joshschuler
@joshschuler
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15+yrs in markets. Theistic Economist. Investor. Finding Insight in Squiggly Lines. https://t.co/0LD8GycIeK / https://t.co/vKcB0Gcugn
Fort Collins, CO
Joined May 2008
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Let me explain in a little more detail what a martingale strategy is and why it's particularly susceptible to this kind of charlatanism and borderline fraud. Let's say I have a coin flip bet, 50/50 heads/tails, heads I make $1 and tails I lose $1.
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Today’s 10% move in Silver is a 4-5 sigma event. A 3.8 sigma move is the chance that you personally get hit by lightning at least once in your lifetime…so not likely. You are witnessing history today.
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Fair well Fed Independence. It was nice while it lasted. #NixonV2
*TRUMP: ANYBODY THAT DISAGREES WITH ME WILL NEVER BE FED CHAIRMAN
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Put me in coach! I'll slash rates for you whether they need it or not!
*WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC ADVISER HASSETT: US FED IS WAY BEHIND CURVE ON RATE CUTS
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The $SPX is ever more too big to fail.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: 38% of Americans don't own stocks, we aim to get that to zero.
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Yes, and…..The plural of anecdote is not data.
If the theory is beautiful but the data hates it, trust the data.
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Last December, I put on this “steepener” (a spread ratio of 10yr notes and 30yr bond #futures ). I’m not a good macro investor, but this one made sense to me. Up $12K (~100% ROC) and holding into ‘26 & new Fed chair. (H/t to @jam_croissant for the inspiration).
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It’s #WWOD. “What would Orwell do?”
JUST IN: Tourists visiting U.S. will have to submit 5 years of their social media history under new proposal.
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The thing about successful investing too few understand is that so much of it is about risk management and knowing when an investment is not working so that you can take action to protect capital and redeploy into something else. Do you know how to tell when your investment is
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The “if she keeps saving” bit demonstrates a reluctancy to embrace human behavior. Better create disincentives to pulling from this cash or most of these accounts will be $0 when they become accessible at yr 18.
Ted Cruz on the "Trump Accounts": "Take a little girl born next year—the accounts open, $1k is automatically seeded, her parents, her family, her employer puts $5,000 each year. Assuming growth of S&P 500, which is 7% a year, by the time that little girl is 18, she will have
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In footie, they call this an “own goal” 🤦♂️
U.S. Treasuries are having their best year since 2020, and the investors who had confidence and faith in President Trump’s economic policies have been richly rewarded. Never bet against @POTUS or America! 🇺🇸
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Anti-vaxxers are like traders or investors who live only for black swans. They are almost always wrong, except for the very very rare events when they are right….and when that happens, they won’t shut up about it.
The anti-vax movement is going to go down in history as one of the most sad, bizarre, and destructive social contagions of modern times.
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Terms you would do well to understand the meaning of in 2026: Petrodollar, Petroyuan, & Stablecoin.
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Uncle Jerome called. He said your chance for an EOY/BOY rally in tech is not over. 😉😘 $QQQ
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The syllabic emphasis kept me from making the LOTR connection re: Palantir. 🤦♂️ Also, I’m now much more afraid of Palantir.
Naming tech startups after Lord of the Rings is a thing, there's a still a few good ones up for grabs. Someone should use these... Taken: - Palantir - Anduril - Durin - Mithril Available: - Gandalf - Galadriel - Elrond - Lindir - Aragorn - Rohan - Shire? Just thinking
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Few.
Why do they even care when 1 BTC = 1 BTC? It’s almost like they are trying to make money in FEE-YAT?
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This. All this. 👇
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