Dr. Deepti Gurdasani
@dgurdasani1
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Clinical epidemiology, machine learning, NLP, global health. Intersectional feminist. she/her. Also on @dgurdasani1 @mastodon .world @dgurdasani1 .bsky.social
Joined October 2017
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#JohnSnowMemo
Scientists, health professionals, public health researchers- please join the call for action.
Sign the John Snow Memorandum here:
Please disseminate widely.
NEW Correspondence—80+ researchers warn that a so-called
#herdimmunity
approach to managing
#COVID19
is “a dangerous fallacy unsupported by the scientific evidence”
#WCPH2020
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Our daughter performed a monologue for drama class today. The teacher asked her if she could unmask so she could watch her facial expressions. Daughter explained that she only unmasked outdoors. The class went outside to watch her perform.
Inclusivity is possible if people care
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Waiting for the lightbulb moment when governments realise clean air is cheaper than airborne illness and all its consequences on health and economy.
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So, it appears that the private lab which wrongly gave out 43,000 PCR negative results was Immensa, a company with no experience of PCR tested awarded a £119 million contract after only being in existence for 4 months. Corruption costs lives.
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I've been a hearing a lot about how children are more infectious *now* & contribute to transmission because of the B117 variant, but didn't before. This is a myth. Children & schools have always played an important role in transmission. Time to lay this to rest. Thread.
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The Imperial report on the new UK B117 strain is out. Very concerning findings, that highlight why we need to act on this *now*. These findings suggest that the situation within the UK is likely to get much worse than it is now. Here's why-
Thread.
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I still can't get over the fact that Western govts have supported and funded 42 days of bombarding, killing starving, denying clean water, fuel, medicines (including pain killers and life-saving antibiotics) to 2.3 million trapped civilians (including 1 million children)....
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PM just asked about disproportionate impacts on poorer people who may not be able to pay £60-120 for a test, and then lose pay by self-isolating without enough financial support. PM just says that we are 'underestimating the willingness of people to do the right thing' Shameful
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.
@torontolibrary
has apparently removed Refaat's poem under pressure from zionists. Refaat was a poet who wrote about his own death - before the IDF murdered him. He'd want this poem to be shared to keep his hopes, and his spirit alive. Please share.
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In the last 2 yrs, I've heard so many discussions in the media on mental health impact of lockdowns/working from home. Will anyone talk about the impact on vulnerable people of being forced into unsafe environments in a raging pandemic because the govt doesn't value their lives?
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Russia interfered in our democracy- we did nothing
Russia poisoned people on UK soil- we did nothing
We signed a treaty with Ukraine saying that we'd protect them if they gave up their nuclear weapons - they gave them up in good faith
Russia just invaded Ukraine- we do nothing
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Um, I have news for you... we weren't 'empowered'. The govt (which you are a part of) continued to make policies which had no basis in science, and killed >200,000 people & disabled hundreds of thousands while we screamed helplessly at every step.
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To the 'everyone will get it anyway' crowd, you do know that even it that happened it isn't the end? It's not chickenpox. You can get it again. And again. And again (see omicron). And get long covid/serious illness the 2nd time. So 'everyone getting it' won't end this.
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Wearing my new Cleanspace halo on the flight. Fit tested. Very comfy. Filters all the air that I breathe in. As it’s transparent, I didn’t need to remove it for the identity check or even the automatic gate that scans my face to match with passport. Taking no risks this time.
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You can suggest I'm being 'alarmist'. But if you're not alarmed at this point, might I suggest that perhaps you don't understand how exponentials work.
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I know lots of people have been asking why I haven't been on social media much. I've been meaning to explain for a while, but wanted a few weeks to myself, before sharing this to brace against the inevitable attacks & harassment that will likely follow from this thread.🧵
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We have had the same number of deaths involving COVID-19 (COVID-19 on the death certificate) in 0-19 yr olds in England and Wales in just 3 months in this year as we had in all of 2020. Tell me again how children don't need protection because the pandemic is over.
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More & more evidence accruing that SARS-CoV-2 causes significant persistent effects on the brain. We now have multiple strands supporting this-
-long-term symptoms-brain fog, memory loss
-higher risk of stroke/neuro diseases
-structural brain changes
-virus persistence in brain🧵
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I don't even know what to say. There were 2.8 million people estimated to have prevalent infection in the last ONS survey. 1 in 19 people in the community in England. ~1,800 deaths/wk in the UK. Removing requirements for self-isolation will lead to preventable illness & death.🧵
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We live in a country where the govt will ask the military to set up field hospitals & plan for mortuary capacity before enacting even the most basic public health measures to *prevent* this.
183,000 confirmed cases today - the silence is deafening.
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Myth debunking:
After reading more misleading takes in the media, I'm going to try to explain this again- overall, omicron causes *more* and not less severe disease than delta - even at an individual level for most people. Why? 🧵
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The irresponsibility of not wearing a mask in a hospital- around HCWs who come into contact with vulnerable patients. This is our PM. It wasn't worth this small sacrifice to protect others - in a hospital. None of us would be allowed in without a mask. So why has he?
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I'm honestly at a loss as to understanding what our government is thinking & what evidence they're considering in enacting gravely negligent policies that will almost certainly lead to tens of thousands of deaths in the coming weeks. Thread.
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I honestly cannot believe that we're living in a country where our govt is acting against scientific advice once again, and delaying action on rapid exponential growth, fully aware of the consequences- for the fourth time- a stance normalised by a complicit media.🧵
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I have no sympathy for a CMO who stands alongside our PM supporting policies that will impact millions - who a few days later says he's concerned about long COVID and rising hospitalisations (all fully predicted).
We're in a crisis. If you don't speak up, you're complicit.
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Tired of the xenophobic takes around countries like Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan who've done much better overall compared to Europe/US/UK.
Wanting to breathe clean air isn't a 'cultural' thing. And mask wearing isn't about 'obedience', it's about protecting our communities.
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There's more & more evidence accumulating that COVID-19 causes a chronic illness in many, and that this correlates with virus persistence in tissues. We should really start thinking about this as an illness where virus persists chronically in a significant proportion of people.🧵
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Went to a local dentist today- recommended to me for their COVID safe measures. The dentist & assistant both wore FFP3s - there was a massive HEPA air filter in the room. I was called a day before my appt to screen for symptoms. It can be done when people are well-informed & care
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Dear PM,
Thank you for warning me to 'stay vigilant & exercise caution' to protect myself.
Please tell me how to exercise caution while I’m on double immunosuppression & my child attends school with 32 children in a crowded classroom with no ventilation, distancing or masks?
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Some thoughts on the PMs briefing today:
-false 'now or never' narrative alert
-no mention of long COVID or CV
-implicit that mass infection of young doesn't matter
-abdication of govt responsibility
-Internal inconsistency and confused messaging🧵
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This is ridiculous- these purifiers cost 6x higher than regular ones that are far more extensively used across the globe. It's completely scandalous. For the amount being paid to Dyson (!), they could be making 6x the number of classrooms safer than they are. Why aren't they?
Why is recommending these overpriced filtration units for schools? Why not list other suppliers who provide equally good units at a fraction the cost. Who’s lobbying whom? Asking for a friend.
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For 19 months, I've been constantly attacked for advocating for elimination, and saying SARS-CoV-2 isn't a virus we can and should live with. It's been evolving in one direction from the start- greater transmissibility, escape & virulence. 🧵
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Please stop gaslighting clinically vulnerable people & patients just because you don't understand the risks posed by SARS-CoV-2 or can't cope with a reality of a virus that leaves people disabled & increases risk of death, diabetes, stroke, heart, kidney disease even 1 yr down.
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Anyone else alarmed at what omicron spread might mean for long COVID?
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BJ- 'we can't rule out Christmas lockdown because of the Europe wave!'. We've had eye watering case rates for months- *>4 million* confirmed cases since 'freedom day' and excess deaths every single week since July - >20,000 since July. This isn't on Europe. It's on him.
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'Endemicity' is the rebranding of 'herd immunity' by the same people who were repeatedly wrong about how close we've been to achieving herd immunity. They're now moving to claiming we've reached endemicity, regardless of what the term actually means - just like they did before.
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Both Whitty and Vallance talking about prioritising protecting the vulnerable. But how on earth do they think clinically vulnerable people will keep safe if infected people are not required to or supported to isolate? And if testing for most people ends? Seriously?
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Myth busting thread: Vaccines *do* reduce transmission- even with delta. Anyone who says otherwise (and I've seen many scientists say this recently to rationalise not vaccinating children!) is misinterpreting the evidence. Let me explain
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Ok, time to do a thread on long COVID. Long COVID is a *real* multi-system syndrome that occurs in those infected (far more common than in uninfected controls)- predominantly impacting the young. Let's do a deep delve into this syndrome that some in JCVI are in denial about! 🧵
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Would love to hear from proponents of 'herd immunity' through infection on how much ground we've gained by infecting millions over the summer causing chronic illness & death- only to find a new variant that evades immunity from prior infection.
So tell me, was it worth it?
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Anyone else flummoxed at the claims of 'it's endemic/near-endemic' amid the highest case rates we've *ever* seen, after the *fastest* exponential growth of the virus we've *ever* seen?
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Long COVID data just out from the ONS TL;DR
-1.7 million people now living with long COVID (28 day definition) - that's 1 in 37 people in the commiunity
-780,000 have had this for *more than a yr*
-at least 334000 got this during the omicron wave (impact since Feb not felt yet)🧵
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Went to a GP in Perth yesterday - at the reception was a sign reminding everyone to wear a mask as many patients seen at the clinic are immunocompromised. In the consult room, the GP had a CO2 monitor on display (levels ~560ppm), HEPA air purifier & was wearing a mask. 🧵
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Chris Whitty saying that SAGE has modelled school openings - which suggested these will not lead to an increase in R if 'done carefully'.
Can the public see these models, so these can be critically appraised by the scientific community?
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Did anyone hear any mention of long COVID, an illness affecting 1.3 million people, of whom 500,000 have had this for more than a year during the briefing? Are we just going to pretend it doesn't exist?
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A brief summary of the very precarious situation we are in now, and why we have a very narrow window to act in the UK. If we don't act now, it's likely the window for containing COVID-19 will pass- not just for the UK but globally. Here's why. Thread.
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If you're so cautious about protecting the health of children that you want data on >7 million vaccinated children before you choose to vaccinate them, why are you so cavalier about exposing them to a neuro-degenerative multi-system chronic disease causing virus? Please explain.
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Was just on Sky. Got asked 'if there's a time to get infected, surely summer's better'. No. Avoid it. Now & later. Ventilation & high-grade masks provide high protection. You really don't want to live with an 8% risk of long COVID & impact to multiple organs a yr down the line!
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Just a heads up to everyone who has very kindly supported me & been following me over the past year- I've been quite unwell for the past yr & it's been a struggle to get treatment in the midst of COVID-19. I'm focusing on my health & will likely be spending less time on media🧵
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Now that we're getting to the end of the year, it's worth looking at the toll of the 'mild & acceptable' illness that COVID is hailed as by many. Here's a thread of measurable toll in the UK in 2022 since omicron - considered the 'mild' variant of COVID spread. 🧵
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Just got off
@TimesRadio
. Before me was Christopher Chope- claiming that we shouldn't worry about 93,000 cases/day, because it's a 'bad flu' & we shouldn't listen to scientists who 'aren't accountable to anyone'. Had to start the interview by saying he was spouting utter rubbish!
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Wow. No.10 blocked data on variants in schools before dropping masks. Later PHE asked if they could release data & were told "release some information but keep it vague & release alongside everything else to make the situation look not as bad as it is.”🧵
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I'd love for all those going on about 'endemicity' and how this means the 'end of a pandemic' to spend a single week in a hospital in India, and see what endemic diseases do to people... the ignorance in scientific leadership in the UK is absolutely breathtaking.
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I recently did an interview where I was asked to give my opinion on recent changes in UK border policy as an expert. After I did this, the two hosts discussed me, suggesting that I was out of touch, & didn't understand that we need to 'accept' risk.
🧵 on 'accepting' risks.
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I'm still utterly stunned by yesterday's events - let me go over this in chronological order & why I'm shocked.
- first, in the morning yesterday, we saw a 'leaked' report to FT which reported on
@PHE_uk
data that was not public at the time🧵
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There have been a number of recent studies that haven't really reached MSM - highlighting the complex biology of long COVID. TL;DR: Long COVID & even 'mild' infection is associated with:
- long term immune dysregulation and inflammation
- virus persistence
- neuro-inflammation
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Today's briefing appears to be an exercise in doing the bare minimum while seeming to signal that our response is in someway proportionate to the potential threat. Let's be clear- this response doesn't even go far enough to deal with delta, far from dealing with anything beyond🧵
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If you think masking affects your quality of life, consider for a moment what long COVID and disability does.... and no, the risk isn't low. For anyone.
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As hospitalisations increase, it's worth again noting that testing has massively reduced as positivity has risen to 20% in England (similar to the Dec omicron wave). So cases are *massively* underestimated - and looking at dashboard numbers will underestimate risk.🧵
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Thank you
@jacindaardern
. It's good to know that there are politicians and governments that are not conducting a mass experiment of deliberately and knowingly exposing their population to mass infection. Can't believe this is where we are.
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The media won't cover high quality peer reviewed published evidence on the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on every single organ system, but rushes to cover 'expert opinion' on an unpublished non-peer reviewed abstract that contradicts everything we know about LC so far.🧵
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Today, Chris Whitty said many NHS staff will get ill & there will be shortages. Can we *please* protect HCWs by at updating PPE so all have access to high quality masks & put in HEPA air purifiers in hosp. HCWs have the highest long COVID rates across occupations. Not acceptable.
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'Treat SARS-CoV-2 like the flu'
A bit like, when faced with a lion, going 'hey, kitty, kitty, come here...'
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Instead of advocating for clean air, much of the West has decided to adopt the myth that infection is good for you to justify doing nothing. We saw opposition to clean water many decades ago too. Clean air will take a few decades & loss of life, health & economic growth too 🧵
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Heated interview on Nolan just now. It was a lesson in the misogyny that women face when interviewed:
-Repeatedly told to consider my tone
-The credentials of the male expert were cited to me
-the male expert referred to me as a 'caller'
From 9:38 on:
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On being invited to
@GMB
panel tomorrow, I have said I will not be able to do this, unless there is a public apology to
@SusanMichie
. Instigating pile ons on scientists who are already being targeted daily is unacceptable. I hope other scientists will also boycott in solidarity🧵
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Dear public health organisations,
You can't deal with a rapidly adapting virus with highly immune evasive variants with an outdated vaccine only approach. You need variant agnostic approaches- approaches that reduce airborne transmission *alongside* & reduce rate of adaptation.
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.
@JuliaHB1
, my 7 yr knows more about her risk, & the mechanics of aerosol transmission than you'll ever understand. Also, if you knew my daughter, you'd know no one can 'force' her to do anything- she's incredibly well informed, and a force to be reckoned with. Like her mum.
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Would you accept a vaccine for your child that caused poorly understood long-term illness in 1-14%, needed them to be off school for a wk & could rarely cause death? No? Well, then you shouldn't be ok with exposing children to 'natural infection', because that's what it does.
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To those who feel I shouldn't be tweeting about anything except COVID-19 - I'm a person with opinions and this is my private account, and I will use it to express my opinions on whatever I feel like. If you don't like it, feel free to unfollow. You don't get to tone police me.
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I got a call from BBC Question Time months ago for a pre-interview so they could decide to have me on or not. When asked about Johnson & why I thought he'd failed so badly on pandemic response, I said 'he's a narcissistic sociopath'.... needless to say I didn't get called after!
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Really keen to understand how anyone can ascribe lack of potty training to lockdown 3 yrs ago- after all, potty training happens at home in toddlers, not in school, and is usually not a social phenomenon! Someone please explain....
"Nearly half of children in some areas arrive unable to talk and still not potty-trained as lockdown legacy take its toll, data shows" What have these kids been doing the last 2 yrs???
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Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.
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If you're going to claim that ventilation doesn't reduce risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, you will have to explain why the risk outdoors is so much lower than the risk indoors!
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What on earth is going on with the mess that is govt's current COVID-19 strategy? Not only is it completely unscientific, it's also unethical and inhumane. We must not accept what can only be described as mass endangerment of children & young people. We must challenge this.🧵
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Pretty shocking data from the ONS on long COVID released just now- the 4 wk long COVID estimates will include infection until end of Dec, so including the first two wks after omicron became dominant. There are clear increases in prevalence being seen already.🧵
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My daughter has asthma. She has an 'underlying health condition'. Her life is full of joy and wonder & she is loved by many. What value do you put on her life?
How many 'children with underlying conditions' dying is ok? How many being orphaned is ok?
Put a number to it. Go on.
🔴 Only six healthy children with no underlying health conditions died as a direct result of catching the coronavirus during a 12-month window, NHS analysis has revealed
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A thread about how privilege shapes individual response to threats - with denial among the privileged impacting the less privileged. I think perhaps how you respond to threats around you has a lot to do with your life experience, sense of security & appetite for reality🧵
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I really thought that perhaps omicron would wake people up to the fact that 'living with' this virus isn't really going to be possible - unless we accept mass death & suffering, and develop an understanding that we need globally coordinated progressive suppression. 🧵
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Let me see -
I've managed Malaria, Dengue, Chikungunya, HIV, influenza, scrub typhus, Japanese encephalitis, Kala Azar, mucormycosis, in India on the frontline, and done research on HIV and influenza, just to name a few.
How about you, Allyson?
Prof Paul Hunter has over 30 years experience in communicable disease control, infectious diseases and public health. Now just remind me how many communicable disease outbreaks have
@Zubhaque
and
@dgurdasani1
managed over the last 30 years?
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When you hear masks conflated with restrictions, remember: this is the govt narrative not the publics. They said masks were restrictive, shielding was cowering. To many of us, masks are closely linked with our freedoms, because they mean we can move in society feeling much safer.
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Strongly recommend reading this doc from SAGE on virus evolution released today. Alongside several scenarios, it assesses the risk of variants emerging that lead to 'vaccine failure' as 'almost certain' & recommends controlling transmission to avert this. This is a stark warning.
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I finally got infected and tested positive last Tue. It's been a rough wk. Not sure where I picked it up- it was following a flight so may have been during the flight or at the airport (didn't remove FFP3 at any point, except for ID) - or perhaps outdoors swimming. I don't know.
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*1 in 10* people SARS-CoV-2 positive in London on the 19th December as per the ONS update today. It's hard to believe, but this is the prevalence of infection in London. Please be careful, and limit social contact, take all precautions - we've never seen infection rates so high.
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Just became aware of a vulnerable person admitted in hospital on a regular ward alongside someone who is COVID-19 infected. Some hospitals are no longer even isolating COVID-19 patients - I don't know if this is down to bed pressure, but this really risks the lives of patients.
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There's nothing remotely superior/developed about trying to 'tech' our way out of the pandemic with vaccines, therapeutics & testing while ignoring basic public health measures. Masks, ventilation, good contact tracing, support with isolation all important. Every layer matters.🧵
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I find that people find it hard to put a name to this when it's a brown person perpetuating violence against ethnic minorities. Let's be clear- it's racism. And brown people can be racist too. And she's been put deliberately in this role to enact racist policies (as Patel was).
‘I would love to be having a front page of The Telegraph with a plane taking off to Rwanda. That’s my dream. That’s my obsession’ Home Secretary Suella Braverman
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Ok, given the anti-vaxx sentiment for childhood vaccination of 5-11 year olds is in full flow, thought some helpful facts might help debunk myths and provide factual information around this. Here goes...
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Stages of COVID denial:
Cases have levelled off
Stop fear mongering!
Cases increasing
R just above 1 - relax- we're ok.
Accelerating exponential rises
It's a casedemic - few deaths
Hospitals reaching capacity
We could've never predicted this
New variants of concern
Who knew?
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I can't begin to describe how angry I feel that a highly transmissible, more severe variant, with significant escape from vaccines was not only allowed to enter the country, but allowed to spread while our govt removed mitigations & minimised the risks posed by this. 🧵
Significant loss of antibody neutralisation vs live B.1.617.2 SARS-CoV-2 variant (-5.8x, akin to B.1.351) in
@TheCrick
/
@UCLHresearch
Legacy study of 250 (!) Pfizer-BioNTech 1/2-dose vaccinees, out today
@TheLancet
, by
@dremmacbw
,
@MaryYiWeiWu
et al. 1/n
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When the govt inevitably has to lockdown, always remember that we really didn't need to go into the omicron crisis (which we had weeks to plan for) with 50,000 cases a day of delta and a severely stretched NHS.
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Our GP surgery displays a sign: 'Masks Encouraged: we treat many patients who are immunocompromised, including cancer patients. Please where a mask to protect them & yourself'. Next to the sign are N95s provided. Every time I walk into reception, no one's masked except me. Why?
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It's been >2 yrs now. Can the media actually start judging the credibility of 'experts' on their track records, at least now? Or are they going to keep platforming 'experts' who've been wrong on almost everything they've said so far, in the hope that this time they'll be right?
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If you're the health secretary and making decisions about risk-benefit of different policies - looking at health and economy & *not* factoring in the impact of long COVID at a point when millions are affected - 400,000 suffering for more than a year- you should resign.
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1 in 5 patients who have COVID-19 in hospital likely acquired it *in hospital*. This is unacceptable in a place full of vulnerable patients. Why did many trusts rush to remove mask mandates from hospitals? And why haven't high-grade masks been introduced in these settings still?
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Note to those reporting on vaccination levels. From a herd immunity perspective, what matters is the proportion of *the population* vaccinated rather than the proportion of *adults*. Children exist & while policy-makers may be blind to infection among them, the virus isn't.
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Beware of media/political false narratives that anyone concerned about 19th July opening is 'pro-lockdown'. The govt, has conveniently framed policy as 'lockdown' vs 'open-up', when many countries have kept people safe without needing long-term restrictions.🧵
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Let's be clear- we don't just need masks, ventilation and other mitigations just because of omicron. We've always needed these alongside vaccination even with delta. Each of these forms a layer of protection. The messaging that we should rely on only one layer was always wrong.
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