A southern oscillation

Joined the 𝕏-odus, same username

This is unsurprising given the proximity to the east coast (≈ 10 km), the huge increase in BTV-3 cases on the near-continent over the past month, and the recent warnings issued over the risk of airborne incursions into East Anglia, Kent and East Sussex

Bluetongue, a viral disease that sickens cattle and kills sheep, is spreading rapidly across northwestern Europe after it resurfaced in the Netherlands last year—and three newly developed vaccines appear unable to stop it.

Great work using the @metoffice NAME atmospheric dispersion model, led by @JacobwwwSmith with @imthursty @TJKrupnik @CIMMYT @cam_plantepi @MetOffice_Sci and Nepal Agriculture Research Council co-authors, under the ARRCC programme

How can you forecast the arrival of devastating crop diseases spread by fungal spores, blown 1000s of km on the wind and from countries in which you don't have knowledge of crop disease surveys? Use automated media scraping to generate proxy observations! https://t.co/9wm86Azp3i

Also worth noting that not shown above is the 2020 impact factor of 3.7 for QJRMS, which was before Dee et al. (2020) would have been included in the calculation and was similar to the recent 2023 IF

Great example of the care needed when considering Journal Imapct Factors: Massive drop in Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., from 8.9 in 2022 to 3.0 in 2023. Is it mostly due to the Dee et al. (2020) ERA5 reanalysis paper, cited > 10k times, dropping out of the 2-year citation window?

The atmosphere shows its stripes #ShowYourStripes https://t.co/1ac78sIuQ6 @ed_hawkins

Yesterday in Exeter the temperature hovered around a chilly 12 °C all afternoon - despite us being in summer and the wind being southerly. However, this southerly wasn't bringing us air from Iberia or Africa - back trajectories suggest an air mass origin in Iceland or Greenland!

How do we at the @metoffice use NAME atmospheric dispersion model outputs to help @APHAgovuk and @Pirbright_Inst conduct surveillance and control of bluetongue disease? 👇

@APHAgovuk @Pirbright_Inst @metoffice More on our multi-agency approach to preparing for and controlling bluetongue from Defra

QRA written by @APHAgovuk in collaboration with @Pirbright_Inst and @metoffice NAME outputs https://t.co/d2edSt8hob

Latest qualitative risk assessment for bluetongue estimates a "very high" probability of a BTV-3 infection in livestock via windborne midge incursion to GB from the continent in 2024 https://t.co/3KnXFvjf6w

Really nice assessment published yesterday of the bluetongue situation to date in England, where 126 cases (119🐄 + 7🐑) of BTV-3 have been confirmed across Kent, Norfolk, Suffolk & Surrey, and wider Europe, where multiple serotypes are circulating https://t.co/3Bg1uuQVu0

Postage stamps: Postage stamps: 👇 👇

Look closely and you can see some of our NAME dispersion model outputs being presented to 450 farmers, industry experts and stakeholders in Norfolk last night, at an open meeting re the response to the current UK bluetongue cases https://t.co/5S4TJVLw6n

The recording of a very informative @AHDB_BeefLamb technical webinar on the current bluetongue situation is now available online, featuring Peter Mertens (@UniofNottingham), Pia Sainz-Dominque, Vanessa Swinson (both @APHAgovuk) and Joe Henry (@ruminanthw)

...thanks to Jeff Kepert and Kevin Tory picking up the baton, we now have a fast, physically based model of ember transport by bushfire plumes. Unlike the LES above, it runs in tenths of a second on a laptop, so can be used in operational firespread models

Six+ years after leaving @BOM_au, something useful has finally come out of the years of CPU time and terabytes of disk space I churned through on the HPC (apart from the _many_ pretty animations like this)...

Always good to work with @imthursty and Max Blake @Forest_Research - showing the power of interdisciplinary research in responding to invasive forest pests @cam_plantepi @plantsci @plantchief