Pacemaker.Global
@pacemakerglobal
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Financial stability solutions for multi-currency economies
Joined June 2021
We've just published our latest central bank #gold statistics for July. Central banks bought 55 tonnes of gold during the month, with China, Poland and Turkey the biggest buyers. You can read more about this, and link through to the data, here: https://t.co/O1Zc89j2Yp
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We resized the business model assumptions today for https://t.co/f9xHZKq5BL. A bit surprised to find Triparty Repo has grown to $18 Trillion outstanding secured interbank credit. I drafted the first Triparty Repo as an addendum to GMRA when we innovated the market in the 1990s.
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I'm not sure Pettis has it right. If international settlements are in mercantilist gold, then China won't need to open the current and trade accounts to grow cross-border mercantilist finance and trade.
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FT: The new reforms . . unify issuance rules across China’s bond markets, streamline registration and account opening for issuers, and allow issuers to engage in derivatives trading with local financial groups to mitigate foreign exchange risk. Good plumbing grows markets.
1/4 "The Deutsche bond is the first issued under new rules for renminbi debt issuance by foreign entities announced late last year by SAFE, which permit proceeds raised domestically in China to be used offshore for the first time." https://t.co/VPLfV4QwUP
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#Japan minister signs clean energy cooperation document during Saudi visit
reuters.com
Saudi Arabia and Japan signed a memorandum of cooperation (MoC) on Sunday in the fields of the circular carbon economy, carbon recycling, clean hydrogen and fuel ammonia, the Saudi Energy Ministry...
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In attempting to decouple from a China integrated with the rest of the world, the US will find itself decoupling from the world. Latin American trade with China is multiples of trade with the US, and growing more rapidly. As usual, Mahbubani expresses the US dilemma clearly.
"A #decoupling between #US and #China may mean the decoupling between US and the world." Kishore Mahbubani
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A mega-gloomy outlook from Dr Doom. He called time on RMBS from about 2005, so we have about 2 or 3 years until the end of the world, if he's still on form.
I predicted the 2008 crash – these are the global 'megathreats' I can see now. Life as we know it is under threat, as short-term-thinking politicians ignore the signs that point to a dystopian future | @Nouriel Nouriel Roubini
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There is renewed interest in how Japanese flows impact US markets. The Fed has adjusted its valuation adjusted data on monthly bond flows into the US through August. Japanese demand for Treasuries had disappeared even before the MoF started selling in September. 1/x
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2022 may have seen the peak in global foreign exchange reserves as central banks sold more than $1 trillion of bonds while buying $400 billion in gold in Q3 alone. #CentralBanks #reserves #GOLD
https://t.co/qD2GPDBcs7
pacemaker.global
Exploring the reasons that global accumulation of official foreign exchange reserves may have peaked.
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UK doesn't need more gilts or Sterling instability, but if Rishi Sunak is determined to alienate China, we may get more turbulent markets. https://t.co/ftB1sU2JKf
#centralbanks #gilts #Sterling #GBP
pacemaker.global
Continuing to antagonise one of the world's largest creditors is unwise while the gilts market remains vulnerable.
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35 years ago the 1987 market crash (the first Greenspan put) taught me the lessons the 2022 gilts crisis teaches again today. https://t.co/RiPwED7iiB
pacemaker.global
1987 market crash compared to 2022 market vulnerabilities
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The pound and gilts crisis may have started with the decision to expropriate Central Bank of Venezuela monetary and gold reserves in 2019. Sanctions on Russia this year speeded divestment. #centralbanks #gold #reserves
https://t.co/v2cUODe8xl
pacemaker.global
Expropriation of Venezuelan gold reserves started the crisis sell-off in gilts
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Extremely sad and tragic news out of Japan. The assassination of Shinzo Abe, Japan's former and longest-serving Prime Minister, robs the country and globe of a world-class leader. He leaves a legacy of bold policies, courage, and dedication to the welfare of his people May he RIP
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#Centralbanks are no longer viewed as infallible, independent, or generally competent. That is a big problem for the social construct of '#Currency', and our need to finance economies with debt. https://t.co/3eSSI262Jb
omfif.org
Public investors will have to work harder to preserve capital
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We predicted in February at the first talk of #Sanctions that the German and Italian industrial economies would collapse from the blowback and bring the #Euro into peril. We take no satisfaction in being right.
omfif.org
Terms of trade in Europe set to suffer from higher energy prices
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OK, one more shock: the assassination of Japan's former Prime Minister Abe. I have zero to say about what might lie behind it and what it means. But I can talk about my meeting with Abe in 2016; he was a complicated and interesting leader, not easy to characterize 1/
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Better data for better policy, exemplified in this time series animation of the US Treasuries yield curve over time. https://t.co/9umUXPAVPq
#dataviz #centralbanks #monetarypolicy
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Recognising the 'helpers': India, UAE, Qatar and Saudi, for their aid to neighbours Sri Lanka and Egypt, two economies destabilised by the crisis re-pricing of energy and food. https://t.co/ogFRXTaO6r
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