I am deeply grateful and honoured to have been asked to give this year's Reith Lectures by the BBC. The title of the series is 'Our Democratic Future', which is no simple topic but I hope to do it justice. A v quick thread on details. 1/n https://t.co/WL9pqAMmCQ

The story we're all telling ourselves is that British politics is becoming more European - fracturing into a host of micro-parties. But what if we're actually becoming more American? (1/?)

Here for example is @benwansell's map of voting intention by occupation. Big left-wing clump (Lab and Lib indistinguishable!). Big culturally right-wing grouping, with Tories less right on culture, more on econ and Reform vice versa. Big gap between. https://t.co/kJaefalpOW

I was really struck by this chart showing drop off in newspaper circulation just since 2019. Obviously no surprise it's happening but it's stark seeing it visually.

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NEW: The US military struck the boat on September 2 _four_ times: twice to kill the 11 people who were on board, and twice more to sink the boat, a US official tells me.

Huge from the PM. Starmer accepts the Fingleton Review *and* pledges to extend it to other infrastructure: data centres, railways, tramways, towns, labs, and more. Massive, and a big shift from the Treasury's equivocation. Implementation will be a big battle, but we can win.

Deregulation by central government like has been backed today by the Prime Minister on Nuclear has so much greater potential for increasing growth than anything we've seen in recent budgets beyond devolution of power (which is in itself deregulation by central government).

@benwansell For the headline point, yes! But I found it quite surprising how households in the 6th decile have gone from being net contributors to net beneficiaries. The 7th barely breaks even too

Going to insist on compulsory Meltzer-Richard model training for journalists if they aren't careful

As someone who criticised the government back in January for not having a clear growth strategy it is good to see Torsten set out in plain language what the govt’s strategy is and how it hangs together. This is much better and clearer communication.

This is almost exactly what you would expect with almost any mean income higher than the median income and a flat tax (which we don't have!). This is just maths!

Something to this I think… Badenoch ending the year with some momentum (like Polanski) while others are in decline or stagnant.

The Manchester Conference speech gave a boost to the party …..but just the party What it did for Kemi herself is now on display. You don’t like? Fine - I suspect you’d never vote that way anyway - But the nerves are gone, she’s grown in the role and that’s where it started

David Miles of the Office for Budget Responsibility has told Bloomberg that the OBR formally informed the Treasury and Chancellor of the £31bn tax bonanza, that completely wiped out the £16bn deficit from the productivity downgrade, in its round three forecast on 31 October.

Rachel Reeves's Budget will hit those on middle and higher incomes the hardest, while those on lower incomes will benefit This is ultimately Reeves's pitch to voters - in challenging circumstances she says she has prioritised those on benefits and low earners But as YouGov and

Anyway my understanding from insiders is that the Home Office Spads are all geniuses who clearly thought this through and didn't end up massively overdoing a policy in order to get through the week. Thanks lads!

I might also soft-pedal some of these changes in the 'consultation period' as I realise I might inadvertently have steered the super-tanker so far around it has hit a cliff. 200,000 a year net migration would likely mean a declining overall population...

If I were a cunning Labour minister, I would seek to take full credit for this enormous collapse, almost entirely under their period in government. I would carefully avoid acknowledging that the 'Boriswave' was followed by the 'Cleverly Crash' lest I end up with him as LOTO.

So we are already back to the levels of migration of the early 2010s and declining faster... let's hope all those new restrictions, based on previous higher numbers, don't make Britain massively unattractive to those migrants the government DOES wish to attract.

The soft crash of London housing is really under explored imo