Electoral Calculus
@ElectCalculus
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Electoral Calculus (https://t.co/4i0ISPybeH) is a quantitative political consultancy, well-known for its website of election predictions and data.
United Kingdom
Joined September 2016
Our latest poll-of-polls prediction has #Reform just short of a majority, and #Labour losing ground to the #Greens and independents. Details at: https://t.co/NRkt2WV2Wh
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In line with our prediction on Tuesday, Geert Wilders’ PVV has fallen from 37 seats to around 26 in the Dutch election. We also highlighted rising support for D66 and noted that Rob Jetten had an outside chance of becoming Prime Minister. ⬇️ https://t.co/YGmMroIcEB
Electoral Calculus predicts the Dutch election on Wed 29 Oct will weaken Geert Wilders’ PVV, dropping from 37 to about 28 seats (22-34), leaving him with fewer coalition options 🗳️ Our prediction here ⬇️ https://t.co/YGmMroIKu9
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Electoral Calculus predicts the Dutch election on Wed 29 Oct will weaken Geert Wilders’ PVV, dropping from 37 to about 28 seats (22-34), leaving him with fewer coalition options 🗳️ Our prediction here ⬇️ https://t.co/YGmMroIKu9
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Latest poll with @FindoutnowUK for @DailyMirror shows a third think Britain is likely to be in a war in the next five years and many voters are prepared to accept higher taxes to fund defence. 🪖 Full analysis ⬇️ https://t.co/gJwbPND2oB
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The British public are cautiously supportive of Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan. Our new poll with @FindoutnowUK shows 37% in support and 5% opposed, but a majority of 58% remain on the fence. Read the full findings here ⬇️ https://t.co/z3SvbiBPL2
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Our new poll with @FindoutnowUK, featured in @Telegraph, shows 75% of Britain's Establishment backed left of centre parties in 2024 compared to 54% of the public 🗳️ Full findings ⬇️ https://t.co/PtbatSntDh
The Left-wing bias of the establishment has been revealed in a survey of their views on politics, free speech, the Empire and racism @ElectCalculus @FindoutnowUK @PoliceInspForum @NotThatBigIan @RobertJenrick @DannyShawNews @Telegraph @FortinusGlobal
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🚨 SNAP DIGITAL ID POLL🚨 We at @ElectCalculus and @FindoutnowUK asked the public whether they support or oppose the government's plan for Digital ID. The public rejects Digital ID, by a clear margin according to our findings. ❌ Oppose: 47% ✅ Support: 27%
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Our latest monthly prediction now includes Tactical Voting which deprives #Reform of an absolute majority due to anti-Reform tactical voting. #Labour and #Conservatives still trailing in polls, but helped by TV. Details at: https://t.co/NRkt2WV2Wh
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EXCLUSIVE: YOUNG PEOPLE LEAD THE REVOLT AGAINST DIGITAL ID Tune into @GBNEWS next to discover why the anti-Digital ID backlash is being led by youngsters - the very people Labour believed backed them! Has Labour spectacularly misjudged the national mood? From @ElectCalculus
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New study shows that tactical voting against Reform UK could cost the insurgent party dozens of MPs https://t.co/wcECWvAwud
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Our latest poll with @FindoutnowUK, featured in @thetimes, reveals strong anti-Reform tactical voting which could cost Farage 60 seats and the possibility of an outright majority at the next general election. Read our full analysis ⬇️ https://t.co/vFXGMH6PMF
New research reveals most left-wing voters would vote for Labour against their preference, in order to keep Reform UK from gaining a majority in the Commons ⬇️
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Should Keir Starmer remain as Prime Minister or resign? Our new poll with @FindoutnowUK shows a majority of Brits want him to step down, amid a crisis of confidence in his leadership. ⬇️ 54% of the public want Starmer to resign 21% want him to remain as PM
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Our latest poll for @PrprtyChronicle, featured in the @Telegraph, shows the majority of Brits back a balanced budget, but deciding where to make cuts proves more difficult. Full findings ⬇️ https://t.co/JADHosJOY7
The public backs cuts in public spending over tax rises by more than two to one if Labour is to plug the “black hole” in the nation’s finances, a @ElectCalculus @FindoutnowUK poll shows
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Generative AI tools give confident but very often incorrect answers. A report by @TweetMRS Census and GeoDems Group reveals that most current LLMs failed to accurately answer a UK statistics focused question. Read the full report here⬇️ https://t.co/vqeRsS1EQX
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Our latest poll-of-polls has #ReformUK maintain its strong lead over #Labour, who are slightly down on last month. Reform would likely form a government if there were an election now. Details at: https://t.co/NRkt2WUv6J
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Our latest poll for the @Telegraph highlights shifts in how mental health is perceived in the UK. More than half of the public say mental health problems are often exaggerated, yet only 14% believe current services meet demand. Full findings here ⬇️ https://t.co/zD1bAlap4X
The mental health crisis is overblown and people often exaggerate their problems, according to a poll of public beliefs @ElectCalculus
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The UK Census is going ahead in 2031. This important data source supports the future of population statistics and continues to be of enormous value. Read more about the @TweetMRS Census & GeoDems Group’s involvement in the consultation here ⬇️ https://t.co/voNJsElqKu
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As we predicted on Thursday, Japan’s ruling LDP-Komeito coalition has lost its majority in the Upper House, falling three seats short. The LDP remains the largest party, but the right-wing Sanseito surged to 14 seats, shifting the balance of power. ⬇️
As of Thursday, Electoral Calculus predicts Sunday’s Japanese Election will likely end the LDP-Komeito coalition in the Upper House. LDP set to remain the largest party, but right-wing Sanseito may gain 12+ seats, boosting its influence. Read more ⬇️ https://t.co/xCusvqHJJu
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Our poll for @stae_elephants reveals strong public support for the Animals (Low-Welfare Activities Abroad) Act 2023. People want the Gov to prioritise implementation, but lack confidence in its ability to promote ethical animal tourism 🐘 Full findings⬇️ https://t.co/JLgQ7n9oTc
STAE in today’s Daily Telegraph on Government breaking pre-election pledges and need for action now. https://t.co/flRDIpzsr6
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As of Thursday, Electoral Calculus predicts Sunday’s Japanese Election will likely end the LDP-Komeito coalition in the Upper House. LDP set to remain the largest party, but right-wing Sanseito may gain 12+ seats, boosting its influence. Read more ⬇️ https://t.co/xCusvqHJJu
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