
Paula Surridge
@p_surridge
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Deputy Director @ukandeu, Professor of Political Sociology @spaisbristol Lurking X posting @ PS: Polling Snippets
Joined May 2013
RT @SophieStowers: As disappointing as this decision is, it has made me realise we’ve done a lot out of our tiny office on the Strand over….
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Very sad to have to share this news today. The politics and policy landscape will be poorer for losing a key *independent* voice.
End of an era. Gutted to have to announce this today. Proud of what @UKandEU has achieved and very grateful to all those who have worked with us
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With the release of the new data I will be running, visualising and writing a lot about voters and the election but not here so if you like that sort of thing look out for substack and the 'other' not threads place.
Happy #EPOP2024 everyone. We are pleased to announce the release of waves 27, 28, and 29 of the BES Internet Panel. You can find the panel, and the standalone files, on our website: .
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Back from holiday and have decided to give this a try, BlueSubSkyStack - new analyses will be on this link in the near future (nothing to see yet).
@t0nyyates @Beyond_Topline I'm on holiday and giving a lot of thought to this at the moment. May try a different model when I get back, possibly via substack + Blue sky not sure yet if it can work well enough to 'lurk' here post elsewhere.
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RT @ScotVoting: 🚨📉 New blog on GE2024 in Scotland!. Three important constituency-level results using new geographical 2014 indyref vote est….
scottishelections.ac.uk
Do the results of the 2024 UK general election signal a decisive break from the constitutionally-aligned voting behaviour of the last decade? While we will only know the true extent of this shift...
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Giving us a good measure of the size of the very online Reform vote. And the more their MPs think they are the base and go after that vote the harder the cap on the vote share.
Should those taking part in the recent riots receive sentences that are harsher than usual for that kind of crime?. Should be harsher.Con/Lab/Lib Dem voters: 51-57%.Reform UK voters: 27%. Should be about the same as normal.Con/Lab/Lib Dem voters: 38-43%.Reform UK voters: 51%
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Away on the South Devon coast for a few more days but not sure if continuing here is sustainable. Will write about it when I get back as it makes me really sad.
@t0nyyates @Beyond_Topline I'm on holiday and giving a lot of thought to this at the moment. May try a different model when I get back, possibly via substack + Blue sky not sure yet if it can work well enough to 'lurk' here post elsewhere.
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RT @LukeTryl: Think Farage is in danger of speaking to his online audience rather than body of Reform voters here. Speaking to Reform voter….
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'At a key moment, given the opportunity to remove a very unpopular government, a large part of the electorate shrugged and carried on with their day' - one of the many stories to explore when data becomes available later in the year.
"A resounding victory setting Labour up for five years or more of power, or an unenthusiastic electorate picking the best of a bad lot? It really depends on who you ask.". Labour's election win was unusual in more ways than one - the party will need to plan carefully if it is to.
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Written immediately after the election, happy to share these reflections on the result.
"A resounding victory setting Labour up for five years or more of power, or an unenthusiastic electorate picking the best of a bad lot? It really depends on who you ask.". Labour's election win was unusual in more ways than one - the party will need to plan carefully if it is to.
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No evidence for this as yet, could've been the polls were just a bit out all along for methodological not political reasons. But I'd been more interested in the supermajority narrative than taxation for anything leading to late swing.
— party strategists think Tory claims about Labour tax rises could be a reason why the election result was closer than polls suggested. — Reeves would not want to confirm those suspicions of middle ground voters, one aide said.
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Last of the immediate post-election writing deadlines met. Time to squash everything into the car and head to the seaside.for two weeks. Hopefully I can update this when I get back
public.flourish.studio
A Flourish data visualization by Paula Surridge
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Full scale version here
public.flourish.studio
A Flourish data visualization by Paula Surridge
Finally got this to work. How the different values groups voted in 2015/17/19 compared with pre-campaign data in 2024. Labour roughly back to where they started in 2015 on the left but making gains in the centre and barely gaining any voters on the right.
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How did this change during the campaign - expect Labour lost a bit more on the liberal-left but broadly in line with what post-election data from @Moreincommon_ and @focaldataHQ have shown. Will update when post-election data available.
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As I said at the start of the campaign at @BPC event, the Conservatives party can absolutely win an election and bring back lost voters, just not the 2024 one. Though it will depend on a much better understanding of the electorate than they've shown in the last few years.
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