Happy news: my (first-ever) paper while in PhD (@NSSRNews) , co-authored with @WilliSemmler, was published by Metroeconomica. It investigates the real-financial interactions in Brazil using a non-linear VAR model. Here’s a short thread with the main results (1/9):

PL de Mercado de Carbono robusto e garantindo integridade ambiental e internacional. Satisfação poder contar com a contribuição técnica e espírito colaborativo de todos os envolvidos. Ainda temos muito trabalho, mas foi um grande passo hoje!

Hoje faremos o lançamento da Consulta Pública do Plano de Ação da Taxonomia Sustentável Brasileira. Para quem quiser acompanhar ao vivo, estaremos às 15h aqui para explicar como vai funcionar: https://t.co/ol4XlevXMu

#SUSTENTABILIDADE I Regulamentação do mercado de carbono foi discutida entre mais de dez ministérios, com foco na redução das emissões dos gases de efeito estufa e no fomento a inovações tecnológicas de baixo carbono. Saiba mais: https://t.co/4FDglUhY82

"Vc quer trabalhar com o Kassab dps de sair do BC?", pergunta a jornalista para a pessoa q foi pega em telefonema com dono de banco discutindo juros e exerce a função em q 10 em cada 10 saem para trabalhar pra bancos.

Simply the greatest

NSSR faculty, students, & alums presenting at #26FMM include: ➡️ @WilliSemmler + Jose Pedro Bastos Neves ➡️ Mark Setterfield ➡️ @plbds ➡️ @ettoregallo1 ➡️ @clarabrenck ➡️ @alichtenberger_ ➡️ @AvritzerJoana + Frutuoso Santana ➡️ @Chiko2181 ➡️ @mnikiforos ➡️ @ovallescodina

📢 today @ 2pm join @WilliSemmler & @nevesjpb as they discuss a new concept for addressing the climate crisis-- a wealth tax to be levied on carbon-intensive capital instead of products. Register here:

Tackling climate change requires closing many oil and gas fields. Who owns these stranded assets? In @NatureClimate we trace $1.4 trillion in losses at the field to their ultimate owners and show that mainly private persons in rich countries stand to lose. https://t.co/bodGeU0fnU

Inequality and climate change: The top 1% emitters of CO2 are responsible for 21% of the growth in emissions since 1990.

New episode! 🎧 Our host @Ed_Crooks is joined by @AmyJaffeenergy and @andrew_leach as they explore how major US companies may be required to report climate risks and emissions, Canada's new emissions reduction plan and the new IPCC report. Listen here: https://t.co/nkTw0G2Wnk

Looking forward: credit performance may be instrumental in speeding up recovery and thus has to be at the center of government policy. It stresses the importance of financial reforms (BC# Agenda). It also calls for a reversal of the squeeze on public credit. (10/10)

#2. Sheds light on the 2015 economic crisis and the subsequent stagnation, which (until the pandemic) was non-mean-reverting. We suggest this is due to the roll-back in the supply of public credit: 2015 was the only crisis where public credit displayed a downward trend.

Implication #1. Taken together, our results imply that credit conditions – market expectations, capital inflow, and institutional developments – played a key role during the Brazilian 2000 economic boom.

Smooth transition between regimes. Economic consequences of financial stress result from a cumulative build-up process. 1st reason: agents gather information on financial fragility and take time to change its behavior. 2nd, liquidity conditions slowly spread over the real sector.

Trajectories after shocks are non-linear. This is evidence that financial stress deepens and amplifies shocks. But, more importantly, they are also non-mean-reverting: they may not return to pre-shock trend, which is a feature highlighted by the hysteresis literature.

Credit statistically precedes output growth. This means banks are decisive in shaping economic performance. Implications to both heterodox (the drivers of Minskyian cycles) and conventional debates (financial-accelerator Bernanke-type models vs. financial cycles (Borio, 2014)).

We set up a VAR with output gap, credit growth, and financial stress index to investigate the Brazilian economy from 1999 to 2017. We use the latter to define high- and low-stress regimes, which affect credit and output interplay.

First, here’s the link to the publication (after 1 year and a half since submission):

The 21st century still has a long 20th century laying ahead...