Bom fcst of MJO over Indian Ocean

Three among five models agree on convection moving up affecting south peninsular India after mid Oct due to fcst of #MJO in ph 2-3 over Indian ocean. @Indiametdept @NOAA models are outliers while @ECMWF @JMA_kishou @BOM_au are in consensus. #Kerala #TamilNadu #northeastmonsoon

Seasonal east-West trough likely to be established over south peninsula by Oct18. #NEM2025 #northeastmonsoon @ECMWF @NOAA

https://t.co/AdSXfEUb5x

@ECMWF @NOAA

Rains likely to spread across the south peninsula as system moves NW and the wave propagates Northward. Overlapping between SW monsoon and #NEM is possible as seen in some past years. #WeatherUpdate #rainalert #NIOD #LaNina #MJO

Northward propagating BSISO likely to kick off the NE monsoon in Kerala and SE TN by mid oct.MJO in ph 2-3 to trigger formation of multiple cyclonic gyres over IO.A CYCL in SE Arabian sea by mid oct followed by a likely system in SW bay by 27th Oct moving to N.TN-S.Andhra @Ec

If one of these #Hurricanes gets closer to Washington, then Trump's hair would be standing up straight. On a serious note, another storm could form close to SE US coast around Oct 7th & move along east coast affecting upto long island and connecticut by oct 10. @ECMWF #USA #94L

Strong pull effect from bay system starting to affect southern & central kerala from early morning with light to moderate rains. Rains likely to increase as day progresses. @eumetsat #WeatherAlert #rainalert

DC : @NOAA @ECMWF #Kerala #Tamilnadu #NIOD #LaNina #NEM

As expected, both EPS and GEFS fcst above normal rains for east coast and Kerala due to westward movement of systems, but TN is not fcst to get much, why ? Becoz Negative Dipole is not positive for TN rains.Anomalous westerlies over Indian Ocean is not favourable for TN.

East-west trough lay over central bay extended from Maharashtra to Thailand with an EMBD CYCL. Rains likely over Andhra, rayalaseema, telengana belt. @UWCIMSS #monsoon #WeatherUpdate #rainalert

correction -emerging

These systems and disturbances track west ward and emergency in to bay bringing rains on east coast. 2020 saw late rains in TN during Nov-Dec which made NEM surplus by season end.

https://t.co/CFb0BbrfN5).

LaNina years see more westwards movement & landfall of west Pacific systems and disturbances on SE Asia during Sep-Dec, due to active MT and weaker subtropical high. DC : @NOAA #LaNina #NIOD #monsoon Full article link is in comments

Intense rains over east coast, CEI and parts of Northern plains and mod. rains for SW coast. #Andhrapradesh #Odisha #Westbengal

N-S trough likely merges with ERW wave over south bay forming east-west trough moving northward by 21st.Remnant CYCL from SCS merges into trough by 27th with a mod.probability of intensifying into Depression in NW bay & moving to Andhra-Odisha coasts. @ECMWF @NOAA #WeatherUpdate

DC @cyclonicwx

Latest OISST anomaly shows a Nino 3.4 value of -0.5°C, touching the LaNiña threshold. If this persists and atmosphere–ocean coupling occurs in about 2 to 3 weeks, then #LaNiña is likely to be declared in October. DC: @NOAA #ECMWF #MonsoonAlert #NEM2025