Michael McNair
@michaeljmcnair
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Fund manager | Macro | Quant | AI
Joined March 2012
My report on @commonplc explains how China used subsidies to dominate critical supply chains, while we sat back refusing to provide support. The US must now use strategic investment as part of its industrial policy toolkit or accept permanent dependency https://t.co/eJrB6psi5F
commonplace.org
Free market fundamentalism can't compete with Chinese subsidies.
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📌 Webinar Alert--Shadow AI When: 11/6 Time: 1PM EST Are you an IT or Security Decision Maker thinking through your options around Shadow AI? Join Us! In 2025, 31% of all reported breaches were linked to unmonitored AI tools. That means you could be breached right now and
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Industrial policy history lesson: the US economy is so dynamic, comparative advantage is a policy choice.
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Why are we panicking over every blip in SOFR when the Fed now has a Standing Repo Facility (SRF)? The 2019 repo mkt blow up happened bc the Fed mis-measured unencumbered reserves while not having designed an SRF to police the top of its policy range in case they ever did
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Experimenting with “Dream Prompts” to Fight Context Rot in Long Conversations I’ve been testing whether having LLMs “dream” might help prevent context rot - that gradual degradation where models lose track of earlier parts of long conversations as their context windows fill up.
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🎥 “Factory floor workers should be able to put their money where they believe it is best.” —Rep. Rudy Yakym. Expanding access to private capital empowers Hoosiers to invest in their future.
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This is chart crime. You cannot claim real US nuclear costs rise linearly using a trend anchored to 1 outlier (Vogtle). We have a 2016 data point at $6/W that the linear fit mostly ignores. Linear trendlines on a tiny sample leads to bad conclusions. Vogtle is not the baseline.
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💰Something caught my eye in the ESF filings. The June monthly shows a curious $1.693bn BIS transaction - right when the debt ceiling was biting. Wonder what that’s about? Random aside, gold traded at $3,386/oz that day. Interesting coincidence: 500k oz would be exactly
BESSENT: GOLD PRICE RISING HAS HELPED US SUBSTANTIALLY
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Carful with this NY Times chart. It mixes US overnight costs (which include owner/site & grid tie-in) with China points that are EPC only. Add that back & China is closer to $4/w. Vogtle dots are an overrun outlier (remember the rebar fiasco*). Which is why the 2016 Watts Bar
China is eating our lunch on nuclear energy: 1. The 2 US Vogtle reactors were 7 years late & $17 billion over budget 2. China built 13 similar reactors over the same period (with 33 more reactors underway) 3. By 2030, China's nuclear capacity is set to surpass the US 4. China
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💰Something caught my eye in the ESF filings. The June monthly shows a curious $1.693bn BIS transaction - right when the debt ceiling was biting. Wonder what that’s about? Random aside, gold traded at $3,386/oz that day. Interesting coincidence: 500k oz would be exactly
BESSENT: GOLD PRICE RISING HAS HELPED US SUBSTANTIALLY
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🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑 CHINA EYES A 3-WAY CURRENCY SWAP WITH JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA - SCMP
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I’ve been involved with Molycorp/MP since we participated in their 2010 IPO. The WSJ article misses probably the single most critical reason China came to dominate rare earths refining…and refining is the part of the supply chain where they dominate and control 90% of global
Very useful WSJ report on how China gained control of rare earths processing/ permanent magnet production -- and how it kept control 1/
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NEAR 🤝 Sovereign AI Want to learn more about @svrn_ai? Join them live at 9am EST Oct 29th to hear how they will be supporting NEAR Protocol in powering the agentic future. Featuring: Sal, David, NEAR Legion
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@alwayslearni This is absolutely correct, and it's an important point. The DFC reform started gaining momentum well before the current administration. H.R.8926 The DFC Modernization and Reauthorization Act of 2024 passed these critical accounting changes through markup (though it never reached
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More evidence supporting my repeated claim that the administration is “turning the Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) and the International Development Finance Corp (DFC) into a private equity style sovereign wealth fund vehicle with hundreds of billions to trillion+ in funding
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This is actually a fantastic thought experiment. What would happen if the Fed set rates based on Fed Funds futures pricing? My initial thought was that rates would just get pinned wherever they happen to be. Why would anyone trade them differently if the Fed will just validate
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https://t.co/vGWWQ9GMvF Miran is absolutely right that monetary policy should be forecast driven, not based on backward-looking data. The interviewer's arrogant retort, “but that's not how the Fed operates”, actually highlights the problem. She dismisses Miran's point as if the
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