Golden Rock Research
@goldenrock235
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Golden Rock Research provides comprehensive primary research, analysis & commentary in the world of uranium and the nuclear fuel cycle.
Joined April 2025
Great insight from @frontiervalueh1 on Uzbekistan uranium and some considerations for Navoiy moving forward. Thanks for sharing this!
We all know Uzbekistan is the black box in the #uranium market and Navoiy is the emerging $KAP with a planned IPO in London. So, time to shed a ray of light. There's much more to this story which I won't share publicly, but here are a 3 tidbits. @goldenrock235 @PauloMacro
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See what happens when brownfield re-starts lay off the ask? Trade Tech to $86/lb base-escalated. Cycle highs. Many more new cycle highs coming.
Boom!💥 Long-term #Uranium price has hit a new 17-year high🌋💲 as #Nuclear fuel consultants TradeTech report a +$2 jump to $86/lb #U3O8, highest since May 2008.⬆️🍾🥳 Averaged with UxC's $84, Cameco will post $85 as their Long-term Uranium Price for October.💲⏫⚛️⛏️ Yee-Haw!🤠🐂
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And just like that, uranium is back to ~$82. Sequesters and fundamental demand over the past couple of months has really tightened this market with lots more demand that will need to step in.
Buyers stepping in as spot uranium is back to a value zone. A section from this past Sunday's Weekly Roundup!
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Uranium = Industrial Gold
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Must watch. I have no idea what global utilities are doing not loading the boat with U3O8 feedstock sub-$100/lb. They had a chance to do at sub-$50/lb but said, no thanks, we understand the industry more than you. Sorry, but you don't.
Brookfield CEO explains how Japanese investment dollars will be used by the U.S. government to finance AP1000 builds in exchange for future profit sharing or even an ownership stake in Westinghouse.
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Trying to keep up! US-Japan $550B investment fund, Section 232 investigation, US Strategic Uranium Reserve coming(?), industrial gold & how will China respond?
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A huge day for nuclear power and #uranium in the United States! Another enormous tailwind for Cameco as the US government and Brookfield all join forces to deploy $80B for new reactors.
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For those that don’t know, some utilities accuse Cameco of trying to manipulate the uranium market higher since they refuse to expand capacity without proper contracts in place first.
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Isn’t it amazing utilities only re-start reactors *after* signing long-term power agreements, but are upset at uranium miners for not opening up more capacity without long-term contracts in place first?
Google’s parent company Alphabet Inc. will buy power from NextEra Energy’s plan to restart the Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa, which shut down in 2020, to meet its growing data center energy needs. || The 600-megawatt reactor is expected to resume operations by 2029, with
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Buyers stepping in as spot uranium is back to a value zone. A section from this past Sunday's Weekly Roundup!
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Wow. John Borshoff stepping down from Deep Yellow. A long and storied career in uranium. Andrew Grove resigning from Aura. Turnover on the supply-side of the industry continues…
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See how that works? A trader or traders manipulate the spot price lower into an off-take agreement, it gets priced artificially low, then the trader(s) jack bids right back up. This is all blatantly illegal, but nobody cares.
@BULLReturns Nope
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Today on the TD Cowen Roundtable, Grant Isaac once again voiced his frustration that only 30% of term contracts (base-escalated) get reported to form the LT price, while 70% of the market-related volumes are not even considered...
Video clip from my recent interview with @goldenrock235 about #uranium market volatility & hybrid contracts. Full interview: https://t.co/9fJXWPFMpR
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Cameco's Pres & COO, Grant Isaac just spoke with TD Cowen for their #uranium Roundtable chat. "You Can't Burn a Press Release in a Reactor Core" has just been published for all subscribers (no paywall) where you can read a summary of what he said & some added views from me.
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See how all the bears come around sooner or later? This is the fundamental S/D story playing out along with those of us who know the assets and management teams. The timelines on new projects are far too rosy and will continue to be pushed back.
#uranium I am getting more optimistic on uranium as timelines of new production get pushed out, amounts of new production expectations are unrealistic, the tired old mines of Cameco are aging out and hopefully that pool of uranium inventory on the sidelines is getting smaller.
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As more "market-related" contracts are signed, spot prices will matter more and more. In fact, mkt-related contracts are not even counted toward long-term price formation by price reporters! The mkt seems to be overlooking this point. New note coming to discuss these dynamics.
This matters. A lot. The term price is the "price that actually matters" for uranium. It first topped $80 in July 2024, and has been in a plateau ever since. This is the first materially higher print since the sustained long-term rally stalled at $80 a little over a year ago.
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'Updated Q2 Producer & Developer Inventories' has been published! Who has inventory? How much do they have? Is it rising or falling? Will they be used to make term contract deliveries or will the material be sold into the spot market?
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In Deep Dive #11, I laid out brownfield open sales capacity through 2033. Turns out, the vast majority sold too much. Expect term contract prices to start moving up now as fewer offers are there now.
💥📈UxC's September Month-end #Uranium Prices: 🔷#U3O8 Spot +$8.05 to $82/lb⏫ 3-year +$6 to $90⏫ 5-year +$5 to $98⏫ Long +2 to $82⬆️ a 17-year high🌋 🔷Conversion NA Spot -$1 to $63🛝 NA Long $52👊 🔷Enrichment SWU Spot +$5 to $190⬆️ Long +$1 to $171⬆️ #Nuclear!⚛️🤠🐂🌊🏄
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