My parents sent me this mug with the abstract of my first solo publication. Such a cool gift! #phdlife #AcademicTwitter @ElectoralStdies

We thank all the Members of Parliament who spoke with us, including the Hon. @TonyclementCPC, Hon. @beynate, Mr. @AMacGregor4CML, Hon. @ThomasMulcair, Hon. @BobRae48, and the Office of Private Members’ Business at the House of Commons. 🙏 . @HoCChamber @OurCommons.

Why is reciprocity so weak in 🇨🇦? . Strong party discipline limits side deals even in the more flexible world of PMBs. Using a rare real-world lottery we show: . Legislative support often reflects shared values, not traded favours. Not all politics is transactional.

So why second at all?. ✅ Shared party.✅ Common values.✅ Constituency interests. In other words: homophily, not horse-trading. Sometimes, MPs just support what they believe in, not because they expect payback.

Weak evidence for strategic seconding. MPs with better lottery spots are slightly more likely to second others, and there's almost no evidence that favours are returned in future parliaments.

We tested two things:. 🔁 Do MPs second each other within the same parliament?.🔄 Do they return favors across different parliaments?. The results?.

After a PMB is introduced, MPs can formally second it to show support. If reciprocity exists, we’d expect MPs with good lottery spots to second others hoping to get support back when it’s their turn.

In Canada, MPs are randomly assigned a spot in a lottery that determines who can introduce a private member’s bill (PMB). This lets us test:. · Who supports whom. · Whether support gets repaid. · If it’s loyalty, strategy or something else.

🚨NEW PAPER: Do legislators trade favours?. My latest with Donald Green uses a natural lottery in the Canadian Parliament to test whether MPs return favours when others support their proposals. Our findings may surprise you.👇. @PSRMJournal @UofT_PolSci

RT @YamilRVelez: Excited to share a new working paper with @SemraSevi and Don Green. We built a chatbot-based Voting Aid Application (VAA)….

What changed?. When party labels appeared on ballots, voters relied more on partisan cues than indiv. candidate familiarity. Result? The personal edge of incumbents disappeared. Party > Person. Link: @UofT_PolSci @CJPS_RCSP @spaikin @acoyne @davidakin.

FINDING #2: Party matters more than person. Incumbency advantage: .Liberals pre-1972: +16 pts.Conservatives pre-1972: +8 pts (not significant).Post-1972: Both parties? Advantage vanishes.

Using data from 1867 to 2021, and a RDD, I estimate the causal impact of incumbency on electoral success. FINDING #1: The incumbency advantage shrank dramatically. ✅ Before 1972: Incumbents had a 15-point edge. ❌ After 1972: Just 2 points, and no longer significant.

Before 1972, Canadian ballots showed only:.• Candidate names.• Occupations. No party labels. No shortcuts for voters. Then came a 1970 law: Starting in 1972, ballots began listing party affiliations alongside candidate names.

🚨NEW PAPER: Do incumbents really have an edge in elections?. Research says yes. But what happens when party labels are added to the ballot?. A natural experiment from Canadian elections tells an interesting story👇🧵

RT @UofT: From classroom to control room: #UofT students join Global News on election night 🗳️ .

RT @UofTArtSci: #UofTArtSci students joined @globalnews on election night, working behind the scenes in the newsroom to help call live resu….

RT @UofTArtSci: Just days after Canadians elected Liberal leader Mark Carney as Prime Minister, the mix of victories, upsets and expected o….

Behind the scenes on election night with my students at the Global News Decision Desk, calling the results into the wee hours! A newsroom experience they’ll never forget! Thanks, @davidakin & @globalnews! Cc @UofT_PolSci @UofT #cdnpoli #CanadaElections2025

Can AI reduce prejudice? 🇺🇸 In our new preprint, GPT-4o moved the needle on trans rights in a national U.S. study using morally tailored messages. The shift was real and short-lived. For more, read 👇 Comments and feedback are welcome.

RT @JohnHolbein1: Prejudice is common in modern societies. Reducing that prejudice is difficult to do, particularly in a cost-effective a….