Josh Hermsmeyer
@friscojosh
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The Air Yards guy | Sign up for Air Mail, home of the Buy Low Model: | I don't have the evidence, but I have lots of theories
Joined March 2015
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Gotten some questions so a reminder: Buy Low is on Substack. Link is in the profile.
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this is perhaps the best halftime analysis I've ever heard by a color commentator
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Lot of talk about how smart Mike is, how good the scheme has been. Less talked about is that he has management training -- something many new HCs lack. Extremely bullish on Seattle.
A youth movement in Seattle: Seahawks are expected to hire Ravens’ defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald as their new head coach, league sources tell ESPN. They’re still finalizing the deal, but Seattle has its man.
At 36, Macdonald now becomes the NFL’s youngest head coach.
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the greatest thing to ever happen to the ravens was Zac Taylor making the super bowl and ensuring his job security
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SF will go back to Lance. The fun part is what happens if Lance sucks.
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Most people like Hurts, but no one thought Wentz would turn into a pumpkin *the very next year*.
Part 2 of my "no one knows anything about QBs" arc.
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He was incredible. He is awesome. I love Hurts.
they should still draft another QB with a premium pick
I really hope everyone remembers how incredible Hurts was last night. Remarkable performance. Give him all the money, Philly.
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The only person who could win this game for the Jets tonight was Josh Allen. Job well done.
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Tua should talk to Steve Young and then seriously consider retiring. Not at all worth it.
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@austingayle_
@JohnOwning
i understand the point you're making, but then I see 5M and wonder who exactly we are being asked to feel sorry for. I certainly would not ask to be pitied if I were Lindsay fwiw.
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Red meat eaters, rejoice. A new burden of proof meta study indicates most of the research was shoddy and the association between meat and bad health outcomes is weak.
Just remember to eat your veggies, too.
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The other thing I liked about Greg Olsen last night was that he kept prodding the broadcast rules analyst about things. points of emphasis, call that weren't made. all the things people normally gloss over but that impact plays and ultimately games.
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Not much to add. In my biased opinion, Joe and Corey make the Chargers one of the smartest teams in the league literally overnight.
Why it took so long for teams to start poaching from BAL is one of the great mysteries of the league.
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GDI NYT, it was not a bank run. FTX was not a bank. Stop saying this.
If I deposit $100 in a sports book, and the sports book takes that money and makes risky bets with it and loses it, that's not some regrettable feature of our financial system. It's theft.
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it was actually about the sad slow decline of 538 and I was the exemplar.
that he got the math wrong and misunderstood a domain he assumed was easily knowable was all just perfectly on brand
We don’t talk enough about the day Sam Bankman Fried beefed with
@friscojosh
over fantasy football metrics.
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tom brady the announcer is gonna suuuuuck
“The sport isn’t being played at a high level like I believe it once was.” — Tom Brady
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FTX is an exchange, not a bank. People buy and sell coins there, and many keep them stored there for ease of use.
FTX loaned those coins to its hedge fund. Fund made bets using those customer funds, lost 8 billion (?)
Ppl tried to withdraw $, FTX shut down.
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there are few offenses i like watching less than KC this year. yikes.
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Smart. You know who was not smart? The Giants when they didn't do this with Daniel Jones.
Packers and Jordan Love have agreed on a one-year contract extension worth up to $22.5 million, including $13.5 million fully guaranteed, per source.
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lol. the fucked up comma, the parenthetical, then ellipses, then a dash. words capitalized for no worldly reason.
i love it all
If any NFL Team,attempted to contact Andrew Luck (or any associate of him)… to play for their Franchise - it would be a clear Violation of the League’s Tampering Policy.
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The answer to the Zach Wilson question is easy:
no one knows anything about QBs. Enjoy Arbys.
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the entire video - nearly an hour - is solid gold. "this does not exist in football" ended me
WTF ARE WE DOING?
Hard to play QB like this.
Can't take sack.
Who knows wtf this is?
What is this?
85?
Disaster.
#DaBears
Full video:
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simply the best stats course you'll ever take
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a Super Bowl ad with a QR code bouncing around the screen but when you scan it, it takes you to a site to purchase Vanguard S&P 500 Index shares.
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@molly0xFFF
this may be the greatest freeze frame I've ever seen.
(really enjoying the livestream)
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what kind of piece of shit says something like this?
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The Eagles are the only team I have much faith in doing the bog standard stuff correctly. The fact that analytics hype boys keep trying to make other teams who are clearly not it a thing is beyond insufferable.
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The entire crypto economy now rests on a company founded by this man
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If you think JT is worth Waddle then just pay him. drugs, man
The
#Colts
made 'wild requests' during Jonathan Taylor trade discussions, even asking the
#Dolphins
for WR Jaylen Waddle at one point, according to
@flasportsbuzz
. A trade never seemed to get close.
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FTX isn't a bank. The lending wasn't lending, it was self-dealing with fake collateral. Misvaluation of fake collateral wasn't a misvaluation, it was fraud. It's wasn't a depositor run like a bank, because the wallets were custodial, not fractional reserve, so it was theft.
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No one knows anything about QBs
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"Oooh I think i'd go for three" - the oldest man in America
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We're cutting logs. And smoking ducks with apple wood.
She thought I wouldn't wear the hat. Maybe she just hoped. Turns out I'm not the only one taking a L today.
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I'm going to tell everyone to invest in NBA Top Shots tomorrow at dinner
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Smart people were telling me all last year that his aggression was just aggression. There was no sound thinking behind it. I didn't care (and still don't) so long as he kept it up.
The danger when a coach doesn't actually understand *why* they're being aggressive is you get this
"We really felt like flipping the field position there was the right thing to do"
"The game was even and I didn't want to swing the momentum their way"
"We had been stopped on a couple short yardage plays"
"I felt like our defense was playing at a high enough level"
Oooooooof
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Adam Fisher of Sequoia ladies and gentlemen.
This is who you were tailing if you invested in crypto.
This was their process. This was their conclusion.
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Story lines I am excited for in 2023:
Everything is set up for T-Law to crush, will the chosen one deliver?
Will Russ revive his career over bong rips with Sean Payton?
Will Watson be the biggest boondoggle ever?
Is Herbert on the verge of being...a bust?
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Shit is absolutely bonkers in north idaho rn. A group of three far right-wing (this is Idaho, mind you) school board trustees have run the local college into the ground, and NIC faces disaccreditation. They've broken open meeting laws and removed multiple presidents w/oi cause.
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Who needs medical professionals, we can just have coaches watch the tape.
"This fair catch is the latest way to reduce the amount of kick returns but it's based on a flawed premise..
The data was put out there that there was 19 concussions but the coaches watched the actual footage and there was only 8"
@ProFootballTalk
#PMSLive
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Things no one knows anything about:
* Quarterbacks
* how to make blockchain useful
* what a catch is
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the grand plan was always to inadvertently fire key employees, then try and hire them back, lock ourselves out of our own offices and then call fired employees who run security to let us back in. You may not like it, but this is what peak management looks like.
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you know what I'm going to say, don't you
The
@Panthers
before and after Christian McCaffrey being traded:
Weeks 1-6: 90.3 rush YPG, 3 rush TD
Weeks 7-10: 159.5 rush YPG, 7 rush TD
#KeepPounding
#TNF
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Al just said reverting to the mean and I can't feel my face
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lol. what a mess
Ravens make Roquan Smith highest-paid LB with 5-year, $100M extension
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I am once again asking you to read about why crypto prices are fake
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The best...uh best ball strategy I ever saw was a dude on twitter who entered like 1000s (?) of them. In each league he simply took the players who represented the most value in that draft relative to ADP. Automated it all as well. Cheers, king.
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How great would it be for Chi to trade out of the first to take a DT?
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Maybe Nick shouldn't have signed him to an extension *checks notes* last year that made him untradable? Just spitballing here.
No deal: NFL trade deadline expires and Brandin Cooks remains on Texans' roster, details:
@KPRC2SPORTS
@KPRC2
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Chat GPT4 has been released, so I asked it to weigh in on some settled science
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I love that we all have access to amazing NFL data, but every time i log into this hellsite these days I see a fart cloud plot with team logos. If there's no relationship, why bother?
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There was a dream that was Rashod Bateman. You could only whisper it. Anything more than a whisper and it would vanish, it was so fragile.
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Why do defenders insist on covering the QB lined up out wide? Just once make them throw to him or something
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Meeting new doggo at the airport, v exite. Born in Titletown, WI. A champion. Name is Winnie but I'm gonna call her Lil' Dubs. 2.5 lbs of savageness.
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lol.
I see your careful studies and raise you an anecdote. Have fun staying poor, academics!
Manfred on studies that say stadiums do not generate significant local economic growth:
"I love academics. They're great. Take the areas where baseball stadiums had been built. Look at what was around Truist Park before that was built. ... Academics can say whatever they want."
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Crypto is an unregulated, alternate financial system. This is what an unregulated alternate financial system does. This is its essence.
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We investigated, and found ourselves innocent.
Immediately after FTX collapsed, we extensively reviewed our due diligence process and evaluated our 18-month working relationship with SBF. We concluded that we had been deliberately misled and lied to.
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you should never be 100%. It's all probabilities less than 1. so if this is your test, then you will always do the cowardly thing, by design.
So if you think Young is that special, then yeah, I can see exploring taking him and trading Justin Fields. But if you aren't 100% convicted, might make more sense to pour another year into Justin Fields, and see where it goes, with Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in the 2024 pool.
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There's no more powerful example of the merit in continuing to take shots on QBs that Troy Aikman and Steve Walsh.
Dallas used firsts in consecutive years on QBs because they were uncertain about what they had. When they made a final decision they traded Walsh to the Saints.
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if a city is gonna pony up hundreds of millions, they should get an equity stake in the team and a share of the profit when it sells. Everything else is nonsense.
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$14,000 plus tax for a family of 4 to watch a movie together with scuba masks on
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truly a shame to see Watson playing like an absolute chump
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"I loved the call, the ball just sailed"
Yes, because you have your punter throwing.
Fake punt is unsuccessful. Ryan Wright passed to Jalen Nailor, but it was a little high and fell incomplete. Turnover on downs, and the Colts are at Minnesota's 31.
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Kirkland Russian River Pinot is back in Costco. At under $10 the best wine value around
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Kliff has to be the least dynamic and inspiring head coach
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I can't wait to have a beer at this Hero's brewery.
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regret to inform the NFL that Miami has been unlucky thus far
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"The 3-5 Rams have scored 131 points this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, at this point last season, Los Angeles had scored 245 points. The 131 points are tied for the second-fewest by a defending champion in the Super Bowl era."
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@CDCarter13
I go to Arby's
I eat thrice fried gristle sticks
I lift, but only on arm day
I read parts of the bible when I was young
I watch copious amounts of pron
I earn a median income
I have the physique of a middle aged man
My IQ has never been tested
My mom says I'm a catch
He hate me
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Now this, this is a remarkable bit of writing.
It deserves a thread
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This is a wild take from a person leading a franchise. It's so wild I will give a wild hypothetical in response:
What if Nick didn't want Stroud and had to be frog marched in to drafting him by the owner. In retaliation and to soothe egos, they traded all the things for his guy
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JFC, this man is a rube
These blowups have not been crypto blowups, they have been banking blow-ups. Lending to the wrong entity, misvaluations of collateral, arrogant arbs, followed by depositor runs. See Long Term Capital, Savings & Loan and Sub-Prime blowups. All different versions of the same story
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Who could have seen this coming? Just one of those things. Life is rando
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the only ethical way to enjoy a sport like football, in my view, is to encourage every participant to quit at every opportunity.
those that remain do so because they made decision to risk it all. men can make that choice. but that yes needs to not just be a one time deal
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this is a DET defense tweet
What a day for Amon-Ra St. Brown, who scored 6 TDs on 10 red-zone plays for the first-team offense. And by my count, Jared Goff didn’t miss on a single pass until his final 2 passes of the day
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If you were on the fence that crypto is best understood as a casino filled with fraud, this paper should push you over.
tl;rd price goes up causes fish to enter (disproportionately young men), then whales sell.
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imagine a world where what a player makes is between him and the front office. where billionaires pay millionaires and it doesn't impact the rest of the team. imagine no salary cap.
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When Baker dropped that dime I knew all my old draft takes were validated. When he head butted men in helmets and then bent over a bench like he was going to throw up due to the concussion, I knew he had grit.
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man, some agent is *pissed* rn. unloading through Rapp
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fired the wrong guy
@Djbienaime
asked Houston Texans GM Nick Caserio why should an African American head coaching candidate feel comfortable putting his trust in the Texans after what has transpired with David Culley and Lovie Smith.
#Sarge
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Makes the Jones decision easier. It was all smoke and mirrors behind center this year, and hopefully the Giants will see that only gets you so far when your coach isn't named Shanahan.
Giants’ key Unrestricted Free Agents this winter: QB Daniel Jones, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Sterling Shepard, DB Julian Love, WR Darius Slayton, WR Sterling Shepard, WR Richie James, OL Jon Feliciano, OL Nick Gates, CB Fabian Moreau, DE Oshane Ximines.
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