Philippe Mongrain
@p_mongrain
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Chercheur postdoctoral / Postdoctoral researcher @m2p_be @UAntwerpen | @CLESSN_UL | Public opinion, Voting behaviour, Election forecasting 🗳 | PhD, @UMontreal
Joined January 2020
🚨 New publication with @NFrchet, @BrianTh18524140, and @yannickdufresne! I am happy to share that our new paper on citizen forecasting and the wisdom of crowds is out in @CJPS_RCSP! 🇨🇦 🗳 @pol4casting @m2p_be
@Sciencepo_UdeM @pol_ulaval Check it out 👇 https://t.co/K9U2aFzqSi
cambridge.org
Working the Crowd: Citizen Forecasting, Sophistication and Diversity in Canadian Federal and Provincial Elections - Volume 58 Issue 1
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🌅📙 64.3 As you wish? 🧞♀️ Looking at 13 countries @p_mongrain, @NinoJunius & @NathalieBrack ask who calls the shots, with most citizens preferring delegate-style reps who follow #PublicOpinion. But how do MP's see themselves? #Democracy 🔗 https://t.co/S3mxBd6dNz
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
How much autonomy elected representatives should have in looking after the interests of their constituents is a central question of democratic theory. While much research has been conducted on the...
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[ À LIRE ] Avec Éric Bélanger, @p_mongrain et @thomasgareau, la professeure Valérie-Anne Mahéo vient de publier l’article «A Party that Went Viral? The Drivers of Support for the Parti conservateur du Québec in the 2022 Election» dans la @CJPS_RCSP. https://t.co/3wtzeGvJJO
fss.ulaval.ca
En collaboration avec Éric Bélanger, Philippe Mongrain et Thomas Gareau-Paquette, la professeure Valérie-Anne Mahéo vient de publier l’article « A Party that Went Viral? The Drivers of Support for...
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Delighted to see the new issue! Thanks to my co-guest editor @p_mongrain & all the contributors for their forecasts.
NEW ISSUE from @ps_polisci - PS: Political Science & Politics - Forecasting the 2024 US Election - Volume 58 - Issue 2 - April 2025 - https://t.co/NdG1Y5qZox
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#OpenAccess from @CJPS_RCSP - A Party that Went Viral? The Drivers of Support for the Parti Conservateur du Québec in the 2022 Election - https://t.co/Zaq1wDhpgf - Éric Bélanger, @p_mongrain, @thomasgareau & Valérie-Anne Mahéo #FirstView
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NEW ISSUE from @ps_polisci - PS: Political Science & Politics - Forecasting the 2024 US Election - Volume 58 - Issue 2 - April 2025 - https://t.co/NdG1Y5qZox
@APSAtweets
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#OpenAccess from @CJPS_RCSP - Working the Crowd: Citizen Forecasting, Sophistication and Diversity in Canadian Federal and Provincial Elections - https://t.co/dcc3T0J6Q0 - @p_mongrain, @NFrchet, Brian Thompson Collart & @yannickdufresne
#FirstView
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Happy to share that CHES party positions are now also available for Canada! 🇨🇦 Big thanks to @r_dassonneville and @ches_data The published data note can be found here: https://t.co/CsSXwc81Zd
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Cornell Professor Led Presidential Election Forecast That Correctly Predicted Results for All 50 States
cornellsun.com
The Cornell Daily Sun - Independent Since 1880.
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Today @p_mongrain & I presented an analysis of the @ps_polisci 2024 US election forecasts @NuffieldCollege @UniofOxford. Thanks to @RayDuch & @RobertoCerina for organizing such a fantastic workshop!
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🗞️Kamala Harris a-t-elle perdu les élections américaines parce qu’elle est une femme? Avec les analyses de notre chercheuse @r_dassonneville.
24heures.ca
Peut-être que Kamala Harris aurait été élue si elle avait incarné les valeurs conservatrices du camp républicain, suggèrent des experts.
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Please read. Learn about what political science can achieve.
The Electoral College prediction map in our @ps_polisci Special Issue introduction published in mid-October looks just like the actual results. Election fundamentals & scientific approaches work!
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The Electoral College prediction map in our @ps_polisci Special Issue introduction published in mid-October looks just like the actual results. Election fundamentals & scientific approaches work!
cambridge.org
Introduction to Forecasting the 2024 US Elections - Volume 58 Issue 2
We are obviously still waiting for the final results, but the average Electoral College forecast from state-level models in the @ps_polisci Special Issue on Forecasting the 2024 US Elections is looking quite accurate! 🇺🇲 🗳 @m2p_be @Sciencepo_UdeM @McGillPoliSci @MizzouPoliSci
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My 2024 election forecast published in @ps_polisci @CUP_PoliSci with @JuliusLagodny, @jcolner99, and Anusha Kumar correctly forecasted 45/45 called states 100 days before the election using @verasight_data: https://t.co/jbKXs5qPwR.
cambridge.org
Understanding Biden’s Exit and the 2024 Election: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model - Volume 58 Issue 2
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New pub in @n_nationalism: How attitudes towards independence reshaped 🏴 elections: A longitudinal analysis (1999–2021)🗳️ We quantify some massive changes in the role of independence for citizens' vote choice 👇👇 🔓 https://t.co/sOJDCaYLCm with @thomasgareau @PolStudiesAssoc
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If you haven't already, check my intro with @MaryStegmaier and the contributions from a great group of forecasters 👇
cambridge.org
Introduction to Forecasting the 2024 US Elections - Volume 58 Issue 2
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We are obviously still waiting for the final results, but the average Electoral College forecast from state-level models in the @ps_polisci Special Issue on Forecasting the 2024 US Elections is looking quite accurate! 🇺🇲 🗳 @m2p_be @Sciencepo_UdeM @McGillPoliSci @MizzouPoliSci
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[OUT] 'Politicians’ Theories of Voting Behavior', new paper by @NathalieBrack and @jbpilet, researchers at SciencePo ULB (#Cevipol) in collaboration with Jack Lucas, @LiorSheffer, and other colleagues, in @apsrjournal
https://t.co/w7oXxFRjAG
cambridge.org
Politicians’ Theories of Voting Behavior - Volume 119 Issue 3
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In the spirit of Election Day, we share the special issue forecasting the outcome!
**NOW ONLINE** PS's Special Issue on #Forecasting the 2024 US #Elections is up & free to read! Check it out: https://t.co/9BHKKqyRx8
#Election2024 #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #vote #forecast **Image made w photos from Getty by Scott Olson, Justin Sullivan & Brendan Smialowski
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Do not forget to take a look at the @ps_polisci Special Issue on Forecasting the 2024 US Elections! 🇺🇲 🗳 Who will it be? 🔵 Harris or 🔴 Trump? @m2p_be @MizzouPoliSci @Sciencepo_UdeM @McGillPoliSci @pol_ulaval
**NOW ONLINE** PS's Special Issue on #Forecasting the 2024 US #Elections is up & free to read! Check it out: https://t.co/9BHKKqyRx8
#Election2024 #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #vote #forecast **Image made w photos from Getty by Scott Olson, Justin Sullivan & Brendan Smialowski
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