LucidTalk
@LucidTalk
Followers
11,203
Following
1,545
Media
1,856
Statuses
20,326
A professionally accredited Polling and Market Research company operating in N. Ireland, Ireland, & the UK. Member of the British Polling Council & UK MRS.
Belfast, Northern Ireland
Joined March 2012
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
#Eurovision2024
• 820630 Tweets
Ireland
• 187820 Tweets
Switzerland
• 108232 Tweets
Flamengo
• 94955 Tweets
Corinthians
• 92516 Tweets
#AMVCA10
• 86181 Tweets
Reece James
• 81112 Tweets
Italia
• 62754 Tweets
Angelina
• 57366 Tweets
#ESC2024
• 54275 Tweets
Irlanda
• 53282 Tweets
Slimane
• 51829 Tweets
STEPHEN
• 39616 Tweets
#ESCita
• 37088 Tweets
Suiza
• 36275 Tweets
Francia
• 35866 Tweets
Nemo
• 35102 Tweets
Lorran
• 33861 Tweets
#الشباب_الاهلي
• 30138 Tweets
Paul Skenes
• 24048 Tweets
Croatia
• 23942 Tweets
Austria
• 23848 Tweets
Romero
• 23251 Tweets
Finland
• 22929 Tweets
De La Cruz
• 21568 Tweets
Estonia
• 21385 Tweets
Lyrical Joe
• 19486 Tweets
Armenia
• 18318 Tweets
Olly
• 16227 Tweets
Grecia
• 14593 Tweets
Paulinho
• 14454 Tweets
Cássio
• 14314 Tweets
Gerson
• 11784 Tweets
Breath of Life
• 10270 Tweets
Baby Lasagna
• 10201 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
✅JOIN THE LUCIDTALK(LT) online NI OPINION PANEL✅
NI Lifestyle, Health, Politics, Business, & more.. Give your views & opinions (confidentially & securely), and win shopping voucher prizes at the same time! Not yet a member of our panel?, then join here:
4
7
29
I see
@stephennolan
is talking about surveys again and mentions YouGov and Ipsos Mori - LucidTalk are partners with these 2 companies on the British Polling Council, and like them follow all the strict regulations required for representative polling.
@BBCNolan
@dt_ni
28
50
416
To:
@BBCTalkback
..re. David Campbell, he's incorrect in stating that the 'loyalist working-class' areas didn't turn-out to vote. LT's analysis shows the turnout from these areas was well up on 2017 - and this was a factor that boosted the TUV vote-share up to 8%.
@williamcrawley
26
78
381
This is nonsense, we did not say this. We said we restrict responses in a small No. of cases, & areas, from IP addresses from where we are/were receiving a No. of responses with similar answers. Its this restriction that works out at 1.7 responses on average per IP address.
The former DUP strategy chief has described as “eyebrow raising” the fact that online pollsters LucidTalk get an average of 1.7 responses from each single IP address:
0
0
3
22
26
229
..Latest GB-Mainland polling from YouGov - more Britons (GB residents) would be upset if the Falkland Islands or Gibraltar left the UK (or ceased being British), than if NI left the UK...
How would mainland Britons feel if [x] left the UK?
Wales
😭 Upset: 46%
😴 Not bothered: 36%
😃 Pleased: 10%
Scotland
😭 43%
😴 34%
😃 16%
Falkland Islands
😭 35%
😴 46%
😃 9%
Gibraltar
😭 33%
😴 48%
😃 9%
Northern Ireland
😭 32%
😴 43%
😃 15%
100
97
307
39
92
227
Results from tonight’s BBC NI 'Political Leaders' post-programme poll – 731 in a balanced NI representative sample. 3 questions, all details and results are on each of the graphics. NB This type of poll has a slightly higher error than our standard NI-Wide polls.
25
72
219
Bit sad to see the English reaction to the result tonight e.g. the referee etc., & ‘we were the better team’! etc. France scored two good goals in ‘live’ play - England scored one penalty, & missed one. France were the better team. Good luck to them in the semis.
23
16
167
LT expect debate about polls, but not inaccuracies: (a) There has never been any LT poll showing majority support in NI for a united Ireland (UI), and (b) you say LT are the only pollster - what about the 2020/2021 UI Ref poll results from Survation, Kantar, & Savanta-Comres? 1/6
My column on the dominance of
@LucidTalk
in political polling in Northern Ireland. In particular this is a problem on polling around the constitutional question because its findings add to border poll demands yet are far from face-to-face survey results
31
9
44
19
23
152
To:
@StephenNolan
- you have one vote, your 1st preference, - the 2nd, 3rd, 4th choices etc., are transfer preferences - not votes.
@bbcradioulster
6
15
146
Media will always put a spin on poll/survey results - you could equally say ‘Union on a knife-edge with only 52% support' - and go on to say that means 48% support a united Ireland or may be considering it!
@BelTel
@SuzyJourno
A new survey published in the
@BelTel
finds that less than a third of people here would support a united Ireland if a border poll was held tomorrow. Is the Union safer than many think?
71
18
53
19
46
140
First full tally (ie Exit poll) from S. BELFAST, it projects SDLP by what can only be described as a landslide - it could be a 9,000+ majority.
2
51
143
LT DEC18 NI OPINION PANEL 'Tracker' POLL (1,334 responses, NI weighted/representative). Graphics of four results from the poll: (1) A 2nd EURef?, (2) NI special status after Brexit?, (3) Should there be a NI Border poll?, & (4) A NI Border poll based on various Brexit scenarios?
7
108
138
News (unconfirmed) from Dublin is the Times Ireland poll is showing Fianna Fáil No. 1, with SF in 2nd place, & Fine Gael in 3rd place - big news if this is true! More details later.
10
54
138
PM Theresa May said in the HoC this afternoon that ‘polling shows that support for a united Ireland would be higher in the event of a No-Deal Brexit’ – she, & her team, must have reviewed LT’s Dec18 NI poll (the only current NI polling research about this issue) – see below:
9
79
127
Latest Scottish independence polling - pro independence now pulls well ahead on 56%. It’s 56% Yes to independence, to 44% No. This is the highest pro Scottish independence score for several years…
4
42
127
51% is not a 'significant majority' - it means 49% said either 'Don't Know' or pro united Ireland. You can't make assumptions about the Don't Knows (DKs) in polls, & you can't do projections exc. the DKs once they go above about 12% because of the increasing cumulative error.
Link to research referred to on
@bbctheview
tonight that shows a significant majority in favour of the Union - 51% to 30%.
That lead could become unassailable if unionists focus on making NI work better & reaching out to the centre ground
50
17
54
19
28
117
To
@eastantrimMP
, there is no evidence that online polls discriminate against certain socio-economic groups eg 'working class' - email address registration is now nearly 100% across all 'classes'. + All LT polls are weighted to NI demographics to ensure they are NI representative
17
28
111
Wouldn't be allowed by the Electoral Comm.
@SteveBakerHW
. The 'trick' is to run the referendum when all the polls, opinion etc., show that the result is going to be a comfortable 60%+ result (like the Rep. of I refs). But all Refs have to be run on 50%+1, that's the only way.
A united Ireland referendum should need the support of a super-majority of voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic, Britain’s Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker has said, citing his own experience during the UK’s Brexit campaign
132
13
20
17
28
112
@KilclooneyJohn
A classical inaccurate analysis of polling & election scores. You can’t just assume that because people don’t vote for parties who are pro United-Ireland (UI), that they are all automatically against a UI. - NB the argument also applies in reverse.
3
1
111
To:
@BeattieDoug
- you can't 'Fact-Check' poll results. Poll results are a snapshot in time - and you can't tell whether they are right or wrong until there is an actual follow-on election or referendum. In that context, LT has the track record..
@bbcradioulster
#bbctalkback
15
15
109
Latest Rof Ireland poll: from Behaviour and Attitudes for the Sunday Times. Sinn Fein now leading:
Sinn Fein: 32% (+2)
Fine Gael: 30% (+1)
Fianna Fail: 19% (-1)
Green P: 5% (-1)
Labour: 3% (nc)
Soc Dem: 1% (nc)
Sol-PBP 1% (nc)
Indeps/Others: 9% (nc)
Poll Period: Sept 3-15
1
47
104
More results from the LucidTalk (LT) Autumn22 NI 'Tracker' poll are covered in today's BELFAST TELEGRAPH (
@BelTel
). Here are the results from Q5: "If Stormont were to close for a period of time, what would be your preferred government arrangement for Northern Ireland?".
11
41
102
We accept this fully from the
@allianceparty
and
@naomi_long
- and LT accept it may have been better to clarify this situation 'offline' (and not on Twitter!). We accept also that it can get confusing if others use base poll data and do their own projections.
I appreciate
@LucidTalk
clarifying no suggestion of dishonesty in
@allianceparty
graphs.
Lucid Talk did the poll: others did the analysis. We have reflected that in later tweets.
Those accusing us of fake news or lying are entirely unjustified in doing so.
13
27
151
27
39
105
To:
@BBCTalkback
&
@williamcrawley
: There is no proof that Alliance voters are majority pro-union - what about the significant No. (10,000+) who voted Alliance in West Tyrone, Mid-Ulster, and Newry & Armagh at the 2019 General election? Are they all pro-union?
27
16
100
Latest Rep of Ireland poll from
@ireland_thinks
for the Sunday Independent. Following their poll increase in the NI election- Sinn Fein up 1 point…
5
27
101
Full 'political-party score' headline results from the LT NI Spring21 Tracker poll - as reported in today's Belfast Telegraph. The
@BelTel
incs. analyses and reports from
@SuzyJourno
@garethvcross
&
@JonathanTonge
. NB the changes shown are vs the LT Winter21 poll (Jan21).
13
36
99
Lib Dems now predicted to win Tiverton & Honiton by double digit margin. This is an amazing swing - one of the biggest in history. Apparently all 3 main parties now believe Lib-Dems have won.
4
29
99
LucidTalk(LT)
@BelTel
Autumn22 NI poll: Q1 (political-party scores) - Demographic analysis by Gender and Age-Group: e.g. 44% of the NI 18-24 age-group say they would vote SF in a NI Assembly election, Alliance vote tends to mostly female, Unionist voters tend to be male etc...
24
42
90
To: the LucidTalk NI Opinion Panel - as you've probably seen, LucidTalk had another 'good election', with our final pre NI Assembly election poll coming in very close to the final results. Thanks to our poll-takers for helping make this happen! More reports & analyses next week!
8
11
92
The latest LucidTalk NI Political-Party poll scores - LT NI 'Winter 2021' NI Tracker poll (2,295 responses NI-Wide - poll-period: 22/1 to 25/1/21), as covered in today's
@BelTel
..
10
36
91
On
#SundayPoliticsNI
-
@SuzyJourno
is correct, the only way to run a referendum is 50%+1. Any other way would be a recipe for massive instability.
@MarkCarruthers7
@casualgardener1
1/2
5
14
86
Actual figures from the latest RofIreland poll from RedC (
@REDCResearch
) for the
@businessposthq
. Sinn Fein up 4 points:
SF: 33% (+4)
FG: 25% (-3)
FF: 12% (-1)
SD: 6% (+1)
LP: 5% (nc)
GP: 4% (-1)
PBP/S: 3% (nc)
AÚ: 2% (nc)
I/O: 10% (nc)
Changes are vs September 2021 poll.
10
32
85
..First demographic results from the Belfast Telegraph (
@BelTel
) LT Winter23 NI 'Tracker' poll (3,662 responses, 1,499 sample) - Q1: "Who would you vote for at a NI Assembly election?", by Gender and Age-Group. e.g. note SF's voter-base tends to be younger, and DUP's older etc...
28
31
88
Re.
@BBCSpotlightNI
- to say 70% of NI non-voters(NVs) are pro-union is dodgy. NVs are, by definition, not engaged, so how can they accurately say how they would vote in a future NI border poll? At the v. least, there is a much larger error with NVs research, & poll Cos say this.
10
14
85
Paddy Power (
@paddypower
) seem to be having a go at some humorous wind-ups for the England fans, ahead of tomorrows big Ireland-England rugby game at the Aviva. Here are a few posters that are up in Dublin at the moment:
9
53
82
Following todays S. Ireland referendum result, we've had several requests to publish the results from our last NI polling re. the abortion issue - this was Dec 2016. See below:
7
79
87
With 70% of the 1st counts in, it looks as if LTs last poll (April) had the results pretty close. We may have underestimated Alliance & overestimated UUP by 1-2%, but everything else pretty spot-on.
@BelTel
@Tomtomskk
@SuzyJourno
5
9
82
From the
@BelTel
✅ Winter24 LT NI 'Tracker' poll (Poll: 9th-12th Feb, 3,207 NI representative sample) ✅ - Do you have an aspiration towards a united Ireland, either now, or in the near future? By (a) NI results, (b) Alliance/Green/Others, (c) SDLP voters, (d) Non-Voters. 1/2
28
36
83
To:
@JBuckleyMLA
, & your comments on BBC Sunday Politics - here's our track record from the last NI election...
@MarkCarruthers7
@SuzyJourno
1/2
4
15
77
Latest Rof Ireland poll just in - from Behaviour & Attitudes (
@banda_ie
). Sinn Fein in the lead...
SF: 32% (+2)
FG: 27% (-4)
FF: 22% (+3)
LAB: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-2)
S-PBP: 2% (=)
SD: 1% (-1)
Polling 18/19 Dec. Changes are vs Oct poll.
10
24
77
We always report on all Northern Ireland (NI) Polling, not just LT's!, so here is the latest poll from LORD ASHCROFT POLLS: - 4 key results below: NoDealvsBackstop, SameNILaws vs NoBorder, NoDealBrexit-impact on NI, & NI Border Poll-How would you vote?
10
49
74
Gee whiz
@BenLowry2
has changed his tune! - a 1-2 years back he was rubbishing LT poll results saying that only 20%-25% would support a united Ireland. Now he's saying things like the 'others' would decide it etc...
@williamcrawley
#BBCtalkback
@bbcradioulster
6
8
72
SCOTLAND ELECTION UPDATE: Latest 'Scores-on-the-doors' are SNP 63, Cons 14, Labour 10, LibDems 4, Green 3. So SNP+Green has passed the 65 seat point (for a majority), & means therefore there will definitely be a pro-independence majority in the new Scottish parliament.
6
13
74
Latest Rep of Ireland poll our tonight - from
@REDCResearch
for the
@businessposthq
. Sinn Fein surge continues, up 2pts to 36% vote share - their vote share now exceeds Fine Gael & Fianna Fáil combined…
2
25
75
More results from the Belfast Telegraph-LT Spring23 NI 'Tracker' poll (3,557 responses, 1,040 weighted NI rep. sample) - Q3: "Should the Stormont institutions be reformed to remove a veto from a single party?" - by NI results, DUP only, Sinn Fein only, Allnce/Grn/Othrs only...
16
30
77
Poll Results Set (7): LT-'Ireland Thinks' April 2021
@BBCSpotlightNI
NI poll (2,845 NI Rep sample - MOE 2.5%) – Q3 Results (If a Border Poll were to take place - Timing): by (a) TOTAL NI Results, (b) by DUP voters, (c) by SF voters, & (d) by Alliance/Green/Others voters:
3
36
72
Latest Rep of Ireland poll, from Red C for the Sunday Business Post. Sinn Fein drop 4 points, Fine Gael up 3 points:
SF: 31% (-4)
FG: 24% (+3)
FF: 15% (-1)
GP: 5% (+1)
SD: 4% (nc)
LP: 4% (nc)
PBP-S: 3% (nc)
AÚ: 2% (+1)
Indeps/Os: 11% (nc)
November 2022
Changes are vs October 2022
17
20
75
Re.:
@bbcradioulster
#bbctalkback
- talk about stating the obvious. Obviously people in border counties will have more connection with NI than people in Cork. People in Carlisle or Berwick will have more connection with people in Scotland than people in Kent or Plymouth.
12
10
74
LTs latest NI Poll results, with full analysis & commentary, is on the front page of today’s (18/8) Sunday Times:
15
64
71
..a reply to
@BenLowry2
re. his column in today's
@News_Letter
. Its important to be factually correct when reporting poll results...
@abushe7
@BenLowry2
Ben, its 19% 'would, or possibly would, support a united Ireland' because of Brexit, - you said the 19% 'backed the union until Brexit but now want a united Ireland'. You should correct this - here are the actual poll results with the exact Q wording:
6
10
51
8
20
71
Latest RofIreland poll - from
@ireland_thinks
for the Irish Mail on Sunday (
@IrishMailSunday
):
Sinn Fein - 28%
Fine Gael - 25.6 %
Fianna Fáil - 14.7%
Social Democrats - 5.7%
Labour - 4.9%
Greens - 4.5%
Aontú - 4.1%
PBP / SOL - 3.1%
Others - 9.4%
6
28
71
As covered on
@U105radio
this morning, here are the results re. NI Political Party support from our Feb18 NI Tracker Poll - also compares to LT Sept17 poll: DUP down 1.9pts, SF up 1.2pts, TUV up 1pt. Also incs age-group analysis. More LT Feb18 poll results in coming days.
8
70
67
To:
@bbctalkback
: Peter Shirlow is wrong - ALL NI polls and surveys over the past 7 years show the pro-UK (ie NItostayintheUK) vote running around 50% (i.e. NI Life & Times, LT, Ashcroft, Liverpool, etc..) - that means the 'other 50%' is either pro-united Ireland or Don't knows.
7
24
69
+ if 'only 22% in NI support a United Ireland' - that means 150,000+ regular SF & SDLP voters would have to vote pro NIintheUK to make such a result happen in a NI Border Poll (that's the 11+ type maths). That could be true, but I know what I think! 2/2
1
12
65
Results from last weeks LT NI poll reported in today’s Sunday Times (
@SunTimesIreland
) - more results later today & tomorrow: .
0
35
68
To:
@JimAllister
- LT polls is a member of the British Polling Council & abides by all it’s rules. + NB LT predicted the NI EU Referendum result to within 1% - NISun newspaper (20/6/16) ie 3 days before the EURef.
@StephenNolan
@ClaireByrneLive
@BBCNolan
3
16
68
SCOTLAND ELECTION FINAL UPDATE: FINAL SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT SEATS:
SNP ~ 64 (+1)
Conservative ~ 31 (nc)
Labour ~ 22 (-2)
Green ~ 8 (+2)
Lib Dem ~ 4 (-1)
So that’s a wrap!
SNP 1 short of an overall majority. Pro independence seat Nos = 72
6
11
64
To:
@BBCTalkback
,
@GRobinsonDUP
- The only polls that operate to British Polling Council standards in NI - are LT polls (i.e. they're the 'gold standard' if you like), 1/2
6
15
64
LT's latest NI poll results re. Brexit (Jan19) were covered on last nights (18/1) UK national
@Channel4News
. Further results and more coverage to come.
2
45
63
LT
@thesundaytimes
Poll Results - Q2: 'Should there be a NI Border poll within the next 5 years?' has been widely covered in the media in the last 2 days. Here are the main results: (a) TOTAL NI Results, & by (b) Unionists only, (c) Nats/Repubs only, (d) Allnce/Green/Others only:
7
48
64
...+ you don't analyse a surgeons precise methods, its the outcome of the operation that's important, i.e. regardless of the methodology its the track record that counts...
@LeeReynoldsUKNI
@AK_FL
@BenLowry2
5
5
60
From the Financial Times - The UK's economic inequalities are the worst in the world. Note that in the UK, Camden & City of London is at the top, and Co. Down is at the bottom!
11
50
65
LT nail it again - Our 'Summer22'
@BelTel
poll (August22) had an 'identity' question, which has turned out to be close to the 2021 census figures just released. This proves our methodologies are robust & correct, & therefore other LT poll results must be fairly accurate as well!
8
10
67
To:
@DUPleader
(on
@ViewFrmStormont
) & today's Bel Tel LT poll - what's this "This was an internet poll & we have to keep that in mind?". LT run their polls the same as world-leading poll Cos like YouGov, Opinium, etc., & like them we are members of the British Polling Council!
3
17
63
Belfast City Council - Black Mountain DEA - 7 seats. 1st Count. Quota 1757. It will be 6 Sinn Fein (out of 6), & 1 PBP. This is great vote management from m SF.
7
25
63
& here it is.. - The results from tonight's LT BBC1 Post-Programme Poll - 841 responses in final NI representative sample: Poll Q1 - 'Who Won?', and Poll Q2 - Grade each of the 5 political leaders Excellent, Good, Neutral, Not Good, Very Poor.
9
40
65
More results from the
@BelTel
LT Spring22 NI poll - Election issues: "Which of these issues concerns you most?: NI Protocol, NI Health Service, Covid, Cost of Living, War in Ukraine" by (a) TOTAL NI Results, (b) DUP voters only, (c) TUV only, & (d) Sinn Fein only. 1/2
16
30
62
LT POLL RESULTS: From the Jan19 LT NI-Wide 'Tracker' poll re. Brexit as covered on
@U105radio
and Channel 4 news yesterday (19/1). Q5 full results - ie impact of Brexit on the Border/UI etc. Results shown by Total NI, Unionists, Nats/Republicans, and Alliance/Green/Others.
2
63
60
LT's Oct19 NI 'Tracker' poll (2nd results set): 2,312 sample, Poll Period: 21st-23rd Oct 2019. NI representative audited/weighted, error +/-2.6% at 95% confidence. POLL Q: LIKELIHOOD of UNITED IRELAND: by Total NI results, Unionists, Nats/Republicans, Neutral(Alliance/Grn/Othrs).
3
49
59
Even if Jeffrey Donaldson resigned now, it’s unlikely there’ll be a by-election. They’ll wait for the general election - even if that’s not until November. That’s the parliamentary standard if there’s only 6-9 months until the election.
@bbcradioulster
@williamcrawley
11
20
61
Final Tally/Exit Poll for South Belfast:
Green - 8.9%
Alliance (2) - 24.6%
TUV - 4.7%
Sinn Fein - 20.9%
UUP - 6.4%
SDLP (2) - 12.3%
DUP - 13.8%
Others - 8.4%
So, 3 safe seats - Sinn Fein, DUP, & Alliance, - then the last 2 seats will be between Alliance, SDLP, & Green.
8
26
61
..You didn't bring this point up in your programme this morning Stephen, did you?
@StephenNolan
@dt_ni
1
10
56
@BenLowry2
Ben, its 19% 'would, or possibly would, support a united Ireland' because of Brexit, - you said the 19% 'backed the union until Brexit but now want a united Ireland'. You should correct this - here are the actual poll results with the exact Q wording:
6
10
51
Latest
@ireland_thinks
Rep. of Ireland poll finds same results re. Political Leadership ratings as LTs Winter24
@BelTel
NI ‘Tracker’ poll - Michelle O’Neill leads the field…
3
17
58
That's it - its 'in the can'! Results from the quarterly LucidTalk Autumn21 NI 'Tracker' poll (3,298 NI rep. sample) will be in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (
@BelTel
) starting from tomorrow (Saturday 13/11) - Topics: NI political-party support, political leader ratings, and more...
11
17
58
Re. West Belfast - a briefing of the candidates is taking place about the finish of a ‘sub-stage’ of a count. This probably indicates that Gerry Carroll has made it for the last seat. So W. Belfast is (as before) 4 Sinn Fein, 1 PBP.
1
12
56
@SJAMcBride
+ Never mind the polls, that headline & Goves comment doesn’t pass a ‘common sense test’ - that 21% figure means that over 100,000 regular SF/SDLP voters would go out & vote pro NIinUK in a Border poll (that’s the maths of that situation). Really? Does that seem realistic to you?
4
30
55
To:
@BBCTalkback
, the only way to run any referendum (not just here) is 50%+1. That’s not a political point, it’s a technical point. The Electoral authorities eg the Electoral Commission wouldn’t want it any other way. To run it another way would be a recipe for huge instability.
5
21
52
Latest from Foyle, - for the anoraks out there on a late Saturday night: SDLP 321 short of quota, then DUP or UUP, with DUP currently ahead by 349 both well short of quota. It’s all very close & tight!!
9
10
58
@danobrien20
@ChrisHazzardSF
+ If only 22% of NI voted for a UI in an actual border poll, that would mean 150,000 regular SF/SDLP voters would either have to not vote, or vote pro NIinUK. Really?? If you believe that you're living on another planet.
4
22
55
LT Poll Results: LTs Westminster election seat predictor model results - % seat win probabilities by party for NIs 18 Westminster seats - based on LTs Nov19 NI Tracker poll, previous LT polls, and NI demographic data. (NB Please read accompanying notes as part of reviewing).
14
50
56
Its 'in the can'! - Results from our last pre NI Assembly election poll (poll-period: 22nd-24th April - 1,708 NI representative sample) will be in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (
@BelTel
) from tomorrow Friday 29/4: inc. NI political-party support, & 2nd/lower vote preference analyses.
6
12
54
RTE Exit Poll - Dublin: Green Party to top poll, Mark Durkan on only 5% so no chance of a seat.
6
20
55
From the LucidTalk(LT) Autumn22 NI poll, as covered in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (
@BelTel
): 'DUP as DFM under SF FM?' - Non-Unionists only polled, by (a) Full NI Results (Non-Unionists only), (b) SF voters only, (c) SDLP voters only, (d) Alliance/Green/Others voters only...
13
17
54
To
@BBCNolan
- the figures did not exclude ‘middle ground’, they’re in the poll, the actual figures in the Ashcroft poll were 46% pro UI, 45% pro NIinUK, 9% Don’t Know.
@StephenNolan
5
18
49
SBelfast: T/O in middle class areas noticeably up (58-64%), in working class PUL areas same as NIA16 ie 48-53%. Could be good for Allnce/Grn
4
62
53
Taking into account today's NI political developments - ..Key results from our
@BelTel
Jan22 NI 'Tracker' Poll (3,112 respondents, NI Rep.) - Q3: "Your view about the NI Protocol?" - by (a) Total NI results, (b) Unionists only, (c) Nats/Repubs only, (d) Alliance/Grn/Othrs only...
12
32
50
Latest RofIreland poll - from
@ireland_thinks
for the Irish Mail on Sunday:
SF: 30% (nc)
FG: 24% (-1)
FF: 15% (+1)
SD: 6% (+1)
LP: 6% (-1)
GP: 4% (nc)
PBP-S: 3% (-1)
AÚ: 3% (-1)
I/O: 9% (+2)
21st August, 2021.
+/- June 2021.
Sample: 1,203
2
19
53
Results from our 'mini' poll of Conservative 'voters' (from the LT NI Opinion Panel) in NI elections, and/or in LT polls since 2015 - asking views re. the Cons leadership contest. 211 'qualified' to be invited, 167 responses. K. Badenoch comes out ahead with NI Conservatives! 1/2
5
13
54
@BenLowry2
You can't accurately poll non-voters - and no reputable polling or market research Co. would present such research. How do non-voters (with low/no experience of voting) know how they are going to vote in a currently non-existent Border poll, about a hypothetical united Ireland.
3
4
51
..Re. last night's
@bbctheview
- worth clarifying one poll result i.e. the Poll Q re. impact of Brexit on NI's constitutional position - here are the actual full results with the full Poll Q wording. NB Results are also analysed by Unionists, Nats/Repubs, Alliance/Green/Others...
7
19
52
..Just in, latest RofIreland poll from RedC for the Business Post. It’s neck&neck at the top between Sinn Fein & Fine Gael, as FF drop -3:
SF: 29% (+2)
FG: 29% (nc)
FF: 13% (-3)
SD: 6% (+1)
LP: 4% (+1)
GP: 3% (-2)
S-PBP: 2% (-1)
AÚ: 2% (nc)
I/O: 12% (+2)
Changes are vs 28/1/21.
3
22
53
@SJAMcBride
& if you think only 19% would support pro-UI in an actual Border poll, then that would mean 150K+ regular SF voters would have to vote pro NIinUK, or stay at home, to make that sort of result possible. You can believe what you want to - I know what I believe!
2
5
49
..& its noticeable that
@BenLowry2
doesn’t mention the other NI Border opinion polls from world-renowned names like e.g. Savanta-Comres & Kantar - probably because they don’t fit-in with the political narrative he wants to project!
4
9
50
Latest seat projections - looks like SF will be hitting late 30s, perhaps even forty seats - amazing performance! FF & FG early to mid 40s. There’s even a possibility that FG will edge FF in the end - disappointing for FF who were hoping to be well ahead in the final seat count.
4
23
49
1st indications from our South Belfast Tally/Exit poll: 3 safe seats - SF (probably top the poll), DUP, Alliance (in that order), then the last 2 seats will be between Alliance, SDLP, & Green. - favourites would be Alliance & SDLP. NB SDLP vote down on last NIA election 2017.
5
15
51
Tomorrow's "TIMES Scotland" front page - showing the latest
@YouGov
polling for Scotland. SNP on 57%, & projected to win 74 seats in next years Scottish Parliament elections (ie a majority). + 53% support for Scottish independence (up 2% compared to last YouGov poll).
5
28
52
Following on from today's (30/1)
@BelTel
coverage of the LT Winter23 NI 'Tracker' poll (3,662 responses, 1,499 sample) - here are the poll's Political-Leader rating results: from +100=Excellent to -100=Very Bad, & includes changes from the LT NI Autumn22 poll...
5
20
52