Matt A. Barreto 🇵🇪 ⚽️
@realMABarreto
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🇵🇪⚽️ Co-founder @BSPresearch Profe at @UCLAccstudies @polisciUCLA @UCLALatino @ucla_vrp , Sr advisor @BuildingBack_US formerly @JoeBiden RT or ❤️ ≠ endorsement
Los Angeles, CA
Joined November 2015
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Pinned Tweet
OK, now let's look at the Latino sample, which they claim is 46-40 Trump. This does not match ANY actual bilingual large-n polling of Latinos. ZERO CHANCE. Are people frustrated? Yes. Is Trump +6. ZERO CHANCE. But let's look at their brilliant Latino methodology: 97% English
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This is quite possibly, the greatest published article ever. "We show that LaTeX users were slower than Word users, wrote less text in the same amount of time, and produced more typesetting, orthographical, grammatical, and formatting errors"
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New poll out today from
@NBCNews
and don't expect
@SteveKornacki
to criticize the sample of his employer, so let me point out some serious sample concerns in this poll:
72% white ('20 was 67%)
+13 conservative ideology
Only 30% self-ID as Dem
New NBC News poll (1/26-30)
General Election
Donald Trump 47% (+1 since Nov.)
Joe Biden 42% (-2 since Nov.)
—
Biden Job Performance
Approve 37%
Disapprove 60%
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@JoshuaADouglas
However it is true that Trump can resign and leave office at any time he likes. So there's that
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BREAKING: Red wave hit a Brown Firewall 🗳👨🏾👧🏾
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🚨 TEXAS ELECTION DATA: If reporters actually cared about data and not just trying to sensationalize headlines for clicks -- BREAKING: GOP SEES MAJOR DROP IN LATINO SUPPORT 20-to-22 IN RIO GRANDE VALLEY / SO TX
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By a 10-point margin, Texans support Biden approach to border over Abbott.
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Q from my 9-year old as I'm discussing Trump, Mueller, Cohen, Ryan:
9-yo: If all the people in the WH get fired will
@HillaryClinton
be president?
Me: No
9-yo: What if all the Republicans get fired or quit? Then will Hillary be president?
Me: 🤔
9-yo: well I have this in case:
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Dear Neil Gorsuch (A Thread): Wrong! You DO have regression analysis identifying the causal effect of adding a citizenship question to the census. I know because I wrote the expert report and spent 12 hours on the stand explaining it. 3 Federal Courts believed me and not you.
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New
@CBSNews
poll with Biden leading by 20 points among Florida Latino voters. More evidence that the NBC and Quinnipiac polls were garbage. This is now 3 public polls with Biden leading by around 20 points among FL Latinos. We are working hard nonstop to earn the Latino vote
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THANK YOU
@JulianCastro
for everything you did for our community to get us here today. Your presidential campaign was an inspiration to everyone
#Adi
ósTrump
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The so-called "mainstream" polls are under-sampling people of color and this is keeping
@CoryBooker
&
@JulianCastro
out of the debates. Something I wrote at the
@washingtonpost
@monkeycageblog
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Men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie 📈📊 Pennsylvania data:
290,000 total Latino votes cast
Latino vote for Biden 200,100
Latino vote for Trump 84,100
Latino net contribution to Biden: 116,000
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President spent time with Supreme Court Justice nominee Barrett, is she going to quarantine for two weeks? How does this impact Senate hearings?
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For the first time tonight, the top 15 counties in TX are now reporting majority Dem vote 50.4% to 49.6%. That is important because in 2014 these exact same 15 counties were 35.5% Dem to 64.5% Rep. That's a net swing of +30 D.
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The Hispanic vote in Florida is closing strong for Biden while Trump has slipped. Final NYT/Siena poll finds Biden +22 w/ Latinos, critical to statewide margin. But this is a poll. We need a final big push on election day to make this a reality. Our FL team is THE BEST!
#VOTE
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The entire
@NFL
should be ashamed and embarrassed.
@Kaepernick7
has been preaching truth about racial injustice and police brutality against black people and he gets fired.
@nfl
absolutely shameful.
#ImWithKap
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Proud to welcome
@JulianCastro
to
@UCLAccstudies
to speak to my Chicano Studies 10B class cc:
@lasocialscience
@darnell_hunt
@UCLAlatino
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Outside of Florida, the Latino vote was 2-to-1 Democrat, or better in places like PA. If you are looking for data on Latino voters, the 2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll is the most accurate exit poll with over 5,200 Latino interviews nationwide plus in-depth in 11 states.
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Somebody just said "Well thank God for Black people in Milwaukee and Detroit, and ¡gracias a Dios! for Mexican-Americans in Phoenix - they saved our country plain and simple"
Actually, that was me who just said that.....
#BlackVote
#LatinoVote
#Vote
#BidenHarris2020
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Buckle up! New NYT/Sienna📊out today and if you're scoring at home, their polling has not matched real elections with real voters:
(1) Among Dems, Phillips is at 12%, his avg in 3 real primaries is 1.5; (2) Poll is +13 conservative; (3) The Latino sample is 97% English; y mas...
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Biden maintains *YUGE* advantage with younger Latina/os age 18-39 leading 71 to 16 (+55) in the latest
@WSJ
@NBCUTelemundo
Latino oversample (n=300) via
@SuzGamboa
w comments from
@aileen_cardona
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There was this "finding" today in the
@politico
/
@MorningConsult
poll that 51% Americans support the ICE raids - this is a very misleading finding for a couple of important reasons, a couple of thoughts here why 1/
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It is polling malpractice for
@QuinnipiacPoll
to report Latino results on a completely non-representative sample of 95 people, 7 of which were in Spanish. It is actually shameful not malpractice, they should be embarrassed
I asked Quinnipiac about that intriguing poll data on Hispanics, in which 44% said Trump is not racist. Here's scoop: They surveyed 95 registered Hispanic voters. 7 of the surveys were in Spanish.
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In the infamous Zapata County, GOP candidates for Governor COMBINED to receive 101 votes while Democrats combined to receive 2,517 votes. I'm sure NYT will write 2-page story about this...
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To everyone who thinks Hispanic men have abandoned the Democratic Party. You Are Wrong. 1) Gender gap has existed for decades, it is not "new"; 2) While Latinas are amazing, Latino men are +36 for Biden in Texas. But LOOK AT WHITE VOTERS. Reporters and so-called allies alike....
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You're probably wondering what to make of the big outlier poll today from ABC-WaPo, here's why you should probably just ignore it and move on.... TLDR (a) they were off by 16 points in '20; (b) it is NOT a sample of voters; (c) it is NOT weighted to a voter profile
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@BBarrouquere
It's very diverse. There are white guys with beards, some without. Some tall white guys, some short. Also one white lady! Do not let the camo confuse you, all white guys do not look alike!
#RichmondWhiteSupremacy
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El Paso is 81% Latino. 81% of Latino reg voters support universal background checks on ALL gun purchases according to
@LatinoDecisions
/
@UniNoticias
June 2019 poll. US SENATE GET OFF YOUR LAZY ASS AND DO SOMETHING!!
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The poll is WRONG about Dem vote intention. They have Dean Phillips at 12%. There have been 3 DNC sanctioned primaries and Phillips vote:
South Carolina - 1.7%
Nevada - 0.0%
Michigan - 2.7%
So what people are *telling* the NYT/Sienna does not square with how they are VOTING.
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Large lead among Latino voters propelling
@JoeBiden
to statewide lead in key battleground states, discussed brand new
@VoterCenter
/
@votolatino
poll with
@morningmika
@MSNBC
@Morning_Joe
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These are NOT protesters - this is an ATTEMPTED COUP. Do not refer to this as protest. Our democracy is at risk.
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The Latino vote in
#IowaCaucus
cities to watch:
Columbus City - 65%
Conesville - 64%
Chelsea - 50% Latino
Denison - 48% Latino
West Liberty - 44% Latino
Fredonia - 41% Latino
Storm Lake - 38% Latino
Perry - 36% Latino
Vail - 35% Latino
Tama - 32% Latino
Marshalltown - 30% Latino
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More data that doesn't fit the freak-out narrative of 6 weeks ago -- BIDEN NOW +27 WITH HISPANICS IN FLORIDA. Obama won 60% of the Latino vote in 2012 and won the state.
@CBSNews
has Biden at 62% with Latinos today.
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Biden-Harris campaign HISTORIC investment of over $125M in Latino outreach was key to winning AZ, NV, PA, WI, GA. Amazing team of
@CristobalJAlex
@JulieR2019
@pilitobar87
@JorgeNeri_
@NarriolaDC
@JenMolina_v
@AdrianSaenz
@jimenezlmp
@LaBregaMaysonet
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According to the 2018 Census, there were 203,000 Latino eligible voters in Michigan. In 2020 it will grow by another 25k. Michigan was decided by less than 11,000 votes
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César Chávez believed in medicine and encouraged people to get vaccinated against measles and rubella in the 60s. He spent his life advocating for access to health care for workers. You are an anti-vax conspiracy theorist with no policy agenda to help our community. Hard pass.
It was an honor to gather in Los Angeles last month on César Chávez Day to celebrate Chávez’s legacy as a civil rights and labor activist. I was lucky to know César well and will forever be inspired by his legendary efforts and victories in the fight for farmworkers’ and voters’
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If the original question had been "Do you support immigration raids targeting people who have lived and worked in the U.S. for years and not committed any crimes, except they are undocumented...." then a clear majority would have OPPOSED the ICE Raids. This is polling 101 7/end
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Just when you thought quarantine was boring -- Fan mail! (with my reply)
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In support of Dr. Biden, if you have a doctorate, add Dr. to your bio, you ARE a REAL DOCTOR just like Dr. Biden and the entire
@WSJ
can go back to sexist Leave it to Beaver reruns
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Yuma County AZ on the border came in heavy for Biden, at 74% from Latinos, via
@UCLAlatino
@roddominguezv
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YOUNG, SCRAPPY & HUNGRY! Clarita is loving the
@latinovictoryus
@HamiltonMusical
+ Schuyler sisters with
@Lin_Manuel
@soledadobrien
and the amazing women of Hamilton!
#Work
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This graph explains why Biden is gaining among Latino voters - Trump does not have a health care plan. Health care is a top issue to Latinos. By a 48-point margin, Latinos trust Biden to increase access to affordable health care.
#vote
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My dad was drafted into the Vietnam war and went and fought. He was not a US citizen. He did not complain about bone spurs. He served his tour as he was called upon. He later became a US citizen and, along with thousands of other Vietnam Veterans is ready to vote
#BidenHarris2020
NEW,
@JenGriffinFNC
confirms former Trump admin official confirms details in The Atlantic story, including quotes about veterans. When the President spoke about the Vietnam War he said, “It was a stupid war. Anyone who went was a sucker.”
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@CourierNewsroom
And according to final Early Vote data Latino vote is at 151% of where it stood in 2018, another good sign for a Blue Wisconsin
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🚨Lowridin' with Biden🚨 Print out your sign, grab your '68 Impala and your mask 😷 and hit the streets for
@JoeBiden
#BidenHarris2020
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You're probably wondering about how to interpret all the new Dem primary preference polls out there. Please look under the hood and ask about the composition of their samples, this is critical! A THREAD on the "mainstream" polling 1/4
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Gwinnett County, Georgia is mandated by Section 203 of the Voting Rights Act to provide Spanish election materials because it has such as large population of Spanish-speaking U.S. citizen voters. Latinos in Georgia came through big for Biden! via
@UCLAlatino
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This is a great answer by
@JulianCastro
to this idiotic question.
Is the policy of providing health insurance to unauthorized immigrants "one that can win for a general election?"
@JulianCastro
, supporter of that policy, responds: "Is the policy of threatening nuclear war to another country on Twitter a policy that can win a general election?"
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If Biden matches Obama 2012 Latino performance (71-27, +44) the sheer growth in Latino voters means a NET advantage of 1.6 MILLION votes nationally, because there will be an est. 3.6M additional Latino votes cast in 2020 over 2012. We are working hard to earn every Latino vote!
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BREAKING -- Trump is highly contagious, took his mask OFF, filming a propaganda video inside WH, there are about a dozen staff around, including photographers very close to him. He took mask off, is walking around and has not put mask on, going on about 5 minutes with no mask....
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We have seen the NYT try to play the "DEMS ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC" card before, take a look at their March 2020 story claiming Trump voters had a big enthusiasm advantage. Maybe in March, pero not in Nov 2020 when Biden had RECORD turnout, due to the campaign putting in the work
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This is a really big deal, AZ was a massive Latino turnout and vote in favor of Biden!
This shouldn’t get lost: organizers in Arizona delivered 75% of the Latino vote to Biden (74% Yuma, 78% Maricopa, 81% Pima). Florida is not the whole narrative here.
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RBG with a powerful dissent today in the Wisconsin absentee voting decision "Either they will have to brave the polls, endangering their own and others' safety. Or they will lose their right to vote, through no fault of their own."
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This is a poll tax. This is unconstitutional. 24th Amd abolished poll taxes. Harper v. Virginia (1966) affirmed poll taxes unconstitutional under 14th Amd
Breaking: Florida senate passes bill requiring those with past felony convictions to pay all restitution, fines & fees before becoming eligible to vote. This is modern day poll tax undermining historic ballot initiative that could block over 500,000 people from the ballot box
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🚨New CNN poll:
If the election were held today, would you vote for..... THE ELECTION IS NOT BEING HELD TODAY, SO DO NOT PUT A LOT OR ANY WEIGHT ON THIS SCENARIO 11 MONTHS OUT.
Why? A couple simple but important reasons:
1/6
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Following his great speech at the LVP summit Prez candidate
@JulianCastro
stops to sign quick autograph from his biggest fan, and my 9-yo daughter Clarita! Gracias! 👊🏽🙏🏽❤ You are inspiring the next generation of Latinas!
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Last update for tonight on TX top 15 counties, and compared to 2014, Dems have over doubled votes in 2018 and turned 29-point deficit in 14 into a 1-point advantage in 18. AND still 380+ precincts in Dallas County outstanding will add around 26k more Dem votes there.
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🚨📉 Latest early vote numbers now show Latino early vote has passed 8.0M and may be on track for over 16M total votes cast if Eday turnout is as big as we think. AVEV data via
@NALEO
@Catalist_US
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Very proud of our outstanding
@UCLA_REP
grad student
@ae_gutierrez_
for a very successful prospectus defense, and is now ABD. Very important dissertation on perceived threat, group consciousness & participation. Thanks to
@frasureyokley
@GarySegura
@EfrenPoliPsy
#DavidSears
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The only way to describe this is racism. This woman was born in Arizona, she is a US citizen! She already won this exact same lawsuit challenging her citizenship a few years ago. Now Republicans continue to call her a non-citizen! Disgusting
Raquel Terán, elected Tuesday to Arizona's legislature, vowed to fight an attempt to keep her from taking office through a challenge of her U.S. citizenship.
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Read this oped in
@washingtonpost
by the great
@RaySuarezNews
on the importance of
@JulianCastro
's campaign and his willingness to engage on issues of class, poverty and so much more:
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I don't mean to harp on NY-3, but actually, we need to. Polls showed immig was top concern - sound familiar? Polls showed the race in NY-3 tied. With Biden hammering the GOP on the border bill, the GOP is now on defense and Dems can win back enough support on the border to win.
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LOTS OF DISCUSSION OF "THE HISPANICS" !!
Latino sample is only n=100 and not weighted to the actual demographics of nativity, ethnic origin, language preference, state or educational attainment. In short, the tiny sample is not representative of a national Latino profile AT ALL
Biden vs. Trump
White: Trump +17%
Black: Biden +59%
Hispanic: Trump +1%
Republicans: Trump +83
Democrats: Biden +83
Independents: Trump +19
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Trump campaign announces release of Latino ad - which is the EXACT SAME AD they ran in 2020 when the lost.... 🤔 So they closed RNC Hispanic outreach centers and did not even make a new ad for 2024?
As Trump takes over the RNC, does away with Hispanic community center initiative, and Biden camp unveils Latinos con Biden complete with new paid media and a southwest swing, worth noting this Latinos for Trump ad below is from 2020:
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Latino vote delivered for
@ReverendWarnock
in Georgia tonight, here is the vote for Warnock in majority-Latino precincts (most >70% Latino) in Gwinnett County which averaged 74.2% for Warnock, thanks to
@GALEOorg
@PoderLatinx
@MiFamiliaVota
@CASAinAction
who did amazing GOTV🍑
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In particular, the poll has a strange result of the people who did not vote in 2020, mostly new voters, they claim +16 Trump, driving his entire lead in this poll. Again, this flies in the face of HUGE party reg gains made by Dems post-Dobbs and strong '22 showing w new voters
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Today I'm thinking of all of my Native American friends and allies; scholars dedicated to lifting up Native voices, activist dedicated to promoting Native rights and equality. Thank you for the work you are doing! 👊🏽👏🏽
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@Tom_Winter
So white suspect threatening to harm self and spouse, has 10 firearms in house, and was arrested peacefully. Nobody came barging in shooting and asking questions later? Okay, weird how that works when it is a WHITE SUSPECT, huh? cc: Louisville PD
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@ratemyskyperoom
Normally my dog is there on the couch for the 10/10 but it was 5:45am pacific in her defense.....
@Morning_Joe
@morningmika
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Sec
@JulianCastro
is absolutely dominating right now on the immigration policy debate, showing he knows far more about this topic than
@BetoORourke
and challenging other Democrats to support his policy to decriminalize undocumented status, very bold
#MiamiDemocraticDebates
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@sharimhmartinez
FYI police CHP murder in Oakland during routine traffic stop
@JakeMGrumbach
@Taeku_Lee
@lameramitotera
@blkprofcct
@rabarretom
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Overall, the poll completely misreads how Democrats respond to pollsters and express frustration versus how Democrats vote. NY-3 is a perfect indication, shows the exact opposite in a real election as to what polls *suggest* - same with Dems flipping a State Leg seat in Orlando
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If you did not see the analysis from
@UCLAlatino
on Arizona it is 🔥🔥🔥 - there was a record turnout and in Pima County 81% of Latinos went for Biden. EIGHTY. ONE. PERCENT.
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BREAKING:
@ucla_vrp
@UCLAlatino
has released a comprehensive report with specific policy recommendations on how to implement national, universal vote-by-mail to protect our elections in November: full report here, please share and promote in DC:
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Latinos and young voters are changing AZ. It is happening before our eyes. Final NYT/Siena poll finds Biden +40 with Latinos, driving his statewide margin. But this is a poll. We need a final big push on election day to make this a reality. Our AZ team is THE BEST!
#VOTE
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@shaunking
Are you in Nevada volunteering? At which caucus site? This is a high stress day fueled by unpaid volunteers. The caucus is not run by the DNC, it is run by the State Party and voting starts at 12 noon, not 11:22am. Let's all be patient and be very THANKFUL to the volunteers 🙏🏽
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Let this number sink in: The # of eligible Latino voters increased from 24,000 to 90,000 in just 16 years - that is a HUGE increase in a small state.
@realMABarreto
@UCLALuskin
@NALEO
@votolatino
@jennymedina
@MiFamiliaVota
@NBCLatino
@iowademocrats
@BeHIPGive
@LDCLatino
@latinojustice
@MALDEF
@lasocialscience
@LatinoCaucus
@AspenLatinos
@ucla_vrp
Between 2004 & 2020, Iowa experienced a 375% ⬆️ in the # of eligible Latino voters & a 346% ⬆️ in the # of Latino registered voters.
#Latinovote
#IowaCaucuses
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@marisolssamayoa
@PeteButtigieg
2/2
@JulianCastro
@SenKamalaHarris
@BernieSanders
@CoryBooker
@JoeBiden
have all already put out their own plans on this MONTHS AGO. I wish Mayor Pete all the best, and want ALL the candidates to do more Latino outreach, but let's give credit to the ones who already did this.
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Record turnout. Early numbers indicate 8.6 million Latinos have already voted. Raw #'s already showing net plus of Latino voters + already exceeding even Obama Latino vote #
YOUNG LATINO VOTERS (18-29) SHOWING UP IN
#ELECTION2020
🙌🏾:
1.7 MILLION+ YOUNG LATINOS HAVE VOTED EARLY - + 313% FROM 2016.
1.7 MILLION+ YOUNG LATINOS HAVE VOTED EARLY - + 313% FROM 2016.
1.7 MILLION+ YOUNG LATINOS HAVE VOTED EARLY - + 313% FROM 2016.
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As I have been saying all cycle, Latinos tend to vote late, closer to, or ON ELECTION DAY. Here is
@GarySegura
, Ph.D. Dean of
@UCLALuskin
& co-founder of
@LatinoDecisions
casting his ballot on Monday, November 2nd. It counts! Expect a HUGE Latino vote Nov 2 and Nov 3!
#Vote
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Comparing pre/post debate favorability data
@FiveThirtyEight
shows
@JulianCastro
saw the largest increase in favorability of any of the 20 candidates, growing +18.5 points pre/post debate. Imagine after a few more rounds on the stage?!
#AdiosTrump
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We are now seeing to giant planes dip down into the Pacific Ocean to collect water and then fly back and drop them over the
#GettyFire
Surreal.
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Hey
@nytimes
love that you are copying our
@UCLAlatino
precinct charts, but you forgot 7th grade graphing x vs. y-axis, so I fixed this for you. Also added a lowess fit line. Takeaway, higher density Latino precinct = larger vote for Biden
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NBC - YOU CAN AND MUST DO BETTER! Latino leaders demand more from NBC, Brokaw, Meet the Press for xenophobic comments -- please add your names to the letter! cc:
@latinorebels
@julito77
@laloalcaraz
@GustavoArellano
@NBCNews
@MeetThePress
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This is 100% a noose, not a "garage pull rope" and it is 100% a racist symbol of hate
#NASCAR
NASCAR releases photo to the media of the garage pull rope formed as a noose from the Bubba Wallace garage Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway.
This image was provide by NASCAR.
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Some great analysis here by someone who knows the Texas Latino vote 👇🏾
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New paper out in print edition
@PRQjournal
led by
@mfr_roman
with an assist from
@hlw_phd
& me. Marcel uses 6 surveys to evaluate how social ties w undoc immig generate an identity bond among high ethnic identifiers pushing them to engage politics, both protesting and also voting
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Second, the question primes the respondent by stating "These immigrants have outstanding court orders to be removed from the U.S" so the question is telling the respondent - hey these people SHOULD be deported, so it is not surprising that people agree with what they were told 3/
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For those following
#CA39
House race, it now looks like
@GilCisnerosCA
will secure his place in runoff election in 2nd place, due almost entirely to strength of the Latino vote, in majority-Latino precincts he ran in 1st place and turnout was way up over 2014
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So who at
@MSNBC
put this together? It should be captioned "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, WILL A WHITE MALE PLEASE ENTER THE RACE?! I'M SO SCARED! I WANT MY MOMMY!"
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Hurricane Hanna takes down Trump super secure "beautiful" border wall. 🌀👍🏽
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Congrats to our newest PhD candidate
@UCLA_REP
@ana_loaxaca
who successfully defended her really impressive dissertation prospectus on how immigration has become nationalized and how local elected officials respond to pro/anti immigration policy issues.
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