An important new report from @jekavanagh that everyone interested in Russia-Ukraine should read. She is the first to have done the homework on what Ukraine needs for postwar deterrence and defense and how to source it.

This seems like a message from Mars. It is unrealistic to expect that Russia will agree to most (any?) of this. Just as it didn't make sense to negotiate w/o Ukrainians, it makes no sense to do so without Russians. https://t.co/IUm3jY4DNU

It doesn't seem credible to me to promise to do something in the future that you're not willing to do now.... even if Congress endorses it. This could have implications for the credibility of all US alliance commitments. https://t.co/MnFu5o3tCg

In the spring of 2022, Moscow and Kyiv sat down to outline a settlement that would have ended the war in Ukraine. @scharap and @DrRadchenko examine draft agreements exchanged between the two sides—and the lessons of these failed talks: https://t.co/99Zj8XjUSG

there is a need for a more nuanced approach to the issue that doesn't involve unilateral measures. 3/3

the issue is fundamentally political: a limitation on the military of a state that has been the victim of armed aggression, particularly one that is imposed by the aggressor, is just not going to fly. Unless that state is militarily defeated. And Ukraine has not been defeated.2/3

the conversation about the numbers for postwar Ukrainian armed forces is a bit divorced from reality. If there's actually a sustained cessation of hostilities, the active duty force is likely to shrink well below 600,000. The numbers are really not the issue 1/3

In the spring of 2022, Moscow and Kyiv sat down to outline a settlement that would have ended the war in Ukraine. @scharap and @DrRadchenko examine draft agreements exchanged between the two sides—and the lessons of these failed talks: https://t.co/99Zj8XjUSG

Just keep in mind that European leaders have had three years now… the war has been going on long enough for Europe to get its act together, but we have not done so. How will history judge us?

What Will It Really Take to End the War in Ukraine? https://t.co/kEe6JWB2FW via @NYTOpinion

Read @scharap and @DrRadchenko on an overlooked episode of the war in Ukraine—the intense diplomacy involving Moscow, Kyiv, and a host of other actors that could have resulted in a settlement just weeks after the war began: https://t.co/NIFVjRHpqs

Where was the European diplomatic initiative? You cannot hope to shape outcomes if you’re sitting on the sidelines. 2/2

The hand wringing from some across the pond about the 28 points—whatever one thinks of them—is a bit hard to stomach. They ceded the diplomatic field completely months ago and thus inevitably find themselves chasing after those who are still engaged. 1/2

putin now confirming that there have been no "official" bilateral negotiations on the 28 points.

The problem is that it is not a credible commitment. Why would Russia believe the US and allies will go to war next time if they’re not doing so now? And if the commitment were not upheld, the credibility of other US commitments globally would be undermined.

Ok, this is interesting

these timelines are... ambitious.

Not to be pedantic, but START expired in 2009.

Historically a plan usually results from a process.

This is not how things work, but one has to admire the optimism