Kevin C. Smith, CFA
@crescatkevin
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Hedge fund manager: global macro, long/short equity, activist metals. Wage-price spirals are not transitory. https://t.co/ptnKKXA96X
Denver, Colorado
Joined May 2012
Has Nvidia, along with the rest of the “Magnificent 7,” the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500, already peaked for the current business cycle? It’s a bold proposition, but certainly possible in my view. October 29 of this year may well mark that turning point. Nvidia’s cash flow
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Crescat's Live Market Call - December 19th, 2025 Commentary
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Join us LIVE at 2:00 PM ET for this week’s Special Edition Market Call. Founder & CIO @crescatkevin will review Crescat’s standout 2025 performance and discuss expectations heading into 2026. https://t.co/E8ztxSafNk
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Full Self-Driving Supervised has many times more driving experience than any human driver It's trained on >100 years of data & collectively experiences a lifetime of driving scenarios every 10 minutes
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Sitka Gold (TSXV: SIG) signs a contract for up to 60,000 m of diamond drilling in 2026 at its flagship RC Gold Project in Yukon. This will be the largest drill program to date at RC Gold, targeting expansion at Rhosgobel, Blackjack, and Eiger within the Clear Creek Intrusive
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Kirkland Lake Discoveries (TSXV: KLDC) to acquire the Mirado Gold Project, adding ~442 koz of historical inferred gold (10.6 Mt at 1.29 g/t) to the portfolio via an all-share deal. Asset sits 15 km south of KL West with limited drilling below 150 m and untested IP targets at
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This is my favorite macro chart of the decade. It shows - almost to the DAY - when one macro era ended and another began. The Chinese Leverage cycle was replaced by the US Profligacy cycle. Both were begun and ended by geomacro factors, not some macroeconomic fairy.
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Sleigh the season with the most personal gift around. Get them a Cameo video!
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$OWL has reportedly walked away from funding $ORCL planned $10B, 1GW Michigan data center for OpenAI after talks stalled. The project is now in financing limbo as lenders push tougher terms amid concerns over Oracle’s rising AI data center spend & $100B+ in net debt.
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Has Nvidia, along with the rest of the “Magnificent 7,” the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500, already peaked for the current business cycle? It’s a bold proposition, but certainly possible in my view. October 29 of this year may well mark that turning point. Nvidia’s cash flow
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From the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey: - Investors have the lowest cash allocation in history, - The highest sentiment since July 2021, - And the highest allocation to stocks + commodities since February 2022.
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NEW POST: ‘A Weakening Earnings Foundation Leaves The Market Increasingly Fragile’
thefelderreport.com
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning. LINK Eric...
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NEW: Luke Gromen says that he reduced his Bitcoin portfolio substantially at $95,000 and thinks it’s going a lot lower. - Risk of quantum computing - Not making new highs vs gold - Lots of selling from whales - Charts broke down 6 weeks ago - Believes 4 year cycle is playing out
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🚨$600 OFF Garmin R50 SIG Golf Simulator Packages! R50 is the all-in-one simulator with a 10" touchscreen, pro-grade club & ball data, and access to 43,000+ virtual courses.
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$ORCL bond holders now sit on 9% of unrealized losses on $18 billion of debt issued just this September with the bonds falling to “junk” rating as CDS jump from 1.58 on December 9th to 1.71 December 12, now matching its highest number since the Great Recession. Oracle has made
bloomberg.com
Get caught up.
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If you ask me, 2026 has the potential to mark a major inflection point for commodities. Gold has already led the way, and what we’re seeing now appears to be the early stages of a much broader move across resource markets — one that could significantly benefit from what looks
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Gold is approaching new highs again. The Fed is officially cornered, and an ultra-dovish stance has essentially become unavoidable at this point, in my opinion. Powell openly acknowledged a weakening labor market, dismissed any possibility of rate hikes, moved ahead with
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It's not about being ready someday, it's about being ready every day. Train at home with your own personal VR shooting simulator.
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Rackla Metals ($RAK.V) reports 10.5m @ 2.56 g/t Au in hole G25-009 at the Grad Property, including 1.5m @ 8.45 g/t Au. This is the strongest intercept of the 2025 campaign as drilling continues along the intrusive sediment contact near the BiTe Zone in the Tombstone Gold Belt.
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New Found Gold (TSXV: NFG | NYSE: NFGC) reports strong infill drill results from the Monte Carlo Zone at its 100%-owned Queensway Gold Project in Newfoundland. Highlights include 22.4 g/t Au over 4.75 m, 25.5 g/t Au over 2.70 m, and 6.59 g/t Au over 12.2 m, confirming continuity
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PJX Resources (TSX.V: PJX) reports drilling that intersected a thick zone of zinc-lead-silver mineralization with Sullivan-style alteration at the Dewdney Trail Property in the historic Sullivan Mining Camp, southern BC. Results point to a large Sedex-style mineralizing system
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So the Fed is now buying Treasuries again. $40 billion of bills a month...@FTAlphaville covers it well. And with a sense of humor - Sure John LOL. And we have a "new" acronym to learn RMPs - Reserve Management Purchases. The last line of the article is notable. “However,
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Every tech revolution—from steam engines to smartphones—needed more energy. AI will be no different. The real question isn’t whether AI will grow—it’s how we’ll power it.
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FireFox Gold ($FFOX.V) expands the Mustajärvi East Zone with one of its best holes yet: 25MJ005 returned 12.4m @ 13.75 g/t Au from 37.9m, 3.75m @ 19.65 g/t from 99.85m, and 5.7m @ 17.71 g/t from 217m. All four new holes hit gold, extending high-grade mineralization as the 10,000m
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