Mark Ungewitter
@mark_ungewitter
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“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say.”. –Marshall McLuhan.
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DXY has ranged from +20% to -20% of purchasing power parity somewhat regularly since 1970. Great long-term perspective from @_rob_anderson.
The U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized in recent weeks after plummeting during the first half of the year. From a PPP perspective, the dollar is no longer overvalued. However, prior secular tops saw the dollar overshoot, dropping to more than 20% undervalued in both 1987 and 2004.
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The de-dollarization trade is well baked, but probably not fully baked, according to this interesting study from @TimmerFidelity.
The one “devil’s advocate” challenge to the otherwise unmistakably bullish narrative driving gold and Bitcoin is the question of how much of this fiscal dominance and de-dollarization playbook is already priced in. The combined value of above-ground gold and Bitcoin is now around
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Does DXY influence SPX/EAFE, or does SPX/EAFE influence DXY? Yes.
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Artistic heuristic.
So, what happens once when the last bite of the Big Yellow Banana is taken?
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Analogs. Where are they when you need them? 🤪.
I overlaid the 2008 analog on every market pullback since then so you can get a sense of the LT opportunity cost of this 'analysis'. $SPY
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More price momentum.
The S&P 500 has now closed above its 20-day moving average for 55 consecutive trading sessions, an impressive streak that reflects the kind of persistent buying pressure typically associated with strong bull market trends. 🔗Read @DeanChristians's Jul 15 "A bullish win streak
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RT @Fullcarry: Not hard to imagine front-end becoming absurdly rich as real-money reduces duration.
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"We learn from history that we do not learn from history.". –Paraphrasing Friedrich Hegel.
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Pause clause.
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