Paula Surridge Profile
Paula Surridge

@p_surridge

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Following
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Deputy Director @ukandeu, Professor of Political Sociology @spaisbristol Lurking X posting @ PS: Polling Snippets

Joined May 2013
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
10 months
Sophie is being far too modest here, so much more than a co-author, the report would not exist without her. An incredible effort when months of work was completely upended by the election timing.
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
10 months
In case you are wondering where all my charts have gone you can find a few here and follow for lots more in the next few weeks .
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
10 months
RT @SophieStowers: As disappointing as this decision is, it has made me realise we’ve done a lot out of our tiny office on the Strand over….
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
10 months
Very sad to have to share this news today. The politics and policy landscape will be poorer for losing a key *independent* voice.
@anandMenon1
Anand Menon
10 months
End of an era. Gutted to have to announce this today. Proud of what @UKandEU has achieved and very grateful to all those who have worked with us
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
10 months
With the release of the new data I will be running, visualising and writing a lot about voters and the election but not here so if you like that sort of thing look out for substack and the 'other' not threads place.
@BESResearch
British Election Study
10 months
Happy #EPOP2024 everyone. We are pleased to announce the release of waves 27, 28, and 29 of the BES Internet Panel. You can find the panel, and the standalone files, on our website: .
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
11 months
Finding my experiment easier to make work with B*Sky than with S*Stack so far. But miss the breadth of discussion across different types of voices and organisations. Think of it as being in beta version 0.7 find me here ⬇️
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
11 months
Back from holiday and have decided to give this a try, BlueSubSkyStack - new analyses will be on this link in the near future (nothing to see yet).
@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
@t0nyyates @Beyond_Topline I'm on holiday and giving a lot of thought to this at the moment. May try a different model when I get back, possibly via substack + Blue sky not sure yet if it can work well enough to 'lurk' here post elsewhere.
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
RT @ScotVoting: 🚨📉 New blog on GE2024 in Scotland!. Three important constituency-level results using new geographical 2014 indyref vote est….
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scottishelections.ac.uk
Do the results of the 2024 UK general election signal a decisive break from the constitutionally-aligned voting behaviour of the last decade? While we will only know the true extent of this shift...
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
Giving us a good measure of the size of the very online Reform vote. And the more their MPs think they are the base and go after that vote the harder the cap on the vote share.
@YouGov
YouGov
1 year
Should those taking part in the recent riots receive sentences that are harsher than usual for that kind of crime?. Should be harsher.Con/Lab/Lib Dem voters: 51-57%.Reform UK voters: 27%. Should be about the same as normal.Con/Lab/Lib Dem voters: 38-43%.Reform UK voters: 51%
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
Away on the South Devon coast for a few more days but not sure if continuing here is sustainable. Will write about it when I get back as it makes me really sad.
@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
@t0nyyates @Beyond_Topline I'm on holiday and giving a lot of thought to this at the moment. May try a different model when I get back, possibly via substack + Blue sky not sure yet if it can work well enough to 'lurk' here post elsewhere.
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
RT @LukeTryl: Think Farage is in danger of speaking to his online audience rather than body of Reform voters here. Speaking to Reform voter….
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
'At a key moment, given the opportunity to remove a very unpopular government, a large part of the electorate shrugged and carried on with their day' - one of the many stories to explore when data becomes available later in the year.
@thefabians
The Fabian Society
1 year
"A resounding victory setting Labour up for five years or more of power, or an unenthusiastic electorate picking the best of a bad lot? It really depends on who you ask.". Labour's election win was unusual in more ways than one - the party will need to plan carefully if it is to.
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
Written immediately after the election, happy to share these reflections on the result.
@thefabians
The Fabian Society
1 year
"A resounding victory setting Labour up for five years or more of power, or an unenthusiastic electorate picking the best of a bad lot? It really depends on who you ask.". Labour's election win was unusual in more ways than one - the party will need to plan carefully if it is to.
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
No evidence for this as yet, could've been the polls were just a bit out all along for methodological not political reasons. But I'd been more interested in the supermajority narrative than taxation for anything leading to late swing.
@alexwickham
Alex Wickham
1 year
— party strategists think Tory claims about Labour tax rises could be a reason why the election result was closer than polls suggested. — Reeves would not want to confirm those suspicions of middle ground voters, one aide said.
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
Last of the immediate post-election writing deadlines met. Time to squash everything into the car and head to the seaside.for two weeks. Hopefully I can update this when I get back
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public.flourish.studio
A Flourish data visualization by Paula Surridge
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
Full scale version here
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public.flourish.studio
A Flourish data visualization by Paula Surridge
@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
Finally got this to work. How the different values groups voted in 2015/17/19 compared with pre-campaign data in 2024. Labour roughly back to where they started in 2015 on the left but making gains in the centre and barely gaining any voters on the right.
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
How did this change during the campaign - expect Labour lost a bit more on the liberal-left but broadly in line with what post-election data from @Moreincommon_ and @focaldataHQ have shown. Will update when post-election data available.
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
Finally got this to work. How the different values groups voted in 2015/17/19 compared with pre-campaign data in 2024. Labour roughly back to where they started in 2015 on the left but making gains in the centre and barely gaining any voters on the right.
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
And critically on Labour's performance particularly on the NHS and other key services. But for the Conservatives heading further right-wards seems likely to leave space for the LibDems to bed down in their newly won seats. And with no costs of governing to erode LD support.
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@p_surridge
Paula Surridge
1 year
As I said at the start of the campaign at @BPC event, the Conservatives party can absolutely win an election and bring back lost voters, just not the 2024 one. Though it will depend on a much better understanding of the electorate than they've shown in the last few years.
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