David Lundgren, CMT CFA
@dlundgren3333
Followers
2,575
Following
577
Media
138
Statuses
836
Portfolio Manager. CMT, CFA (in that order). Student of history, investing in present, optimistic about future. "Fill the Gap" podcast. (posts are not advice)
Boston-ish
Joined April 2011
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Robert Fico
• 242180 Tweets
Slovakia
• 145560 Tweets
Wicked
• 88558 Tweets
Newcastle
• 65928 Tweets
Assassin's Creed
• 58089 Tweets
Antony
• 48348 Tweets
Brighton
• 46444 Tweets
Gordon
• 43796 Tweets
Ubisoft
• 40191 Tweets
Amad
• 38175 Tweets
Yasuke
• 36425 Tweets
Stones
• 32765 Tweets
Cole Palmer
• 29629 Tweets
#MUNNEW
• 26060 Tweets
Nkunku
• 25377 Tweets
Scrap
• 24051 Tweets
$CTA
• 23169 Tweets
Cádiz
• 23151 Tweets
Mainoo
• 17847 Tweets
Nitro
• 17121 Tweets
Celta
• 12942 Tweets
Japão
• 11888 Tweets
Amrabat
• 10763 Tweets
#AtalantaJuve
• 10489 Tweets
Orioles
• 10159 Tweets
Bruno Fernandes
• 10084 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
If you want to win a fishing derby...fish where the fish are!
Click here to learn more and try a one month trial of our service:
#trendfollowing
#momentuminvesting
#bullmarket
1
2
13
Not sure if this is funny, scary, or something else entirely, but I asked CoPilot if
#SMCI
had issued any new stock in 2024, and this is the reply, which rivals any sell-side hype machine I've ever seen in my 30+ years in the business:
4
15
107
(1/6) Food for thought: In July, the S&P finished up more than 8%. I looked back to 1940 to see how many times the S&P had recorded a 1 month gain in excess of 7.5%. While I wasn't expecting a lot of them, I was surprised to find only 41 instances (4% of months).
3
13
59
So many investors, analysts and reporters believe the market is "whistling past the graveyard", blatantly ignoring the smoldering heap of negative macro data.
This quote captures the sentiment well:
5
10
57
I am very excited to share the news that I have recently joined Little Harbor Advisors, LLC in Marblehead, Ma. as a portfolio manager. When I left Wellington Management® in December 2020, I didn’t have a clear plan for my next venture...
12
1
55
Who said this?
"If you are intelligent, the market will teach you caution and fortitude, sharpen your wits, and reduce your pride. If you are foolish and refuse to learn a lesson, it will ridicule you, laugh you to scorn, break you, and toss you on to the rubbish-heap."
3
10
46
Thanks for having me on your Twitter Space
@gnoble79
. I knew this already, having dialed in many times before, but one of the best groups of market participants out there...fantastic conversation, great questions! 👇👇👇
6
0
38
(1/11) In Technical Analysis (TA), trend following is the equivalent of growth investing in Fundamental Analysis (FA). Further, in TA, mean reversion analysis ("overbought" and "oversold") is the equivalent of valuation ("overvalued" & "undervalued") in FA.
1
8
35
Hard to embrace anything remotely resembling a bull market thesis when the long side of the momentum factor looks like this...
0
5
28
"The second in golf you start thinking two, three, four shots ahead, it's over. Markets are similar. You have to deal in the here and now. The second you start getting two, three steps ahead, your going to lose your way." A great discussion with
@verrone_chris
Chris Verrone, CMT!
A brand-new episode of our official Association podcast, Fill the Gap, is out today! We've got special guest Chris Verrone, CMT, head of Technical Strategy & Macro Research at Strategas this month. Listen on your favorite podcast service or on our website:
0
0
6
3
8
27
New relative lows from both large and small cap growth vs their respective value piers. I far prefer to buy exciting growth companies but "for everything there is a season", and for every trend there is a reason. For trend followers, our task is not to judge, but to listen.
2
3
27
This was one of the best market discussions I've had, led by well grounded, knowledgeable questions by
@Pdunuwila
of the
@TheChartReport
. Thanks so much for having me on as a guest on Trendlines Over Headlines Patrick!
#trendfollowing
#technicalanalysis
#momentuminvesting
Catch the latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines!
This week,
@dlundgren3333
joins us to make sense of the markets. We discuss trend following, breadth, AI stocks, and more!
Link to full episode 👇
1
1
15
0
3
26
...we now have both indices finally giving us a uniform signal...unfortunately, it's not a good one.
#dowtheory
#trendfollowing
#bearmarket
0
11
25
But, doesn't the market bottom 6 to 9 months before the economy? 🤫
#trendfollowing
#momentuminvesting
#BullMarket
3
5
25
Wow...my former boss Frank Teixeira having a fireside chat with Bob Farrell, his former boss, legendary technician, and first President of the
#CMTAssociation
. Awesome!
#CMT50
1
1
22
A chart is to the CMT charter holder what the PE ratio is to the CFA charter holder. It's a starting point, but more often than not, it's incomplete, if not misleading, information. Just as not all low (high) PE stocks are cheap (expensive), not all rising charts are leadership.
1
6
20
I had as much fun interviewing Frank Teixeira on this episode of CMT Association's "Fill the Gap" podcast with
@_TBone_Pickens
as I had working with him at Wellington for 10 years. So many nuggets of wisdom, felt like we were in one of our Monday morning team meetings again!
Our latest episode of Fill the Gap is LIVE! Frank Teixeira of Wellington Management talks about his decades of experience as a portfolio manager and director of technical research. Which word should you excise from your vocabulary? Listen now to find out:
0
0
7
1
5
19
(1/7) I believe the market is ruthlessly efficient, both in the short- and the long-term. The nuance is that the market's job changes as the time horizon shrinks.
In the long-run, the market is incredibly efficient at allocating capital to companies with superior fundamentals.
2
4
17
We'll have another bull market for sure, but for now, this ain't it.
#trendfollowing
#momentuminvesting
#macroinvesting
1
1
19
For those who think this has been a bull market, you either haven't experienced one yet, or you have become so numb from 3 years of "rope-a-dope" that you forget what one looks and feels like.
2
1
19
What a great conversation with one of the great technicians of the modern day era. I've known Jeff at
@RenMacLLC
for over twenty years, and yet I learn something new from him every time we talk! Have a listen, let me know what you think!
Our April episode of Fill the Gap, the official Association podcast, is out today! Subscribe on your podcast app of choice to hear this can't-miss conversation with Jeff DeGraaf of
@RenMacLLC
, and find all the associated resources on our website:
1
1
11
1
4
18
ARKF Fintech ETF is breaking out of a big base. We run ETF holdings through our trend models, and here is what we find:
5 are already trending, the rest are still in bases
Of those, half are making a strong run at their base highs.
#backfromtheabyss
1
2
18
I turned bullish on the US vs the World (ex-US) when Superman rescinded his US citizenship back in April 2011 (ultimate sentiment call) and remain in that camp. However, I pay close attention whenever the relative performance dips below the 50 day (see inset in chart below).
1
2
17
With long rates stalling, inflation expectations peaking, & commodities rolling over, check out where the long-term relative performance trends of both Energy and Materials stocks decided to rollover. Despite the sentiment to the contrary, maybe dollar strength is the right call?
1
0
17
As the first table below indicates, the forward 3, 6, & 12 month returns have historically been well above average following a 7.5% 1-month gain, with approximately the same odds of a positive outcome compared to any random comparable period (row 2 compared to row 1).
1
1
17
There is a huge divergence developing in the growth vs value relationship when viewed by market cap. After broadly peaking in Q4'20, large cap growth is once again nearing new highs vs large cap value (bottom panel in chart).
1
3
17
The suspense is killing me! The 10-year yield is closing in on multi-decade resistance, the line in the sand between dis-inflation/deflation and reflation/inflation.
#interestrates
#inflation
#motherofalltrendlines
3
3
15
I figured this month's episode with JC Parets
@allstarcharts
was going to be informative, actionable, and above all, fun. JC did not disappoint! We talked equities, digital currencies, the metaverse, college sports and wine. Yeah, something for everyone!
@allstarcharts
brings the fury in this month's installment of
#FillTheGap
. Not your average "Chart Chat" JC is the real deal.
Special thanks to
@BK_Kelleher
for a preview of
#CMTSym2022
& our hosts
@dlundgren3333
@_TBone_Pickens
2
5
17
0
2
16
(1/3) Rules
#2
,
#4
and
#9
seem particularly pertinent today as it relates to the bond market. The legendary Bob Farrell discussed these rules with
@_TBone_Pickens
and me in our very first episode of the
#CMTAssociation
's podcast
#FilltheGap
.
2
7
16
(1/4) Is
#trendfollowing
really not working over the past 2 years? Well, let's see.
What is trend following?
It's two things:
1) opportunity management (isolating market leadership in a bull market), and
2) risk management (saving your bacon in a bear market).
2
0
16
(1/4) It is great to see the recent bullish divergences between the Mid/Small caps and the SPX/NDX (points labeled "1" in chart below). This has led to a very swift rebound, enough to make one wonder if the worst is over.
2
4
15
With the market trading sideways for about a year now, I thought this quote was relevant:
"The cost of performing well in bad times can be relative underperformance in good times."
-Seth Klarman, Baupost Group
Something to think about...
1
2
13
"Strategists" who do NOT manage money yet ridicule actual portfolio managers for highlighting bad breadth as a reason for why they are underperforming have no idea what they are talking about. Cool your jets there, backseat driver. This is a lot harder than writing about it.
2
0
15
(1/4) I am not a big believer in the idea that a rising dollar is always bad for stocks, or vice versa. Looking at both asset classes over the past 40 years, there have been periods of both high and low correlation.
2
1
15
Merritt Black
You're going to go through periods of amazing conditions for your strategy and outperform, AND periods of dull or underperformance. This will happen over and over and over. Knowing this HELPS.
1
5
15
All that being said, this is what the pond, or shall I say "swamp", looks like these days (chart below).
1
1
15
HEADS UP: I’ll be live on The Morning Show on
@stockmkttv
with
@allstarcharts
and
@sstrazza
TODAY at 9:00 am ET. Watch it here:
0
3
14
Just happened to look out my window while my models were running from yesterday's market activity...glad I looked up!
0
0
14
In this week's "Charting My Interruption" (CMI), titled "But what about all this overhead resistance?", I talk about the wall of worry, the box we trap ourselves in with false narratives, and the proper mindset for trend following investing.
2
2
12
Interesting divergence setting up again between the S&P (upper panel) and the Growth vs Value ratio (lower panel), just as the S&P is pausing at the underside of its declining 200-day average.
1
1
13
We all agree what a bull market looks like, and objectively, we're in one now. If you're struggling with this, then you're telling the market what you want, as opposed to accepting what the market is giving you.
Visit for a free 1-month trial
3
0
13
I am a big believer in the idea that we should have "strong opinions, loosely held."
For example, it is well understood, for better or worse, that last cycle's leadership NEVER leads the next cycle.
2
0
13
As we know, individual stocks begin to change trend before the popular averages reflect that change in aggregate. Because the Risk Gauges measure these five first principles across 2,200 stocks, the November improvement of the longer-term gauges...
2
3
13
What an honor to ring the closing bell yesterday at the NYSE. So much history in that building!
#CMT50
0
0
13
Interesting how gains (rows 7-10 under "Avg Return if Positive") are typically above avg vs any random gain (row 6). Not sure I've ever seen this before, but after a 7.5% gain, forward potential losses (rows 7-10 under "Avg Return if Negative") are also better than avg (row 6).
1
1
13
Even more interesting was how frequently they were found at bear market bottoms (1974, 2002, 2009 were the doozies) and how there were 3 such gains in the 2000-2002 bear market (1st two were false), and none during the incredibly volatile GFC bear market...until the very end.
1
0
13
Ringing the bell at the NSE in India with exchange CEO
@ashishchauhan
. I've invested in public market securities in India on and off through my career, but really something to be here in person to meet the leaders that are driving change in this dynamic economy!
Senior officials from
@CMTAssociation
along with Shri
@AshishChauhan
- MD & CEO, NSE rang the
#NSEBell
during their visit to NSE headquarters today.
#NSE
#VisittoNSE
5
10
65
2
1
12
Don't look now, but the much maligned US$ Index appears to be responding well here at major supports, with oversold and divergent momentum to boot.
#forex
#technicalanalysis
#momentuminvesting
#trendfollowing
4
3
10
Just asked
#ChatGPT
to generate an oil painting of Jesse Livermore standing over his ticker tape machine. Just wanted to show off my talent...now accepting commission requests.
#ArtificialIntelligence
#artificialtalent
1
1
11
The tables were turned on me in Episode 23, as
@_TBone_Pickens
interviewed myself and accomplished trend follower & portfolio manager
@atulsuri1
at the 2022 APAC Summit in Mumbai, India. Fantastic trip, incredible summit, great conversation. Great job Tyler!
Fill The Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association, Episode 23, with Atul Suri & David Lundgren, CMT, CFA | Live from the APAC Summit 2022 is now live!
Get it at:
1
2
9
0
4
14
Divergences are divergences, until they ain't, and then they're not. Be flexible if things change.
1
2
10
I've posed the following scenario to several ardent crypto bulls over the past several months, and never seem to get a clear response. Therefore, I am sharing it here, welcoming any and all feedback.
2
2
11
JC Parets
@allstarcharts
loves to talk about his well-warranted excitement for the last day of the month, since it means monthly chart review time!! Today is especially exciting folks, since...guess what? It's the end of the quarter too! It's quarterly chart review time!!
#TAGeek
3
0
10
Technical analysis offers the ability to identify and capitalize upon patterns that have repeated throughout history, and will continue to repeat well into the future, but the fact is, technical analysis is more grounded in the present than either the past or the future.
0
1
10
@allstarcharts
Alas, all assets are owned by someone at all times, even those in downtrends. Thank goodness for their willingness to own them, otherwise we'd have nobody to sell to! 😎
3
0
10
Thank you Pam Yoon, CMT
@PammyYoon
for sharing your story and experiences with Tyler and me on Episode 8 of Fill the Gap. Learning about how you lean on technical analysis to help position and protect your clients' assets was truly inspiring!
Episode 8 of Fill the Gap is now LIVE! Tune in to hear Pam Yoon, CMT, discussing her money management techniques, the chart she always shows her clients, and much more. You won't want to miss this one. Subscribe on your favorite app or listen online:
0
3
9
1
1
10
...from among the nearly 3000 investible companies based on a committee driven stock selection criteria. In other words, the S&P isn't the market. It is a momentum strategy without risk management, and so far this year, it has worked better than most other strategies, and...
2
0
10
Write this down on a sticky note and stick it to your screen:
"Great trades aren’t forced, they force you in." --
@AnthonyCrudele
0
2
10
To see the S&P index struggling between 4100 and 4300 should not shock anyone...there is a ton of resistance in that area. So, expect it to stall there and let's see if supports can repel any resulting weakness.
2
2
10
Being a long-time student of the great William O'Neil, I cannot overstate how much of an honor it was for me to be able to sit down with
@IBD_JNielsen
and
@irusha
to discuss trend following, the importance of proper mindset, plus a few stock ideas. 👇👇👇
"Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes!"
@dlundgren3333
shares his 5 inviolable rules for trend following and the power of waiting. He chats about current market breadth issues with
@irusha
and me plus stocks $RIOT $ONTO $CWST. WATCH Here:
2
11
19
2
0
10
@HayekAndKeynes
Lots of great services listed here, but list is incomplete without
@RenMacLLC
at/near the top.
0
0
10
Thanks so much
@DKellerCMT
for having me as a guest with you on
@StockChartsTV
. I really enjoyed the time we spent together, and of course, I appreciate all that you are doing, and have done, for the technical community!
Very much enjoyed talking market wisdom with David Lundgren CMT CFA
@dlundgren3333
including lessons learned from a career managing money using technical analysis. Worth a watch.
@StockChartsTV
1
0
8
0
4
9
Seeing lots of ETFs that look like this, on the verge of new highs. Not all are outperforming (as in the RWL), but after 2 years of chopping wood in a bear market, are we finally able to sit back and light the fire?
#MomentumInvesting
#TrendFollowing
#BullMarket
@__MOTR__
1
2
9
Can't think of a better way to wrap up season one of Fill the Gap than an in-depth conversation with the iconic John Bollinger, CMT CFA. We covered volatility, back testing, market history, current markets & more. Ep.
#12
drops tomorrow night! Enjoy...love to hear your feedback!
Episode 12 of Fill the Gap, our official Association podcast, is dropping in the next few days! We're excited to feature an interview with John Bollinger this month. Subscribe now when you visit our podcast page, and don't miss an update:
0
2
11
0
1
9
Finally, rows 6 thru 10 in the second table show forward returns after each gain above 7.5% and the 3 possible paths, broken down by positive and negative forward returns.
1
0
9
Things are getting interesting now...a new ETF with a clever symbol CHAT...first of many before this is over, I am sure.
#FOMO
#GETMEINSIDEWAYS
😂
#trendfollowing
#bullmarket
#behavioralbias
0
0
9
@rjparkerjr09
Seems like a hard "no"? Cutting off trades due to increased volatility, especially if it is "good" volatility, would seem to "cut off" the opportunity to hunt those right tail events. Wait for trend change, without forecast as to when or where that might be.
0
0
9
Below are links to a couple "quick read" articles that I have written this week for the
#CMTAssociation
and
@Investopedia
about combining long-term trend following with fundamental analysis.
2
0
10
The importance of a proper mindset in investment outcomes cannot be overstated. I had the privilege of discussing this critical topic and more with
@rjparkerjr09
, legendary Turtle Trader, at the
#CMTAssociation
's Annual Symposium last week in New York.
4
0
9
Thanks for having me on JC! It was a blast...always great to catch up with you and the gang over at
@allstarcharts
!
0
0
9
"There is time to go long, time to go short, and time to go fishing." -- Jesse Livermore
0
0
9
Ultimately, 3800-3900 needs to hold, but ideally, to keep the momentum intact off the Oct low, S&P will hold just about here. In the chart below, we see the trendline off the lows (blue) and the newly rising 50-day average. Bull markets typically hold at these types of levels.
1
3
8
If you're looking for raw, battle tested opinions on the market and the investment industry, tune in to this latest episode of
#FillTheGap
podcast with Ian McMillan, CMT.
Do not miss the latest episode of Fill the Gap: the official Podcast of the CMT Association - shout out to
@adaptiv
@the_chart_life
and your hosts:
@dlundgren3333
and
@_TBone_Pickens
2
5
15
2
0
8
(1/6) In today's Charting My Interruption (CMI), we are highlighting one of the more than 20 key charts to watch in 2023, which we will be featuring in next week's Weekly MOTR Report.
1
2
7
(1/2) Today was a "dual 90% up-day", with more than 90% of stocks advancing, and more than 90% of volume in advancing stocks. Table below is sorted by today's performance (average change of stocks in sector).
2
0
8
File this one under "don't confuse brilliance with a bull market!"
A journey of investing starting in early 2020 until now.
314
1K
10K
1
1
8
A great cheat sheet for those interested in behavioral biases!
0
1
3
(2/3) The hyperbolic bubble in bonds (negative rates around the globe) has been reversed, not by a long, drawn-out process, but by an equally violent and rapid move in the opposite direction. This despite so many experts calling for "transitory" inflation.
1
2
8
(2/2) Since we have now retested the 200-day avg after declining -20%, we can eliminate the first scenario. Here they are, if interested:
3
4
7
With so much uncertainty regarding inflation, deficits, war, AI, and the environment, now, more than ever, it is essential to tune out all the noise and listen to the best macro strategist on the planet...the market.
#trendfollowing
#momentuminvesting
1
3
8
(4/4) We like to think we control how much we make in bull markets, but we really don't. The only thing we really control is how much we lose when we are "wrong", which is most often in bear markets. Hopefully, the next bull is near. If so, don't lose sight of risk management!
0
1
7
I had featured this data in an earlier post but updated where we stand on this as of Friday's close on page 4 of this week's MOTR Weekly note (see chart). Remember, "know your history, be optimistic about the future, but invest in the present."
#bearmarket
#trendfollowing
0
0
8
It is well known by all that high beta stocks peaked vs low volatility (black line) and quality (gold line) in early 2021, and that bitcoin (blue line) has basically become that same "risk on/risk off" trade. Price can only do one of three things: trend up, down or sideways.
1
0
7
@the_chart_life
Sounds like she might be a very talented and disciplined manager of a concentrated portfolio based on relative performance and tight stops?
0
0
6
I am incredibly excited to announce that my long-time friend and colleague
@CasellaRick
has joined MOTR Capital Management & Research, Inc. as our new Director of Business Development.
1
0
7
Two of my favorite quotes:
"It is very, very, very hard to beat a benchmark if you do not own things that beat the benchmark.”
"I just don't think paying someone a fee for them to put you in a diversified portfolio cuts it anymore."
Boom...enjoy!
0
0
7
Bitcoin holding up at major trendline support near 18,000, but lots of damage done with double top break, and target still out there at 12,000. How BTC does from here will provide important indication of where we are in the risk cycle.
1
0
6
Great heads up here from Ian McMillan
@the_chart_life
. This guy is good! Check out episode
#15
of Fill the Gap, the official podcast of the
#CMTAssociation
. Ian talks all about his process, latest market thoughts, and the business overall.
You’re telling me out of Semis, Banks, Trans, and Retail - I’d argue these are some of the most risk-on areas in each of their resp. sectors - none are working right now from a leadership perspective? Not to mention, they all lost relative strength during the two week rally? 🤨🤔
6
4
40
1
1
7
@Hedgeye
I can verify the existence of this boat, as it was literally just outside my office window!
0
0
7
There were also 3 types of 7.5% gains: 1) start and end below the 200 day avg (like July), 2) start below but end above the 200 day, and 3) start and end above the 200 day. Rows 3 thru 5 show the stats for each. The green boxes show July's path, making row 3 the most comparable.
2
0
7
One of the legends of the business. The green book. The blue book. All that data. Built a spectacular team.
Incredible insights steeped in experience and intuition. Wonderful conversationalist.. Which book was it that had all the jokes?
RIP Steve Leuthold.
Steven Carl Leuthold, Age 85, a dynamic and respected CMT Association Member with over 50 years of service to the investment industry passed away peacefully at his home in Carlsbad, California, on March 7, 2023.
Check one of Steven's best sessions at
3
6
16
0
0
7
@rjparkerjr09
, the LeBron James of trend following, sharing his thoughts on the necessary mindset for successful systematic trading. Trend following is simple but not easy, take it from someone who knows a thing or two about the subject!
#CMT50
Jerry Parker and David Lundgren live recording of ‘Fill The Gap’ podcast
@CMTAssociation
#CMT50
0
5
34
0
0
7
(1/5) In my classes & presentations about connecting technical & fundamental investing, I stress the undeniable truth that all investors, even Warren Buffett, must journey through the gauntlet of expectancy:
(profit = (hit rate * avg win) - ((1-hit rate) * avg loss)).
1
0
7
Note how today's performance is nearly opposite of each sector's momentum rank. The best did worst, and the worst did best. Your classic momentum factor crash. A very common ingredient to a market bottom. More needs to be done, but this is a good start.
0
0
7
Very much looking forward to sharing the benefits of technical analysis with my fellow CFA charter holders from San Francisco and beyond! Tune in if you can!
Reminder to join us for a special Zoom event with
@dlundgren3333
!
Details:
#CFA
#Sacramento
#CFASocietySacramento
#CFASS
#education
0
1
1
0
0
7
(1/4) We've seen this before in fundamental analysis when management says one thing but the footnotes say another. At minimum, its a red flag to be cautious. In its fullest, its a clear sell signal.
1
0
7
New ALL TIME low on NASDAQ Composite Advance Decline Line today with another massive swell in 52 week lows.
#bearmarket
#technicalanalysis
#trendfollowing
1
1
7
We also have stochastics near oversold. All in, bulls should make their stand here. Also, in bull markets, sell signals like the ones I have highlighted (bearish divergence on stochastics and the bearish cross on the PPO) are all but ignored.
Let's see how we do in here...
1
0
7