Forward Cap
@forwardcap
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Joined October 2021
Do legacy automakers really want to sell EVs? Analyzing how these OEMs view EVs and why: https://t.co/VyNS4NNa0U
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BTC -10% from ATH
Holy sh*t. Just got a call from my good friend who’s a higher up at a well-known crypto firm. They got completely wiped out. Weren’t ready for something like this at all. Hearing that some partner firms of theirs also got wiped out. Fully gone. Not a penny left. This could be
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As somebody who’s been invested in TSLA for over 10 years now, I’m no stranger to his missed ambitious deadlines But I think his commentary on FSD, Optimus, and Dojo over the past couple of years goes beyond that It’s misleading but he knows it needs to continue given the
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"It's kind of ridiculous." Former colleagues of Scott Leiendecker, whose company acquired Dominion Voting, contradict the narrative that a partisan tool now controls a major manufacturer of American voting machines. https://t.co/hLOqOl4HAE
declarenews.org
Interviews with former colleagues contextualize the partisan descriptions of Scott Leiendecker, who now leads the rebranded Dominion Voting.
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“We expect to have Dojo II operating at scale sometime next year” - Elon Musk, two weeks ago Today, Tesla abandoned the Dojo project Goes to show how believable his commentary is on FSD/Optimus, which is driving Tesla’s entire valuation now
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Companies pay consulting firms millions for the same advice
We hired a college intern. Today's his first day. Here's what he just sent me.
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Not long ago, Elon predicted >20% delivery growth in 2025 YTD deliveries are down -13% compared to H1 2024 (-19% compared to H1 2023!) despite steep price cuts
Elon’s guidance on $TSLA Q3 earnings call on 10/23: - Q4 deliveries of >515k - FY25 deliveries of 2.17-2.35M - FSD exceeds human drivers in miles per critical intervention by Q2’25 Q4 deliveries fell flat at ~496k I’m skeptical of the other two items as well
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Wants to go all-in autonomous vehicles by investing in Google (Waymo is ~0% of Google’s revenue and ~2% of its total enterprise value. the stock is tied to advertising) Assumes Waymo has $0 capex (it’s very capex heavy)
@stevehou0 Probs negative EBITDA at this stage given ramp up and limited city coverage But would assume it's all profit given $0 capex and largely software Kinda like how $UBER rides are all profit (stripping out driver costs)
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When will fintwit realize most of an insurer’s cash is just a reserve to pay out future claims and can’t be returned to shareholders
If you listened to last week’s @FuturumEquities podcast -- you know we spent time walking through why $OSCR feels like a rare setup. At $13, you’re not actually paying $13 for the business. You’re paying $4 -- the rest is sitting on the balance sheet in cash 😳
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“A lot of my movies are about, in some ways, ‘How do I define myself in the world, and am I that person?’” “Jay Kelly” co-writer and director Noah Baumbach discusses the concept of identity in his latest film with IndieWire, and shares more behind-the-scenes of the film with
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Reminder that Uber will not benefit from AVs No ownership of autonomous tech nor vehicle manufacturing. Uber’s economics will be worse than current-state
$UBER TO INVEST $300M IN $LCID FOR ROBOTAXI PARTNERSHIP Fleet of 20,000+ Lucid Gravity SUVs with Nuro’s Level 4 tech will run exclusively on Uber’s app starting 2026
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The average American is born into the top 1% of wealth globally along with more freedom, opportunity, and access to high-quality healthcare than people from virtually every other country Most Americans don’t understand their privilege
I wonder what it’s like to come from a well-off family, where money’s never been a factor or anything
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And there are people fighting to allocate more money away from billionaires (mostly great capital allocators) towards the federal government (capital incinerators)
It’s amazing how every organization run by the government is literally falling apart. Air Traffic Control, DMV, Post Office, etc. I can’t think of a better argument for keeping government out people’s lives.
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Sales declining for second consecutive year despite new model launches, model refreshes, and price cuts / new incentives Also before losing U.S. POS tax credit and China pressure from YU7 ramp
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-14% YoY decline Big step forward 🔥
Tesla announced its 2Q delivery numbers this morning which came in at 384k vehicles well above Street whisper numbers of ~365k vehicles, which was better than feared as the company saw success with its Model Y refresh cycle in the quarter. China rebound. Big step forward 🔥🏆🐂
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Big milestone Ironic that now every argument for Waymo / against FSD saying “Waymo has cars without somebody in the driver seat, Tesla has none” is already wrong. Goal posts will continue to move
BREAKING: First ever Tesla Model Y robotaxi with no-one in the drivers seat spotted testing on public roads in Austin, Texas! Tesla's new "Robotaxi" wordmark/logo is on the side of the vehicle.
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😂 this was never going to end well Piss off both political parties - great strategy for the face of a consumer brand
@AutismCapital Without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate.
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Come a long way from a guy dancing in a costume less than 4 years ago
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"Christian Sheppard's The Ancient Wisdom of Baseball is a love letter to baseball that explains its connections to our inner lives and to classical lore in a way that makes one pine for Opening Day." -- THEO EPSTEIN
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Still amazes me that $LMND's market cap is anywhere near $ROOT. Don't think it stays that way for long
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Sorry but I can’t take anybody with this opinion seriously
A hill I’ll die on: Google Sheets is better than Excel and it’s not even close
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Toyota is as good of a partner as Waymo could’ve asked for Could be transformational, but could also be another make believe EV / solid state battery situation
We’re pleased to announce that together with @ToyotaMotorCorp, we're exploring a new autonomous vehicle platform and how to leverage our technology for their personally owned vehicles. More here: https://t.co/KZ65z4d9x8
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Let's not forget what was promised on the Q3'24 call. None of these things look like they will come to fruition https://t.co/aC4PF6RSMI
Elon’s guidance on $TSLA Q3 earnings call on 10/23: - Q4 deliveries of >515k - FY25 deliveries of 2.17-2.35M - FSD exceeds human drivers in miles per critical intervention by Q2’25 Q4 deliveries fell flat at ~496k I’m skeptical of the other two items as well
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Tesla benefitting from excuses that: - sales are down mostly because of Model Y changeover - auto sales don't matter anyways because robotaxi is launching in two months I'm skeptical of demand once Y is ramped, and I'm skeptical of the robotaxi rollout relative to expectations
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