DeCarleyTrading.com
@carleygarner
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Commodity Broker/Analyst. Author of several futures/options books. Contributor- @BloombergTV , @MadMoneyonCNBC , & @TheStreet *High risk of loss in futures!
Las Vegas Nevada
Joined January 2009
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20 years ago today, I worked my first shift as a commodity broker. It was 12 hours of "smiling and dialing". It was not glamorous and it definitely wasn't what I had envisioned for myself right out of college armed with two degrees with a Magna Cum Laude asterisk. It was hard; I
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Does anyone else watch the markets on their fridge while they cook? 😀😀📈📉📉📈
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According to the COT Report, large speculators are holding the largest net short futures position in the E-mini S&P 500 since 2007. Either we get a repeat of the financial crisis, or we see a melt-up as the shorts unwind their position. Which will it be?
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We are only aware of one other instance in which speculators in the futures markets were as aggressively short the 10-year note futures as they are today. In fact, according to the latest COT Report (Commitments of Traders) issued by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading
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I pinched myself, it was real. 😀 My 10 year old self could have never imagined this journey. Filming Mad Money on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange is something I'll never forget.
@jimcramer
has been a great mentor, role model, and friend. I can't thank him enough for his
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My baby was born 16 years ago today. DeCarley Trading opened its phone lines on August 1, 2008, on the eve of the global financial crisis. It was probably several weeks later that we actually received an incoming phone call, but our outbound call log was embarrassingly long.
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@LasVegasLocally
Running trails with mountain backdrops...the less seen side of Las Vegas. 😀👌👍
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One of the best perks of being a commodity broker is receiving gifts from the farms and ranches of clients. 🐮🐄😋
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High commodity prices always lure supply...Every. Single. Time. Be careful out there, friends.
#Commodities
#commoditymarkets
#energy
#energyfutures
#AGS
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I was 45 years old when I met my sister for the first time. 😁😁😁😎
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Some of you saw the eclipse, but did anyone see the crescent shadows?
#eclipse
#solareclipse
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March natural gas futures are expiring today (which can distort prices). If we get some follow-through buying early next week, this rally can be considered real.
#natgas
#naturalgas
#Commodities
#futures
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I checked climbing the Sydney Harbour Bridge off of my bucket list. ✔️🪣📝🤩🤩🤩
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If you caught my Bloomberg hit today,
@TheChartress
mentioned a chart I had previously shared with her suggesting that 3500 in the S&P was in play (monthly trendline). This is that chart. For now, we are focused on the 4700 area with the weekly trendline near 4100, but if the
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We sent this to clients last night. The next few days will be critical for financial markets. Read more here -
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6 years ago today, I brought my favorite beagle home. 24 hours later, we learned she had parvovirus (usually lethal and expensive to treat). She survived several days of isolation, IVs, and dropping 70% of her weight. Franki recovered to be a shockingly large & stout beagle. 🐕🐾
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We received quite a bit of blowback last month when we suggested $72.00 oil was probable. Now that we are here, we are going to throw out the $66.00 level. The selling has been too fast (seasonals don't turn for another 2 to 3 weeks), too far ($72.00 was on our Bingo card, but
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I appreciate and am humbled by the positive feedback we've received for my newest book, Trading Commodity Options with Creativity. Hopefully,
@LanTurner
didn't say these things just because we are friends. :) More info/reviews here -
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16 years ago today we took a large leap of faith...HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO DeCarley Trading! It's been a wild ride but I wouldn't change a thing. I talked about our story on a soon-to-be-released episode of the
@AgBull
Podcast with Tommy Grasafi. I'll post a link when available.
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THIS. Read it again. The only way to grow is to step outside of your comfort zone. I almost dropped out of college because it was required that I take a speaking course. As an adult, my first public speaking event involved shaking, voice cracking, and freezing (like the Mitch
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One of the best parts of traveling overseas is Nando's. Why hasn't this chain caught on in the US?
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If trading commodities were easy, everyone would do it. We've created a collection of books aimed at shortening the learning curve with real-life examples, tough lessons, and simplified explanations of trading strategies. See all the fuss is about here :)
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I might regret the decision, but I'm shifting my long-term investment portfolios mostly away from equities. This is not investment advice....but when things feel too good to be true, they often are. ⚠️⚠️ 🤞🤞🚩🚩
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This is my "Bill Gates garage" pic. It was taken in mid-2008; the beginning of the DeCarley Trading journey. We started in a small room in a small house with little more than a dream and motivation. (1 of 3)
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When you reach the age that calls for modifying your exercise routine, there will be signs. 🤣 In my 30s, a speeding car, a lane closure, a construction cone, and heat exhaustion wouldn't have fazed me. But in my 40s...🫠🥴🤪😄 On the bright side, I'm getting a new bike!
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When you want to understand the latest technology but you just don't.
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It isn't a complete trip to the big Apple without blowing out the arteries with a pastrami sammy.
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If you're feeling anxious about life, money, politics, etc., go outside. Get some sun; walk, jog, hike, or bike. There's a whole community of people trying to live happy and healthy lives who are waiting to welcome you with a smile and a wave. It's good for the soul. 😋🙂🫶
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My regular waiter at breakfast, Fernando, noticed the S&P charts on my laptop and became excited. He has been working hard educating himself on how to make his hard-earned money work for him. It was an awesome conversation. 🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽
#investinyourself
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What is everyone doing this weekend? I'm hiking this rock formation (Angel's Landing in Zion National Park). Don't worry; there is a chain! 😃😃🙃🙃😏😏
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The yield curve is still inverted, but it's been overlooked for some reason.
As a young adult who had just broken into the middle class in 2005/2006, I was euphoric about my net worth. The financial crisis quickly made me aware that wealth on paper is merely a mirage unless you
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"Carley Garner has written the new 'bible' of futures trading" -
@Dan_Dicker
#crudeoil
#commodities
#futurestrading
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I'm seeing quite a few posts on my feed complaining about high-interest rates. Learn to feed off the system rather than letting the system feed off of you. The last automobile I financed was in 2005, and I paid it off in about 6 months. I haven't had a mortgage in 7 years. Is it
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If you haven't tried hiking, I recommend giving it a go. Hiking is better than any pharmaceutical anti-depressent, it's a confidence booster, it burns stress and calories simultaneously, and the views are amazing. It's a productive way to find peace in a less than peaceful world.
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It is unfair to the rest of us that a person this smart, witty, sweet, and beautiful is allowed to walk the earth. We don't share any DNA (obvi, see above) but she is my daughter anyway. Congrats on receiving your Master's degree Mackenzie Nelson !!
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I'm worried, y'all. The stock market is rewarding risk takers and punishing those with diversified portfolios.
Making money with haphazard risk management and keeping it are two different things. I believe it is time to tap the brakes, not hit the gas. I
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After seeing the reaction (read the comments) to this analysis (which happens to be mine), I'd like to revise my analysis...Bitcoin is going to zero. 😂😂😂
.
@JimCramer
urged investors not to let bitcoin's recent gains tempt them into buying crypto.
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Every day is National Pet Day for Franki...so it doesn't excite her.
#beaglelife
#beagles
#beaglesofinstagram
#nationalpetday
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I'm going to carry this with me into 2023. Happy New Year! 👇👇👇🔥🔥🔥
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When you notice natural gas futures are up but you don't want to jinx it by acknowledging it.
#Commodities
#natgas
#futures
#dogs
#dogstagram
#dogsofinstagram
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@MomAngtrades
I've been saying this. A recession will reset our economy and mindset. The fat needs to be cut to get back to efficiency and prosperity.
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This is NOT a postcard...just a stunning cellphone pic.
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We are closing in on 30 years of laughs, which is impressive for two girls in their 20s.
#besties
*Besties, but there is a list... PM
@toriallredkelly
for the official ranking.
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In my view, $2.00 natural gas is synonymous with $130.00 crude oil. In the short run, there is no limit to the chaos of commodity prices. But in the long run, the math has to make sense. mean reversion back into a "natural" trading range is likely.
#decarleytrading
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Today's dollar rally is slightly obscene, yet risk assets and commodities are ignoring it. Something is broken....The natural inter-market correlations are misbehaving (the higher dollar should be working against stocks and oil almost as much as it is gold). Be careful, we could
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Happy birthday to the most beautiful, smart, and funny woman I know. She is 49 (in dog years) and aging like fine wine. 🎉🎉🥳🐾🐶
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Markets are self-correcting; this one will be, too. Commodities (copper, grains, natural gas) have been screaming DISINFLATION, and I am starting to see cracks in housing prices, too. Are we setting up for mean reversion to the trendline? We think so. Will it take a recession to
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Is
@SnoopDogg
trying to tell us something about corn? I'm kinda starting to feel short-term bullish after seeing this on my Insta reel this morning.
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The commodity markets are screaming deflation....not inflation. Noted. ✔️
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Is my coffee machine trying to tell me something? 🤔😆 I'll put December coffee futures on my watch list.
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I received this feedback today. I am not sharing to brag; quite the opposite. I was taken aback and humbled at the thought of being seen in that way. Last weekend a few of us were laughing about how this business requires us to be dead inside because the criticism that comes with
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It wasn't that long ago that I received disparaging DMs regarding our positive stock market analysis. Yet, here we are! Unemployment report Fridays are known for price squeezes; next week will be telling. If prices hold above the weekly pivot line, the melt-up is just getting
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I am cleaning the garage today. Yuck...but don't worry. I have help.
#beagles
#beaglesofinstagram
#beaglelover
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Despite the long squeeze in some commodities...if the dollar continues to get crushed, it will eventually be bullish for EVERYTHING. Stay tuned, commodity bulls.
#USDollar
#Dollar
#currencies
#commodities
#futurestrading
#Futures
#trading
#markets
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If you are in Newport, RI...watch out for the wedding crashers.
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@jimiuorio
No..everybody does not have a friend that has been blackmailed with nude photos. 🤣
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I'm experimenting with inside out omelets (I'm not sure if they have a name but they should). The idea is to put the cheese in the pan first and cover with a lid so the eggs and ingredients are surrounded by a crispy layer of cheese. It's better than it looks. 😆😆😋😋 🥚🍳
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This is my annual reminder to buy your annual limit of Series I bonds for 2024 (10k). If it seems too good to be true, it is because it is. It is a form of a government handout available to everyone regardless of income, but few take advantage of the program. These are
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I know jobs report Fridays are not to be trusted, but if we can get through Monday's session without giving gains back...there is reason to believe the S&P could made another run at 4000!
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We must be willing to leave the echo chamber and expose ourselves to uncomfortable opinions. That's where the truth lies.
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"You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino, and everyone else is boozing." - Warren Buffet
#stocks
#stockmarket
#SNP
#investment
#investing
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I can check hiking Angel's Landing off my bucket list and it was better than I could have imagined. I'll post pics and videos from the top when I get a chance. They are stunning!! 😎🤌😋🫶
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In a former life, I was part of a state championship team. 😀 Nobody gave us a chance to win, but we found a way. 🏆
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Maybe things aren't as bad as they seem. 😁😁
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I have no idea what is about to happen to me, but I'm ready and here for it. 😁😁😁
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Chicago is beautiful. The Riverwalk is safe, clean, and amazing. Get there. 😀
#chi
#Chicago
#thechi
#windycity
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People believe what they want to believe, not what is in front of them. OK...bye.
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Markets can rally even when fundamental headlines are at their worst. In March 2020, the indices turned on a dime and rallied WHILE MOST BUSINESSES IN THE COUNTRY WERE FORCED TO CLOSE THEIR DOORS. Let that sink in. The news cycle and price action can be disconnected. Buckle up 😃
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I am not a crypto expert and have no skin in the game, but I've seen what ETFs have done to the futures markets. All I can say is "Good luck with that". Some markets aren't intended for mass speculation because they cannot absorb the liquidity that comes with mainstream
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I hope you were able to catch
@MadMoneyOnCNBC
last night.
@jimcramer
featured some of our commodity market analysis. You can check out some of our charts and comments here. This is a newsletter that was emailed to our brokerage clients on the topic:
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We have become too soft. According to the media and social memes, the markets were in complete disarray yesterday. Even after the selling, the S&P 500 was up 10% on the year (in August). I don't think we are prepared for a legitimate bear market; the punch bowl has us drunk on
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I know the session is young and things can go South (if so, we think 3775 is the place to consider bullish speculations for those who are flat), but the world was short and bearish coming in. AND it is the Quadruple Witching week. That's a recipe for a short squeeze. Stay safe!
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I work hard so this one can lay back and relax. This is what a day in the office looks like for Franki. 🐕💻🖱💰
#workhardplayhard
#beagles
#beaglelover
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Let me get this straight, Nouriel Roubini isn't bearish? 2024 is setting up to be the Twilight Zone🤔🤔🤔🤔
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Freedom isn't free. It is beautiful. Thank you to those who have sacrificed for our right to live and think freely. 🇺🇸 🗽 📷 BTW, I took this photo with my cell phone yesterday near Cathedral Rock on Mount Charleston just 20 miles from my home in Las Vegas. 😍
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In the commodity business, no matter where you are, the only time zones that matter are Eastern and Central, with Greenwich Mean coming in at a distant third. I have been working for six hours, and it is still pitch black outside. Sydney life is cray. 🙃😆
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If you can make it to Mount Charleston before the snow melts, DO IT! Mary Jane Falls is flowing, and the snow caps are beautiful 😍💦💦⛰️🏔🚶♀️
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I'm back in Las Vegas and the view is as stunning as it was in Sydney. 😍🇺🇸🎰
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