George Barros
@georgewbarros
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Russia Team & GEOINT Team Lead @TheStudyofWar studying 🇺🇦,🇷🇺, & 🇧🇾. Led grassroots effort for Ukraine Javelins in 2014. W&M alum. Opinions mine.
Joined November 2013
A professional highlight for me from earlier this week was when @NGA_GEOINT Director Vice Admiral Robert Sharp personally thanked the @TheStudyofWar team and me for our mapping of Russia's invasion of Ukriane from the OSINT discipline. We must be doing something right!
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Maxar collected a trove of new high-resolution satellite imagery showing the damage to Russian ammunition depots in western southern Russia. 📷@Maxar . Thread with much imagery. Starting off with the before / after shots of the ammo storage buildings at the Oktyabrski depot.
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The Ukrainian military has requested operational silence on the current Ukrainian push in Kherson Oblast. We should abide by that request.
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Russia, not Ukraine, is the obstacle to peace. This is evident in the data. Russia has intensified its drone/missile strike campaign against Ukraine after President Trump was inaugurated. Ukraine has offered many concessions to start peace processes. Russia has offered zero.
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Same energy.
I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!. From Donald Trump Truth Social 04/24/25 08:24 AM.
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We're calling it. Ukrianian forces have achieved a tactical breakthrough west of Verbove. The fight is not over yet and Ukrainian forces have a long ways to go, but this is a positive development.
NEW: ISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of #Verbove in western #Zaporizhia Oblast. 🧵(1/7). Latest campaign assessment:
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Maxar collected new high-resolution satellite imagery yesterday (September 21st) that reveals the aftermath of a dramatic launch failure of a Russian RS-28 ICBM at a launch site in the Plesetsk cosmodrome. 📷.@Maxar. Launch site before vs after
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Ukrainian soldiers are progressing. Ukrainian infantry have reached the fighting positions near Verbove - the third and final layer in the tri-layered Surovikin line. This GIF visualizes observed Ukrainian progress in newly available geolocated evidence from the past 24 hours.
I'd like to tamper expectation about the new Ukrainian activity behind the tank ditch near Verbove. The available evidence does not mean this is a "confirmed breach" of the Surovikin line. Ukrainian forces very well may have breached it, but we need more evidence. Thread.
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Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces entered Verbove on September 22 & continued attacking the settlement with armored vehicles as of September 24. Russian sources also indicate that Ukrainian forces are operating north of Verbove. Tactical report thread w/ sources.🧵
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Ukrainian forces have made newly-confirmed tactical gains in the past 24 hours. They are now geolocated to be within 2.5 km of the great anti-vehicle ditch - the next major military engineering obstacle within the Russian layered defense.
Mid-Day #Ukraine Map Update:. In western #Zaporizhia Oblast, geolocated combat footage published August 25 indicates that Ukrainian forces have expanded control southward by 1.5 kilometers to a tree line NE of #Novopokropivka.
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The Kerch Strait Bridge is a logistically significant object. Russia will only have 1 ground supply line - the costal highway on the Sea of Azov - to sustain (or evacuate) its tens of thousands of troops in occupied Kherson & Crimea if UKR manages to degrade/destroy the bridge.
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Ukrainian forces have brought heavy equipment (Strykers and Marders) beyond the anti-vehicle ditch and the dragons teeth for the first time. Ukrainian forces have been widening their breach of the lines for the past several weeks and may be preparing for a new push.
Marder and Stryker assault west of Verbove behind the main line. Location: 47.435681,35.935325.@UAControlMap @GeoConfirmed
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Terrain analysis🗺️. Recent Russian reports claim that Russian forces fell back to dominant heights around Robotyne. The following 3D visualization seeks to visualize those heights. This is a digital elevation model enriched with ISW map data. Notes & important caveats below.
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📷Satellite imagery shows significant portions of the Kakhovka Reservoir has drained out over the past several days, bring forth new land mass that was previously underwater. June 4 vs June 9
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Ukrainian shaping operation:. Animated GIF of the territorial control changes in the Bakhmut area between May 9 - 18, 2023. Ukrainians gain an estimated ~29 km². Assessments based on available combat footage, Ukrainian officials' statements, and Russian military blogger reports.
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F-16s will have limited utility so long as Russia can base S-400 systems within Russian sanctuary where US policy prohibits Ukraine from using ATACMS. Alternatively, we can eliminate Russia's sanctuary & provide Ukraine's F-16 pilots a much more preferable operating environment.
F-16s are en route to Ukraine from Denmark. It's thought that they will be a game changer and help Ukraine secure the skies. No tankers are obvious over Europe.
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Animated GIF showing how a blistering Ukrainian counteroffensive liberated Kharkiv Oblast west of the Oskil River in 6 days for @TheStudyofWar. Russian forces likely do not control any territory west of the Oskil River in Kharkiv. Ukrainians are conducting clearing operations.
September 11, 2022 Ukraine map update for @TheStudyofWar. Today's map update is short and sweet. Ukraine won the battle of Kharkiv. Ukraine's counteroffensive pushed Russian forces west of the Oskil River at a minimum. Details below. 🧵.
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Ukrainian forces are making tactical gains NW of Verbove. Ukrainian forces likely pinched off / are pinching off a tactical salient that they made NW of Verbove where Russian fortifications are notably less developed & not as well connected to communications. Assessment below.
Midday #Ukraine Map Update:. Ukraine has made further gains in western #Zaporizhia. Geolocated footage posted Sept. 7 shows that #Ukrainian forces have advanced northwest of #Verbove & appear to be expanding their salient to the north of the settlement.
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May 6, 2022. Ukrainian forces conducted a significant counteroffensive alleviating pressure against Kharkiv City and driving Russian forces from being about 5 kilometers be out of tube artillery range. Some notes on today's map changes for @TheStudyofWar below.
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At one location in the Toropets depot, a large crater nearly 82-meters wide is visible where there used to be a storage building and bunker. Additionally, train rail cars that were likely used to transport ammunition to the depots were damaged or destroyed at each location.
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Russia is the obstacle to peace in Ukraine. Not Ukraine. The proper strategy should be to erode Russia's leverage and grant Ukraine leverage until peace talks. Not the other way around.
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For context, this is the terrain the Russians trying to escape from Izyum have to deal with. It's nasty. It's wetlands and forests with few roads. Forces in Izyum need to cross the Oskil River while getting shot at.
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Destroyed railcars observed in the vicinity of the Toropets ammo depot.
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Before and after shots showing flooding downstream of the Nova Kakhovka dam. Some of the delta islands and wetlands have been entirely submerged. June 5 vs June 6
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Animated GIF showing progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast over the past 5 days for @TheStudyofWar. With the reported capture of Velykyi Burluk Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv are now 25 kilometers from the international border.
September 10, 2022 map update for @TheStudyofWar. 🇺🇦 forces are within 25 km / 15 miles of the international border. 🇷🇺 sources report 🇺🇦 forces captured Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv. 🇺🇦forces captured Bilohorivka, Russian forces no longer have full control over Luhansk Oblast. 🧵.
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We're now seeing breaking Russian reports from credible sources that Ukrainian forces surrounded Lyman. These reports didn't make the 3:00 pm EST cutoff time for today's @TheStudyofWar maps, but we will be sure to include all verified changes into tomorrow's maps.
Here are today's control-of-terrain maps for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats . Click here to see our interactive map, updated daily:
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NEW: 3D map functionality 🌎. Users can now examine our Ukraine control of terrain map in 3D to better appreciate how topography and elevation data affects the battlefield. This 3D map lives beneath the classic 2D map, just scroll down a little further:
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"European officials expect Iran to deliver ballistic missiles to Russia imminently". Russia is on track to launch more long range strikes against Ukraine with impunity, enabled by Iran. A better policy would allow Ukraine to strike Russian staging areas.
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Russian milblogger Rybar's latest map from late May 11 reports Ukrainian advances on Bakhmut's flanks. Rybar claims Ukrainians advanced near Klishchiivka and Bohdanivka and that Russian forces lost "several strongholds" near the former.
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I'm old enough to remember when Washington was debating giving Javelins to Ukrainians back in 2014-2015. Folks promised me that sending Ukraine Javelins would lead to world war 3. As would allowing Himars strikes in Russia. The argument is not compelling a decade later.
@georgewbarros @brithume This pushes us closer to WW3, and this will not significantly tilt shift the war in Ukraine's favor. An anyone is the Biden admin truly define what victory looks like? This is madness. .
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Imagery of the destruction of probable missile cannisters at the Oktyabrski ammo depot.
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Ukrainian forces are now geolocated to the southern entrances of the Russian logistical hub of Kupyansk. NASA FIRMS data shows a breadcrumb trail of heat anomalies and visible infrared signatures along the path of the Ukrainian advance.
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Proud to share @TheStudyofWar's new interactive control of terrain map for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This public map will allow anyone to zoom in on our map and explore the data at any resolution. Our team will update this map daily. Link:
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Animated GIF showing progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast over the past 72 hours for @TheStudyofWar. Ukrainian forces have liberated over 1000 square kilometers in north Kherson over the past 3 days.
Here are today's control-of-terrain maps for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats . Click here to see our interactive map, updated daily:
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The theme of Belarusian military threats to Ukraine is making its way into the discourse again. Our @TheStudyofWar report from yesterday assesses Belarusian forces likely won't conduct a ground attack against Ukraine, nor will Russian forces likely attack from Belarus. Thread.
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September 10, 2022 map update for @TheStudyofWar. 🇺🇦 forces are within 25 km / 15 miles of the international border. 🇷🇺 sources report 🇺🇦 forces captured Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv. 🇺🇦forces captured Bilohorivka, Russian forces no longer have full control over Luhansk Oblast. 🧵.
Here are today's control-of-terrain maps of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats. Click here to see our interactive map:
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Damage to material being offloaded from railcars at Toropets. Before vs after.
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New interactive map tool🌎. We created a tool to illustrate the extent to which US restrictions on Ukraine’s use of ATACMS constrain Ukraine’s ability to strike important military infrastructure in Russia. Link to tool:
NEW: ISW has published a list and interactive map (links below) of known military and paramilitary objects to illustrate the extent to which US restrictions on Ukraine’s use of ATACMS constrain Ukraine’s ability to strike important military infrastructure in Russia. 🧵(1/3)
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Russian VDV Telegram Channel "VDV for Honor and Justice" reported that Ukrainian forces landed on the left bank of the Dnipro River near Oleshky, Kherson Oblast. We've not observed confirmation or supporting reporting at this time.
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Maxar collected imagery showing damage from a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack that caused a series of explosions at an ammunition depot in Toropets, Russia—approximately 240 miles west of Moscow. 📷@Maxar. Imagery collected on September 18
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I'd like to tamper expectation about the new Ukrainian activity behind the tank ditch near Verbove. The available evidence does not mean this is a "confirmed breach" of the Surovikin line. Ukrainian forces very well may have breached it, but we need more evidence. Thread.
Ukrainian forces continue making tactical gains in Zaporizhia. They are now geolocated immediately outside of Verbove. 2.7 km further east of their previous assessed position. looks like UAF fought down the road at 36TYT 21347 59105 to bypass the ditch and dragon's teeth.
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Ukrainian forces have now gotten heavy equipment past the fighting positions - the third layer within the trilayered belt of field fortifications. The breach is widening.
RU 22nd Speznaz SOF destroyed a Marder and BMP after AFU's 82nd Airborne pushed past the defensive line southwest of Verbove. Location: 47.4285241007, 35.9429008773.@UAControlMap @GeoConfirmed
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Ukrainian forces may be attempting to breach the Russian tank ditch between Verbove and Robotyne. Quick Thread. NASA's VIIRS sensor picked up heat anomalies next to a segment of the tank ditch on August 27 near 35.9136801°E 47.4222758°N. (Imagery here shows August 25 vs 28)
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Animated GIF showing progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast over the past 96 hours for @TheStudyofWar. The Russian ground lines of communications to Izyum west of the Oskil River are severed.
September 9, 2022 map update for @TheStudyofWar. Ukrainian forces captured around 1000 square km b/t September 8-9 in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian forces are likely clearing some disorganized Russian forces that have been caught in this rapid advance to Kupansk & the Oskil river.🧵.
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Drone footage posted on May 13 reportedly shows Ukrainian servicemen without service weapons nonchalantly walking around Dachi on the Kherson Dnipro Delta. Geolocated to 32.6920398°E 46.6587329°N (proof below) @GeoConfirmed . Source:
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I am never buying a Tesla.
Ukraine-Russia Peace:. - Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people. - Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake). - Water supply to Crimea assured. - Ukraine remains neutral.
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Before/after images of flooded homes along the Dnipro River southeast of Kherson City. Location: 46.604, 32.571. image: @Maxar
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NASA FIRMS data from July 15-23 shows consistently fewer fires along the entire frontline in the Donbas relative to before July 10, which strongly suggests that HIMARS are having a continued impact on Russian artillery capabilities.
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The US, as a matter of policy, seems fixated with allowing Russia to use the vast territory behind its 1,974 kilometer-long border with Ukraine as a sanctuary from which Russian forces can project force into Ukraine with impunity. We must deny Russia’s sanctuaries.
NEW: The US ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, pushes back against Ukrainian strikes inside Russia: . "That is something that the United States is not particularly supportive of. We are focused on the right to defend its territory, to push Russians out of its territory.".
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Moscow is doing this specifically now to influence US policy and deter the US from allowing Ukraine to conduct deep strikes in Russia. The timing is not coincidental. Especially given where the policy environment / debate is.
This is an alarming announcement by Russia. As I reported in March, Russia came alarmingly close to using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in 2022, and already has a lower threshold for nuclear use than the U.S.:. “Russia is adjusting its protocols for nuclear weapon use in light of.
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Available evidence from the battlefield does not indicate any Russian encirclements of Ukrainian forces at scale, and certainly not by the thousands.
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Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Serhiy Cherevaty stated on May 13 that Ukrainian forces liberated 17.3 km² in the Bakhmut direction during 3 days of counterattacks. Our @TheStudyofWar recorded that UAF liberated 16.85 km^2 (the blue in this map) as of May 12.
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Unpacking this assessment in our change of control of terrain around the Dnipro River delta. This assessment uses a combination of multi-sourced Russian-provided textual reports about Ukrainian activity in this area as well as available geolocated combat footage.
Russian milbloggers have provided enough geolocated footage and textual reports to confirm that Ukrainian forces have established positions in east (left) bank #Kherson Oblast as of April 22 though not at what scale or with what intentions. Our latest:
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A large crater (approximately 62 meters wide) is visible at the launch silo and extensive damage in and around the launch pad can be seen which suggests that the missile exploded shortly after ignition or launch.
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Ukrainian forces continue making tactical gains in Zaporizhia. They are now geolocated immediately outside of Verbove. 2.7 km further east of their previous assessed position. looks like UAF fought down the road at 36TYT 21347 59105 to bypass the ditch and dragon's teeth.
Allegedly the RU 100thSepRecon BDE attacking AFU 82nd AirAssault near Verbove. This means some fortified lines have been passed. Igor does not approve. Location: 47.44189, 35.95220.@UAControlMap @GeoConfirmed @DefMon3
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1. Ukrainian forces liberated Staromayorske on July 27. The Russian positions in Urozhane are precariously held by a river bank. I suspect Russian forces will retrograde from or be beaten out of the Urozhane in the near future.
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The lack of any Russian response speaks volumes. The more "red lines" Ukraine crosses, the less compelling the case for constraining Ukraine's ability to defend itself becomes. Russia is not entitled to protection in a war it started. Russia can and will endure costs.
Not a wise decision on the part of Ukraine to strike Russian early warning facility that’s part of the nuclear infrastructure. Bombers and military sites in general are different because they’re used to attack Ukraine.
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Ukrainian forces took a good number of Russians prisoner in Kursk. This seems to be the largest single Russian surrender of the war so far.
Sudzha Border Crossing post, Russia, 6-7 August. The Film/pics Russians don't want to see. Possibly the largest mass RuAF surrender of the war so far. Over 60 Russians: 22 reportedly marching at 51.173729, 35.140698 to join approx 40 sitting in a line.@GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap
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Brady's developed a great dataset here. Here's how his observed field fortifications line up with out @TheStudyofWar control of terrain map. 1/5
Russian forces in Ukraine have built hundreds of kilometers of field fortifications over the past few months. This interactive map shows where many of these sites are located and links each to satellite imagery. (1/4).
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It is not possible to defend Ukrainian territory without defeating the glide bomb threat. Defeating the glide bomb threat requires intercepting Russian aircraft in Russian airspace. The glide bombs are launched from Russian airspace and fly glide into Ukraine.
So far, no clarity from the DoD on whether Ukraine can use Western air defenses to strike targets in RUS airspace. I asked about the reasoning behind such restrictions. @PentagonPresSec: “The strategic intent here is enabling Ukraine to defend its sovereign territory."
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Putin's Safe Space: Defeating Russia’s Kharkiv Operation Requires Eliminating Russia’s Sanctuary. Current US policy prohibiting Ukraine from using US-provided weapons in the territory of the Russian Federation is severely compromising Ukraine's ability to defend itself.
NEW from @georgewbarros: Current US policy prohibiting Ukraine from using US-provided weapons in the territory of Russia is severely compromising Ukraine's ability to defend itself against the renewed cross-border invasion Russia has recently launched in Kharkiv Oblast. (1/4)
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Today's going to be a good day to make maps of Ukriane. Ukrainian forces liberated Izyum and the half of Kupyansk on the west back of the Oskil River. Assessing the current front line be the tricky part, though it's a good problem to have. Слава Україні.
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It's difficult to imagine Russia sending aircraft or ground forces to Syria in large numbers now given the operational requirements in Ukraine. We may be looking at a rare opportunity to expel Russia from Syria and degrade Russia's ability to project power into the Mediterranean.
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September 7, 2022 map update for @TheStudyofWar. Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv are conducting a significant ground maneuver spanning over 20 km deep and capturing about 400 square kilometers so far. Ukrainian forces captured many settlements north of Balakliya. Breakdown below.
Here are today's control-of-terrain maps for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats . Click here to see our interactive map, updated daily:
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September 11, 2022 Ukraine map update for @TheStudyofWar. Today's map update is short and sweet. Ukraine won the battle of Kharkiv. Ukraine's counteroffensive pushed Russian forces west of the Oskil River at a minimum. Details below. 🧵.
Below are the September 11 control-of-terrain maps for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats. Click here for our interactive map, updated daily:
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Russian forces do not occupy:. ~40% of Donetsk Oblast (about 10,800 sqkm). ~25% of Zaporizhia Oblast (about 7,400 sqkm). ~25% of Kherson Oblast (about 7,100 sqkm). ~1% of Luhansk Oblast (about 400 sqkm). Does Putin expect Ukraine to abandon 18% of its sovereignty territory?.
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Incredible Russian losses on the Pokrovsk front. Russia burned through over a tank division's worth of tanks and at least 4-5 mechanized division's worth of IFVs and APCs. All of that lost to advance a grand total of about 𝟑𝟎 𝐤𝐦 west of Avdiivka over the past eight months.
Pokrovsk Raion offensive equipment loss numbers as of 04 October 2024. In summary: .1830 Russian 🇷🇺 losses (+115) vs. 369 Ukrainian 🇺🇦 losses (+33). Spreadsheet showing the losses in detail:
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The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam is significantly changing the geography & topography of the Kherson frontline sector in southern Ukraine. Accurate maps must account for the flooding that is physically removing positions that Russian & Ukrainian forces previously held.
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June 5, 2022. Ukrainian forces recaptured territory in Severodonetsk, reportedly recapturing 50% of the city, and in the northern Kherson Oblast near Sukhyi Stavok. Russian forces advanced towards Sviatohirsk. A thread on today's map updates (with sourcing) for @TheStudyofWar.
Here are today's control-of-terrain maps for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats.
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Still waiting.
Waiting for Moscow to offer one (1) concession.
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The Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence on islands in the Dnipro River delta as of May 7. The Russian MoD claimed on May 7 that Russian forces struck a Ukrainian special forces "center" on Velykyi Island (23km SW of Kherson City).
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The temporal correlation between the suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine and the start of Russia's collapse of the Ukrainian Kursk salient is noteworthy
NEW: Russian forces are collapsing the northern part of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast following several days of intensified Russian activity in the area. The temporal correlation between the suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine and the start of Russia's
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Retrospective : The seizure of Bakhmut was originally intended to facilitate Russian offensives to attack Slovyansk from multiple directions. Bakhmut lost its original operational significance in SEP 2022 after Ukrainian forces liberated Izyum. Insights from @KatStepanenko
The seizure of #Bakhmut was originally intended to facilitate Russian offensives to encircle large Ukrainian forces in the east and specifically to take the large and fortified city of Slovyansk from multiple directions. Key takeaways (and maps)🧵⬇️
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📸GIF of Russia's offensive slog on Avdiivka after two months. Since launching a major offensive on Avdiika on OCT 10, Russian forces:. - Gained ~11.1 sqkm.- Advanced 1.5-2 km on the northern flank.- Advanced 1.5 km on the southern flank.- Lost at least 221 vehicles as of NOV 10
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You're falling for Kremlin language and mind games if you think Putin's statement means he accepted the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire deal. Putin actually rejected the terms of President Trump's proposal and is now trying to change the proposal's substance.
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Animated GIF showing progress of the the Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv Oblast over the past 48 hours.
September 7, 2022 map update for @TheStudyofWar. Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv are conducting a significant ground maneuver spanning over 20 km deep and capturing about 400 square kilometers so far. Ukrainian forces captured many settlements north of Balakliya. Breakdown below.
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Freezing the Russian war in Ukraine on anything like the current lines enormously advantages Russia and increases the risks and costs to Ukraine and the West of deterring, let alone defeating, a future Russian attempt to fulfill Putin’s aims by force.
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The Western response to North Korea becoming a belligerent in Ukraine so far has been wholly inadequate. The introduction of a new country to the war is a very big deal and a major escalation. It really should prompt a fundamental reevaluation of Western policy.
🚨 I was able to geolocate and thus confirm that the photo of North Korean M-1978/1989 Koksan 170mm SPGs was taken in Russia. 📍56.069386, 92.920244.Krasnoyarsk, central Russia.
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Frontlines in Ukraine are hot today. Ukrainian sources stated that Russian forces are systematically shelling the entire frontline in Donetsk Oblast and the Kherson area. NASA FIRMS data gives one an idea what that looks like.
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Anomaly detected. The UKR General Staff deviated from its normal reporting pattern about Russian forces in Belarus and near Ukraine’s northern border on January 10 by excluding its usual statement that Ukraine has not observed Russian forces forming strike groups in Belarus.
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Russian sources are likely lying about recent territorial gains near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces spox made an interesting comment about Russian claims around Bakhmut: He said the Russians are conducting an organized disinformation campaign.
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The Kharkiv operation that our team has been forecasting began this morning at 0500 in Ukraine with what is either reconnaissance in force or badly conducted combined arms attacks. Russian forces are operating with tube & rocket artillery support, mortars, & KAB bomb air support.
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How it started:. How it's going:
A new🗺️from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats depicts total liberated Ukrainian territory as of September 11, 2022. #Ukraine has liberated over 60,000 square km of territory since the Russians began retreating from around Kyiv in early April. Quick🧵below.
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Ukraine's 2023 spring / summer counteroffensive is likely not going to be a decisive war-ending action. It's going to take Ukraine many consecutive counteroffensive operations likely over several years - and Western sustainment for those operations - for Ukrainian victory.
“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said. “Most people are … waiting for something huge,” he added, which he fears may lead to “emotional disappointment.”
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📷August 2023 Ukrainian Counteroffensive progress GIF. Ukrainian forces deepen & widened their penetration into Russian-occupied Zaporizhia in August 2023, particularly in late August. Users can explore these recent battlefield changes using this tool:
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Our team's latest assessment:. "Russia may launch an attack on Ukraine on Saturday, February 19, 2022. The attack would likely begin with an air and missile campaign targeting much of Ukraine to decapitate the government and degrade the Ukrainian military.".
#Russia-#Ukraine Warning Update: New Indicators of Imminent Russian Attack. Read the latest report from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats .
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Thank you to @FinancialTimes for using our @TheStudyofWar control of terrain in Ukraine data for this fantastic interactive piece.
The 90km journey that changed the war in Ukraine. Our @FinancialTimes interactive allows you to relive Ukraine's stunning counter-offensive in the north-east - and learn how they did it, why it worked, & what it means for Russia's failing invasion effort.
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Before / after shots of the flooding in the Kherson City and the Dnirpo River Delta south of Kherson where Russian and Ukrainian forces were conducting raids for several months. The island deltas are entirely submerged. June 5 vs June 7. Location: 32.5577948°E 46.5929331°N
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We can indeed - and should - allow Ukrainian forces to fire ATACMS into Russia.
The year is 2024 and NATO equipped forces are distributing humanitarian aid in Russian towns.
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The Russian Air Force leveraged Russian airspace sanctuary to strike the Ukrainian equivalent of Home Depot in Kharkiv and kill hundreds of civilians. It's morally repugnant and militarily incompetent to allow Russian aircraft to continue conducting such attacks with impunity.
Russia has launched another brutal attack on our Kharkiv – on a construction hypermarket, on Saturday, right in the middle of the day. As of now, it is believed that more than 200 people were in the hypermarket. All the emergency services are already on the site and providing
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Terrible decision. Cutting intel sharing will grant Russian forces enhanced protection at the operational level. Russian battlefield gains have been dropping since late 2024, but this stands to help Russia rebuild lost momentum.
NEW @FT: The US has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces, according to officials familiar with the matter. Our story w/ @LOS_Fisher @hallbenjamin @HenryJFoy.
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Back to the exaggerated model. Note that the third layer of the Surovikin Line - the fighting positions - are located at elevated positions - the commanding heights overlooking the Rabotyne -Verbove sector. The vehicle ditch and dragon's teeth near Verbove are in the low point.
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Ukraine has almost expelled Russian forces on the east side of Kharkiv City from northern Kharkiv Oblast. Ukraine's General Staff confirmed reports that Ukrainian forces are in Ternova, less than 2 miles from the international border. A thread on map updates for @TheStudyofWar.
Here are today's control-of-terrain maps for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats.
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Ukrainian forces have resumed offensive operations in Kursk and are confirmed to have made tactical advances within at least 300 meters of Berdin. Quick thread on tracking tactical Ukrainian advances:
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