Paweł Skrzypczyński
@p_skrzypczynski
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🇺🇦✌🏻🇵🇱 Economist, petrolhead, photographer, cyclist. Posting mainly on U.S. 🇺🇸 economy.
Warszawa, Polska
Joined June 2018
RT @NickTimiraos: Economists who translate the CPI and PPI into the PCE expect monthly core inflation was 0.28% in July (3.4% annualized),….
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The whole world went bananas in 2025….
The average US tariff on bananas was functionally 0% until March of this year. It is now 9.2%.
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Does the PPI release for July mean that current acting BLS commissioner is the next target?.
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Today's PPI report carries bad news for PCE inflation in July. Portfolio management fees as measured by the PPI surged 5.8% m/m in July and are set to add 0.09 pp to monthly core PCE inflation and 0.15 pp to monthly core PCE services ex housing inflation.
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Higher core HICP inflation in the U.S. in comparison to the euro area in July occurred for the first time since November 2022.
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Time to check core HICP inflation in the U.S. This measure is important as it allows to compare inflation between the U.S. and the euro area on apples-to-apples basis. In July it hit 2.5% y/y and was 0.2 pp higher than the euro area counterpart.
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Bad news for short-lived-transitory inflation episode.
As more reciprocal tariffs take effect, it's worth noting that prices for many retail goods have been steadily rising since March. The increases may seem modest, but they are adding up. See We just updated our paper with an event study showing that—after
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I’m still astonished with the misunderstanding of how tariffs work. THEY ARE NOT PAID TO THE U.S. GOV BY FOREIGN NATIONS, THEY ARE PAID TO THE U.S. GOV BY U.S. CONSUMERS & BUSINESSES.
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June international trade data release for the U.S. confirms trends observed so far in terms of shifts in imports of goods. Chinese share of U.S. goods imports shrinks. but transshipping via Vietnam, Taiwan and India gains strength.
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The expected level of the AETR due to enacted tariffs so far is way higher. According to @The_Budget_Lab it is 17.3% measured post-substitution.
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This is massive but still far from what is ahead. In July the average effective tariff rate (AETR) was 9.6% vs 9.8% in June, assuming imports of goods did not change in July vs June.
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The tax burden on consumers and businesses in the U.S. due to trade policy gains strength. Through end of July total calendar year tariff revenue surpassed $100 bn easily and stands at 0.4% of 2024 GDP.
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New set of tariffs, old problem. Adding these cracks in labor market we saw today… Q3 starts to shape poorly. GDPNow at 2.1% is optimistic but based on “no data set for Q3” actually. PCE is most important, base for a negative print in Q3 is set already.
@The_Budget_Lab Consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 18.3%, a 15.9pp increase from 2024 & the highest since 1934. After consumers & businesses shift spending in reaction to the tariffs, the average tariff rate will be 17.3%, a 14.9pp increase & the highest since 1935. 2/10
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Bad news.
One thing that puzzled me before today's data:. GDP growth in H1 was weak, about 1.2%. But job growth was relatively strong. I was just telling someone yesterday that one of them was likely wrong. It turns out it was the jobs side that was wrong & both signals now consistent.
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Write that down, this man is right!.
A frustrating & foreseeable trajectory. Without renewed goods inflation, the declining trend would’ve continues. The final lags to inflation would’ve driven us back to 2% . Now inflation looks “stuck” above 2%. Now we’ll hear the Fed needs to be tighter, labor mkt weaker 🙄.
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Exactly! Markets forget about such issues (which is not surprising at all).
Finally, I don't think people appreciate just how much re-inflation we've had. Last year core PCE inflation was 2.8%. It was forecasted to fall to 2.2% in the first half of this year, instead it was 3.0% (annual rate).
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Preview of tomorrow’s inflation prints based on today’s NIPA release. Also available on my LinkedIn.
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