शिक्षित बेरोज़गार
@kaul_vivek
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My fifth book, Bad Money: Inside the NPA Mess and How It Threatens the Indian Banking System, has been published today.
Please spend your Good Money to buy Bad Money to help me earn Some Money to be able to write more books on Money.
You can buy it here:
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All the editors who have suddenly started to love Lalu Yadav, did not grow up in Bihar and Jharkhand of 1990s.They were safe in South Mumbai and Lutyens Delhi. I grew up in a city which had a 15 day powercut in May 1992. Those were the days of Lalu Yadav.
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This has two things that takes to make a succesful influencer these days. Lack of knowledge and the ability to speak with confidence to sell that lack of knowledge as expertise.
Quantum Computing explained in "India's smartest podcast".
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Middle class Indian men and their great wet dream of a benevolent dictator.
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It amazes me that so many senior editors fell for the 86 lakh doses given yesterday.
No one even bothered to check how many doses were given, day before yesterday.
Narrative management at its very best.
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Airline pricing in India is being decided by the government, but vaccine prices are left to the free market.
Talk about priorities.
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Dr YV Reddy, the former RBI Governor, when he was RBI Governor used to say, "everywhere around the world, the future is uncertain; in India, even the past is uncertain."
The revision of GDP data today proved just that... Read on.
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The government is ready to sell IDBI Bank to LIC. This is wrong at multiple levels. Let's try and understand the points one by one.
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Diamonds initially attracted a GST of 3%. Was later reduced to 0.25%. Branded sanitary napkins continue to be taxed at a GST of 12%. This should tell you the priorities of the GST Council.
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Manmohan Singh vs Narendra Modi: The real India growth story.
My essay in
@livemint
.
Five years back, I had never thought that on economic parameters, the Manmohan era will end up looking better than the Modi era.
But such is life.
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Time to share this again.
Do read, share and WhatsApp.
Petrol and Diesel Prices are High Due to Lower Corporate Taxes, Not Because of Oil Bonds.
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So, I have been digging on the budget. While, everyone has written about the assumptions of next year's numbers being shaky, the thing is even the revised estimates of this year are very shaky. A thread on that.
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I guess it's time to say this again.
Parveen Babi was the one and only Gujarat model.
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Every corporate chieftain giving the budget a 9 out 10 should definitely be asked, bhaisahab/behanji, ek mark kiss cheez ka kaat liya?
Will they reply? Handwrting saaf nahi thi. Padhne main dikkat hui bahut.
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When the central government decides not to pay for vaccines for a large section of the population and expects you to play fastest finger first every day, but is fine with paying for research on chanting and constructing a new building for itself, u know where the priorities lie.
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People who come on my timeline looking for good things on the Indian economy because they want to feel positive, best not to follow me. There are many other accounts which will make u feel positive all the time. It's not my job to keep u happy. Watch Govinda movies of the 1990s.
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Don't believe the WHATSAPP University, a famous economist, a CA and a soft-spoken fund manager.
The US Economy Contracted by 9.1% & not 32%. India’s Economy Contracted by 23.9%.
This is 5th-standard math, if you understand compounding.
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Techno-Solutionism at its peak.
First try to solve a problem which does not 'really' exist because money is available to be burnt and then after too much money has been burnt blame the customer.
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Before declaring War, Putin called up a few individuals in New Okhla Industrial Development Authority, for key inputs.
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A lot of people who lead high-flying lives in cities will have trouble understanding the latest GDP growth of 4.4%, with private consumption growth having fallen to 2.1%.
How? The airports are full, hotels are full, restaurants are full, malls are full...And Pathaan did so well.
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I will start believing in artificial intelligence the day Amazon stops sending me emails recommending the books I have written, to me...
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Two mythical horses seem to be doing well in India these days, Unicorn and Pegasus.
Both want your data, albeit in different ways.
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In the 80s and the 90s if your kid had to be smart, he needed to drink Bournvita, Complan or Horlicks.
Now he needs to learn coding using White Hat Jr.
Same formula, same FOMO, of course, different pricing.
The world, as I keep saying, has too many MBAs.
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The next time anyone asks me what is the solution to anything in India, I am going to say, we need better Maths teachers for classes 1 to 10th.
People need to first learn to calculate percentages properly, before they start doing anything else.
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Bangalore startups after blowing up all the VC money over the years, now want the government to pay salaries between April to September.
So much for having a business model.
Socialism for the rich.
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If Bengaluru is the most livable city in India...
The ranking wallahs have never visited Hyderabad.
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I think this one tweet can be used to teach a whole course in data journalism, or rather, how not to do data journalism.
Odisha rail tragedy data - India’s accident rate has fallen below 0.1 per million km travelled. America’s Amtrak is ~1.0. Travel on the Indian Railways is ten times safer than Amtrak?
I didn’t see most western media discuss this, amidst their detailed coverage of the event.
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If RBI cannot forecast economic growth, who will? Jayesh Bhai? The kiranawaala I frequently buy groceries from.
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Taxes come.
Taxes go.
In the long run, you are dead, and your CA wins.
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Everybody loves a good story, don’t let data spoil it
Real GDP growth during 2023-24 is expected to be at 7.3%, which is pretty good. But private consumption expenditure, which forms about 60% of the GDP, is expected to grow only 4.4%.
Other than the pandemic year of 2020-21,…
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As I have been saying, the Serum Institute practically has monopoly over the entire market.
He can offer us a better price. There is nothing philanthrophic about this. That's just a PR spin.
As a philanthropic gesture on behalf of
@SerumInstIndia
, I hereby reduce the price to the states from Rs.400 to Rs.300 per dose, effective immediately; this will save thousands of crores of state funds going forward. This will enable more vaccinations and save countless lives.
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Sincerely wish, people understood some basic Maths before putting out data.
Jharkhand has one death out of seventeen cases.
Assam has one out of 29.
Sample size. Which states are testing.
Just because graph looks good with a lot of red, doesn't mean you need to put it out.
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It's in the interest of Indian capitalists to shutdown Chinese products. It gives them an opportunity to sell us substandard and expensive products. Which is why you see so many of these big businessmen taking an anti China stance. They smell an opportunity to rob the consumer.
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You are hired as a CEO of a company. The previous CEO made a mess. You try to set the mess right. 63 months later, the company is in a worse shape than it was.
Who will the board blame? What will be your excuse? The previous CEO? The previous management?
It's now your problem.
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How RBI Generated ₹ 99,122 Cr Surplus for the Govt.
RBI sold dollars to generate this profit. Close to 60% of the dollars were sold in Feb-Mar, after budget.
If I were to be slightly flippant here: Is RBI a central bank or a govt sponsored hedge fund?
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The Economist's cover story on India is so lazily written. Looks like they spoke to some startup wallahs in Bengaluru and some stock market wallahs in Mumbai.
It has gems like a mortgage banker says, “I have never seen this kind of demand for loan applications in 40 years."
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My MBA demanded a 90% attendance and had only mediocre teachers. My graduation demanded 75% attendance and had more mediocre teachers.
Compulsory attendance is just a weapon in the hands of mediocre teachers and their administrators. If the teacher is good, students will attend.
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I was so impressed by what the FinMin said yesterday on the economic slowdown. It makes so much sense. And given that, I just thought let me list out all the arguments that make sense about the economic slowdown, at one place. So, here we go.
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It's time to say it again.
Parveen Babi was the one and only Gujarat model.
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My takeaway from today's FinMin PC is this: The government is trying to get other institutions to spend money, through various incentives and guarantees.
I guess that's pretty much what they can do given their financial state.
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The US Economy Contracted by 9.1% & not 32%. India’s Economy Contracted by 23.9%.
Honestly, I didn't want to write this. But given that even senior economists are misrepresenting data, I had to.
This is 5th-standard math, if you understand compounding.
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It's been four years since a chip was first placed in a Rs 2,000 note.
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Even no plan is a plan and that's the plan, you see.
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India contracts by 7.5%, but US grew by 33.1% in the same period.
Doing what bhakts did a few months back, making a wrong comparison.
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The freebie economics of Arvind Kejriwal, and why it’s not what it seems.
Of all the state govts, the Delhi govt has the lowest fiscal deficit.
Or what you missed out on in all the TV debates you saw...
My column
@newslaundry
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For quite a while, many of you have asked me to share a list of books on economics which I like, and I have been lazy about it. So, today is as good a day as any. Here we go. This is in no particular order.
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GDP contracts by 23.9%.
After today, India is the fastest contracting large economy in the world.
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If you don't like subsidies you should be speaking out against Production Linked Incentive Scheme for corporates, which is nothing but a subsidy, and not just the minimum support price and agricultural subsidies.
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Behind every great unicorn valuation success story is an accounting fraud...
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Whatsapp has changed political messaging on economic matters.
Or why the economic size of Uttar Pradesh became bigger than that of Tamil Nadu, when that wasn't the case.
Or what explains our obsession with India being the 5th largest economy in the world, when per capita income…
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Banks have given a 7 month reprieve to Anil Ambani to repay his loans. Now try getting even a single month reprieve on your home loan EMI.
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For the second half of 2022-23, I earned all of Rs 22,000 as royalty for my books. For people who think there is a lot of money to be made in writing, that's really not true. Most writers are poor.
As Gabriel Garcia Marquez put it: "If you can live without writing, don't write."
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There was one entry in today's FinMin presentation I found very interesting. It basically shows how the entire thing is being marketed. A few tweets follow.
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The only way to revive real estate in India is to allow it to fail.
The longer you keep rescuing it, the longer you keep postponing the problem by kicking the can down the road.
The main-problem is the high-price and only way it will come down is if rescue efforts stop.
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A small thread coming up on this.
Normally, I would have let this go, but it's statements like these that tend to go viral because they are simplistic explanations which sound correct.
#WATCH
Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad in Mumbai: On 2nd October, 3 movies were released. Film trade analyst Komal Nahta told that the day saw earning of over Rs 120 crores, a record by 3 movies. Economy of country is sound, that is why there is a return of Rs 120 cr in a day.
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How seriously does one take an economic survey which concludes a consumption recovery by talking up car sales & doesn't mention 2-wheeler sales at a 10-yr low in 2021-22
It also doesn't mention that work demanded under NREGA is 6%lower than last year & 42% higher than 2019-20
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I am surprised that people are surprised by the Chitra Ramakrishna-NSE-godman issue.
Large parts of upper echelons of corporate India does bow to one guru or another. So do politicians & most of the moneyed lot.
Given the massive belief, things will go overboard once in a while.
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It took Mr Subramanian two years and twenty days and the pressure to sell a book, to say what he should have been saying from Day One.
Demonetisation was a massive, draconian, monetary shock that hurt Indian economy, said Arvind Subramanian
Growth had been slowing even before, but after demonetisation, the slide worsened, he added
@arvindsubraman
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You may be a famous stock market investor... you may have made much more money than I will ever make, but that doesn't make me an idiot...
I will keep reminding you of this. Sorry, if that makes you uncomfortable.
To all the stock market wallahs who keep trying to write me off...
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Profits for corporates, taxes for individuals.
The income tax system, which needs to be fair before anything else, now favours corporations over individuals, as collections of income tax paid by corporations has fallen over the years, whereas the personal income tax collections…
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Why Farmers Are Protesting Against Laws Which Will ‘Supposedly’ Help Them.
The govt, as usual, is only interested in building a narrative & is not going into details.
A 3,700 word 'weekday' Long Read dedicated to the gentleman who said I was slacking.
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AAP wants to reduce pollution by 300% in the next five years.
How do you reduce anything by more than 100%? (as long as we aren't going below 0).
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Data, data everywhere, but not a thought to think
Propaganda and nuance never really go together, with propaganda having to cater to the lowest common denominator.
My column in the Deccan Herald.
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Why are all the Bengaluru (and Gurgaon) Ponzi schemes firing so many people?
Whatever happened to all the funds raised? Not enough to pay employees for even three months?
The easy money is running out?
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This is the bullshit Indian fund managers peddle and which is why I never take them seriously on economics.
Bali, which one and half times Goa, gets five million tourists a year. India gets nine million. Comparing all of India to one French museum. You should be in politics Sir.
Few years ago The Louvre Museum In Paris used to get more visitors than whole of India put together.
Now India gets more tourists than Lourve.
At this pace after few years Incredible India should reach to its fair share in Global Tourism.
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This is the wholesale wheat price inflation chart. The price has been rising at greater than 10% since November. Clearly, someone somewhere was asleep at the wheels, as usual.
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तुम्हारे बच्चे, बच्चे, उनके बच्चे, आबादी?
तुम्हारा प्यार, प्यार, उनका प्यार, सेक्स?
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Act of God -- when the government sounds like an insurance company.
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Are startup guys all management gurus by birth with a view on practically everything under the sun, or does the system turn them into one.
I mean the guys raise some money, cash burn it and then sell out. All that is very well, but what do they know about Afghanistan.
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I am all for different points of view. But that doesn't mean I will stop using my brain.
Like take the case of everyone who supported demonetisation. To me that wasn't an opposite point of view. The person had sold out or didn't understand basic economics or had a brain freeze.
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The US government has been more sensitive to criticism from India and Indians, than...
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People who are saying there is nothing wrong with the government marketing itself, next time please trying passing off debt as income and then we shall talk :-)
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I just read that Paytm has turned profitable if one ignores the ESOP costs.
So, now we can ignore costs while calculating profits?
Ye kab se chaloo hua? Why did I miss the memo?
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Meanwhile, someone is already writing a LinkedIn post, ten management lessons you can learn from Italy's Euro Cup win.
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Just saw an empty Starbucks and a line outside CCD. Another indicator which shows an economic slowdown. People drinking cheaper coffee.
I know it's a stupid example but stupid examples seem to be working well with people who don't believe there is a slowdown. I am doing my bit.
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Too many Delhi-Mumbai-Bengaluru-Chennai people have a view on the Indianness or the non-Indianness of Kamala Harris, without having a @#$%ing clue about who their local MLA is.
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“We have spent, we have spent and we have spent” – But Where Madam FM?
The mainstream media is full of stories regarding the government spending more to revive the economy.
The trouble is this doesn't reflect in the budget numbers. At least, not much.
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A small thread on India's unemployment crisis follows.
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A thread on the government cutting the corporate income tax rate to 22%, from the current 30%, follows.
I will approach the issue from the macro point of view.
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The cricket pitch at Ahmedabad has turned out to be like demonetisation.
It was 'SUPPOSED' to help India.
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I am surprised at all the journalists expressing surprise at the Cobrapost stings.
Who are you trying to fool? Yourself?
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India will go past China's GDP on February 29, 2073, at 21.00 hours.
Mark my tweet.
We will revisit it in 2073.
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The GDP has just contracted 24%. Stock market valuations are at an all time high.
And some MBAs/CAs who have studied discounted cash flow are trying to tell me that stocks are discounting future earnings growth.
मैं मुंबई बाहर से आया है, पर अलीबाग से तो बिलकुल भी नहीं आया है
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The next time you complain that Starbucks Coffee is expensive, think of how expensive was the coffee that Hardik Pandya had with Karan Johar.
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SBI has cut the interest rate on its savings bank account to 3%. At the same time, it has done away with maintaining an average quarterly balance.
The question is why is this happening. A small thread on that.
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Congratulations to the husband-wife duo of Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo for winning the Nobel Prize in Economics.
In this thread I will tweet stuff I have written on the basis of their research. This will give a basic idea of what their research is all about.
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Let's take Madhya Pradesh, which gave the highest 16.92 lakh doses yesterday.
It have all of 692 doses on Sunday. 22,006 on Saturday. 14,862 on Friday. 1,24,226 on Thursday.
What does that tell you? They were saving doses for a big bang June 21.
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Another unpopular thought. All those who want deferment of EMIs, without having to pay interest, if you don't have the capability of paying 2-3 EMIs without a regular income (despite the unpredictability of the current crisis), you shouldn't have taken a loan in the first place.
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I have been told that some senior people in the financial services industry are sharing a PDF of Bad Money on WhatsApp.
They clearly aren't happy after destroying banks and NBFCs. Now want to destroy writers as well.
Cheapsters.
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If this is a fiscal stimulus, as the media is calling it, I am John Maynard Keynes... (Didn't want to say Amitabh Bachchan).
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Coming up: A thread to understand India's vaccine numbers... or why there aren't enough vaccines going around.
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The GST Council wants to raise tax rates, when the economy is down in the dumps.
What are they really smoking?
They believe they have been robbed of revenue. With consumption slowing down big time, how can GST revenues keep going up? Basic point.
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We are in 2021.
The government of India is still uploading scanned PDFs on its websites.
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Bengaluru currently has ten times the number of active cases than Mumbai.
Wonder how the health infrastructure is coping. Barely any news in the Delhi-Noida media.
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speech yesterday was an excellent example of how to cherry pick data and build a positive narrative.
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One question I always get asked is that if economy is not doing well, why are markets on fire. My answer is there is no link between the two
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Looks like the Finance Ministry clearly sold prime minister Narendra Modi a dummy when it comes to number of people paying income tax is concerned. The PM said only 1.5 crore people in a country of 130 crore pay tax.
Not true.
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