another way of illustrating the problem in the House

RT @kissphoria: had never heard of this but for just one year in the 90s there was a show on cable called TV Montrose which was just like a….

RT @mattmxhn: for Ds it's crazier: there are more Kamala Harris voters from the old TX-32 (Julie Johnson's district) in the new TX-33 than….

for Ds it's crazier: there are more Kamala Harris voters from the old TX-32 (Julie Johnson's district) in the new TX-33 than from the old TX-33 (Veasey). and if Sylvia Garcia runs in the new TX-9 because the new TX-29 is red, 52% of Harris voters will be new to her.

a few primary interesting situations for TX Rs, even as they're carefully single-bunked: 38% of the Trump '24 voters in Jake Ellzey's new district will be new to him, 42% for McCaul, 54% for Sessions, and 65-63% (!) for De La Cruz / 53-64% for Cloud depending where they run

RT @OwenWntr: Designed to guarantee Texas Republicans 30 seats no matter what. In a blue wave election you could imagine a handful of those….

it's not an especially complicated story, they're driving down the non-white share of the vote in four of the 5 districts they want to flip, and doing the same in TX-33 (which might kick Veasey out even if the district stays blue)

There are gon be some uglyyyyyy districts though.

undoing the Austin pack is the only thing in here that seems hair brained.

RT @admcrlsn: 🚨 🚨 A new NYC mayor general election poll from @ZenithPolls (me) & Public Progress (@amitsinghbagga) — the most comprehensive….

RT @baseballot: This would also be a huge problem for polls that use text messages.

RT @Jlrube: 🧵 The data you have all been waiting for! . The NYC mayoral primary WITHOUT batch elimination (and some early analysis). 1) Zoh….

if nothing else at least FPTP is going out with a bang.

RT @AlexCTaliadoros: Wow. The DC Council just voted 8-4 to implement Ranked Choice Voting in DC elections as proposed by Initiative 83. htt….

anyway -fin- sometimes things are just bad, and I have always been in camp "gerrymandering will get worse before it gets better".

gerrymanders don't fail as often as people would like to romanticize. the 2011 one worked just fine! paying 'the price' of Lizzie/Colin for 4 years was well worth the benefits the rest of the map brought them for a decade- and if the dam broke in '18 it would've made no.

although almost everyone (myself included) thinks they're going to whittle down HVAP in a bunch of seats like 29, I do think the Dhillon letter is more about clearly setting out an environment where the whole map doesn't get bogged down in VRA cases by "wiping the board clean".

also, in 2021, if Joe Schmo (R-Suburb) doesn't want his R+14 seat turned into an R+6 marginal that Beto got 47% in, he can make - and win - that argument. in 2025, he's getting a phone call from the White House.

on TX redistricting: can we please dispel with this notion that the TX GOP "maxed out" what they could've gotten in '21? they created 3 new safe D seats, and they tread lightly both because of the legal climate federally and because latino shifts were ~3 years old at that point.

RT @TheoLandsman: @MattZeitlin @daveweigel It is very funny that ‘David Cameron becomes obsessed with pseudo-populist direct democracy as a….