Mark Ungewitter
@mark_ungewitter
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“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say.”
–Marshall McLuhan
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90% downside volume closely following record highs. $STUDY
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Equity prices are characterized by rolling tops (distribution) & spike bottoms (fear of loss). Commodity prices are characterized by rolling bottoms (accumulation) & spike tops (fear of shortage). Taught to me by early mentor, Greg Smith.
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If June 2022 was a cyclical bottom, as increasingly evidenced, it’s not out of character with secular trend since March 2009.
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Don’t fight the Fed, or don’t fight the tape? Yes.
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Amazing how bearish my feed has become after a 4% correction. 🤔
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Note to self. Small-cap underperformance is associated with secular bull markets. H/t
@topstockcharts
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“Market timing, by the way, is a tag some buy-and-hold investors use to put down anything that involves using your brain.” –Jeremy Grantham
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“Bubbles go to unimaginable extremes, then double.” –Doug Noland
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1/ $SPX is oversold and due for a bounce, but chart damage is extensive. All six cases since 1990 in which both NYSE & Nasdaq net new lows exceeded 20% of total issues were associated with cyclical declines.
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Cyclicality is obviously not this steady. But dang, what a great abstraction!
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Breadth thrust, breadth recovery, & nascent price momentum suggest that October 2022 was a 4-year-cycle bottom.
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All bear markets come to an end, but there’s no telling how deep they will run. Fortunately, you don’t need to call a bottom, as price momentum typically confirms the next durable advance.
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How impressive is the post-Oct-27th reversal? There are only nine cases since 1920 in which 14-week RSI rose above 60 from below 40 within five weeks.
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The bigger the base, the higher in space. $AAPL $MSFT
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Large-speculator positioning vs. SPX cyclical bottoms
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Great news! After 40 years in capital markets, I’m retiring from my day job. Hats off to Charter Trust Company, an outstanding employer for the past 13 years.
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Triple 80% upside days have evidenced market bottoms in 3 out of 4 cases since 2002 with a glaring exception on January 2nd, 2009. Never easy, is it?
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Magazine covers are often contrarian signals. Why? Because markets are often thoroughly discounted by the time narratives reach saturation, the point of maximum value for enterprising editors.
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No indicator is perfect, or uniquely prescient, but here’s one that’s likely to confirm the next durable advance.
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No indicator is perfect, or uniquely prescient, but here’s one that’s likely to confirm the next durable advance.
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After an epic 16-year drawdown, rest of world vs. SPX is potentially – repeat potentially – the greatest catch-up trade on earth. Comment: Paradigm shifts happen when they are good and ready to happen.
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When a market refutes a popular narrative, something else is likely afoot. SPX is trading above its pre-SVB and pre-Jackson-Hole highs, discrediting the recessionary bear-market scenario. Important to maintain these levels, in my view.
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Barring a miracle, this model will turn red at today's close.
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Absence of 90% downside volume since January top is unusual given 12% drawdown.
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SPX trend status? Healthy price reversal; lagging breadth profile.
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The run-up since Oct 2022 has featured classic breadth thrust ✅, breadth recovery ✅, and price momentum ✅, suggesting a cyclical advance toward SPX 5400-5600. BTFD ahead?
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Equities are both oversold and dangerous. Why dangerous? Because current oversold is the product of a failed thrust, suggesting unusually bearish underlying trend.
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Post-surgery update. I'm now home and on the mend. Thanks for all the well wishes! 😎
SIGNING OFF FOR A FEW DAYS DUE TO HIP SURGERY.
Returning Thursday/Friday, hopefully. 🏋️♂️
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To my knowledge, the banking sector – until now – has never posted a lower low following breakaway momentum. Adjust expectations accordingly.
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Need more proof? A recovery in 200-day breadth momentum above 50% would support the case for SPX 5400-5600, a.k.a. normal cyclical advance.
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$VIX to $SPX: Buy (infrastructure) rumor, sell (infrastructure) news?
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While SPX seems due for a breather, big-picture indicators keep turning bullish, suggesting that a cyclical advance is underway.
Some good news for the bulls. Margin debt has started to recover from very oversold levels, generating a relatively rare buy signal. Debt remains about $250 billion below the 2021 peak.
@NDR_Research
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Bear markets typically leave no sector unscathed. Is energy staging a descent toward 200dma?
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Cycle history suggests an important bottom in 2022, according to this old study from Louise Yamada.
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SPX has never bottomed before an official recession begins, but has often bottomed before an official recession is announced. $STUDY
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How did $VIX know that Friday was a false breakdown?
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Nasdaq vs. NYSE volume. Late-cycle speculation? Or early cycle thrust?
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If the advance since October 2022 is a bear-market rally, it’s a most unusual case.
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Failed death crosses are bull-market phenomena.
DJIA death cross lasted just 2 days.
50MA 200MA
11/9 33831.12 33813.35
11/10 33822.35 33815.02
11/13 33812.35 33816.81 <--
11/14 33816.07 33822.37 <--
11/15 33827.03 33826.89
11/16 33835.92 33831.16
11/17 33843.34 33835.62
11/20 33853.08 33841.75
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1/ Percentage of SP1500 stocks >50dma now exceeds 90%, indicating multi-cap thrust. Something happening here, folks.
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Russell 2K, arguably a proxy for market breadth, has made higher lows and lower highs since October 2022. A lower low would seriously challenge the cyclical bull-market thesis. H/t
@AriWald
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If the advance since October 2022 is a bear-market rally, it’s a most unusual case.
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1/ Official Zweig thrust was logged on March 31st. Many thanks to
@McClellanOsc
. Below is the official track record, post-decimalization. Definitely not bearish, though perhaps not immediately bullish.
We did get a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal last week, and yes it came on day 10. Historically the record is mixed, though. Some great signals, some meh, some horrible. See the full history (through 2015) at this article:
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If October 2022 was a cyclical bottom, as technical evidence suggests, it would be highly unusual if July 2023 was a cyclical top. Why? Because cyclical advances consume more time. SPX is barely maintaining healthy breadth, however, questioning the cyclical-bull-market thesis.
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“Recognize reality even when you don’t like it – especially when you don’t like it.”
–Charlie Munger
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Note to self. VIX could fall much further, if a cyclical bull market is underway.
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Attempting to forecast a discounting mechanism (S&P 500) with things it discounts (earnings, economic growth, geopolitics, etc.) may be hazardous to your wealth.
#LearnedItTheHardWay
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Took defensive action at today's close based on: 1) atypical post-thrust behavior, outlined below; and 2) sudden weakness in the credit-sensitive financial sector. Further defense may be warranted beneath the December low near SPX 3750, which originated January's 10-day thrust.
The SPX declined 6.9% from its Feb 2 intraday high to Thursday's intraday low. This is more than almost all of the previous post-Breakaway Momentum corrections, so given Friday's bullish outside day Thursday's low of 3928 has become a very significant level.
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Whaley 5-day thrust since 1997. Nine cases, counting successive signals in late-2008 as single case. Most signals launched or confirmed durable advances. Three failures: late-2008, mid-2011, late-2015. H/t
@WalterDeemer
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Big single-day rallies don’t guarantee a new cyclical advance. Breadth thrust, breadth recovery, and/or price momentum are needed to support the case.
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SIGNING OFF FOR A FEW DAYS DUE TO HIP SURGERY.
Returning Thursday/Friday, hopefully. 🏋️♂️
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Dual Hindenburg Omens on NYSE & Nasdaq are associated with cyclical tops. Comments: 1) Four of the seven most recent signals were early; 2) Three prior Nasdaq-only signals have varied in quality (2015 spot on, 2017 far early, 2021 early). $STUDY
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Old options traders never die, they just expire worthless.
–Market proverb
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Small-cap underperformance could run further if history is any guide.
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Despite formidable headwinds, big-picture indicators keep turning bullish.
For some perspective on this, here is every time margin debt dropped by 25% year-over-year then went back to flat.
There is a certain pattern.
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Complete history of Zweig thrust from 1928-2015, from the one and only Tom McClellan.
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Notable quotable:
“If the market does not rally, as it should during bullish seasonal periods, it is a sign that other forces are stronger and that when the seasonal period ends those forces will really have their say.”
–Edson Gould via
@AlmanacTrader
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“When everybody is bearish, they’re probably going to be wrong; when everybody is bullish, they may be right for a while.”
–Burton Crane, as conveyed by
@WalterDeemer
"But AAII net bulls hit an extreme high! That's contrarian bearish."
Response:
1) Smooth out the data
2) Even when the smoothed data hits an extreme, market peak may not occur until months/quarters later (eg. '11, '15, '21)
$SPY $QQQ
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Long-term bonds have plenty of upside if June 2022 was a cyclical bottom. Big if, of course.
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With market breadth bordering bear-market territory, stocks must rally soon to sustain a cyclical advance. SPX 200dma near 4200 is a plausible line in the sand. Add in seasonal factors, and Mr. Market is dishing up a classic case of brinksmanship with great potential for whipsaw.
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Pring-Turner stage analysis is a useful construct, linking stock, bond, & commodity cycles to fluctuations in the real economy. Guessing that stage 1 is currently underway, while acknowledging the potential for variability & overlap in a construct of this nature.
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1/ My work is influenced by many great analysts, but I’d like to highlight
@WalterDeemer
. Walt has been a cornerstone of institutional market strategy since the 1960s. He is both dedicated and kindhearted, not to mention his rare wit and good humor.
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1/ More evidence of new cyclical advance. Price momentum has turned favorable by this measure.
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Sharp reversal in Fed-sensitive 2- to 7-year yields (a.k.a. belly of the curve) suggests that the Fed is done tightening. Terminal rate hikes have been a tailwind for stocks, unless a recession lies directly ahead.
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Note to self. The first indication of extreme put/call complacency following a bear market is not bearish. Sentiment thrust, anyone?
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“Does it really matter whether the S&P 500 is down 19.9% or 20.1%? I prefer the old-school definition of a bear market: nerve-racking.”
–Howard Marks
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How is 10-day thrust holding up? Near the low end of the historic range, according to this great study from
@twillo1
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1/ The last time a cyclical advance featured super-narrow leadership (basis net 52-week highs) was October 1998 through March/September 2000. This suggests an analogous top as soon as March 2024, if October 2022 was in fact a cyclical bottom. 🧵
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HYG/IEI is a reasonable proxy for a range of financial conditions. Who knew?
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Comment: market breadth. Percentage of SPX stocks >200dma is pushing the limit of what has constituted normal early-cycle behavior since 2009.
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“Don’t confuse a bull market with brains.” –Humphrey Neill
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Three varieties of price momentum suggest SPX 5500 or higher. Different this time?
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Deviation from trend (big picture). SPX has now reached its 2-sigma Bollinger band vs. 200wma. First cases following cyclical bear markets are flagged in white. Cyclical tops are flagged in red. Except for the 2020 pandemic top, the minimum follow-on gain was 9% over 10 months.
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