Shirley Ze Yu
@shirleyzeyu
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Political economist & professor on China's geo-ecomomics and geopolitics in the emerging world. Words in @FT @WSJ; On global TV & print
Joined November 2016
China plans permanent human presence on the Moon by 2036-2045. New territorial frontier is officially extended to the Moon, by the US, China, and Russia, lawlessly. Echoing the 17-19th century? .
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If there weren’t the Great Recession, there wouldn’t have been the great economic divergence between the East and the West. History may have been rewritten. Greedy Wall Street should be accountable for many global issues today.
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I had the great privilege to deliver my first lecture as a foreign faculty professor at the prestigious @NDU_EDU, on China’s Global Quest in the Xi Jinping Era. I thank Dean Abid Ali & leadership of the NDU. I am deeply impressed about the academic rigor and policy independence.
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China's GDP will surpass the GDP of the #EU (27 members combined) in 2020, with a near certainty now. If China's GDP grows at 2% and EU contracts by 7% in 2020, this would take China's GDP to $14.7T, and the EU GDP to $14.4T(exchange rate constant). An inflection point.
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World, take a look at this aerial film release of a 1,000 beds hospital to quarantine #WuhanCoronovirus patients, which started construction on Chinese New Year’s eve, to be completed in 6 DAYs! . Only #China can do this! No other country can!
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The first 21 years of the 21st century started with China’s accession to the WTO, the beginning of China’s meteoric rise. It ended with China’s pronouncement that it is on equal footing with the world(US). Now it's about winning the 21st century. View.
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Henry Kissinger warned #China #US conflict could be a lot worse than the Cold War, if allowed to fester. He warned how the world sleep walked into World War I. @neweconforum
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96% of urban Chinese own their own properties, according to PBoC, vs. 60% of Americans.
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PE ratio at the Hong Kong stock exchange surpassed the Shanghai stock exchange in 2020.
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In addition to Microsoft’s efforts to acquire a portion of Bytedance #TikTok, surely the Chinese state is going after Zhang Yining to acquire a portion of #Bytedance as well.
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China produced 2.45 million and sold 2.42 million automobiles in July, nearing the highest figures on record. Germany produced 264,000 and sold 206,000 in July, 10% of China's. Global auto manufacturing center has solidly shifted to China.
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China's export and import by lateral comparison. Interestingly, the US, Germany, and China are not only the world's largest exporters, importers, but the centers of global production. Small regional economies show tendencies to cluster into their industrial value chains.
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70% of products manufactured by foreign companies in China is sold for the Chinese market. 30% is for export. If foreign companies decide to leave China, they are leaving 70% of their revenue source behind. Huang Qifan, leading state policy maker on #China’s economic cards.
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#China’s top 50 global brands 2019, ranked by global equity analytic firm BrandZ. Top 5 are @Huawei, @Lenovo, @AlibabaGroup, @Xiaomi, @BytedanceTalk . All 5 are in technology.
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Not in Zhengzhou, but Shenzhen. Depositors protest in front of the Minsheng Bank in Shenzhen, asking for their savings.
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A Chinese colleague told me the US’s foreign policy seeks China’s submission. I find the view contextual in culture. For hierarchies/autocracies, the ultimate goal is submission. When the US went to Iraq, it did not seek submission. It sought victory. Submission is unAmerican.
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Auto-generated both EN and CHN captions for a 10-min video in <5 minutes, with ~85% accuracy. All costs <$1. Because the #AI service is so efficient, more people will use it, making AI smarter much faster. Not doing a commercial. I am scared of how quickly this is happening.
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Day 4 aerial view of the first 1,000 bed #CoronaVirus hospital under construction in #Wuhan, for all who are keen on progress. #China
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Contributing shares to the UN regular budget. China went from a 1% to 12% contributor over 20 years. Japan shrank share contribution the most. US has been responsible, despite complaints.
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Of the 7.2 million electric cars on the roads globally in 2019, 47% were in China.
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Wang Yi raised the new “ 4 No’s” in US-China relations. The US shall not interfere with Chinese domestic politics; shall not harm Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity; shall not suppress Chinese trade and technology; shall remove all illegal and baseless sanctions on.
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See the evolution of China’s concentric position in the global supply chain, and the countries most reliant on China in 2017. Further, watch how much Japan’s concentric position in the global supply chain shrank.
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Happy new year to my dear 14.7K followers. #China is the biggest change variable of the century, for better or worse. Thank you for trusting me! Let’s together shape 2020!
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A @HarvardBiz research, showing China’s overwhelming volume superiority in global #AI scientific papers. Blue:China; Orange: the US
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National Security Advisor O’Brien outlined the US executive actions in detail to confront China:.1) The US banned telecom operators, such as Huawei, from accessing personal and private data in the US, and also imposed restrictions on US technology from going into Huawei; 1/.
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World's most valued unicorn is China's @BytedanceTalk at $140B valuation. Followed by:.Fintech Stripe (valued at $95B);.Aerospace manufacturer SpaceX ($74B);.China's ride-hailing company @DidiGlobal ($62B);.Grocery delivery Instacart ($39B) .
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The average wealth of urban Chinese households is $449,200. Beijing ranks the highest in average household wealth, at $1.2Million, among all Chinese cities. #China
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In a recent writing, I had to refer to China’s length of coastline. In Wikipedia, it says 14,000KM. In Chinese dictionary, it says 30,500 KM. Big difference for the obvious reason. I can imagine global academics will soon fall victim and be asked to correct research too.
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It’s my honor to speak with Nobel Laureate, MIT Prof. Bengt Holmstrom. He is a world’s best mind on corporate governance. I look forward to exploring views on how to reconcile SOEs’ corporate governance structure, and the omnipotent role of the Party in business. On @HeyChina2
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#AI is very hard to put back in the bottle. Whoever has an open system will get ahead, says Bill Gates @neweconforum #China
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Thoughts on implications of #CoronaVirus globally. 1. On Authoritarianism. There is NO correlation between epidemic containment and authoritarianism. Iran is authoritarian, but absolutely fails at the task. We need effective governments, whether authoritarian or democratic.
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Chinese companies are listing in the US at record rate in 2021. No one supports Chinese tech companies’ global rise more than American billionaires, and Wall Street financiers.
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My great honor to participate in @BBCGlobalQuest talk on .Who is Winning the US China Tech Wars | BBC Global Questions . Hope you enjoy the debate.
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China’s industrial profit (Jan-April) has hit a high point since 2018, absorbing raw material price spikes. This means commodities’ price hike has already been passed to Chinese-made final products. Inflation will be spilled over globally now through China’s export.
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From spokesman of #China’s Ministry of Commerce: . Among 832 national poverty villages, online retail sales up by 13.3% in H1; . ASEAN is now China’s No. 1 trading partner.
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2020, #China will grow about 2%, #EU will contact about 7%，and #US will contract about 5%. Where else would Europe seek growth and market, but working with China? . My take on #Bloomberg @business with @HaidiLun & @SheryAhnNews
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China's fiscal revenue shortfall is estimated at ~$1Trillion. The fiscal drain directly affects China's ability to execute large infrastructure projects, the last-resort economic remedy. More gov't debt is demanded. The 33-stimulus measures spelled out y'day is not enough.
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Outbound FDI in 2019. China's ODI began to shrink in 2016, following a market crash and “go global”restrictions. US's ODI fell below 0 in 2018, indicating Trump-era corporate on-shoring. ASEAN+3 invested overseas nearly =Japan+US+China in 2019. ASEAN is now a major investor.
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Chinese IC industry aims to go beyond Moore’s Law, to catch up in the global chip race.
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China asked Russia to expand its electricity export to China, according to Russian press. Pockets of Beijing will incur blackouts this holiday season. This wave of blackouts is largely driven by coal shortage.
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Pleased to offer this new course at the @IEbusiness IMBA. China represents the single most important change variable to the global economy, along with the 4th industrial revolution. Now they’re compounded. Standing at global business frontier requires modern China literacy.
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56M Chinese are locked down now in effective “quarantine” in their cities. More over the coming days cannot go back to work or home. Businesses and schools will effectively be shut down after the holiday. Major sacrifice by these people, and bravery! #China #coronoavirus.
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Huawei will debut its operating system, Harmony OS, in June. Harmony is forecast to be in 300M devices by the end of 2021, incld. 200M Huawei devices. Harmony will be in Huawei cars, and possibly turn all things in its ecosystem smart. The race is not over. It’s just on!
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In this critical economic junction, the National Bureau of Statistics launched a special task force to investigate local governments’ GDP accounting fraud yesterday, echoing the suspicion over China’s economic performance.
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Alibaba is fined for RMB 18.2Billion($3B)! There should be a big ticket waiting for Tencent soon!.
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#China will increasingly play a more active security role in the #MiddleEast. Since 2013, China has invested approx. $10B in #Iraq.$13B in #Iran, with $400B promised in 2019；.$120B in MENA region；.$186B in Sub-Saharan Africa. Financial stake is too big to risk.
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China devises $7trillion infrastructure investments across 24 provinces as of March 24. This is 10 times bigger than the monetary stimulus China pumped in 2008, of course unleashed over 5-10 years. The plan is massive. It requires 70% to be financed by non-public sectors.
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‘@MSCI_Inc launched 20 thematic indices to capture China’s megatrends. These include disruptive technology index, future mobility index, robotics index, digital economy index, autonomous technology. Index. millennials, and aging society indexes. Crystal clear!
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A glimpse of China’s income disparity from the national Statistical yearbook. In sum: . 90% of Chinese earned <RMB 5,000 (US$767) a month. 62% earned <RMB 2,000 (US$307) a month. Only 71 million people earned >RMB 10,000 (US$1,534) a month.
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China's total newly contracted projects with #BRI countries hit c. US$31 billion, with a turnover of c. US$17 billion in the first quarter, up 19.4% and 12.4% respectively. At this speed, China will be signing >$120Billion across the BRI in 2021.
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China’s wealth management market stood at c. $18 trillion in 2020, following growth by 10 folds over the past decade. It’s set to double before 2025, implying an incremental creation of $20 trillion market in 5 years.
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#China singularly stepped up and cancelled zero interest debt repayments by Africa due before the end of 2020. No other country has done similar. Cancellation could potentially be up to a few billion. This alone is exemplary. My take @LSEpublicevents on #Africa debt relief.
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China will subject its world views to the world, just as the West subjects its. There’s no use keeping a world view to oneself. Mutual subjectivity won’t narrow divergence. It sets up a battle for civilizational supremacy & owning the history. #SCMP.
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Chinese RMB is already used to price Iran’s oil trade. It is the largest component of Iran’s foreign currency reserve. News from China rumors the transitory new currency Toman will be pegged to the RMB. Petro-RMB already begins to form.
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On @bbc5live Wake Up to Money to discuss Jingye’s acquisition of British Steel. China’s deal offer is winning the populist voter base in the #UK, the hearts of the British people. Very smart move! #BritishSteel @TeleComment @guardianopinion
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#EU imports more from China than any other country, including the US. China is only the EU’s third largest export market. EU runs a €181 Billion deficit with China.
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China invested US$7.7 billion in The US in the first 3 quarters of 2020, concentrated in entertainment, health and biotech, and natural resources. It was Europe, not the US, that suffered the most from loss of Chinese investments, consistently from 2017 through 2020.
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Day 5 construction of #Wuhan #caronavirus 1,000 bed hospital. 2-story structure nearly complete. There is no other country who can do this. I repeat! . There is also no #China economic miracle. The miracle is but its billion hard working people.
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My interview with the world’s oldest newspaper @Weekendavisen, by Peter Harmsen. #HongKong must be part of a large South #China economic space, an 11-city cluster. It has to be some kind of Asian Silicon Valley, just bigger. @LSEIGA .
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When will Germany overtake China as the second-largest economy? Don’t think in my lifetime. When will India replace Germany as the third-largest economy? Should be less than 5 years. India is every bit as authoritarian, protectionist, and oblivious to minority rights as.
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Escalating anti-espionage law, raiding Bain Capital’s Shanghai office, arresting Dong Yuyu, suspending foreigners’ Wind data access, and expanding the border control list, China is doubling down on eradicating foreign influences. I am aghast at how quickly things have.
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UK proposed new grouping of D10 （Democracy10). #D10 includes #G7 +India+#Australia +S.Korea. D10 together take up about 53% of global GDP. #China today is about 17% of global GDP.
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To be sure, China needs to allow the yuan to float more freely. The digital yuan won't be a standalone entity. The DCEP cannot become a global center currency, unless the yuan itself becomes one. Interview with @SPGlobalRatings @HarvardAsh
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Rumor says #Microsoft may be negotiating an asset swap deal with #Bytedance. What could it use to swap TikTok? . Yes, there is one. LinkedIn China！. LinkedIn is the only US social media legally allowed in China. #China may force Microsoft to sell it.
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If this #Melania photo dominated #G7Biarritz media blitz, wouldn’t you agree #G7 has become a complete joke?
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Chinese troops will receive a 40% pay raise in the 2nd half of the year, with border forces receiving a higher rate.
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China trained 200,000 foreign officials( and personnel) between 2013-2020. How these countries think are shaped by how their politicians are educated.
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Hardly can one consider 52.6% inflation to be good news, but it is. ，China’s pork price went up by 52.6% in August, coming down by 1/3 from 85.7% in July. It pulled inflation down to 2.4%.
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