Blake Shaffer 📊🇺🇦
@bcshaffer
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prof @EconCalgary working on climate policy and electricity markets. Former energy trader. Probably making a chart... Co-director ,
Calgary
Joined January 2012
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Last Seen Profiles
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📢CALL FOR PAPERS📢
Very pleased to announce the 3rd Annual Electricity Camp in the Rockies, May 22-24, in Banff!
If you're interested in presenting, please email me your extended abstract or paper by Feb 15.
Attendee registration will begin in March.
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Forget 🇨🇦 dairy, the real scandal is cell phone plans.
In 🇫🇷, I just got:
- unlimited calls
- unlimited texts
- 60GB (!!) data
For €9 per month 😲
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Interesting political choice to pay the 20-30% unvaccinated, rather than encourage vaccination by rewarding all Albertans who do the right thing (including the 70-80% who already have) with a vaccine passport giving them access to restaurants, bars, events.
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The Premier just blamed a "missed forecast on solar" --- at 6am WHEN IT WAS DARK --- as the reason for today's alert.
SMFH.
If you're blaming an energy shortfall on the sun not rising ahead of celestial certainties, you've lost the plot.
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I cannot believe we are closing schools before casinos and bars.
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The scale of the economic damage of the BC floods is starting to sink in.
Easily the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. Won’t even be close.
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“Alberta will get over half the Canada Pension Plan assets, vote Leave!”
Where have I seen this before?
h/t
@DuaneBratt
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Hands up if you really don’t care what your passport looks like but just wish you could do the entire application securely online without having to wait in line at a Service Canada office…
🙋
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It shouldn't need to be said, but it's absolutely crazy that Albertans are going to "give oil and gas companies a tax break for meeting their legal obligations to clean up old well sites". Especially in an era of ballooning profits.
#ableg
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Can visibly see where the emergency alert came out. Load dropped pretty suddenly around 18:45.
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Teachable math moment :)
Example:
If I earn $100k and it goes up by 3%, i add $3k of gross income
If my taxes, previously $50k, go up by 3%, my taxes payable rise by $1.5k
=> My net income rises by $1.5k
If anything this report is saying the average tax rate went down slightly
Why is Justin Trudeau punishing Canadians’ success? According to
@FraserInstitute
, Canadian families earned an extra 3.3% last year, but taxes were up by 3.1%. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals taxed away 94 cents out of every extra dollar earned. Canadians are missing out.
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Here's a zoomed in version. Load fell about 150MW in the minutes after the alert went out, has continued to fall rapidly since.
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This piece by Danielle Smith does an absolute disservice to public discourse.
It displays a fundamental lack of understanding of the difference b/w energy and capacity when thinking about resource adequacy in electricity markets, and is built on a straw dog argument. Thread...
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I still think it’s ridiculous that my riding, Calgary-Elbow, was vacant before this MedHat by-election and will remain so long after. It’s not right to selectively call by-elections.
#ableg
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Imagine being a Food Professor(tm) and thinking milk in Canada cost $10 per L (1kg=1L).
You’re comparing the $/kg of butterfat in 🇨🇦 to $/kg of milk in the 🇺🇸, Sylvain.
Comparable $/kg butterfat in US is $9.30CAD. Not a huge difference to Canada, certainly not 17x…
Canadian Milk Farm Price of 10.22 CAD/kg is higher than the equivalent U.S. Milk Farm Price of 0.4342 USD/kg.
Canadian industrial milk is about 17 times more expensive than in the U.S.
17 times...
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Many have asked: why are my AB power bills so high?
So Dave Brown, Andrew Eckert and I decided to dig in to the answer. In forthcoming research, and highlighted by today's Policy Trends piece, we broke down the factors behind Alberta's recent run-up in power prices.
Thread...
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Hi Steve!
The writer (me👋) has a PhD in empirical econometrics and isn’t playing a game but rather trying to alert to potential and plausible selection bias in the unknown cases. Even
@jkenney
drew attention to the unknown numbers today. [1/2]
It's dismaying how it's become an academic parlour game to second-guess the chief medical officer of health.
The writer simply assumes the current untraced cases are sharply different from the traced ones, based on his own speculation and a NYT story on US cities in March-April.
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Just thinking out loud, but if i was in charge of a province with the highest Covid case rate in Canada, I'm not sure I would deride the Atlantic provinces' efforts as "blunt".
More like "effective" and "life-saving" and "unequivocally what I should have done".
But hey 🤷♂️
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Deservedly damning piece.
Alberta Acted Like COVID Was Over. Now Its Health Care System 'On Brink of Collapse'
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Some thoughts on a wild night for Alberta power yesterday…
[thread]
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I’m starting to feel like a pandemic isn’t a great time to be led by Libertarian ideologues
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Just livid at the mix of incompetence and willful negligence that got us here.
The reckless rush to remove restrictions (for a few days of rodeo) should never be forgiven.
1/N
New COVID-19 ICU numbers from
@AHS_media
following the long weekend. 144 patients in ICU with COVID (up from 118 Friday) There are currently 221 ICU patients in total and 255 beds available (82 new beds have been added)
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Still trying to wrap my head around this.
It’s anti-business. It casts a pall on renewable investment in the province.
It’s anti property rights. All deals are done on private land, privately negotiated.
And it runs counter to AB’s need to decarbonize its electric system.
🙃
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Alberta, where we are apparently going to put a moratorium on new renewables and consider bonding requirements for their reclamation liabilities, while at the same time pursuing a plan to taxpayer-fund (
#rstar
) the cleanup of oil and gas reclamation 🙃
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"But what if we had one million EVs??? 😱😱"
Let's put 1M EVs in Alberta in context...
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Enough is enough. It’s time the Government of Alberta put an end to this $30 million per year debacle. In a time of budget cuts, there are so many opportunities to better direct these funds. This is hurting, not helping Alberta.
cc:
@jkenney
I apologize for some of the tweets in
@CDNEnergyCentre
Twitter thread this am
The tone did not meet CEC's standard for public discourse
This issue has been dealt with internally
There will be a substantive response to the NYT article w/in our mandate of challenging inaccuracies
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If companies aren’t getting funded because banks think they’re likely to go bankrupt and leave a pile of liabilities behind, maybe those companies shouldn’t be funded.
[1/3]
Alberta seeks to lessen financial hit of Supreme Court ruling on orphan wells
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I’m so old I remember when we were clapping for healthcare workers every 7pm to thank them for risking their lives fighting Covid for us. I guess the new thing is threatening them? 🙃
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So if i'm understanding this correctly, the Alberta government's plan to get around currently draft regulations that if legislated won't bind for another 12 years is to destroy private sector investor confidence by pitching a crown corp to nationalize the sector's assets?
#ableg
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Taking a closer look at the AB power supply page and noticed solar just surpassed 1000MW. Up from only 15MW 2 yrs ago. An amazing shift.
To get a sense of how quickly this is happening, the AESO long term outlook ref case had 1000MW to be hit in 2041.
It was beat by 19 years.
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"This proves wind and solar are useles. F&%k JT!"
Wind and solar are cheap *raw energy* resources. Providing more and more of AB's annual energy. They are not peaking capacity resources... and that's ok. That's why we have a *portfolio* of resources.
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“Ms. Schulz said while in Germany she will discuss with government officials and industry executives how Alberta can best incentivize geothermal investments.”
I have an idea: don’t ban them 🤪
#ableg
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It’s time for AB to deploy smart meters and pay consumers who are willing to be flexible. Not “blackout flexibility”, but some appliances in their home. This is where the future of electricity is going; cheaper than most supply solutions. And it can be optional.
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Final (unofficial) results.
NDP needed 2611 votes across 6 ridings to win a majority. Over 1,000,000 registered voters did not vote.
Regional splits are stark. NDP sweep Edmonton. Split in Calgary. UCP dominates elsewhere.
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School’s been open for half a week and already 2 of my 3 kids classes have Covid cases 😕
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🙋how are we still “finalizing details”? Did pediatric vaccines come as a surprise? I’m struggling to understand why the booking protocol wasn’t immediately ready to go the moment Health Canada said it was approved.
I know many families are looking forward to hearing more about plans to open up vaccinations for children ages 5-11. We are finalizing details and will share information on Alberta’s roll-out at tomorrow’s media availability. You can pre-register at: (6/6)
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“Alberta has paused its pension campaign … because the public questions the validity of the calculations offered by the provincial government”
Turns out taking 53% of the CPP wasn’t seen as credible… 🤭
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To Dr. Hinshaw: resign.
You're responsible for public health and you failed us. The "science" behind your decision to remove restrictions was not miscalculated, it was not science.
You can't fail this badly and keep the public's trust. Sorry, but you need to resign.
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The decision to stop fluoridation in Calgary’s water remains one of the more infuriating, anti-science, decisions I’ve witnessed.
Fluoridation is one of the best benefit/cost public health interventions out there. Shame on YYC council for a terrible decision for our kids.
Researcher in
@UCalgaryMed
finds that children in Calgary are significantly more likely to have cavities than children in Edmonton, meaning children’s dental health is getting worse without community water fluoridation
#UCalgary
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@trevortombe
and I basically saying the same thing: it’s not a choice between fighting the virus and saving the economy. The economic cost of the virus is here with or without a lockdown. What’s crucial is getting spread under control.
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A reminder for tomorrow in Alberta…
Bill 1 (to give you a sense of its importance) makes it illegal to disrupt the operation of critical infrastructure. If this were a pipeline, charges would be laid.
Who else thinks hospitals are critical infrastructure?
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Alberta is still spending $30 million per year on an ineffective and more often than not embarrassing “energy war room”.
If today’s budget does indeed focus on cutting wasteful spending, the govt has no excuse but to start with shutting down the war room.
#ableg
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The Kenney years in Alberta were marked by a group of rude and bullying senior staffers who attacked the character—not the argument—of many academics and individuals who dared speak the truth against the govt line.
Crying shame to see that continue under new management.
#ableg
BREAKING: NDP partisan & alleged political scientist
@DuaneBratt
equates Facebook banning the Premier’s account w/ blocking a few disrespectful Twitter users - which virtually every politician of every party does to maintain a less hateful and toxic discussion feed. Insightful;)
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Kudos to
@DrewPAnderson
for confirming what most already surmised: that the renewables ban was politically driven and not at the request of "independent" agencies.
This will have adverse investment consequences for the foreseeable future.
#ableg
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Remember folks, when you’re called out for incredulously exclaiming Cdn milk costs 17x US price because you screwed up and mistook the price of butter for milk and never bothered to ask yourself if a 4L jug really cost $40, the most important thing to do is to launch ad hominems.
In response to individuals funded by the dairy industry, who may not always exhibit professionalism, challenging comparisons between Canadian and American farmgate milk prices, let's provide a straightforward analysis. The dairy sector's lack of transparency often complicates the
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My daughter’s cakemaking skills have gone exponential! 😊
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Some news...
I am thrilled, humbled and very proud to say that I am joining the
@UCalgary
department of economics and school of public policy as an 🚨assistant professor🚨 as of January 2020.
Looking forward to working with great colleagues and students!
Delighted that
@bcshaffer
is joining
@EconCalgary
and
@policy_school
. His research on
#electricity
markets and
#environment
is important for
#Alberta
and the world.
@sonyasavage
@UCalgary
. Great catch for us! Welcome Blake!
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Given the circumstances, I think we’ll eventually look back on Canada’s « first doses first » strategy to get broad coverage from initially scarce supply as among the best strategic decisions of the pandemic.
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We are ALL sick of the pandemic. But pretending it's over won't end it. Nor will half measures.
Sure we can throw a $100 bone, but it's also time for serious measures. Get vaxxed or stay home until Covid is truly over. It's (long past) time for vaccine passports in Alberta. /fin
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If only there was a way to schedule your EV charging for the overnight hours, after the alert was long over and the system was again in surplus (and even exporting)...
Like if there was a button on an app you could push or something...
BREAKING: Another home run from CBC. Is this parody?
@AndrewScheer
“While the Alberta govt asks people not to charge their electric cars due to the extreme cold straining the grid, CBC publishes this article. Brilliant.
$1.3 billion of your tax dollars ladies and gentlemen.
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New milestone in Alberta's power market, as we wean off coal. With the recent addition of Rattlesnake Wind to the grid, the total capacity of wind+solar (2605MW) is greater than coal capacity (2530). NG is the new elephant in the room at 10,166MW.
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To the politicians: you own this. Calling the pandemic "over" is part of the reason why many haven't rushed to get vaccinated these past few months.
You mocked those who were brave enough to cry foul on removing restrictions too early.
You were wrong.
You own this.
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Keep it going, Alberta! Daily cases down to 1150.
It turns out a combo of stronger restrictions, actually enforcing them, and more people getting vaccinated can in fact crush Covid :)
I am very much here for
#BestSummerEver
(or at least a good one!)
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First,
@theAESO
operators deserve a shout out. They managed the grid smoothly through a tense situation.
Also, HUGE shout out to the thermal fleet operators. Only 1 plant (Milner) tripped during this cold snap. That’s incredible performance given the conditions.
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And it’s not based on “speculation and a NYT article” but rather tracing logic and a peer-reviewed Nature article. If that’s not good enough, add CDC ()
We are all trying to help. No need to attack. My argument is reasonable and worthy of consideration.
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Our great national nightmare is over: Canada just passed the US for total doses per capita.
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Slowly at first, then all at once.
Coal power in Alberta starting to hit zero.
#abpower
#ableg
#energytwitter
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The team monitoring Calgary’s wastewater (💩) reached out to let me know their data is now updated to T-48 hours. Check out that drop!
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Second, the emergency alert looks to have triggered a 150MW response. That’s inline per capita with the 2100MW Cali got from a similar event in 2022. Well done, Albertans. This highlights the capability of demand flexibility but emergency alerts are not a sustainable solution.
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Alberta's daily Covid case chart is looking increasingly worrisome. Have we started down the 2nd wave re-opening path?
Instead of saying "we may need to" mandate masking, why not get ahead of it and do it now. Slow the spread and keep the recovery going.
Mask up, eh! 😷🚫🌊🌊
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"Your Y-axis is a crime!"
Do you ppl chart temperature with a Y-axis at 0 Kelvin? No, for time series line charts the relevant range is appropriate; bar charts require the 0 intercept.
Showing the large and near instant 150MW drop was important.
But here's your useless chart:
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Alberta’s been getting a lot of (deserved) bad press in national and international news of late.
Thrilled to see these two elected Mayors of our two largest cities 👏
(Oh, and fluoride is back 🥂)
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Hey Canada, something to take a little bit of pride in.
As of today, Canada is now
#1
out of 152 countries over a million pop in terms of share of people who have received a vaccine.
(Apologies to NatPo and Kinsella for omitting San Marino, Isle of Man, Guernsey…)
1/2
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Canada just passed the US for share of population *fully* vaccinated. The “bUt 2 dOsEs” crowd will need new a new narrative.
Still, at only 48% neither country is where it needs be, yet.
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There's been a lot of talk about renewables variability and the need for "baseload" in Alberta lately
As I teach my students, the notion of baseload is antiquated in a world with rapidly falling VRE costs
The new (electric) world is about cheap energy + flexible resources
1/n
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"Wait until we get 1 million EVs"
EV charging is possibly the easist electric demand to shift. Very flexible. See recent work here:
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“The carbon tax makes life unaffordable!”
- actually, coupled with the rebates it boosts income for most Cdn families, especially lower income
“The carbon tax is wealth redistribution!”
- 🤦🏼♂️
If you're arguing for the value of the carbon tax as a tool of wealth re-distribution, that's fine. I think, however, you may have identified the Conservatives' primary problem with it.
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“But officer, my average speed over my whole trip was close to the limit!”
This and the other tweets by Rachel Curran are callous attempts at minimizing the pain and suffering of Albertans today, caused by the foolish decision to end restrictions too early and react too late.
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Today the AB govt announced changes to the default "Regulated Rate Option", including a name change ("Rate of Last Resort!") and moving from monthly pricing to 2-year fixed price terms.
Some initial thoughts from someone who has followed this closely for a while (me, i mean me):
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I’m trying to imagine who looked at these data and said: “I think this would be best shown in a pie chart”
Here's a graph from AB Wildfire, which would seem to show that the 2023 wildfire burn season will likely enter the ten biggest fire years on record in the next day or two.
#yeg
#yyc
#ableg
#abwildfire
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We could have kept simple measures--indoor masking--to keep levels down and biz doors open while kids remain unvaccinated. Instead, Alberta threw it all away for "Best Summer Ever" and now here we are: runaway cases, rising hosps, just as unvaccinated kids re-enter classrooms.
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This report needs to come with a very loud caveat that their analysis relied on stale assumptions.
The study assumes wind costs of $118 per MWh.
Latest wind procurements in AB: $38 per MWh.
It's a backwards looking analysis that assumes no progress to argue for no progress.
A new report published Thursday says a move to convert Alberta's energy grid to renewable power would result in 'substantial costs' for taxpayers.
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"NUCLEAR!!!"
Only thing more reliable than nuclear power are the nuke bros on Twitter.
I'm all for it. Go build it.
But for now, wind+solar are cheap and deployable. Couple them with low capacity factor peakers+DR+storage for a low-cost low-GHG system. Add nukes, sure.
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As an Albertan, I'm embarrassed by this "inquiry" and furious at the $$$ spent on it. To have climate denialists and lobby groups feed this report is beyond the pale.
I thought the War Room was an embarrassing waste of money. This is next level.
#ableg
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Others like to blame the carbon tax. The Premier going so far as to say in his presser yesterday that high utility bills were the fault of Justin Trudeau's carbon tax and removing it would fix our ills.
But the Federal carbon tax doesn't even apply to power.
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A reminder: the NDP coal phase out was for 2030, which remains 7 years into the future.
Why did prices rise in Alberta the last couple years? The end of the 20-ye PPAs -> concentration of control -> change in offer behaviour
When asked about soaring utility rates in Alberta, Premier Danielle Smith says the NDP "wrecked" the province's power grid by phasing out coal too early.
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To be fair, it is a short term promotion. The usual price is €20 per month. Still, ridiculously cheap compared to what I pay back home. Vive la compétition!
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Your regular reminder, from Trevor here, that Alberta's deficit is largely a choice. If we matched the next lowest tax jurisdiction in Canada our revenue would be *$13 billion* higher, more than overcoming future deficits with even moderate spending restraint.
Spending will align with other large provinces by 2022/23 (roughly), yet a $10 billion deficit will remain that year, and more than $7.2b by 2023/24. This from
#ableg
Budget 2021 shows there's scope to raise revenue while remaining the lowest tax jurisdiction in Canada.
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So what explains the other $35/MWh, or nearly two-thirds of the price increase?
Markups.
Power companies raised their offer prices further above their marginal costs in 2021 as compared to 2020, leading to higher markups.
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Well this is new and something to celebrate, eh! 🇨🇦💉💪🥳
Explore more here:
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“I think the current measures we have in place are not likely to be sufficient to bring down our numbers, so if the goal is to bring our numbers down, we will need additional measures to be able to do that.”
Can’t get “if the goal is...” out of my head.
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Canada’s vaccine program firing on all cylinders right now.
Feds delivering, provs administering, and Cdns stepping up in droves to get the shot!
Over 436,000 reported today (NEW RECORD!!) and no sign of letting up.
Happy Friday 🇨🇦💉💪
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I suppose getting photographed with a *Texas mickey of Jameson* at the table for a work dinner will make it hard to argue that a "culture of excess drinking on the job" is not credible...
#ableg
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The parks file may be the biggest blunder of the UCP's term. It's sparked opposition and outrage from across the political spectrum. That the UCP felt it necessary to go on the defensive with a PR campaign highlights how bad this is for them.
A short thread:
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Working on a presentation. Despite being close to the material it still blows me away to see the pace of change like this.
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