Rex Woodbury
@rex_woodbury
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Building @DaybreakVCP . Prev @IndexVentures . Writing about how technology & people intersect at . Investing at Pre-Seed, Seed.
New York, NY
Joined July 2019
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New firm, new website ✅
Daybreak is an early-stage, thesis-driven venture capital firm.
We invest ~$1M at Pre-Seed/Seed in internet, software, & AI applications with the potential for viral adoption. If you're building, send us a note.
New site here:
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I honestly think in 30 years society will look at alcohol like we look at tobacco today. You can already see it starting—Gen Z consumes 20% less alcohol than Millennials did at the same age.
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This is Kat Norton, better known as Miss Excel. She has over a million followers on TikTok and Instagram, where she markets her Excel courses.
She has 0 employees and makes up to $100,000 a day. When we think of the future of work, it might look something like Miss Excel 👇
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Most people don't realize the scale of video games:
Hogwarts Legacy just grossed $850M in its first two weeks. Biggest launch ever for Warner Bros Games.
By comparison, Warner Bros's biggest *movie* ever, the last Harry Potter movie, brought in $295M in its first two weeks.
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Today I learned that the iPhone caused chewing gum sales to plummet. People became distracted on their phones in grocery store checkout lines and made fewer impulse purchases.
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More celebrity brands are failing.
Adidas is set to lose $200M on Beyoncé’s Ivy Park this year. That's on top of a $1.3B loss from Yeezy.
What went wrong? In order to work, a celeb brand needs to get three things right:
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Surprising stat from Disney’s earnings call: over 50% of Disney+ subscribers are adults without kids
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Teens who use Facebook (2015): 71%
Teens who use Facebook (2022): 32%
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Teens who meet up with their friends 'almost every day' is down from 50% in the 90s to 25% today.
Falls off a cliff around 2010, alongside the rise of smartphones and social media.
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I have a friend who looks up an obscure topic online before dinner parties, reads the Wikipedia entry, then subtly guides the conversation toward that topic.
People are blown away by how knowledgeable he is.
It's simultaneously brilliant and horrifying to watch.
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This is Miko. She's a virtual streamer who is controlled by a real-life woman known only as The Technician.
The Technician uses the Unreal Engine and a $30,000 motion-capture suit to create Miko.
Thread 👇
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You can learn a lot about the state of the U.S. through this chart.
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AirPods do more in revenue than Spotify, Twitter, & Snap *combined*
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1) Authentic to the celebrity / creator
Ivy Park sales fell 50% in 2022. Adidas projected $250M, but the brand only brought in $40M. Ouch
Beyoncé has an aspirational, aloof persona that's at odds with Ivy Park’s athleisure style. IMO she should have created a luxury brand.
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I will never understand why a month with 28 days has the same rent as a month with 31 days 🧐
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1/ Costco has always fascinated me.
Costco makes essentially $0 in profit from product sales, since it basically sells goods at cost. Instead, it charges a membership fee that is almost 100% margin.
Here are some of my favorite slides from a great overview by
@minesafety
👇
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2) Have a genuine net-new insight
The two best case studies for celebrity brands are Fenty and SKIMS. Both had a unique insight:
• Fenty: Make-up should come in more shades for people of color
• SKIMS: Shapewear is outerwear
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Is there a more seasonal business than Spirit? Pulls in ~$700M annually, nearly all in October.
The business model is fascinating:
• Pop-up locations mid-July to mid-November
• 1,400 locations, nearly as many as Target (1,900)
• Thousands of temp workers
More a real estate…
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Someone on Reddit made an Adidas commercial on Midjourney during their coffee break.
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The most powerful trend in tech right now: "The TikTokization of Everything"
How it's reshaping literally every industry:
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One of my favorite consumer tech frameworks—"Every consumer company is built on one of the Seven Deadly Sins."
• Instagram = Envy
• Tinder = Lust
• DoorDash = Gluttony
And so on. Today, EPIK is the No. 1 app in the App Store—and raking in $250K a day.
EPIK is going viral…
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3) Move beyond the celeb figurehead
The best brands elevate themselves beyond one person.
SKIMS marketing now rarely features Kim; they brilliantly tapped Mia & Lucia from White Lotus for their Valentine's campaign, right when the two women were embedded in the zeitgeist 🤌
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A virtual Gucci bag in Roblox sold for 350,000 Robux, or about $4,100.
The "real world" version of the purse costs $3,400.
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Fenty and SKIMS injected new energy into stale categories by introducing high-quality products.
People can sniff out inauthenticity and low effort. In the long run, the best products still win.
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Today, at 3:22pm, my life changed forever when I learned that the husband in Everything Everywhere All At Once is played by the same actor as Shorty in Indiana Jones Temple of Doom—in his first movie role in 37 years
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In 2012, 11 companies became unicorns.
In 2020, 175 companies became unicorns.
So far in 2021—seven months in—291 companies have become unicorns.
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Rihanna fixing her Fenty make-up during the halftime show is the best commercial in this entire Super Bowl
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The danger facing celebrity brands is to be too closely associated with the celebrity. Kylie Cosmetics saw sales fall ~50% when Kylie took a break from posting to Instagram during her pregnancy.
And Adidas will lose $1.3 billion from Yeezy after Kanye West’s self-destruction.
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This prediction of a 3.5 day workweek reminds me of Keynes's 1930 prediction that his grandkids would have a 15-hour workweek.
What Keynes missed then (and what Jaime Dimon misses now) is that work is less a product of technology and more a product of *culture*.
AI will no…
Jamie Dimon’s monologue on our AI future:
- 3.5 day workweeks
- our kids will live to 100 and not have cancer
- jobs will be eliminated but workers redeployed
- “take a deep breath”
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The reason that gaming is so much bigger than other media categories isn't because there are more gamers than there are music listeners. It's a difference in *business model*
This is why all creative industries will move to microtransactions & virtual currencies.
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1/ This year, National Coming Out Day happens to fall on my mom's birthday. My mom died when I was one, 19 years before I would come out. She never had the chance to learn that her son is gay. But a few weeks after I came out, I got a letter from a stranger.
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I would crown Duolingo the savviest brand on TikTok.
In a world of rising CACs, it's become more important for companies to find ways to manufacture virality.
No one is better at it than Duolingo:
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1/ Bilibili is one of the most fascinating startups in China. What other company acquires new users by having 1,500 drones form a giant QR code in the Shanghai sky?
Here's what makes Bilibili so innovative 👇
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1/ I just read Cash App's investor day presentation, and I'm convinced it's one of the most underrated businesses out there:
• 80M users
• $600M in Q1 gross profit
• Top finance app 5 years running
Cash App exploded by bringing culture to finance 👇
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I was today years old when I learned there are only 25 blimps in the entire world. Just 25.
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TikTok’s best feature is its passivity. It’s exhausting picking something to watch on Netflix, but it’s easy to plop down on the couch, turn your brain off, and Tok for 30 minutes
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In the future, instead of measuring a creator's clout based on her Instagram following, we'll point to her market cap.
Tokens allow us to measure both breadth *and* depth of a creator's community. Examples 👇
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One of the funnier ripple effects of the AI boom: the British territory of Anguilla now makes $3M a month off purchases of the .ai domain
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Crazy stat: Taylor Swift’s Eras tour will generate $5B for the US economy—more than the GDP of 50 countries.
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New games and virtual worlds are building new digital economies. But what we don't talk about enough is just how complex and nuanced these economies are.
Take Star Atlas, a game built on Solana. Here's how its digital economy works 👇
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1/ In 1957, Walt Disney drew his company's strategy (sketch below). It centered around content: good content fueled parks, merchandising, film & TV etc, all powering Disney's flywheel.
Disney has stuck to this strategy for 64 years, while also evolving to fit a changing world 👇
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For the first time, Netflix & YouTube will take in same amount of revenue this year: $30B
Two very different approaches to $30B:
• Netflix: 200M paying subs, produces its own content ($17B content budget), low margins
• YouTube: 2B users, users make the content, high margins
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Get yourself a dad who responds to your newsletter every single week, without fail 🥹
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Every time I read about a Michelin Star restaurant I'm reminded how Michelin, a tire company, created Michelin Stars to give people a reason to get in their cars, drive somewhere, and wear down their tires. Brilliant 🤌
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It's hard to create an enduring brand—most celebrity brands will fade away.
The ones raking in hundreds of millions or even billions in revenue (Fenty is reportedly north of $1B) are the exceptions.
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Taylor Swift's Eras tour is set to make her the highest-grossing female artist of all time.
I've been thinking a lot about Taylor Swift as a businesswoman.
Let me geek out for a minute about Swift and what we can learn from her:
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Highest-grossing IP in history—curious what's not on this list that will be in 10 years
1. Pokemon $110B
2. Hello Kitty $89B
3. Mickey Mouse $83B
4. Winnie the Pooh $81B
5. Star Wars $70B
6. Mario $48B
7. Disney Princess $46B
8. Anpanman $45B
9. Marvel $38B
10. Harry Potter $33B
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Life update: I'm moving back to New York! 🎉🗽
My partner and I are moving this month (!) and I'll be helping to launch Index New York.
I moved to California from NYC 5 years ago, and I'll miss the West Coast. But I'm excited to head home. If you're in NYC, see you this summer!
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She estimates her expenses at ~$500 per month.
Her stack includes:
• Her iPhone
•
@thinkific
to list her courses
•
@stripe
for payment processing
•
@WeVideo
for video editing
That's about it.
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Spotify launched in the US 10 years ago this month. Here's my best take at how economics flow from a $9.99 monthly subscription.
Three takeaways:
1) Spotify only keeps ~33%,
2) Artists and songwriters don't get much,
3) Music is really, really complicated.
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During the pandemic, unemployment in the Philippines hit 40%.
Thousands of Filipinos without jobs—like Howard, pictured here—turned to blockchain-based online games as a way to make money.
Here's how it happened 👇
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Miss Excel is ambitious: she says she wants to grow her business to million-dollar months and to expand into new areas. Then, she wants to teach other people how to be a creator.
You can listen to more of her story in this great podcast.
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I'm more bullish on celebrities & creators as *curators*—tastemakers that better monetize their influence with product recommendations.
New companies like Flagship let creators be retailers, curating favorite products in their own boutiques.
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Microeconomics have higher ROI for brands. This is a made-up example, but directionally accurate. Smaller influencers have higher engagement rates and are more economical for a campaign.
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There are a lot of buzzwords in tech right now—creator, community, Web3, NFTs, metaverse.
The thing is, they all connect. They're intersecting & building on each other to forge the next generation of the internet.
Here's how I think everything connects 👇👇👇
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To back up, what is it that Miss Excel is doing exactly?
She makes TikToks sharing Excel tips. She'll use "Drop It Like It's Hot" to explain a dropdown menu, or Doja Cat's "Best Friends" to explain why Index + Match are bffs.
She's fun, energetic, and actually really helpful.
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1/ Cash App overtook Venmo by embedding itself in culture and by targeting *all* of America, not just NYC, SF, and LA.
Over 200 hip-hop artists have name-dropped Cash App in their songs—the app has captured the zeitgeist in a way that Venmo hasn't been able to.
👇👇👇👇👇👇
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Who is behind Cash App’s marketing? Would love to chat with them. Feels like an underrated & best-in-class team that continues to redefine marketing. DM me 👀
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Not a perfect comparison since the box office numbers are domestic (can't find day-by-day numbers for worldwide gross), but it makes the point.
Hogwarts Legacy numbers would also be much higher if it were available on Playstation 4, Xbox One, & Nintendo Switch, which it's not.
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Stunning visual—public transit in America
Two thoughts:
1) Glad to live in NYC
2) Curious how a graphic of Europe compares
h/t
@TurnerNovak
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This is a digital house that sold for $512,000.
The artist Krista Kim made the house, which is called Mars House, on an iPad last spring.
She says the house "was designed to be visited and enjoyed in the metaverse" and will host its first metaverse wedding in June.
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The most important trend of our generation is the disaggregation of work.
In 2027, America will become a majority freelance economy for the first time.
👇
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Here’s an example of her content 🔥
Follow her on TikTok at @ miss.excel and on Insta at @ miss.excel. Also she’s on Twitter too!
@themissexcel
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Peloton is a content studio in disguise:
• Scripts for shows are due 36 hours before showtime
• The company once said it wants to be “a media company akin to Netflix”
• Peloton instructors are signed with top agencies like UTA and CAA
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Disney's copyright on Mickey Mouse expires at the end of this year.
Disney has a long history of defending this copyright—so much so that America's Copyright Term Extension Act is nicknamed The Mickey Mouse Protection Act.
1928: Walt Disney creates Mickey Mouse with 56 years…
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Americans started 4.4 million businesses in 2020, +24% from 2019 and the biggest annual increase in history.
Most of those are "microbusinesses", small businesses with <10 employees and often solopreneurs & freelancers.
The 2020s might be the most entrepreneurial decade ever.
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This is Megan Leeds, better known as MeganPlays.
In 2018, Megan was making $400/month posting YouTube videos of herself gaming.
Today, she takes in millions of dollars a year, has 3.6 million subscribers, & launched a game studio that will bring in $8 million this year.
👇👇👇
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5/ His words have brought me so much solace over the years: I know my mom would have loved me for who I am. And most of all, I'm struck by her compassion and empathy. Every day, I'm proud to be her son.
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I think
@reidhoffman
was the first to introduce the Seven Deadly Sins framework, back in 2011. (Btw, LinkedIn, Reid's company, is Pride.)
Here's a piece I wrote last year refreshing the framework for 2022 startups:
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I honestly think 50% of society's problems would go away if cities were designed for people instead of for cars.
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There are now more tech jobs in NYC than Wall Street jobs 👀
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The ROI on Disney’s $4B Marvel acquisition is stunning. $20B in box office already, 11 more films upcoming, 12 planned series on Disney+. Not to mention the value brought to parks, merchandise, etc.
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Games like Hogwarts Legacy also often have higher ARPU (they cost more than a movie ticket) and a less broad reach. Legacy has sold 12M units, whereas probably 50M+ people saw Deathly Hallows in theater.
One reason gaming is so big is because of depth of monetization.
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This has to be one of the most depressing charts to see for any American.
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I'm consistently fascinated by how we can't predict the trickle-down effects of innovation. One example:
Chewing gum sales plummeted after the release of the iPhone. People became distracted on their phones in grocery store checkout lines and made fewer impulse purchases.
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“We see Axie Infinity not just as a game but as a fully functional digital economy that is starting to take on these characteristics of a nation.” -
@Jihoz_Axie
on
@RealVision
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New firm, new website ✅
Daybreak is officially open for business. Check out our site here:
At
@DaybreakVCP
we invest $500K-1M at Pre-Seed & Seed—often as the first partner to founders. If you're building something, no matter how early, send us a note.
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Why your logo matters: Google search interest for "QC shoes" alongside the rise of On Running shoes
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Miko is showing that the future of the creator economy is interactive, raw, engaging. It blends cutting-edge tech with old-fashioned creativity.
Miko is defining the future of media.
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YouTube is catching up to Netflix, growing revenue 84% year-over-year compared to Netflix's 19%.
Both will do ~$30B in revenue this year. The difference: Netflix will spend $17B on content and YouTube relies on its users for content.
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Says The Technician:
"My income tripled the day I put in this interaction where the audience could kill me. When I added the nuke and the mute—where the audience could mute me for 30 seconds—I was able to afford my rent and pay off my debt slowly.”
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Surprising stat: over 25% of Airbnb bookings are for stays 28 days or longer. In NYC, it's 60%+.
Airbnb could become the new landlord for a more nomadic, remote work world.
h/t
@thefutureparty
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“Most people die at 25 and aren’t buried until they’re 75.” - Benjamin Franklin
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Li Jiaqi, known as "The Lipstick King" in China, sold $1.7 billion of product during a 12-hour livestream on Wednesday 🤯 250 million people tuned in.
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Life update: today is my first day at
@IndexVentures
! I’m thrilled to be joining this incredible team and can’t wait for what’s ahead 🤩
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Miss Excel embodies the future of work: self-realized, flexible, digitally-native.
She says: "I came into this because I wanted to create the life I wanted for myself. I wanted freedom: financial freedom & geographic freedom. I wanted to do what lights me up every day."
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One of the most underrated turnaround stories: Crocs
In 2021—19 years into the company's life—revenue grew 67% (!) to $2.3 billion. Profit margins improved from 22% to 31%.
From what I've read about it, the Crocs turnaround seems to come down to 3 changes the company made:
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In 1899, a group of French and German artists drew illustrations of what they thought the world would look like in 2000.
In this drawing, they basically predicted FaceTime.
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In January 2019, Lil Nas X was a college dropout sleeping on his sister's floor, with a negative balance in his bank account.
5 months later, he'd broken Mariah Carey's record for most consecutive weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100.
Here's how he did it 👇
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My mom passed away 25 years ago. I think of her often this time of year & keep this photo as the background on my phone.
It’s a good reminder that if I can just try to be like her, then I’m doing okay ☺️❤️
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Marvel's struggles offer a good lesson for companies:
Scaling too fast can degrade quality and alienate your core customers.
Starting around 2020, Marvel aggressively ramped up production on films and TV shows. In 2021 alone, Marvel put out 5 Disney+ shows and 4 feature films.…
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She created her "Miss Excel" persona and started posting on TikTok daily. Her 4th video hit 100,000 views.
On day 6, she ordered a green screen and ring light to set up in her childhood bedroom.
By week 3, one of her videos hit 3.6M views and she had 100K followers.
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Crazy stat: 1 in 3 new stores opening in the U.S. is a Dollar General
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