Riley Mellen
@riley_mellen
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now: @nytimes visual investigations. then: @Dataminr . let's chat: riley.mellen @nytimes .com, Signal, DMs open.
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New: Officials and flight tracking data confirm unarmed U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones are flying over Gaza to help the hostage recovery effort.
Gift link to our article here:
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Israeli and US officials have pointed to a video to prove that a PIJ rocket misfired and struck al-Ahli Hospital on Oct 17. Our investigation found that their analysis was wrong.
It shows a projectile - unrelated to the blast - fired from Israel.
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Open-source evidence and shoe-leather reporting points to the Pentagon documents leaker: an airman in the Massachusetts Air National Guard. With
@malachybrowne
@trbrtc
@AricToler
@heytherehaley
@julianbarnes
@mschwirtz
@Tmgneff
+more
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New: Satellite images and aviation data indicate Russia may be preparing for -- or has recently conducted -- a test launch of the nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable Burevestnik missile. Gift link below.
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Important addition: By the IDF's own admission, there was a rocket incoming to Nahal Oz and Sa'ad at the moment of the Israeli projectile launch, strengthening the theory that we're seeing an Iron Dome missile in these videos, not a PIJ rocket.
Israeli and US officials have pointed to a video to prove that a PIJ rocket misfired and struck al-Ahli Hospital on Oct 17. Our investigation found that their analysis was wrong.
It shows a projectile - unrelated to the blast - fired from Israel.
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Amid the chaos and bloodshed of Oct. 7, one detail went unnoticed. A rocket struck Sdot Micha, a military base where Israel is believed to store some of its nuclear-capable missiles.
Gift link here:
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@ratemyskyperoom
It was my first interview! I'll take 7/10, not terrible, room (heh) to improve.
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New
@planet
(optical) and
@umbraspace
(SAR) imagery reveals details about the [possible] future Wagner camp in Belarus: hundreds of tents, cleared pavement, new entrances, security, support facilities, etc.
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The drones are operated by US special forces and, according to officials, are not supporting Israeli military operations on the ground. This is thought to be the first time that US drones have operated over Gaza.
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Their paths concentrate over southern Gaza, miles from the heaviest fighting in the north.
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@ameliairheart
and others first noticed these unidentified aircraft on
@flightradar24
on October 28, though officials said they've been flying since the days after Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7.
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While we still don’t know what caused the hospital explosion, it was not the object pointed out by multiple IDF tweets, in interviews with their military spokesmen, and in a US intelligence assessment. Here’s how we know.
Check your own footage before you accuse Israel.
18:59 - A rocket aimed at Israel misfired and exploded.
18:59 - A hospital was hit in Gaza.
You had one job.
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New Ukraine live blog post from
@heytherehaley
and I focusing on a weird phenomenon we noticed: the Kakhovka Dam in southern Ukraine is experiencing record *high* water levels....only two months after reaching record *lows*. Gift link:
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Four things tipped us off:
First, satellite imagery. Two very lucky
@planet
images on 9/20 show lots of activity (a trailer, several vehicles, weather cover retracted, etc.) at a launchpad previously used for Burevestnik tests. Add'l imagery on 9/28 also showed activity.
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The flights over Gaza -- several per day -- first appeared on
@flightradar24
on Saturday. They pop up over the central Mediterranean heading north, then turn east/southeast, avoiding Egyptian airspace, before flying circles over Gaza for roughly 3 hrs at a time.
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Third, Rosatom aircraft. At least two Rosatom SKIP aircraft were seen at Rogachevo airbase on Novaya Zemlya in August and September. These "flying laboratories'' were upgraded in 2016 to enable them to collect data from missile launches.
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In all likelihood, the aerial blast and hospital blasts are not connected. The projectile would need to cover over two miles of airspace in less than seven seconds *after* suffering a midair explosion. Possible, but incredibly unlikely.
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@ameliairheart
, who has been tracking these aircraft very closely, also noted that at least six (although by now maybe seven?) separate aircraft are involved in the operation.
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It is important to keep in mind that this missile is unproven and experts say it’s years from any operational deployment. However, we've seen clues in the last month or two that suggest Russia may be gearing up for another test.
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While the US has been giving military aid to Israel and has sent commandos to advise on hostage recovery efforts, these flights suggest a higher level of involvement.
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Dogged reporting by
@AricToler
,
@heytherehaley
,
@ajcardia
,
@NatalieReneau
,
@ckoettl
,
@julianbarnes
,
@malachybrowne
and many others. Clear-eyed editing by
@whitney_hurst
and
@markscheffler
.
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We synced several videos showing Gaza from the north, south, east, and west at the time of the blast. We also geolocated where each video was taken as well as the moment the projectile was first seen in each of them.
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And finally, Rivet Joints. There has been a bit of an uptick in RC-135W surveillance flights near Novaya Zemlya recently. Not proof positive, of course, but could be an indication that the US is keeping a closer eye on things up north.
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The video itself shows a projectile streaking into the air, flashing twice, and then detonating. Seven seconds later, the hospital explodes. But this projectile is not a PIJ rocket.
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Absolutely second what
@AricToler
says here. Major kudos to
@ArchieIrving2
for putting the Israeli interceptor theory out there:
Lastly: a shout-out to the first person to publicly lay out the case that this may have been an Israeli missile interceptor and not a Palestinian rocket:
@ArchieIrving2
. He had it on October 19th.
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The intersection of the sightlines between the camera and the projectile in each video points to where the projectile was launched from: well inside Israeli territory, near the Nahal Oz kibbutz, two miles away from the border with Gaza.
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However, Pankovo is incredibly cloudy. That’s one reason it's tough to tell if a test has already happened or is about to happen (or if the test is of the rocket motor or a subcomponent).
Either way, NYT's VI team will keep following this site closely.
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Second, Russia published a series of airspace warnings near Novaya Zemlya throughout September. Last week, they extended one to run through Oct 6. (the picture looks slightly different from
@The_Lookout_N
's map now, but this is a good viz of early Sept.)
The 4 ships without AIS, detected on a Sentinel-1 SAR pass this morning, has arrived within the past few days.
Here is the currently active NOTAMs and PRIP/NAVWARN.
As always with Burevestnik related activities, we might not get many hard answers in the open source domain.
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Note that a similar NOTAM was issued before an early 2019 Burevestnik test:
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Indeed, the intersection of these sightlines is directly over a well-known Iron Dome air defense missile site.
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We continue to investigate what caused the blast at the hospital.
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While the al-Jazeera video purports to show the aerial blast occurring almost directly over the hospital, our analysis also shows that the projectile launched from Israel actually detonated 2-3 miles from the hospital itself.
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Thousands of previously undisclosed chat messages paint a deeper, richer, more nuanced picture of Jack Teixeira, the airman accused of leaking secret US government documents.
Led by
@AricToler
,
@robinnyc7
,
@ishaan_jhavs
, and many more:
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In addition to
@ameliairheart
, many thanks to
@EricSchmittNYT
for running down these details quickly and comprehensively.
For more visual investigations from the New York Times, see our work, send us a tip, or sign up for the team's newsletter here:
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If you want to check out more of our work, I encourage you follow the team on Twitter/X here:
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We confirmed that at least three US-made MRAPs (M1224 MaxxPros) took part in the incursion into Russia's Belgorod region.
At least two of them were captured by Russian forces. Gift link:
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As with all VI articles, this was a team effort. Many thanks to
@julianbarnes
and
@ckoettl
for help reporting and Aaron Byrd for the clean, explanatory graphics.
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Satellite imagery from
@planet
in the last few days even shows water rushing over the top of the dam. While the dam itself is likely not at risk of failure, the seesawing water levels raise questions about Russian forces' management (or lack thereof) of the dam.
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Another fun detail is that the regional government lists buildings at the site as free for the taking for any keen investors....
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If you want to talk more about this site or have ideas for what we should look into, email me at riley.mellen
@nytimes
.com or text me securely on Signal at +1 646-926-2175
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And/or subscribe to receive updates by email whenever a new Visual Investigations piece comes out:
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@planet
imagery reveals recent construction activity -- possibly tents or other structures -- at an abandoned military base north of Asipovichy, Belarus. Gift link:
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Check out
@ameliairheart
‘s latest, comprehensive look into the U.S. Reapers flying to, from, and over Gaza. It’s worth your time!
As a follow-up to the work I did earlier this month with
@riley_mellen
on the Reapers flying over Gaza, I've put a lot of the research that I did into a blog post.
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Seeing Manhattan from the air is so cool because you get such a good sense of just how small it is compared to…everything else…around it
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A series of
@planet
and
@sentinel_hub
satellite images taken on Oct. 7 captures the growth of the fire and the race to stop it. Aircraft, retardant, firebreaks and more were all used to contain the flames. 10:30, 11:10, and 11:31 a.m. local time here:
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New: Putin says during a speech today that Russia "successfully" tested a Burevestnik/Skyfall nuclear-powered missile.
Still virtually no details about where or when the test(s) may have happened.
New: Satellite images and aviation data indicate Russia may be preparing for -- or has recently conducted -- a test launch of the nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable Burevestnik missile. Gift link below.
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Neither Hamas nor the I.D.F. responded to multiple requests for comment. However, Israel has since built berms around positions near the rocket strike site, ostensibly to protect from future attacks.
A good reminder that Israel is a nuclear power and Iranian missile duels could escalate rapidly: Israel is currently upgrading the protective infrastructure at its Arrow interceptor battery at Snot Micha Missile Base, where Israel is thought to keep their nuclear missiles.
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Best part of
@Amtrak
isn’t the ample legroom or smooth travel, it’s seeing what’s cooking at Electric Boat in Groton. Looks like today we’ve got a cheeky conning tower and a sub under wraps?
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@Toolman_77
Hi Tim, could you follow me back so we can DM? Have a quick question about what you're hearing here. Thanks!
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@patience_not
@sentdefender
@PlotACourse
@ameliairheart
@IntelWalrus
@EricSchmittNYT
Usually 24000 to 26000 ft
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@ishaan_jhavs
nails it here: this project fundamentally relied on parsing vast troves of text, image, video, and web data and extracting insights from that data.
This attempt to characterize the blustering, contradictory person behind the leaks was a crash-course for us on how to join, archive, organize, and glean info from Discord servers— their content as well as their members. A valuable new OSINT skill 👇
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(source for third screenshot: )
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@FakePhD_reveal
@AricToler
All the burned areas visible on the August 8 Sentinel image were where the fire department declared the incident contained (and then extinguished: ) earlier in the day. The fire resumed above the bypass just before 3pm, which you can see in the piece in the…
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In fact, there are some really interesting declassified U.S. documents on the debate over the Israeli nuclear weapons program available at the
@NSArchive
.
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Come work with the NYT Visual Investigations team in London! Job open now:
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@KnackBags
have many uses: holding gym clothes, weekend trips, carrying work gear while evacuating the office during a global pandemic. You know, the usual.
#onebaglife
#WorkFromHome
#coronavirus
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It quickly sparked a fire that grew to over 40 acres, and burned near a Jericho missile storage site and an advanced radar system.
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Pictures, videos, and witnesses from across Lahaina catalogued the incredibly rapid progress of the wildfire that devastated the town, from the first, harrowing moments to the terrifying conclusion.
Non-paywalled link here:
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@PentagonPresSec
publicly confirms our reporting from last night that unarmed US drones are flying missions over Gaza in support of hostage recovery efforts.
New: Officials and flight tracking data confirm unarmed U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones are flying over Gaza to help the hostage recovery effort.
Gift link to our article here:
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But back to the day of the strike. Throughout the morning, rocket sirens near the base warned again and again of incoming fire.
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And while we don’t know if those rockets were intercepted, we do know that a rocket, most likely fired by Hamas, landed in a small valley at the base around 10 a.m.
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Also important to note that Israel’s weapons are likely stored partly disassembled, so it’s doubtful that any warheads themselves were actually in danger during the Sdot Micha strike.
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And if you have other tips, suggestions, things we should look into or just want to talk nuclear news, email me at riley.mellen
@nytimes
.com or Signal at +1 6469262175.
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Real question is how will airstrikes affect regional powers like Capt Hook's Never Land or The Jungle Book's Jungle?
30% of Republican primary voters nationally say they support bombing Agrabah. Agrabah is the country from Aladdin.
#NotTheOnion
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One question we weren’t able to answer is why the base was hit: Was it hit because it stores some of Israel’s strategic weapons? Or is it just a large military target in the middle of the country?
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From the moment I saw this picture, I knew there was something interesting about it....
In a fourth photo,
@igorlachenkov
is standing with Kyrylo Budanov, head of GUR. In his hands, a gift from Budanov: a painted artillery shell showing a drone dropping two bombs of the Kremlin (with striking resemblance to the infamous images from the May 3 attack).
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@kirstendewar
@malachybrowne
@LOActualControl
@Real_DMonocky
Thanks
@kirstendewar
! Will definitely get in touch 😎
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You can also see the growth of the Sdot Micha base, which factored into these high-level discussions, on
@NASA_Landsat
satellite imagery accessible on
@sentinel_hub
. Here is one of the earliest images, from Dec. 1972.
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Important to note that Israel doesn’t acknowledge it possesses nuclear weapons. But numerous sources — including the U.S. government and an Israeli whistleblower — all concur that the country possesses at least a small number of nuclear warheads.
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For our previous reporting on this site, see 👇
@planet
imagery reveals recent construction activity -- possibly tents or other structures -- at an abandoned military base north of Asipovichy, Belarus. Gift link:
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Either way, the attack shows that the scope of Oct. 7 may have been greater than previously known.
@START_UMD
has a useful database showing previous attacks on nuclear assets — they’re rare.
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