻̩̈́E̶̫̺̓ ̸̱̐́
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"A prominent internet troll close to the administration," is a phrase in this article.
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I may have missed something. is he done reforming government and establishing peace in the Middle East?
Fox News is touting a "comprehensive immigration plan" being put together by Jared Kushner that contains all of two elements: BORDER SECURITY and LEGAL IMMIGRATION.
#BeyondParody
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“Vaccination mandates are essentially a recognition that vaccinated people also have feelings too and that the burden of fighting the pandemic shouldn’t be on them alone.”
@juliettekayyem
is done waiting around.
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100% of Massachusetts lives less than 5 minutes from a Dunkin’.
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In the last 2 years of the Southie St Patrick's Day parade, there have been 776 public drinking citations issued and 14 arrests.
St Patrick's Parade organizers call parade celebration of country, community & catholic faith..says not a question of discrimination
#7news
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...which is to say, the idea that banning a gay veterans group addresses the parade's key challenge to Catholic values is dubious.
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This is literally what insurance is.
Trump adviser Moore on unfairness of the healthy subsidizing the sick: "people want insurance for their own families, not other peoples' "
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New Hampshire polls:
@WBUR
Trump 40%
Clinton 39%
.
Suffolk /
@BostonGlobe
Trump 42%
Clinton 42%
.
ARG poll
Trump 48%
Clinton 43%
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SCOOP: I'm told by sources close to the conversations that every elected official in Massachusetts currently "strongly considering" a run for governor.
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I will not support efforts by one team to change the rules.
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This morning, Trump tweeted "As most people are aware, according to the Polls, I won EVERY debate, including the three with Crooked Hillary Clinton..." Here is what the polls really showed.
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It’s gotten to where the duck boats just drive in a big loop picking up whatever championship team happens to be loitering along the route.
#superbowl
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Trump approve/disapprove now 42/53 in Gallup tracker. The -11 net disapproval is his worst so far.
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Just a vicious self own.
Moments ago, Vice President Mike Pence defended President Trump pressing Ukraine's Zelensky to investigate the Bidens. "The American people have a right to know if the vice president of the United States, or his family, profited from his position."
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In all my years of polling, I don't recall seeing 97% support for anything.
@QuinnipiacPoll
finds 97% support for "requiring background checks for all gun buyers".
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Charlie Baker doubling down on the Electoral College. “My biggest problem with going to a majority vote is you basically put the election in the hands of a whole bunch of big states and everybody else doesn’t matter anymore,”
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"New 2020 poll: Good news for Buttigieg and Harris, declines for Biden and Sanders." This is a headline for a poll showing Biden going from 35% to 33% and Buttigieg going from 2% to 3%.
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All of those masculinity hot takes should grapple with the fact that NH voters see Biden as "more of a real man" by a 10 point margin.
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“That’s the age I was when I dated Roy Moore, because my braces were off.”
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🚨🚨 New Change Research poll of Massachusetts Senate Dem primary. 🚨🚨
- Joe Kennedy III 42%
- Ed Markey 25%
- Steve Pemberton 7%
- Shannon Liss-Riordan 5%
#mapoli
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At left, a map of vaccination rates for 5-11 year-olds in Massachusetts from today's
@BostonGlobe
editorial, which does not mention partisanship as a contributing factor. At right, a map of Clinton vs Trump results.
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Boston rejects new housing because it's got too much housing in it.
Board rejects apartment building near Ashmont T station for lack of parking, being too big for its lot, too tall for the neighborhood
#dorchester
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Not sure about this. Getting into downtown Boston these days is legitimately hard. Easily 2-3 hours of travel per day even if you’re just 5-10 miles away.
State Street to bring employees back to the office four days a week
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Congress is unprofitable. So is the Army. Police? Big money losers. Road paving? Massive government bailout every year. NASA is a money pit. The State Department is a cost center. What money has SCOTUS ever made?
Here’s the deal on the United States Postal Service: it’s not a business!
It’s actually a public service. The word “service” is right there in the name.
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In case you're wondering why they are late, Massachusetts state law dictates election results must be delivered to Boston via Pony Express and read aloud to the Sacred Cod before they can be reported publicly.
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The most powerful Jewish woman in America.
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I often think back on an AAPOR presentation I saw which demonstrated people would tolerate worse outcomes for themselves if they thought the out group was suffering more.
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It's helpful to just think of SCOTUS as a legislative branch which never stands for election or reelection.
The Supreme Court STRIKES DOWN a New York gun-control law that required people to show "proper cause" to get a license to carry a concealed handgun outside the home. The vote is 6-3.
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Sandusky, Ohio, Makes Election Day A Paid Holiday — By Swapping Out Columbus Day
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It’s 48 degrees outside. Time for the great Massachusetts debate. When is it ok to turn on the furnace for the first time?
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U.S. parents approve / disapprove of Trump administration handling of school reopening:
- Approve: 36%
- Disapprove: 63%
WaPo / Ipsos poll
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I have experienced the symptoms of COVID-19. I have been fully isolated and am now mostly recovered (whew). I tried multiple times to get tested to no avail. I did not meet the criteria (travel, contact with known case, NBA player, etc), so no test was available to me.
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I looked for any evidence that people were quitting en masse over vax mandates. There isn't any. What data there is shows remarkable consistency, and gives no support to the predictions of mass resignations.
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Nikki Haley steps down. Kanye at the White House today. Pretty obvious where this is headed...
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I'm pouring over early turnout figures and am ready to project Democrats will maintain control of both houses of the Massachusetts State Legislature.
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If Twitter shuts down and Facebook / Insta / WhatsApp are gone, backups are ...
1. AIM
2. MySpace
3. Friendster
4. Smoke Signals
5. Carrier Pigeons
11,596. LinkedIn
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New
@bostonherald
NH Dem Primary poll teased here apparently shows...
- Sanders 29%
- Biden 22%
- Warren 16%
- Buttigieg 10%
No writeup yet, but I assume that is coming.
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Well that should do it.
Brookline Town Meeting calls on Congress to investigate Trump.
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I feel better knowing 26 year old MBAs are on the case.
REUTERS: Cuomo hires
@McKinsey
"to develop a science-based plan for the safe economic reopening of the region that can thwart expected pressure from President Donald Trump to move more rapidly .."
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Trump is the only candidate I've seen who just reads his pollsters' crosstabs demographic groups out loud. "Seniors," "Suburban women," "housewives," etc.
Trump in full: "So I ask you to do me a favor. Suburban women: will you please like me? Please. Please. I saved your damn neighborhood, OK? The other thing: I don't have that much time to be that nice. You know, I can do it, but I gotta go quickly."
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We're running reduced MBTA train service for the whole region until we get enough dispatchers but the dispatcher job posting is only internal? Does this make sense?
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My grandmother Ruth Koczela got her COVID vaccine today! She’s a US Navy WWII veteran and turns 100 this year.
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If this ever happened, it would give a much better idea what we’re up against than the charts we’ve all been staring at.
Interesting scooplet from
@LisaMarieBoothe
:
“WH looking into random coronavirus test sampling of U.S. population”
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MBTA service cuts.
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This is painful to look at how far we’ve fallen.
A map of where the overnight transit service was in 1940, back when Boston had 24/7 service.
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This is legitimately wild. "[Healey] said “senior MBTA officials under the previous administration knew about issues with the Green Line Extension . . . tracks years ago and did not disclose them to our administration or address them on their watch.”"
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This. This. This. Nothing you’re seeing in America about demographic distribution is a reliable measure of who all actually has it or had it.
The age distribution of people with COVID depends on how you test! Only test symptomatic people and you'll believe older people are more likely to be infected. Test randomly, like in Iceland, and realize young people are more likely to get it and also to have low or no symptoms.
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I remember discovering you can't Clorox wipe a bag of goldfish because it disintegrates.
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Calls to mind all those lively conversations in my mentions when we'd put out a poll showing Clinton ahead.
Twitter identified 36,746 accounts generating automated, election-related tweets... in the final 2 months of the campaign alone.
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@TheRickWilson
A small person who overthrows the government would be a ... Mini Couper? (Yes, I will see myself out)
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The pieces came today and my pandemic life achievement is complete.
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For those outside of MA, Lawrence is 80% Latino. Biggest shift toward Trump of any city / town in Massachusetts. Comports with the shifts we've seen in other area nationwide.
Shift in 2-party margin TOWARD Trump in Massachusetts urban areas, between 2016 and 2020.
- Lawrence 21% (!!!!!!!!)
- New Bedford 10%
- Fall River 10%
- Springfield 9%
- Holyoke 9%
- Lowell 4%
- Worcester 3%
- Boston 2%
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My grandmother, Ruth Koczela, was one of the US Navy "Code Girls" who left her job as a school teacher and helped break enemy codes in WWII. She turns 98 today.
My WWII Navy vet grandmother turns 97 today. Here she is shooting around to celebrate her birthday.
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New
@EchelonInsights
poll gives Clinton debate win. Now up to 5 real polls, all telling the same story.
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We're not talking enough about the giant tray of cookies on the desk.
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Republicans won 0 seats in congress in MA in 2018. The last time that happened was 2016, 2014, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2006, 2004, 2002, 2000, 1998, and 1996.
Republicans only won 1 seat in New Jersey's House delegation (out of 12). The last time they won less than 3 seats there was 1912.
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My Grandmother, WWII Navy “code girl” Ruth Koczela, went back to the Navy Chapel where she was married 75 years ago. I always knew she was awesome but didn’t know her unit worked on cracking the Enigma code until just now. She’s 100 years old.  
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There is no relationship between what you paid for college when you went back in the stone age and what families today are paying.
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As we draw closer to the light ahead, the shadow of PTSD will grow longer. We’ve all lived through the trauma of a year-long fight against an invisible enemy that has claimed hundreds of thousands of our friends, family, and neighbors.
My new piece:
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@GothamChess
That's how my siblings and I play bughouse. Game's not over until you capture the king, You can interpose to escape checkmate. Also if you don't see a king capture coming, game's over. Makes it a bit more ... uncivilized.
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Trump hits 38% approve, 56% disapprove in Gallup tracker. New low.
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