Mike Simonsen 🐉
@mikesimonsen
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I help people understand the housing market. Now: Chief Economist at Compass. Prev: founder CEO, Altos Research (aqc by HW Media)
San Francisco, CA
Joined March 2008
Who had "Inventory Decline" on their August housing market bingo card?. It sure looks like sellers are pulling back now. New Listings ticked down for the 4th week in a row. 11% fewer sellers than last year. Check the latest @compass Intelligence market video. 🧵📽️ 👇. 1/7
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7/7 . Here's this week's Compass Intelligence video with the details.
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6/7 Price Reductions. Price cuts are elevated, but not accelerating. This is consistent with sellers not listing or withdrawing. Sellers who can choose to wait are waiting. 42% of the active listings have taken a price cut.
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5/7 Home Prices are about to go negative. Looking at Price per square foot data this week. The 2025 numbers are about to drop below 2024. The lagging sales price headlines are still reporting 2-3% price appreciation. That sure looks to me like it's about to change.
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4/7 Weekly Pending Home Sales. Home sales have lost any steam they might have had vs. 2024. 67,000 single family homes started contract. Essentially the same pace as a year ago.
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3/7 New Listings. Fewer sellers each week than a year ago. 66,000 single family homes unsold. Another 13,000 immediate sales. All in all that's nearly 5% fewer sellers than the same week a year ago.
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2/7 Inventory. 860,000 single family homes for sale. That's up just 11bp from last week. A year ago inventory was rising 80-100bp per week. "Only" 23% more homes unsold now than a year ago.
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This week's @Compass Intelligence video is up. Two big ideas for the week.1⃣ Inventory is not growing, most people don't know this.2⃣ Home prices are about to go negative vs 2024. Potential sellers see weak pricing and are holding back. Video follows the thread 📽️🧵👇. 1/7.
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RT @Mascobot: Robotics engineers: "let's design a 7 DOF robot arm with a computer vision model running at 60 fps on the edge to recognize t….
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Good gig, while it lasts.
1/ Beyond the hype + headlines. some eye-opening AI stats to consider. Today Mag 7 = 35% of US stock mkt value. NVDA = 19% of that––and 42% of NVDA revenue comes from just 5 Big Tech co's buying GPUs: . Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Tesla.
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So much of the internet's trouble stems from in an inability to distinguish a simple description of what is from prescription of what you want it to be.
@mikesimonsen @JoeBlow60252271 You must have a reason to want the real estate market to hold up.
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Remember the housing crash of 1991? .@jonlan of the OC Register does.
ocregister.com
California’s median price fell 20% in the 1990s and 59% in the Great Recession.
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The world is moving so fast. Every "impossible" hurdle is just one framework model tweak away.
Humanoids finally move like humans… and can do more than copy. [Details + demos in thread 👇]. A new framework, BeyondMimic, shows how to learn naturalistic whole-body control from human motion. But then goes further by composing those skills into versatile, zero-shot
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Home prices are about to turn negative again. I illustrated the last several year of home prices to show what's under way.
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RT @The_One_Realty: @mikesimonsen We hit peak in Austin in June and are down for the year but still significantly higher than the typical i….
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Nashville and the whole country. Don’t look now, but we have may have already passed peak inventory for 2025.
Nashville Active Listings may have peaked for the year. In July. Wow.
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RT @EricFinnigan: "People are moving to new homes and new cities at around the lowest rate on record.". Our internal data shows households….
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The WSJ is picking up on “The Great Stay”. Something I think too few people are talking about:. A weak hiring market is contributing to a weak housing market. I have a job and a house, but I can’t get a new job so I’m staying put.
wsj.com
America’s mobility is stalling, and it has economic consequences for everyone. Growing families can’t upgrade, empty-nesters can’t downsize, and when people can’t move for a job offer, they often...
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I've never listened to Kelce's podcast, nor am I particularly a Swiftie. But I confess that I'm interested in this interview.
The latest episode of Travis and Jason Kelce’s podcast #NewHeights exploded thanks to the in-depth interview with Taylor Swift. Swift announced her new album, 'The Life of a Showgirl,' and gave what might be her longest and most candid interview ever:
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A few more hours to get your votes in!.
Monthly Home Price Poll Time!. What's your current expectation for where home prices* finish this year 2025? . *Prices as measured by the Altos weekly pending sales are up 1.53% over 2024 as of August 8. In my last poll of July 15, prices were up 1.06%.
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