Global Bagholding Opportunities IV L.P.
@justbrosef
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shorter version of $MSFT earnings PR/ call:
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5 minutes late, I walk into a 10-on-1 group mtg with the CEO and squeeze past the 8 dudes from P72 and the 1 guy from Harris. I flick a piece of lint off my half-zip Loro Piana cazh sweater, lean back in the chair, and ask the 60 yr old CEO, “what keeps you up at night”?
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If this is how sticky $NFLX is then many other consumer monthly subscription product public cos are toast.
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In PE, 5+ yrs ago 8x EV/EBITDA was sweet spot for 18% IRR underwrite. 10x EBITDA was borderline 15% IRR. And this was with meaningful assumed multiple contraction at exit. Now folks seem to no longer include multiple contraction, pay 12-13x at entry, and still project 15% IRR.
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If you’re a formerly penniless unconnected immigrant, build & sell an IT biz, grind to a >$100m net worth, and put scores of very underprivileged kids through college on your own dime, be prepared that you’ll still get roasted for wearing a luxury car logo shirt next to said car.
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lmao Nelson Peltz is on a free Zoom tier and had his 40min free allotment expire live on
@CNBC
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(The real) fintwit red flag checklist. Good luck 🤝
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Given Soros’s wealth it would be supereasy for him to just GTFO & enjoy his life, but he repeatedly speaks truth to power and bashes on autocrats. His philanthropy is doing more good for the world than anyone else’s, IMO. Unfollow me if you want. It’s obvious the man’s a hero.
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recognize greatness when you see it
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"TSMC is maintaining full capacity util. rates because it will only accept cancellation requests from clients on the condition that TSMC does not have to maintain LTAs or guarantee supply in 2023, and most TSMC customers are unable to accept this". Ruthless.
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this company makes instant noodles. That's how bad things have gotten in China equities.
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Bernstein: “recent Salesforce data suggests $PYPL button grew -8% in Cyberweek vs Apple Pay at +53% growth”. ☠️ $PYPL
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SPY down 4.5% from ATHs. S&P Equal Weighted is down 5.5% from ATHs. What’s with all the crying?
+ no one forced u to buy $DOCU at $45b mcap with $2b sales and paltry $50m fcf net of stock comp
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Ever notice how the companies that go down 10%-30% after reporting earnings are those with no FCF or where most of the FCF is SBC? Peculiar, right?
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me, walking into a CFO group meeting. I then ruin the ambiance by loudly making myself a Nespresso in the corner, and hog airtime with ESG questions (angering the 8 p72/MLP analysts in the room)
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philosophical intro in a JPM note on $SHAK
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PM type by portfolio, a thread (w/ pictures):
(1)You didn’t grow up planning to invest in energy or infra, but that’s the path you’ve gone down. Sometimes you just want to sit on a park bench for an hour, wistfully looking at the skyline. You’ve watched Heat too many times.
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$EBAY director (and former CFO) Robert Swan sold 40k shares at $42.86 in Q2 last year (almost perfectly top-ticked the all-time highs). Now he picked up 17.8k shares this month at $28.85. For $EBAY, this is the largest open-mkt insider purchase by $ value since 2006.
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Here's the new Sequoia doomsday deck for founders:
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still somewhat unbelievable that $BKNG only burned $456M of FCF in 2020 while $EXPE burned $4.8B.
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Tech leaders aren't statistically cheap yet. $QQQ now at 24x fwd P/E. In 2016 & 2018 it bottomed at 16x fwd P/E. 2020 bottom was 18x fwd P/E.
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Vista 13F; probably a very worthwhile thing to track for tech long ideas.
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Before 2021, I had rarely (or never) thought about Evergrande, China macro or US-listed China technology companies. Here’s what I learned about the situation. [1/67]
👇🏻 🧵
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“Adyen says it has no interest in Bitcoin as a payment method”
“Adyen does not support Bitcoin as a payment method”
vs
“Stripe dives back into crypto with FTC deal”
“Patrick Collison hosts fireside conversation with Sam Bankman-Fried at Sohn 2022”
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Wrote another blog post about $ADYEN. TLDR: 'tis expensive.
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Wonderful insight.
“The reason we had a massively diversified short book throughout the bull market and not lost money is because we were aligned with management [of the companies we were short]. Management was there to sell stock, and so were we”. -
@John_Hempton
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You couldn't give away semi & semicap stocks to people in 2019/20. No one wanted to buy them, even $MU at <1.3x BV, semicap at 10x-13x *trailing* P/E. No one was interested until they actually see news items giving cover to next 3-4 quarters. Market psychology is timeless.
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Investors: “Look for reinvestment runway”.
Same investors: “Damn, $TXN capex next few yrs higher than we feared,
#sell
”.
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CDLX, CVNA. I like big TAMs and I cannot lie, your 80 Tegus calls can’t deny.
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I'm hearing that a pod is blowing up today
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This is where longtime rockstar CEO Henrik Poulsen departed $orsted.dc. Absolute sharpshooter at top-ticking
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CS out with a note that says family-owned/founder-led cos have a 3.5% alpha vs non-family owned/non-founder-led cos. Alpha goes up to 7.5% if you restrict to small-caps.
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Tough to think of a greater waste of time than reading 2019 macro outlook pieces.
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Love these charts. “spot when Reg FD started”, just like “spot when Instagram was launched” in the US teen depression charts.
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$ATVI bought King for $6 bil in 2015. Was a controversial deal. And right now King is contributing an annualized run-rate of $1.2 bil in EBIT. Big home run.
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Needham, on Youtube: "Based on ROKU's current valuation, we believe a separately traded YouTube would be valued at $1 trillion" $GOOG
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Clearing out my cabinets of old junk
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Tech (& some biz svcs) valuation matrix by MS.
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When you pitch a deep value idea to compounder bros:
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$VMEO went public with an $8 bil mcap and is now at $600 mil mcap & $300 mil EV. gj
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Mecham (Arlington Value) is apparently also a sub-adviser to a European mutual fund (Merclin Global Equity, ticker MERLSIC LX) that’s also long a variety of stocks not previously widely known (at least, to me) to be Mecham stocks eg LVMH, BMW, Diageo, Ferrari, Henkel, Roche.
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EXPE has Chelsea Clinton on the board while META is adding Hock Tan to the board. This fact alone is almost sufficient information to form a LT L/S pair. Serious.
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Wonder if $ADYEN being public is a disadvantage. They don’t really use stock-comp, & don’t do M&A. Public disclosures just highlight to merchants how fabulously profitable Adyen is, motivating merchants further to beat Adyen up on pricing come contract renewal time.
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Some other PE shenanigans:
1. Downside case return always has to round to 1.0x or higher.
2. IRR has to round to 20% minimum. 19.2% won’t cut it; juice it to 19.6%.
3. What you dread the most is a marked-up scan from an IC member 30 mins before the IC meeting, catching errors
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$HD's deal for SRS basically returning the entire fund VII for Leonard Green? nice work. Don't see many fund-returning deals in for LBO megafunds anymore.
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Interesting payments chart from MS.
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in Dec 2018 you could buy $MSFT for 20x LTM FCF. If we're in for a similar freakout next month and $QQQ drops 15% again, this time you'll be able to buy $MSFT for ... 34x LTM FCF. Idk... Feels like prices have to drop waay more than 15% to see bargains as juicy as Dec 2018
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2014-2016: buy this because it's cheap
2017-2019: buy this because it's quality
2020: buy this because it'll survive
2021: buy this because it might capture the attention of WSB and quadruple in just a few months
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I like how this analyst rolls. Sell or Hold on his entire coverage.
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If you own shares in 15 businesses, would you rather spend time trying to whittle that down to 10-12, or would you rather spend time trying to find a 16th / 17th / 18th new investment? idk why but I think about this topic a lot lately.
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$FISV. CEO and Chairman each buying 10,400 shares (or $1m each). For CEO Bisignano, $1m is literally peanuts compared to how much he’s been paid over the years.
Color me unimpressed with this attempted publicity stunt.
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$TCEHY If Tencent keeps up this daily buyback program like this for another yr, they’ll repo a whopping 1% of shares outstanding. So generous. You should be salivating
Tencent $TCEHY 700 HK bought 230k shares today. 3 day total of buybacks now 650k
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As a $V $MA long, you are essentially selling a regulatory / legal put, but in return you are getting long (1) momentum factor, (2) low-vol factor, (3a) inflation pass-through, & (3b) a rates steepener. A rather unique and (IMO) attractive deal. Am I looking at this right?
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Plotkin is pretty wealthy, right? Can’t he afford to pay bigger bonuses to staff out of his own pocket for a few yrs until they get back up to high watermark and can collect carry from LPs again?
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(4) You are a male (of course). Your business card reads ‘Langdon Jr the third’. Your grandpa has a building at Princeton named after him but you still went to Stanford. You’re a keen hiker. You think frozen acai bowls are great.
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was in the audience at Sohn London last month where $GRFS was pitched long by an ex-Elliott PM (and Elliott are known for very deep due dil). ouch
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Hobby of hoarding books, initiation reports & industry primers and then never getting around to reading them has been augmented with hoarding podcast recommendations and interesting-looking tweetstorm bookmarks.. all of which I also never get around to consuming.
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Institutions / practitioners / academics - they all say that small caps are more inefficient than largecaps. Their reasoning should be familiar to u. Largecaps have more SS research coverage; funds have minimum liquidity & mkt cap restrictions; etc. But I kinda disagree. [0/n]
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My dream of my performance resembling the rarefied Tiger Global finally came true…in 2022 ytd
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Me, waiting for management to return net cash via buybacks and dividends:
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Top goal for me yr after yr is to look back at something I wrote 2/3/5 yrs ago and nod to myself, like “I nailed this, got it right”. Instead I always cringe as I read my old stuff. But we will keep trying.
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Every time I look at old write-ups, models, blog posts or tweets that I wrote, never ceases to amaze me how garbage & wrong my takes usually are. Invariably, resolve to work harder & become more informed, but then repeat the exercise and find out that the takes are still garbage.
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If I was a L/S PM, I’d have a position, and I’d always have my hedges kick-in when I need them to.
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“I can fix him!”, she thought.
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Airport retailing / $DUFN thread:
[1] Dufry ($DUFN/SIX) is the largest operator of duty-free / travel retail concessions globally. Intuitively, you’d think this should be a good business ...right? 🤔
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GQG top $NVDA buyer from Q1 2023 onwards and was top buyer of $MU last quarter... Rajiv Jain, i dont know how he does it. timing 🐐
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$ORCL seems to have sizeable inorganic reinvestment advantage. They can do big M&A deals like $CERN while probably facing much less political & antitrust scrutiny. Contrast is notable. $MSFT / $NUAN uncertain. $FB can’t even buy Giphy.
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tfw when you request a group meeting with a company you know nothing about but no other investor shows up and you’re stuck in a 1on1
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$BABA @ “18x P/E”. If BABA credibly committed to systematically return 70% of that “E” via buybacks and divvies, in just a few quarters you’d get the stock going back to ATHs, regardless of “CCP finez”. Mgmt / board know this. Surely they’re gonna do it, right? Right?
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What’s the point of doing a “here’s the story” / “here’s what I learned” twitter thread on Greensill when just a link to pretty much any of the 10 articles in the
@FT
will do a much better job?
This is Lex Greensill.
He founded Greensill Capital to disrupt "supply-chain finance", a $500B industry supporting global trade.
A year ago, Greensill was headed for a $30B+ IPO. Now, it's worth $0 (oh, and Softbank was a big backer).
Here's the story 🧵
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MS values $AMZN ad biz @ $125b, AWS @ $375b, subs @ $94b, 1P @ $162b (4.5% steady-state EBIT mgn), 3P @ $474b (20% steady-state EBITDA mgn). Total $1.25t = $2,500/sh PT. This is a +30% upgrade from prior PT, but without updating any estimates. Interesting mechanics, right there
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He looks like he’s about to make his French-listed IT outsourcing co unwisely bid for deflationary contracts and then depart for a job with the EU commish
Has a man ever looked more ran through than Daniel Craig wearing these glasses
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I’m beginning to have doubts that all of sell-side is totally on top of $GOOG capex intensity.
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Time to discuss our 2022 research budget, eh.
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There are tens of thousands of liquid equity securities one can invest in. Therefore I’ll invest in equity of a food delivery company. 👍🏻
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Growth investors and VCs suddenly talking about “valuation” discipline and importance of “cash flow” after 10 years of YOLOing. 🤝
An entire generation of entrepreneurs & tech investors built their entire perspectives on valuation during the second half of a 13-year amazing bull market run. The "unlearning" process could be painful, surprising, & unsettling to many. I anticipate denial. Some thoughts:
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$FIS coming out and saying there's a "generational" buying opportunity in its stock. Not something you see often a mgmt of a largecap put out there, in writing.
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Best 2022 trend is virtual mgmt meetings & 70%+ of participants are P72 & Millennium, but none of them have their camera on, none of them have a picture avatar, and none of them ask any questions. Thank you for doing God’s work and not pumping mgmt for quarter # s.
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@marketeuphoria
@akramsrazor
if you paid a $54b market cap for $CRM in Jan 2010 the IRR on the stock til today would be more like 8.4% and not 14%. This is because of the 80% increase in the share count in the intervening years.
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give me your 10-bagger ideas NOW or else!
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Some $RACE comps. Is anyone still excited about the valuation?
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“No me $GOOS-ta” is the headline I’d go with.
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IMO, idea that ‘even the best investors have only 60% hit rate’ is misguided & promoted by folks who want to attract more ‘fish’ to the mkt to trade against. Maybe the hit rate is 60% in the beginning of a career but for a competent investor it should be way higher later on.
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(8) You think Bloomberg data/Factset/sell-side models are stupid and prefer to put all the numbers in Excel by hand. Your parents were actuaries. You have a dog. Your spouse’s family still think you work in insurance. You think value will come back (any day now).
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Waiting for non-tech company transcripts to show up @ Tegus
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The fact that so many people seem to have interpreted this as a serious, genuine YTD performance is a valuable sentiment signal, possibly.
Raper Capital 1H YTD performance update: +850%
portfolio consisted entirely of $GOED warrants, $CTT.AX; $KSPI.LN; $CDON.SS (sold at the top). I hedged w/ $CVM and basically all the busted SPACs you know and love.
grab a cup of ☕️, in this thread I'll explain how I did it 👇
😁
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On $OAK $CG $BX $KKR etc. Last guy nailed it.
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